Official 2019 Oakland (?) Raiders Thread (1 Viewer)

[Stinkin Ref]

I cut this argument off before you had a chance. Did you read the rest of the post where I did comparisons to this year's QB's?

Honestly no I did not....I quit reading after

"I am going to refer to my earlier post. If you think Carr is not a franchise QB then you think Gannon was not either. I posted earlier Gannon's MVP season stats and Carr's last year's season stats. They are nearly the same."

My comments were really just addressing that and the stats part....but I understand....

 

[Chadstroma]

I keep hearing if an elite QB falls to us.... 

Ok, first, I have faith in Mayock. He was an acknowledged expert with a great understanding of football and a keen eye before he was a GM. My biggest concern with him coming on board was handling the business side of things like contracts. I have not seen anything that makes me concerned on that side. My minor concern was on if he could 'manage' Gruden. I have been a big Gruden supporter since they announced he was coming back. But let's not kid ourselves. He is a powerful personality and a lot of power in the organization. The story goes that Gruden wanted to trade up to get Jacobs but Mayock trusted his board and felt that they could wait. They did. Mayock was right. And then this rookie class has been phenomenal. It would be even better if we didn't lose Abram in the first game and now Renfrow. But that isn't Mayock's fault. If Mayock things there is a Rodgers, Mahomes or Jackson there for the taking- yes, I would take any of those guys over Carr. (Jackson has proven everyone wrong. I can't tell you how many trade offers I was given with Jackson over the off season and I turned up my nose because I listened to all the 'experts' and expected him to fall on his face). That being said, I don't think Mayock will get the chance and I don't think that that is his priority. 

The chances? We have two first round picks. The Bears frustratingly have been playing better of late and have won some games. However, their schedule is pretty brutal and should mount up some more loses: Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs and Vikings. They could easily go 0-4 on that stretch. 

For us, we have a fairly easy schedule to finish up but after losing to the Jets we proved we can drop the game on pretty much anyone. Titans, Jaguars, Chargers and Broncos. We have more of a chance to win most of those games than lose them. 

That being said, we are currently sitting at 16 with the Bears pick and 18 with ours. I am going to guess we end up with 12-16 range on that Bears pick and 18-24 with ours. The Bengals will go QB. No doubt. Chances are the Dolphins do as well. There is a decent chance that the Chargers look to the future and grab one. The Buc's most likely will be eyeing QB's too. All are most likely to pick before we get our chance. And that isn't even talking about someone moving up (Bears?) to grab a QB. What elite QB that is a can't miss is going to fall to us? 

Priority? This could be me being arrogant and expecting Mayock to think like I am but I think that there is nothing Gruden or Mayock are seeing within the system that they think Carr must be replaced. He is playing within the system. I think Mayock knows that missing piece is an elite WR and an elite WR will elevate Carr's play and complete the offensive picture. From there I think he will focus on getting more talent on the defensive side of the football with heavy emphasis on LB and CB and maybe a DT. 

I haven't really done any scouting of the college ranks. I pretty much just follow the Irish and then pick up a game here and there- usually Bowl games, playoffs and championship and then don't do my homework until the offseason. I have no idea who is there and who is not. But how many elite QB's are there in this class? And how many elite QB prospects end up being duds? As I showed before... plenty. Give Carr a real #1 WR and build up the D. If we don't make a big jump from there after Carr has everything he needs- then I am with you guys, time to move on. He hasn't had the tools all in place and has been a warrior while playing pretty damn good. 

 

[Ed Wood]

What deficiency is in his game? He is an accurate QB in short, medium and long balls. He has good arm strength. He has above average vision. He reads the field well and makes good audibles. He isn't turnover prone. He is an excellent leader (I give him a significant amount of credit for helping create the culture we have now on this team. Brothers playing for brothers.) He loves being a Raider. 

You don't need me to list his deficiencies. They're listed all over this board. And LawFitz did a good of listing some of them right after your post. But since you asked...
1. He locks onto a receiver way too early and way too often. First pick Sunday he locked onto Waller the whole way, second pick he locked onto Jones. He does this constantly. Of all this flaws this may be No. 1
2. Backbreaker picks to make dicey situations even worse. See Sunday. They needed just about a flawless game in every phase to have a chance and Carr wasn't up to it--again. He put nearly as many points on the board for the other team as he did for his own.
They haven't come close to sniffing a win at Arrowhead with him at QB. The last four seasons they've lost by a combined 122-40 score. In those games Carr has thrown 2 TD passes and 4 picks. But he has completed a gaudy 65% of his passes. That says something but I don't know that it's good.
3. Poor pocket awareness.
4. Can't improvise and create something out of nothing to save his life. See No. 3.
5. Needs a consistently clean pocket and an established running game to be truly effective. But you can say that about a lot of QBs (none of them elite of course).
That's "all" I can think of off the top of my head.

In regards to the specifics in your post:
He's accurate short, I guess he's accurate medium, nobody knows if he's accurate long because he seldom throws the ball more than 25 yards.
Good arm strength? Can't really say until he heaves his first pass 50 yards down the field. But even if he does have good arm strength, so do 80% of the other QBs in the league. It doesn't make him stand out.
I'd call his vision, reading the field and audibles fine but again nothing that sets him apart from the pack.
He isn't turnover prone? He doesn't go down the field enough to say that. Sure, the numbers are good but they better be with all the dinking and dunking he does.
And who knows about his leadership unless you're in that locker room. I do agree, however, that a lot of his current and former teammates have good things to say about him. Not sure that makes him a leader but maybe it does.

You like him. Lots of people like him. I like him too but I don't think he's anything special. I think he's far from elite and I thought he was on the way to that status after 2016.
He has been light years better than the three QBs taken before him in 2014. And I think he's performing like a typical 2nd round pick--some good, some bad, some meh. His record since 2015 is 35-41. That's pretty bad but in his defense he's gone through countless regime changes and, yes, an ever-changing receiving corp.

