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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

TheIronSheik said:
On the current path, looks like the DR could rip it apart.
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I know it doesn't seem it, but hurricanes coming from the Atlantic basin have a lot of things working against them that keep them from hitting the US.  First, you have the islands like Cuba and the DR, which have fairly large mountains on them.  If hurricanes cross them, they get ripped apart and lose a lot of their energy.  If a storm is heading for the Gulf of Mexico, it's got to miss these islands usually to the south.  Then there's the Yucatan Peninsula which will also weaken a storm.  For a storm to not lose any energy moving into the GOM, it's got to navigate about a 130 mile path between Cuba and the YP.  If it hits either of those, it will lose a lot of power.  From memory, the only storm I can really remember navigating through there perfect was Ike.  If weakened, it'll need to be slow enough moving through the GOM to reintensify.   But a lot of these storms don't get caught up in the jet stream and just continue west into Mexico.  

If the storm is heading to the east coast, the timing has to be perfect.  Because as a front moves through, it will sweep up the storm and recurve it back out to sea.  Hell, even without a front, the jet stream can repel the storm like a bullet proof vest.  It's why you'll see a storm move up the coast and as it gets to the Mid Atlantic, make a hard right and be near Europe in a couple of days.  Of course, if the jet stream bends and a trough comes about, you can actually have the jet stream help move a storm west into land.  These are rare and are just a byproduct of "right place at the right time", but they do happen.  Best example here would be Sandy.

So as the Cape Verde season picks up, it's important to be aware that not every storm that forms out in the Atlantic basin is on a collision course with the US.  Obviously, some do.  But more don't than do.  It's always good to be prepared, but I just wanted to give a primer in what we're looking at here in the next couple of months.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I know it doesn't seem it, but hurricanes coming from the Atlantic basin have a lot of things working against them that keep them from hitting the US.  First, you have the islands like Cuba and the DR, which have fairly large mountains on them.  If hurricanes cross them, they get ripped apart and lose a lot of their energy.  If a storm is heading for the Gulf of Mexico, it's got to miss these islands usually to the south.  Then there's the Yucatan Peninsula which will also weaken a storm.  For a storm to not lose any energy moving into the GOM, it's got to navigate about a 130 mile path between Cuba and the YP.  If it hits either of those, it will lose a lot of power.  From memory, the only storm I can really remember navigating through there perfect was Ike.  If weakened, it'll need to be slow enough moving through the GOM to reintensify.   But a lot of these storms don't get caught up in the jet stream and just continue west into Mexico.  

If the storm is heading to the east coast, the timing has to be perfect.  Because as a front moves through, it will sweep up the storm and recurve it back out to sea.  Hell, even without a front, the jet stream can repel the storm like a bullet proof vest.  It's why you'll see a storm move up the coast and as it gets to the Mid Atlantic, make a hard right and be near Europe in a couple of days.  Of course, if the jet stream bends and a trough comes about, you can actually have the jet stream help move a storm west into land.  These are rare and are just a byproduct of "right place at the right time", but they do happen.  Best example here would be Sandy.

So as the Cape Verde season picks up, it's important to be aware that not every storm that forms out in the Atlantic basin is on a collision course with the US.  Obviously, some do.  But more don't than do.  It's always good to be prepared, but I just wanted to give a primer in what we're looking at here in the next couple of months.
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Who are you who are so wise in the ways of weather?  Will you come with me to Camelot and join us in the Search for The Holy Hail?

 
This is from Mikes weather page.

Spaghetti models continue to agree on this general NW track the next few days. Some latest ensembles and NHC track here. Chances for a pull north close to PR and maybe missing DR/Haiti for a direct crossover showing a little more. Official center of the NHC cone puts a Hurricane close to a DR landfall however. Remember the cone represents where the center can go and don't focus on the middle of the cone. High builds in blocking escape to the Atlantic. Started out as a small little system with a tight core. Pressure dropping. Today it looks to be growing and building a decent moisture field. If it can chug through the shear the next couple days and miss the big mountains ahead we could have something to really keep a close eye on entering Labor Day weekend. Favorable conditions later in the week sometimes mean trouble. Not hyping just laying it out there. Keep a close eye on this. In the short-term winds are up. Dorian is beating many models on intensity early in the game. Dry air and shear the next couple days and mountains. Those are his hurdles. I will be live at 9:19am eastern to chat. www.spaghettimodels.com / Drunk Donkey gear at teespring.com/stores/mikes-weather-page.

 
pantherclub said:
are you in charleston?  If so it doesnt look bad for you guys.
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I am, and no, for a direct hit it does not.  But, these things tend to adjust further north as they get closer to the coast. So, often when they show a direct path to central Florida, it ends up skirting our coast.

