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*** Official 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Oscar (1 Viewer)

Getting my last oak tree taken down tomorrow. So if worse comes to worse don't have to worry about a tree taking out my house. Man those tree guys make a killin. I must have spent 10 grand on trees in the 17 years I have lived in this house.  Well at least I am prepared for the season.  Here's hoping it remains quite for everyone.

 
rustycolts said:
Getting my last oak tree taken down tomorrow. So if worse comes to worse don't have to worry about a tree taking out my house. Man those tree guys make a killin. I must have spent 10 grand on trees in the 17 years I have lived in this house.  Well at least I am prepared for the season.  Here's hoping it remains quite for everyone.
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A good investment.  Oak trees aren't as bad as Pines.  Trees can be an issue, but they also provide wind breaks.  So many pine trees were lost during Hugo that everyone was afraid for years after that there was nothing to protect against the wind.

 
Mjolnirs said:
A good investment.  Oak trees aren't as bad as Pines.  Trees can be an issue, but they also provide wind breaks.  So many pine trees were lost during Hugo that everyone was afraid for years after that there was nothing to protect against the wind.
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Hey I noticed that you are a member SCV.  If you are you may find this an interesting read.  Just remember when it was written and by who. Anyway if you are a history buff you might enjoy it.

https://archive.org/stream/TheImmortalSixHundred_201605/The_Immortal_Six_Hundred_v3#page/n15

 
rustycolts said:
Getting my last oak tree taken down tomorrow. So if worse comes to worse don't have to worry about a tree taking out my house. Man those tree guys make a killin. I must have spent 10 grand on trees in the 17 years I have lived in this house.  Well at least I am prepared for the season.  Here's hoping it remains quite for everyone.
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Oak trees don't fail often, but when they do it's catastrophic.  They are so dense that they can just cut your house in half.  

 
culdeus said:
Oak trees don't fail often, but when they do it's catastrophic.  They are so dense that they can just cut your house in half.  
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Yep especially water oaks they are huge and fall easier.  Had one fall when Charlie came through took out my roof was lucky it didn't do more damage.

 
culdeus said:
Oak trees don't fail often, but when they do it's catastrophic.  They are so dense that they can just cut your house in half.  
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A bunch of oaks in our development went down during Irma . Every one due ti the 3 days of rain from the Noreaster we had before the storm. Saturated ground and entire root system showing

 
culdeus said:
Oak trees don't fail often, but when they do it's catastrophic.  They are so dense that they can just cut your house in half.  
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I've got three of them next to the house I am building in So. Fla. It's all block and concrete so hopefully it can withstand anything the next one brings...

 
Getting my one and only oak removed from the swale out front shortly.  Not worried about it doing damage to the house so much as the sidewalk, plumbing, telecom, electric, etc...Haply rainy day Labor Day in Florida all.

 
@NHC_Atlantic: Tropical Storm #Gordon has formed near the Upper Florida Keys, with maximum winds of 45 mph.  Tropical Storm Warnings are coming for portions of south Florida and the Keys in a Special Advisory to be issued by 9 am EDT (1300 UTC).   More: http://hurricanes.gov

 
Rain from Gordon started at about 3am and hasn't stopped yet. Pretty heavy and steady. We're at 3.1 inches and climbing. Not a whole lot of wind, maybe some 20+ MPH gusts here and there. 

 
Gordon projected to hit the Mississippi coast as a minor hurricane.  Though apparently only a few of the models support it getting that strength, could stay a tropical storm when it comes ashore.

 
Mjolnirs said:
Been out of computer access for about 48 hours, so, slow on this one.

Florence
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Hard to tell from that view and I know it’s early, look like it heads out to see from that view or I assume way too early to tell?

 
GregR said:
Gordon projected to hit the Mississippi coast as a minor hurricane.  Though apparently only a few of the models support it getting that strength, could stay a tropical storm when it comes ashore.
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Once it gets it in the warm Gulf, who knows. Definite rain event. Hopefully the forward speed keeps up and it doesn't stall. 

 
Arriving in Salvo NC on Saturday for a 2 week vacation.  Florence better stay the F away.  Not liking this change.  Come on, find that hole in the ridge and scoot north.

 
Invest 92L looking like it will become a tropical storm, nearing Puerto Rico in about a week. From what I heard sounds like it's a bigger threat to the Gulf if it stays weak and south of PR initially than if it strengthens and passes north of PR.

 
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Still more than a week away - wouldn't start hyping any individual model run until late in the weekend, at the earliest. Definitely bears watching though

 
The_Man said:
Still more than a week away - wouldn't start hyping any individual model run until late in the weekend, at the earliest. Definitely bears watching though
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Hyping models super early is more fun though. 

 
The_Man said:
Still more than a week away - wouldn't start hyping any individual model run until late in the weekend, at the earliest. Definitely bears watching though
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Heard that Sunday/Monday is when Flo should encounter (or not) the area that is likely to drive the path after that.

 
GFS now has Flo as a Cat 5 heading south after doing a loop off NC coast. It is a joke and I hope people don’t start hyping that

 
Since 1851, as The Washington Post reported, 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of Florence’s current position, never hitting the U.S. If Florence comes to America, it will be an outlier
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Still a long way out and models are all over the place. Something to monitor though.

@RyanMaue: Still two separate clusters of solutions for #Florence from overnight ensembles (EPS 00z).

Too soon to pinpoint any landfall from Florida to outer banks of North Carolina ... or hopefully a close call.  

Should be more confident this afternoon on any potential coastal impacts. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038032049431609344/photo/1

@RyanMaue: Worth noting that GFS and ECMWF both indicate a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.  
As #Florence will be very large & likely intense, impacts could be over. larger area.  

Still 36-48 hours from NHC officially forecasting a potential landfall, or not. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038035244031647744/photo/1

 
They haven't even flown into that thing yet, right?

The two that are forming in the south atlantic are far more worrisome at this very moment.  You have a good chance to see Florence u-turn and just go out.  

This is not a great time for Cuba/PR to see even a light tap, not to mention the others from last year either, but you get the idea.

 
Trending more west and even more south too.  GFS direct hit to North Carolina and UKMET around Savannah/Hilton Head now.

DTVaWeatherman‏ @DTVaWeatherman

12z FRI operational/ " regular" GFS mode AGAIN comes way west.- shows DIRECT hit Moorehead City /Raleigh/ Farmville... Euro model winning A Verbatim read of GFS model show a track something very close to Fran 1996/ Isabel 2003. DT Wxrisk - we see this W shift continuing

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx

The 12z UKMET is out and only goes to day 6, but is implying a SC/Ga threat this run too.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Trending more west and even more south too.  GFS direct hit to North Carolina and UKMET around Savannah/Hilton Head now.

DTVaWeatherman‏ @DTVaWeatherman

12z FRI operational/ " regular" GFS mode AGAIN comes way west.- shows DIRECT hit Moorehead City /Raleigh/ Farmville... Euro model winning A Verbatim read of GFS model show a track something very close to Fran 1996/ Isabel 2003. DT Wxrisk - we see this W shift continuing

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx

The 12z UKMET is out and only goes to day 6, but is implying a SC/Ga threat this run too.
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What's the date projection on when this would possibly hit NC?  Sometime next week?

 
Keeping an eye on all of these disturbances. My travel schedule is packed from now until November so I need to keep up on all of them in case I have to change plans. 

 
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