I just don't think at this point his pattern of play game in and game suggests they can get through the rigors of 2 or 3 playoff games and go on to win a Super Bowl whether he gets a No. 1 or not. (Good defenses can shut down a 1 and still not leave you with a lot of options. At least I think that's what a good defense does...it's been so long since I've seen one). Sunday he dug 'em a hole early with a pick. He deepened that hole a quarter later with a pick 6.
And at some point during a playoff stretch, they'll be on the road and the run game won't be working or the rush will be overwhelming or the crowd will be howling and that's when the real QB in him will come out.
At least that's what his past history tells me.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I keep hearing if an elite QB falls to us.... 

Ok, first, I have faith in Mayock. He was an acknowledged expert with a great understanding of football and a keen eye before he was a GM. My biggest concern with him coming on board was handling the business side of things like contracts. I have not seen anything that makes me concerned on that side. My minor concern was on if he could 'manage' Gruden. I have been a big Gruden supporter since they announced he was coming back. But let's not kid ourselves. He is a powerful personality and a lot of power in the organization. The story goes that Gruden wanted to trade up to get Jacobs but Mayock trusted his board and felt that they could wait. They did. Mayock was right. And then this rookie class has been phenomenal. It would be even better if we didn't lose Abram in the first game and now Renfrow. But that isn't Mayock's fault. If Mayock things there is a Rodgers, Mahomes or Jackson there for the taking- yes, I would take any of those guys over Carr. (Jackson has proven everyone wrong. I can't tell you how many trade offers I was given with Jackson over the off season and I turned up my nose because I listened to all the 'experts' and expected him to fall on his face). That being said, I don't think Mayock will get the chance and I don't think that that is his priority. 

The chances? We have two first round picks. The Bears frustratingly have been playing better of late and have won some games. However, their schedule is pretty brutal and should mount up some more loses: Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs and Vikings. They could easily go 0-4 on that stretch. 

For us, we have a fairly easy schedule to finish up but after losing to the Jets we proved we can drop the game on pretty much anyone. Titans, Jaguars, Chargers and Broncos. We have more of a chance to win most of those games than lose them. 

That being said, we are currently sitting at 16 with the Bears pick and 18 with ours. I am going to guess we end up with 12-16 range on that Bears pick and 18-24 with ours. The Bengals will go QB. No doubt. Chances are the Dolphins do as well. There is a decent chance that the Chargers look to the future and grab one. The Buc's most likely will be eyeing QB's too. All are most likely to pick before we get our chance. And that isn't even talking about someone moving up (Bears?) to grab a QB. What elite QB that is a can't miss is going to fall to us? 

Priority? This could be me being arrogant and expecting Mayock to think like I am but I think that there is nothing Gruden or Mayock are seeing within the system that they think Carr must be replaced. He is playing within the system. I think Mayock knows that missing piece is an elite WR and an elite WR will elevate Carr's play and complete the offensive picture. From there I think he will focus on getting more talent on the defensive side of the football with heavy emphasis on LB and CB and maybe a DT. 

I haven't really done any scouting of the college ranks. I pretty much just follow the Irish and then pick up a game here and there- usually Bowl games, playoffs and championship and then don't do my homework until the offseason. I have no idea who is there and who is not. But how many elite QB's are there in this class? And how many elite QB prospects end up being duds? As I showed before... plenty. Give Carr a real #1 WR and build up the D. If we don't make a big jump from there after Carr has everything he needs- then I am with you guys, time to move on. He hasn't had the tools all in place and has been a warrior while playing pretty damn good. 

I tend to agree that we won't go QB with either of the first two picks. At this rate, Burrow is a lock for top 3, Herbert likely a Top 10 or so. Tua is likely a Top 20 pick and I don't think he'll be there for us even if we wanted to grab him in the first round.  It's not a really deep QB draft class, so I think Mayock looks to pull off a Maxx Crosby and get a fantastic value in later rounds.

And my opinion on Carr is right down the middle -- I think he can be much better than he's shown this year with more than a TE as a reliable target. That said, he's made some really bad mental errors/decisions and his accuracy has been surprisingly variable. He is far from trash but also far from elite.

If we actually hit on a WR and have solid health and O line plays up to potential next year, I think Carr can be a solid QB to lead us to the playoffs. He doesn't need to be spectacular in this offense, he just needs to be a sound game manager. Some games this year he has definitely not been that, so he does need find greater consistency.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Also I forgot to mention earlier that Gannon >>> Carr. 

Sure their numbers are similar, but they couldn't be more different on the field. Gannon was cool, calm, and could make something out of nothing with his arm or legs. Carr is cool and calm until he gets hit or the pocket collapses, and then it's INT or check downs every pass.

 

[DocHolliday]

Also I forgot to mention earlier that Gannon >>> Carr. 

Sure their numbers are similar, but they couldn't be more different on the field. Gannon was cool, calm, and could make something out of nothing with his arm or legs. Carr is cool and calm until he gets hit or the pocket collapses, and then it's INT or check downs every pass.

Totally agree that Gannon > Carr.   Gannon made the whole team better.   You can't put a number on that.   

 

[dcgangstas]

Totally agree that Gannon > Carr.   Gannon made the whole team better.   You can't put a number on that.   

Agree, Doc. 

Carr has never demonstrated the ability to put the team on his back, and elevate the play of his skill position teammates.   

 

[Chadstroma]

Also I forgot to mention earlier that Gannon >>> Carr. 

Sure their numbers are similar, but they couldn't be more different on the field. Gannon was cool, calm, and could make something out of nothing with his arm or legs. Carr is cool and calm until he gets hit or the pocket collapses, and then it's INT or check downs every pass.

Gannon was poo before coming to the Raiders. He SUCKED most of his career before KC gave up on him for Grbac. Grbac! Gannon had Brown and Rice to throw to along with a capable Roland Williams and Garner out of the backfield. 

You guys are silly. Just plain silly. 