Or, it gets to Florida then rides the coast up.  When they miss their chance to hit low in Florida and cut across it, then I watch closer.

 
Local weather guy still saying there is an 80% chance wind shear takes it down to not much more than a tropical wave when it approaches Fl.  Guess it could reintensify as it approaches Florida, but probably just a rain maker for us.

 
rustycolts said:
Local weather guy still saying there is an 80% chance wind shear takes it down to not much more than a tropical wave when it approaches Fl.  Guess it could reintensify as it approaches Florida, but probably just a rain maker for us.
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Shear and land interaction are not Dorian's friends right now. 

 
Henry Ford said:
There's no saying a lot of things.  UKMET has it in the Gulf around Naples, FL on Sunday, just wondering what conditions look like from the meteorological crew.
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I'm not really a tropical expert, by any means, but it appears the GOM seems fairly shear free right now.  Or at least over the next couple of days.  But again, you're talking about conditions 6 days out.  

 
Henry Ford said:
There's no saying a lot of things.  UKMET has it in the Gulf around Naples, FL on Sunday, just wondering what conditions look like from the meteorological crew.
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I think it will depend where it crosses Florida and enters the Gulf.  I think the further North it crosses the better off everyone will be.

 
The Commish said:
It's coming right for us GB :kicksrock:
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DeBary right?  I think it's not going to be too bad as long as it doesn't stall around the Bahamas.  Glenn Richards doesn't seem to concerned yet he hasn't rolled up his sleeves anyway.

 
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rustycolts said:
DeBary right?  I think it's not going to be too bad as long as it doesn't stall around the Bahamas.  Glenn Richards doesn't seem to concerned yet he hasn't rolled up his sleeves anyway.
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Yep....I usually watch channel 6...is there a channel better than the others on this stuff?

 
Dorian is currently projected to a great course to avoid everything and allow for unabated development.  Not good if you're on the east coast.  Still a ways out, but there is blocking north and you can see he tries to head that way, but is pushed back south into Florida.  But by taking that path, he pretty much misses a lot of big land.  

While it's still a couple days out, now is definitely the time to start to look at this a little more seriously.  I think the chance of a landfalling hurricane in Florida just went up to well over 50%.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Dorian is currently projected to a great course to avoid everything and allow for unabated development.  Not good if you're on the east coast.  Still a ways out, but there is blocking north and you can see he tries to head that way, but is pushed back south into Florida.  But by taking that path, he pretty much misses a lot of big land.  

While it's still a couple days out, now is definitely the time to start to look at this a little more seriously.  I think the chance of a landfalling hurricane in Florida just went up to well over 50%.
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Really, this is going to boil down to how strong of a block that is coming in, how fast it comes in and the path the block takes.  So really, we could still see anything from Dorian moving across Florida and into the Gulf all the way to it recurving out to sea.  

 
I’ve got a non-refundable (unless city is evacuated) beach house rental this weekend in St Augustine, so if everyone could fart in the general direction of this storm, that’d be great

 
Forecast is obviously an average, but landfall by Orlando and Daytona on Labor Day weekend is a scary look right now. 

 
Yeah, the slow down in speed benefits our family beach time for Friday/Saturday, possibly even Sunday morning...the increased intensity and new path sucks for both where we’ll be and home in Orlando.  If it maxs out at Cat 2 I won’t be too worried for the homefront.  Y’all Daytona and north coast bound people might be in for some nastiness 

 
Already getting requests to volunteer for FDOT damage assessment/first wave this weekend. Crazy. This is the dicey time of year in FL.

 
kodycutter said:
11 AM NHC

Upgraded from H to M near landfall (greater than 110mph winds).  Not liking this.
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I was actually surprised at the 5am graphic not having it as a Major hurricane at that point.  I think most models were showing it between 110 and 120mph.  

One scenario not really being mentioned, but should be is that there's a chance this could make landfall, stall over Florida for a quick second while it changes course and heads back E-NE.  This would mean that even with winds around 120mph, the rain will still be the biggest threat.  And it would be a threat for almost all of Florida.  

As we've seen with Harvey, you want storms to hit and move through.  Don't sit or stall. 

 
I haven’t seen/heard much mention of it and I certainly can’t tell by looking at imagery, how big is this storm?  Would it be labeled as compact or large?

 
That one guy said:
I haven’t seen/heard much mention of it and I certainly can’t tell by looking at imagery, how big is this storm?  Would it be labeled as compact or large?
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Last I looked it was being categorized as compact.  But that was two days ago.

Edit: no longer compact.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
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