Let's ignore all the data and arguments. Come up with Gannon was in a different era (ok, fine, I knew you would come out with that so I showed data from his contemporaries this year which no one has even tried to address). And throw childish retorts out like "we don't know if he is accurate long until he throws one". 

It is the same ole' crap I hate about Football fans. We lost? The QB sucks! The team around the QB matters. The system that they are in matters. The defense side of the team matters. 

Someone please rewatch the INT of Carr throwing to Waller and you honestly tell me that it doesn't look like Carr was throwing to where Waller should be and Waller drifted on his route and let the defender cut in. That is not on the QB. We will never know because Carr isn't going to throw a team mate under the buss. But Gruden knows. Mayock knows. You guys wanting a QB... I am willing to bet you are going to be sad come draft day. 

 

[Chadstroma]

I tend to agree that we won't go QB with either of the first two picks. At this rate, Burrow is a lock for top 3, Herbert likely a Top 10 or so. Tua is likely a Top 20 pick and I don't think he'll be there for us even if we wanted to grab him in the first round.  It's not a really deep QB draft class, so I think Mayock looks to pull off a Maxx Crosby and get a fantastic value in later rounds.

And my opinion on Carr is right down the middle -- I think he can be much better than he's shown this year with more than a TE as a reliable target. That said, he's made some really bad mental errors/decisions and his accuracy has been surprisingly variable. He is far from trash but also far from elite.

If we actually hit on a WR and have solid health and O line plays up to potential next year, I think Carr can be a solid QB to lead us to the playoffs. He doesn't need to be spectacular in this offense, he just needs to be a sound game manager. Some games this year he has definitely not been that, so he does need find greater consistency.

He doesn't need to be a game manager in this system. He needs to do what Gruden wants to do based on how Gruden's offenses have played in the past and what we see now. Gruden runs an offense heavily influenced by the West Coast Offense but decidedly different as well since he likes to run the ball. Lot's of short passing and take the occasional shots downfield when the defense gets sucked in. It isn't a true WCO but if you know his background and you see how the teams play both first time around and now- then you see a huge WCO influence on his thinking and system. The major difference being that a true WCO really relies on that short passing game to be the running game where as Gruden really does want to run the ball. In this system, it is up to the positional players to make the plays. Outside of the running game we have Waller and Williams right now. Renfrow looks promising as a slot guy. As I was worried about from the start of the season (and talked about here) Williams is not a #1. I think he can excel at a #2 spot but he can be taken out of the game by the teams #1 CB and occasional double teams. Waller is a mismatch made in heaven but what TE has ever been able to carry a team? If we get a playmaking #1 WR then this offense AS IT IS NOW with Carr is a top 5 offense. I promise you. 

Carr has done well in different systems. Gannon NEEDED Gruden's system to fit him and what he did well. He was horrible with the Vikings. Not good with KC. It took coming to the Raiders to be good because the system fit him, his ability to make quick decisions, hit short passes and occasionally run when needed. Also, keep in mind, his first two years with the Raiders you could see him learning the system. Look at the stats. You can see the same progression with Carr. Last year was rough but he still produced even with an offensive line in disarray and lack of targets outside Cook and a group of wideouts that I don't think are even playing now. BTW, what has Cook done this year? Gruden's system isn't an easy one. He loves to add layers to it and wrinkles to it and it is a living thing that evolves. Carr is progressing. He has the tools. You guys need to stop being tools. (yea, that's right, I said it- fight me about it. grrrrrrrr) 

Also, let's talk about the #1 target last year that I don't hear ANYONE talking about this year. Cable. EVERYONE wanted Cable's head last year... including me but more so because I never understood the hire to begin with being a ZBS guy and we were (are) clearly built for a power block scheme. But all these so called fans did was look at how bad the offensive line was. So, let's grab the pitchforks and torches and get Cable's head. This year the line has been playing great.... so the mob just disburses. There is no rational thinking in the mob mentality. There is no considering real data or considering all circumstances. Just bad... give me a head! Sigh. It is silliness I tell you. Silliness. 

 

[Chaka]

Also I forgot to mention earlier that Gannon >>> Carr. 

Sure their numbers are similar, but they couldn't be more different on the field. Gannon was cool, calm, and could make something out of nothing with his arm or legs. Carr is cool and calm until he gets hit or the pocket collapses, and then it's INT or check downs every pass.

In his best seasons Gannon had Tim Brown, Jerry Rice and Charlie Garner as his primary weapons the #9 defense (2000) and #6 defense (2002).  Carr has Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders haven't fielded a defense that ranked higher than #20 in points or yards since Carr was drafted.

Love Gannon but he was absolutely the beneficiary of a perfect storm for his career when he landed in Oakland with Gannon.

 

[ICON211]

Both interceptions were on Carr last Sunday and the second was pretty much a game ender.  Waller didn't drift, Carr was fooled by the coverage.  Two weeks in a row he failed to deliver ANYTHING in important games.  These are not new criticisms of Carr.  He lacks pocket awareness, does not hang in under pressure and refuses to push the ball down the field when it is necessary.  The completion percentage is hollow and I don't need stats when I have seen a guy play this many games.  How many times does he take a 3 yard pass on third and medium/long?  A lot.  He is not a horrible QB, but he is also not a guy that is going to elevate his team to win games.  As some have said he is awesome when things are perfect.  Sometimes you need your QB to win the game for you and he isn't that guy.  He's fine for now, but if a QB falls that Mayock and Gruden love they would be foolish not to take him.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Gannon was poo before coming to the Raiders. He SUCKED most of his career before KC gave up on him for Grbac. Grbac! Gannon had Brown and Rice to throw to along with a capable Roland Williams and Garner out of the backfield. 

You guys are silly. Just plain silly. 

Let's ignore all the data and arguments. Come up with Gannon was in a different era (ok, fine, I knew you would come out with that so I showed data from his contemporaries this year which no one has even tried to address). And throw childish retorts out like "we don't know if he is accurate long until he throws one". 

It is the same ole' crap I hate about Football fans. We lost? The QB sucks! The team around the QB matters. The system that they are in matters. The defense side of the team matters. 

Someone please rewatch the INT of Carr throwing to Waller and you honestly tell me that it doesn't look like Carr was throwing to where Waller should be and Waller drifted on his route and let the defender cut in. That is not on the QB. We will never know because Carr isn't going to throw a team mate under the buss. But Gruden knows. Mayock knows. You guys wanting a QB... I am willing to bet you are going to be sad come draft day. 

I agree with you that we don't need a QB and it's not all on Carr, but he's not a franchise QB. We don't need to reach for a QB, but if Mayock loves one enough then so be it. 

Carr will need a strong defense and weapons to lead a team. Have Russell Wilson and Carr swap and no way is Seattle 10-2. 

 

[Charlie Harper]

In his best seasons Gannon had Tim Brown, Jerry Rice and Charlie Garner as his primary weapons the #9 defense (2000) and #6 defense (2002).  Carr has Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders haven't fielded a defense that ranked higher than #20 in points or yards since Carr was drafted.

Love Gannon but he was absolutely the beneficiary of a perfect storm for his career when he landed in Oakland with Gannon.

Tim Brown and Rice were nearing 40, but regardless Gannon extended plays with his feet. A franchise QB HAS to be able to extend plays in his feet. Carr can't do that. 

 

[Chaka]

Tim Brown and Rice were nearing 40.

Way to reductive to even begin to point out the flaws.

A franchise QB HAS to be able to extend plays in his feet. Carr can't do that. 

Just like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning etc. etc. etc.

Derek Carr's career sack% is 4.8%, Gannon's was 6.7% (6.2% with Oakland).

Carr's career INT% is 2% and his TD% is 4.4%. Gannon's INT% is 2.5% (2% with Oakland) and TD% is 4.3% (4.7% with Oakland).

Brady btw has a 4.8% sack rate, 1.8% INT rate ant 5.4% TD rate.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Way to reductive to even begin to point out the flaws.

Just like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning etc. etc. etc.

Derek Carr's career sack% is 4.8%, Gannon's was 6.7% (6.2% with Oakland).

Carr's career INT% is 2% and his TD% is 4.4%. Gannon's INT% is 2.5% (2% with Oakland) and TD% is 4.3% (4.7% with Oakland).

Brady btw has a 4.8% sack rate, 1.8% INT rate ant 5.4% TD rate.

What's the point of these statistical comparisons? To say that Carr is in the same realm as Brady? Really? Cause I love stats as much as the next guy, but the tape and results show very different things.

Carr looks great statistically cause he gets rid of the ball quick and checks down all the time. This leads to his completion % to be higher and keep sacks to a minimum. We end up behind the 8 ball so Carr has to throw meaningless passes to accumulate yards and 4th quarter comebacks. That's why Carr always look great on paper. However, when you watch the game he doesn't let plays develop or he locks into a receiver based on the pre-snap coverage and we end up missing huge plays or those back breaking INT he tosses. There's a huge disconnect between the stats and the player I see on the field.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees don't scramble, but they have great pocket presence, evade the rush, step up in the pocket, and always have their eyes downfield. That's the polar opposite of Carr.

The fact that you put Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in the same breadth as Tom Brady and Drew Brees...makes sense considering you think so highly of Carr. Ryan, Eli, and Carr are the same type of QB. Good to very good, but not great. You could win a Super Bowl with them, but you won't be a Super Bowl contender because of them. They're not the worst QBs, but you could replace them and I wouldn't mind.

 

[DocHolliday]

What's the point of these statistical comparisons? To say that Carr is in the same realm as Brady? Really? Cause I love stats as much as the next guy, but the tape and results show very different things.

Carr looks great statistically cause he gets rid of the ball quick and checks down all the time. This leads to his completion % to be higher and keep sacks to a minimum. We end up behind the 8 ball so Carr has to throw meaningless passes to accumulate yards and 4th quarter comebacks. That's why Carr always look great on paper. However, when you watch the game he doesn't let plays develop or he locks into a receiver based on the pre-snap coverage and we end up missing huge plays or those back breaking INT he tosses. There's a huge disconnect between the stats and the player I see on the field.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees don't scramble, but they have great pocket presence, evade the rush, step up in the pocket, and always have their eyes downfield. That's the polar opposite of Carr.

The fact that you put Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in the same breadth as Tom Brady and Drew Brees...makes sense considering you think so highly of Carr. Ryan, Eli, and Carr are the same type of QB. Good to very good, but not great. You could win a Super Bowl with them, but you won't be a Super Bowl contender because of them. They're not the worst QBs, but you could replace them and I wouldn't mind.

Matt Ryan is a much better QB than Carr.  He pushes the ball down the field and wins games.   Carr is never going to the SB either.

However,  I like Carr and want the Raiders to build the team around him.   He lacks a WR 1 and a D.  His leash is really short though and I still think Gruden drafts a QB project in the 3-4 rounds.  

 

[Chaka]

What's the point of these statistical comparisons? To say that Carr is in the same realm as Brady? Really? Cause I love stats as much as the next guy, but the tape and results show very different things.

Carr looks great statistically cause he gets rid of the ball quick and checks down all the time. This leads to his completion % to be higher and keep sacks to a minimum. We end up behind the 8 ball so Carr has to throw meaningless passes to accumulate yards and 4th quarter comebacks. That's why Carr always look great on paper. However, when you watch the game he doesn't let plays develop or he locks into a receiver based on the pre-snap coverage and we end up missing huge plays or those back breaking INT he tosses. There's a huge disconnect between the stats and the player I see on the field.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees don't scramble, but they have great pocket presence, evade the rush, step up in the pocket, and always have their eyes downfield. That's the polar opposite of Carr.

The fact that you put Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in the same breadth as Tom Brady and Drew Brees...makes sense considering you think so highly of Carr. Ryan, Eli, and Carr are the same type of QB. Good to very good, but not great. You could win a Super Bowl with them, but you won't be a Super Bowl contender because of them. They're not the worst QBs, but you could replace them and I wouldn't mind.

You don't honestly think I'm suggesting Carr = Brady, do you? Honestly?

I was absolutely suggesting that Carr is at least as good as Gannon and probably better overall. The stats support the notion that, like other good QBs, and even elite ones, Carr actually does have good pocket presence.

He is on par or better in not taking sacks or throwing picks, both strong indicators of good pocket awareness. He falls short of the elites in TD% but is still above average there too.

His career Y/A is okay and this year is very good despite having a suspect receiving corps that took a massive hit on the eve of the season.

Carr is showing in his second season in Gruden's offense that he can be, at the very least a good QB that you can build a franchise around.

I find this talk, and it is coming from outside sources like Florio too, about parting ways with Carr at the end of the season to be insane. It would be a huge waste of resources and time.

I get that Goff took the Rams to the SB but does he really look like a better QB than Carr? IMO, no. I won't bore you with stats but his are highly suspect and not better than Carr's.

Wentz? Maybe. I mean, you can't ignore that amazing start to 2017 but before and since? I'm not so sure.

Cam? Come on.

How do their contracts look for their teams going forward?

Cutting bait on Carr is praying, desperately praying to unearth the next Russell Wilson (who is truly a special, special talent). Otherwise this talk about cap friendly first contracts is nothing but smoke-and-mirrors.

Unless you strike gold; Carr's contract is actually more cap friendly than what a rookie's will be by the time they are ready to carry a team to the SB. The Raiders have the 9th most cap space going into 2020 and an amazing new stadium in the state with the best tax incentives in the country. Now is the time (NOW) to make the push towards a championship.

This team needs one elite caliber pass catcher and a ton of defense (something a Carr led team has literally never had) to win right now. It doesn't need a QB.

And, to be perfectly clear, I do think Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are better than Derek Carr.

 

[Chaka]

Since Carr was drafted I'm 2014 this is how the Raiders defense has finished in points and yardage:

2014 - 32, 21

2015 - 22, 22

2016 - 20, 26

2017 - 20, 23

2018 - 32, 26

This is how the offense finished:

2014 - 31, 32

2015 - 17, 24

2016 - 7, 6

2017 - 23, 17

2018 - 28, 23 

Draw your own conclusions, I reserve the right to post my own later.

 

[Chaka]

FTR IMO Tom Brady gets entirely too much credit for the Patriots success. Yeah, he's in the conversation for GOAT but...if the Raiders had drafted him...? I think we still would have sucked for the last decade. Don't you? Honestly?

 

[Chadstroma]

In his best seasons Gannon had Tim Brown, Jerry Rice and Charlie Garner as his primary weapons the #9 defense (2000) and #6 defense (2002).  Carr has Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders haven't fielded a defense that ranked higher than #20 in points or yards since Carr was drafted.

Love Gannon but he was absolutely the beneficiary of a perfect storm for his career when he landed in Oakland with Gannon.

I love Gannon too. His skillset was a good fit for Gruden's system. He had two sure handed savvy all time great WR's to throw to and a killer one/two punch running game. 

 

[Chadstroma]

Both interceptions were on Carr last Sunday and the second was pretty much a game ender.  Waller didn't drift, Carr was fooled by the coverage.  Two weeks in a row he failed to deliver ANYTHING in important games.  These are not new criticisms of Carr.  He lacks pocket awareness, does not hang in under pressure and refuses to push the ball down the field when it is necessary.  The completion percentage is hollow and I don't need stats when I have seen a guy play this many games.  How many times does he take a 3 yard pass on third and medium/long?  A lot.  He is not a horrible QB, but he is also not a guy that is going to elevate his team to win games.  As some have said he is awesome when things are perfect.  Sometimes you need your QB to win the game for you and he isn't that guy.  He's fine for now, but if a QB falls that Mayock and Gruden love they would be foolish not to take him.

I disagree. It looked pretty clear to me that Waller drifted deep or he ran the right route and Carr thought he was going to have a cleaner line. If Waller had a clean line to the sideline he would have been exactly where the ball was thrown and the defender would not be able to got there. 

The other one was a good bet that paid off for the defender who breaked early and timed it right. He vacated the deep so if he was wrong or missed, it could have been a long play. It happens.

 

[Chadstroma]

What's the point of these statistical comparisons? To say that Carr is in the same realm as Brady? Really? Cause I love stats as much as the next guy, but the tape and results show very different things.

Carr looks great statistically cause he gets rid of the ball quick and checks down all the time. This leads to his completion % to be higher and keep sacks to a minimum. We end up behind the 8 ball so Carr has to throw meaningless passes to accumulate yards and 4th quarter comebacks. That's why Carr always look great on paper. However, when you watch the game he doesn't let plays develop or he locks into a receiver based on the pre-snap coverage and we end up missing huge plays or those back breaking INT he tosses. There's a huge disconnect between the stats and the player I see on the field.

Tom Brady and Drew Brees don't scramble, but they have great pocket presence, evade the rush, step up in the pocket, and always have their eyes downfield. That's the polar opposite of Carr.

The fact that you put Matt Ryan and Eli Manning in the same breadth as Tom Brady and Drew Brees...makes sense considering you think so highly of Carr. Ryan, Eli, and Carr are the same type of QB. Good to very good, but not great. You could win a Super Bowl with them, but you won't be a Super Bowl contender because of them. They're not the worst QBs, but you could replace them and I wouldn't mind.

I already shot that "throws short all the time" argument to smithereens by showing the average per pass which is in line with the rest of the NFL.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Watching tonight's game and remembering that we need the Bears to keep losing to improve our 1st pick (even though for some reason I love seeing Dallas lose anytime, NGL), it also reminds me of how many draft picks we gave up to acquire depth this year.

Wonder how we netted out, if that hurt or helped us, etc. Looking for some additional thought/insight:

• In Sept, we gave up a 2020 pick to the Packers for Trevor Davis - at this point, a wasted pick as Davis is a Dolphin. At the time, that was an undisclosed pick -- was there any clarity which pick we may have given up?
  
• In Oct, we gave up a 2021 pick to the Bills for Zay Jones. I *think* it was a 5th rounder. Jury still out on this one -- but Zay isn't exactly excelling.
  
• We acquired a 3rd round pick in 2020 from the Texans for Conley. 
  

So for 2020, that makes 2 first round picks, no second round pick (Mack trade), 3 third round picks (Mack/Conley trades), and one in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round.

In 2021, we seem to have a single pick in rounds 1-4, no 5th (Zay Jones), a 6th and, I believe, two 7th rounders (one of ours, and a conditional pick from the Bears for Eddie Pineiro).

Is that right?

If so, not too badly affected, but still looks like we may have wasted two picks.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Oh, and by the way?

Despite my post about draft picks, this season is far from over.

It's still a long shot, and I don't think it's likely, but we're not eliminated yet.

Actually, we're still very much in the hunt for that last wildcard spot.

But we absolutely need to win this game against TEN -- with a loss against them, that may indeed mean the end of any glimmer of playoff hopes.

So -- game of the season this weekend, boys and girls! 

 

[ICON211]

Oh, and by the way?

Despite my post about draft picks, this season is far from over.

It's still a long shot, and I don't think it's likely, but we're not eliminated yet.

Actually, we're still very much in the hunt for that last wildcard spot.

But we absolutely need to win this game against TEN -- with a loss against them, that may indeed mean the end of any glimmer of playoff hopes.

So -- game of the season this weekend, boys and girls! 

This season is far from over, but yes Sunday is a must win.  All four remaining games are winable. 

 

[Chadstroma]

Watching tonight's game and remembering that we need the Bears to keep losing to improve our 1st pick (even though for some reason I love seeing Dallas lose anytime, NGL), it also reminds me of how many draft picks we gave up to acquire depth this year.

Wonder how we netted out, if that hurt or helped us, etc. Looking for some additional thought/insight:

• In Sept, we gave up a 2020 pick to the Packers for Trevor Davis - at this point, a wasted pick as Davis is a Dolphin. At the time, that was an undisclosed pick -- was there any clarity which pick we may have given up?
  
• In Oct, we gave up a 2021 pick to the Bills for Zay Jones. I *think* it was a 5th rounder. Jury still out on this one -- but Zay isn't exactly excelling.
  
• We acquired a 3rd round pick in 2020 from the Texans for Conley. 
  

So for 2020, that makes 2 first round picks, no second round pick (Mack trade), 3 third round picks (Mack/Conley trades), and one in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round.

In 2021, we seem to have a single pick in rounds 1-4, no 5th (Zay Jones), a 6th and, I believe, two 7th rounders (one of ours, and a conditional pick from the Bears for Eddie Pineiro).

Is that right?

If so, not too badly affected, but still looks like we may have wasted two picks.

Off the top of my head, I believe you are right.

 

[Chadstroma]

Oh, and by the way?

Despite my post about draft picks, this season is far from over.

It's still a long shot, and I don't think it's likely, but we're not eliminated yet.

Actually, we're still very much in the hunt for that last wildcard spot.

But we absolutely need to win this game against TEN -- with a loss against them, that may indeed mean the end of any glimmer of playoff hopes.

So -- game of the season this weekend, boys and girls! 

Saw our playoff chances were 12%

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Saw our playoff chances were 12%

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!

/hansolo.

Don't harsh my mellow.

/OzzytheElf

 

[Chadstroma]

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!

/hansolo.

Don't harsh my mellow.

/OzzytheElf

Technically that isn't odds but probability but you win for bringing Star Wars snd the Raiders together (two of my favorite things)

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Technically that isn't odds but probability but you win for bringing Star Wars snd the Raiders together (two of my favorite things)

To be faaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiir.....

You said "chances" -- how am I to know whether you referring to probability or odds?

Either way, I now know who your favorite Black Hole superfan is -- this guy.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

From a chiefs fan....I hope you try to build around him.....he gives us a chance to win twice a year no matter what you do with the rest of your team......

in KC it’s probably the opposite for you for the next 10......

 

[Charlie Harper]

You don't honestly think I'm suggesting Carr = Brady, do you? Honestly?

I was absolutely suggesting that Carr is at least as good as Gannon and probably better overall. The stats support the notion that, like other good QBs, and even elite ones, Carr actually does have good pocket presence.

He is on par or better in not taking sacks or throwing picks, both strong indicators of good pocket awareness. He falls short of the elites in TD% but is still above average there too.

His career Y/A is okay and this year is very good despite having a suspect receiving corps that took a massive hit on the eve of the season.

Carr is showing in his second season in Gruden's offense that he can be, at the very least a good QB that you can build a franchise around.

I find this talk, and it is coming from outside sources like Florio too, about parting ways with Carr at the end of the season to be insane. It would be a huge waste of resources and time.

I get that Goff took the Rams to the SB but does he really look like a better QB than Carr? IMO, no. I won't bore you with stats but his are highly suspect and not better than Carr's.

Wentz? Maybe. I mean, you can't ignore that amazing start to 2017 but before and since? I'm not so sure.

Cam? Come on.

How do their contracts look for their teams going forward?

Cutting bait on Carr is praying, desperately praying to unearth the next Russell Wilson (who is truly a special, special talent). Otherwise this talk about cap friendly first contracts is nothing but smoke-and-mirrors.

Unless you strike gold; Carr's contract is actually more cap friendly than what a rookie's will be by the time they are ready to carry a team to the SB. The Raiders have the 9th most cap space going into 2020 and an amazing new stadium in the state with the best tax incentives in the country. Now is the time (NOW) to make the push towards a championship.

This team needs one elite caliber pass catcher and a ton of defense (something a Carr led team has literally never had) to win right now. It doesn't need a QB.

And, to be perfectly clear, I do think Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are better than Derek Carr.

Seems like we're just splitting hairs on what to label Carr (franchise QB vs Average to Above Average) but we're on same wave length.

We both agree Carr isn't a top tier QB like Brady, Wilson, Brees, and Rodgers.
We also agree that the Raiders in the upcoming draft need to focus on DEF and getting a stud WR as well. Only draft a QB in the first 2 rounds if they really feel like he's the BPA and will be better then Carr right away. 

I'm fine with Carr, but I'm more than happy if an Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes type transition happens because we both acknowledge Carr ain't at that level. And Gannon >>>> Carr.

 

[DocHolliday]

From a chiefs fan....I hope you try to build around him.....he gives us a chance to win twice a year no matter what you do with the rest of your team......

in KC it’s probably the opposite for you for the next 10......

With Reid at the helm, KC will be good but not win it all.   And, there are no guarantees in the NFL.   Mahomes could be hurt and out of the game next week.  

 

[DocHolliday]

Wish the Bears would get back to their losing ways.   

 

[Chaka]

Seems like we're just splitting hairs on what to label Carr (franchise QB vs Average to Above Average) but we're on same wave length.

We both agree Carr isn't a top tier QB like Brady, Wilson, Brees, and Rodgers.
We also agree that the Raiders in the upcoming draft need to focus on DEF and getting a stud WR as well. Only draft a QB in the first 2 rounds if they really feel like he's the BPA and will be better then Carr right away. 

I'm fine with Carr, but I'm more than happy if an Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes type transition happens because we both acknowledge Carr ain't at that level. And Gannon >>>> Carr.

Yes and no.

I do think Carr can be an elite QB but he can't do it alone just like 96.875% of the QBs in the league.  Brady ain't Brady without Belichick and this season is showing that he is more dependent on supporting cast than ever (of course he's 157 years old which certainly has to catch up with him at some point). Same for Brees and Payton. Belichick and Payton win without their stud QBs for a reason.  Rodgers has struggled plenty when injuries mount in GB, and he also seems to be petulant when things aren't going perfectly. Wilson may be the only QB who seems to be mostly impervious to injuries and shifting talent around him.

The definition of elite is a moving target and depends on so much more than simply the physical and mental abilities of the athlete in question.  Carr looks to have all the tools necessary so it would be nice to see him get some help around him before we kick him to the curb.

 

[Chaka]

Wow I knew New England has been good for a long time but I didn't realize that since Brady took over 19 seasons ago the Patriots have only finished outside the top 10 in scoring defense 3 times (15th, 17th & 17th).  They have been top 5 in scoring defense 8 times during that span.

Forget Brady and Carr, I want some of that in Oakland.

 

[DocHolliday]

Wow I knew New England has been good for a long time but I didn't realize that since Brady took over 19 seasons ago the Patriots have only finished outside the top 10 in scoring defense 3 times (15th, 17th & 17th).  They have been top 5 in scoring defense 8 times during that span.

Forget Brady and Carr, I want some of that in Oakland.

There is only one Bellyckeck.  

 

[Chaka]

There is only one Bellyckeck.  

Best cheater in the history of the league.

 

[Chadstroma]

There is only one Bellyckeck.  

And people forget that he was fired by the Browns. 

 

[FreshiZ]

And people forget that he was fired by the Browns. 

Imagine if he was coaching there when Ray Lewis & Co. were around (assuming he made the move to Baltimore).

 

[ICON211]

Yes and no.

I do think Carr can be an elite QB but he can't do it alone just like 96.875% of the QBs in the league.  Brady ain't Brady without Belichick and this season is showing that he is more dependent on supporting cast than ever (of course he's 157 years old which certainly has to catch up with him at some point). Same for Brees and Payton. Belichick and Payton win without their stud QBs for a reason.  Rodgers has struggled plenty when injuries mount in GB, and he also seems to be petulant when things aren't going perfectly. Wilson may be the only QB who seems to be mostly impervious to injuries and shifting talent around him.

The definition of elite is a moving target and depends on so much more than simply the physical and mental abilities of the athlete in question.  Carr looks to have all the tools necessary so it would be nice to see him get some help around him before we kick him to the curb.

Agree that most QBs can't do it alone, but Carr has been flat out horrible the last two weeks.  Not only not elevating the play of the guys around him, but being one of the main reasons the team lost.  He failed to get anything done in these games.  The offense produced one TD in these games and that was in complete garbage time.  In the Chiefs game Jacobs had 100 yards rushing in the first half I believe and he still couldn't get the team in the end zone.  He is nowhere near an elite QB IMO.

 

[Ed Wood]

Lots of good arguments going back and forth with Carr. I think most people have their minds made up. I'll stick with two points I've already, uh, pointed out:
* You worry about where the ball is going with Carr. That's hard for anyone to deny.
* I think Gannon was better than Carr, significantly better.

And in the following I'm going to show why I think Gannon was better.
The Gannon game that sticks out to me was Week 2 of the 2002 season. At Pittsburgh. (In other words on the road in a noisy place against a good team...sound familiar?) Gannon went 29 for 41 with a TD and a pick...and then the second half started.
Yep, Gannon threw 63 times that night. In the first half the Raiders passed 41 times and ran 9.
And here's the real kicker: Gannon had two awful picks, both around the Steelers 5 yard line. But he was plenty good enough otherwise to overcome them both. The Raiders led most of the way and won 30-17.
And other than the picks, man. Vintage Gannon. The various arm angles, the pinpoint throws, a half dozen shots deeper down the field to keep the defense honest, it's all there. Even the biggest Carr backer can't say their guy is currently anything like Gannon was here (and many, many other times in a Raider uni). And he did a lot of it (especially early) with an empty backfield. In other words, the Steelers knew he was going to throw and they still couldn't stop him.

Here's video of the first half. If you don't want to watch all of it, just watch the first drive. I think it's 11 passes and 1 run. There's also video of the second half but it's not as much fun cuz Gannon only threw like 23 times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARtteW4KF8I

I know, I know, people are going to say he had Rice and Brown and Porter to throw to, not Williams and Jones and whomever. But all that makes me think of is when I covered high school sports and they'd talk about a good coach this way: "He can take his and beat yours and he can take yours and beat his."
In other words, yes, Gannon did this with Rice and Brown and Porter but I bet he could do similar with Williams and Jones and whomever. As a few others on the board have stated, he simply made the other players around him better.
Theismann said on this broadcast something like, "Gannon knows where all his receivers are." Maguire later took it a step further, "Gannon knows where everybody is."

Those two points to me are what really separate Gannon and Carr. These are levels Carr at this point isn't close to reaching. Maybe he can get there (it took Gannon years to do it), but I have doubts.

 

[Chaka]

Lots of good arguments going back and forth with Carr. I think most people have their minds made up. I'll stick with two points I've already, uh, pointed out:
* You worry about where the ball is going with Carr. That's hard for anyone to deny..

Why do you worry about where the ball is.going with Carr? Is it his high completion %, his high YPA or his low INT%?

I think your point about people's minds being made up is incredibly astute. 

 

[ICON211]

Why do you worry about where the ball is.going with Carr? Is it his high completion %, his high YPA or his low INT%?

I think your point about people's minds being made up is incredibly astute. 

I don't worry about where the ball is going with him.  Pretty easy to tell it will be within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage no matter what down and distance it is.  If you have seen Carr play his entire career it's pretty easy to see he is an average QB.  He has his moments where he looks really good and others where he looks really bad.  Completion percentage is a tricky stat.  Carr's was great last year and I don't think anyone would say he had a great year.

Here is a really meaningful stat: Raiders are 23rd in points per game.  And Carr has had a great running game this year.

 

[Chaka]

I don't worry about where the ball is going with him.  Pretty easy to tell it will be within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage no matter what down and distance it is.  If you have seen Carr play his entire career it's pretty easy to see he is an average QB.  He has his moments where he looks really good and others where he looks really bad.  Completion percentage is a tricky stat.  Carr's was great last year and I don't think anyone would say he had a great year.

Here is a really meaningful stat: Raiders are 23rd in points per game.  And Carr has had a great running game this year.

But, again the "Captain Checkdown" narrative is looking more-and-more to be false. At the very least it strongly appears to be heading in the right direction under Gruden.

He was Joey Harrington bad as a rookie with 5.5 y/a but that corrected in years 2-4 with 6.8, 7 & 7, which are average at worst. Over the last two seasons he has been at 7.3 and now 7.7 y/a. At the same time his completion % went from a career high 63.8% to 68.9% and now 70.6%.

Carr may (may) finally have a solid coach behind him, which is something almost all QBs need to go from good (or decent) to great. Cutting bait on Carr now feels like a reactionary, 24 hour news cycle driven colossal blunder.

 

[Chaka]

And to be clear, Carr did not lose the Jets game. Carr did not, in the first quarter, drop three drive killing passes that hit him in stride in the hands. He didn't lose the KC game either, they simply beat the #### out of Oakland, as they should have.

Unlike Gannon @ Pittsburgh in 2002, Carr didn't have the benefit of the #6 scoring defense facing Kordell Stewart in the 2nd of his last 5 games as a starter in Pittsburgh.

 

[Ed Wood]

Why do you worry about where the ball is.going with Carr? Is it his high completion %, his high YPA or his low INT%?

I think your point about people's minds being made up is incredibly astute. 

 Icon answered this far better than I ever could!!!!

I don't worry about where the ball is going with him.  Pretty easy to tell it will be within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage no matter what down and distance it is. 

 

[Ed Wood]

And to be clear, Carr did not lose the Jets game. Carr did not, in the first quarter, drop three drive killing passes that hit him in stride in the hands. He didn't lose the KC game either, they simply beat the #### out of Oakland, as they should have.

Unlike Gannon @ Pittsburgh in 2002, Carr didn't have the benefit of the #6 scoring defense facing Kordell Stewart in the 2nd of his last 5 games as a starter in Pittsburgh.

Maybe he didn't lose those games but he certainly put fuel on the fire in both. Or in the case of the KC game, he ignited the fire and THEN put fuel on it.

And I'm not sure how a No. 6 defense would keep Carr from throwing bad picks in hostile places. Or at least help him the confine those picks to being something less than backbreakers. He's thrown more TD passes to defenses than he has to his receivers the last two weeks.

 

[Ed Wood]

I don't worry about where the ball is going with him.  Pretty easy to tell it will be within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage no matter what down and distance it is.  If you have seen Carr play his entire career it's pretty easy to see he is an average QB.  He has his moments where he looks really good and others where he looks really bad.  Completion percentage is a tricky stat.  Carr's was great last year and I don't think anyone would say he had a great year.

Here is a really meaningful stat: Raiders are 23rd in points per game.  And Carr has had a great running game this year.

All the earmarks of a great post: funny and informative!! Great job!!

And yep yep yep on completion percentage. As I mentioned he's completed 65% of his passes at Arrowhead last four games. What has that achieved?

 

[ICON211]

Maybe he didn't lose those games but he certainly put fuel on the fire in both. Or in the case of the KC game, he ignited the fire and THEN put fuel on it.

And I'm not sure how a No. 6 defense would keep Carr from throwing bad picks in hostile places. Or at least help him the confine those picks to being something less than backbreakers. He's throw more TD passes to defenses than he has to his receivers the last two weeks.

Agree.  The Jet game was a total team meltdown, but the Chief game Carr was the main goat.  The defense didn't play horribly in the first half and he was given a great running game and put up 0 points in the first half and threw two picks including that game ending pick 6.