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*Official* 2021 Survivor Pool Thread (1 Viewer)

Are the Vikings too obvious this week?


I try to avoid divisional matchups where possible. Detroit will at least play them tough. Vikings have the Stealers later in the season which looks like an equally good spot.

Car > Cle > Den > Cin > Tampa Bay

It's a boring take the team with the biggest spread pick, but anyone else is either a divisional game, a road favourite, or not even favoured by a touchdown. Considered Baltimore and Las Vegas.

 
In on New England even though they just lost half their line to Covid. Only other chance to use them is against the Jets again but that's a divisional game and New england one the 1st one. Jets could easily win the 2nd.

LAR->GB->Car->Buf->NE

 
Best Bets per Survivor Grid:

TB vs MIA - EV 1.06 - WP 79.6% - PP 20.5% - FBGGP +11 - I already used in W1
MIN vs DET - EV 1.03 - WP 77.4% - PP 18.0% - FBGGP +10 - Trap alert? (see below)
NE @ HOU - EV 1.02 - WP 77.2% - PP 20.8% - FBGGP +7 - Away but I like the Belichick vs young (& not great) QB aspect, worried about covid cases on the line though.  
BAL vs IND - EV 1.01 - WP 72.6% - PP 7.7% - FBGGP +4.5 - Monday Night Football.  Phantom future value for BAL?  But is IND righting the ship? Trap alert (see below) 
ARI vs SF - EV 0.98 - WP 68.3% - PP 0.9% - FBGGP +6 - Better places to use ARI than against SF
LV vs CHI - EV 0.96 - WP 68.0% - PP 3.5% - FBGGP +7.5 - Not much future value, LV slow starts and higher unpredictability factor with Fields make me nervous, trap alert (see below)
DAL vs NYG - EV 0.96 - WP 73.5% - PP 19.3% - FBGGP +11 - NFC East matchup, trap alert (see below) Dallas can be unpredictable and Saquon rounding back into form?

Would like to get more news on the Patriots before picking but my pick is due at noon today so going with them.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Thirteen percent of picks this week are on Minnesota. It makes sense as the Lions are 0-4 to start the season, but no one should feel confident in picking the Vikings after that painful offensive performance vs. Cleveland. While Detroit's defense isn't close to the same caliber as the Browns', you shouldn't put your survivor pool chances in Kirk Cousins' hands. At least, not yet.


Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens have 6.8 percent of the Week 5 picks heading into their Monday Night Football meeting with the Colts. Before last week's win over the Broncos, Baltimore very well could have been 0-3. Its season began with an overtime loss to the Raiders, followed by a one-point win over the Chiefs and a Justin Tucker 66-yard field goal that saved the day vs. the lowly Lions. Lamar Jackson should lead the Ravens to a victory, but this isn't a team you should trust for survivor pools yet unless you're desperate.


Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Chicago Bears)

This game should be comfortable for the Raiders, but they have a way of making things uncomfortable seemingly every week. The Bears’ offense is not very good, but their defense has a knack for making plays. If the Raiders are sloppy out of the gate, they could face the tough test of chasing the game in Week 5. That is not ideal for your NFL survivor pool selection.


Trap pick

Cowboys over Giants

Divisional games are always a tough call. Dallas could blow the doors off New York and I wouldn’t be surprised. But the Giants could make the Cowboys’ life difficult and I also would not be surprised. And so, I say stay away.

 
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SF - CLE - DEN -BUF - NE

The 2 most obvious this week are imo IND & LAR. IND however is a divisional game so I will spend the Rams who have moved from -6.5 to -10.5 vs the Giants.

 
SF - CLE - DEN -BUF - NE

The 2 most obvious this week are imo IND & LAR. IND however is a divisional game so I will spend the Rams who have moved from -6.5 to -10.5 vs the Giants.
I've used the Rams already but as a Rams fan this game scares me. We CONSITITENTLY play down to worse opponents Maybe it was a Goff thing and his inconsistency or it could just be a locker room/coaching thing where they over look certain teams. We struggled against both NY teams last year and even lost to the jets :bag: , and that was with a top 5 defense. This new DC needs to change things up and go back to what made us top 5 last year and stop playing zone. 

If Danny is out I think it should be an easy win as Glennon is good for a pick or two. If Danny plays I'm hoping we don't embarrass ourselves again. Just some insight and good luck.

I have yet to decide myself on who I'm going to take

 
As soon as I looked at the schedule for this week, my instinct was to avoid Colts, and root for the upset. 

Feels like EVERYONE will be on the Colts. A lot of the other favorites this week have been used, people may see this as a way to 'save' a good team

I want to see how popular the pick is, over at Team Rankings. 

 
I've already used the Rams and I don't trust the Colts at all, even against a terrible Houston team.  

So Kansas City it is, then.

 
Deathly afraid of the Rams flying to the east coast and playing in a 1:00 game, but if Jones is out I'm going to use them this week.

Indy feels like a get-right game for them, after they #### the bed in the 2nd half against Baltimore.

 
so would u all agree with this ranking at the top, assuming these teams are available to u:

  1. TB @ PHI
  2. KC @ WAS
  3. LAR @ NYG
  4. BUF @ TEN
  5. IND v HOU
CIN @ DET looks like a good longshot pick, I'm actually surprised at the low vegas line on this one for Cinci assuming Higgins and Mixon are both back healthy.

 
Alright, we go on

Car > Cle > Den > Cin > TB > Pittsburgh

Seems like an awful lot of road favourites this week. Colts would be an OK pick, but they still have the Jets and Jaguars at home before week 10 so I think we can hold for now. Looking at who else is a home favourite, I've already used Denver and Cleveland, Baltimore seems super risky as that could easily be a 30+ on each side who has the ball last wins flip. So I guess that leaves taking the Stealers against Geno? Not really sure how much teams going into the bye week actually under/overperform compared to other games, but you would think they can leave everything on the table with two weeks to rest up after that?

 
Indy feels like chalk if you can't play Tampa. But did anyone watch that Houston/NE game? Houston has not given up, and there's a chance they upset an inconsistent Indy team. Going with KC. 

 
KC has lost 3 of their last 4 games and are last in their division. It's only week 6 but this game seems like a make it break it type of game and I just can't imagine the chiefs DON'T make the playoffs. Was debating using the Bucs tonight vs the Eagles but I think I'd rather just hold them.

Was also debating Pittsburg vs Seattle without Russell Wilson but Geno came in and actually looked decent vs the rams. Pittsburg with all their injuries and a QB who looks like he should retire, yeah I'm just going to avoid.

I truly think Indy is a trap game. Its a divisional game and Houston hasn't played terrible. Wentz is no doubt a special athlete but we have yet to see him lose a game because of his own mistakes. He has only 1 pick and 2 fumbles. Its just a matter of time till he does some dumb ##### like he did back in philly. Either way GL everyone

LAR->GB->Car->Buf->NE->KC

 
Best Bets per Survivor Grid:

TB @ PHI - EV 1.08 - WP 70.9% - PP 3.1% - FBGGP +7 -  Trap Alert below
BUF @ TEN - EV 1.06 - WP 68.6% - PP 1.1% - FBGGP +5 -  Trap Alert below
KC @ WAS - EV 1.02 - WP 72.1% - PP 13.2% - FBGGP +4 - Away and could be closer than expected.
IND vs HOU - EV 1.01 - WP 79.1% - PP 32.7% - FBGGP +9.5 - Picking against HOU seems smart but has made me sweat a couple so far. 
PIT vs SEA - EV 1.01 - WP 67.4% - PP 3.8% - FBGGP +5 - Trap Alert below
LAR @ NYG - EV 0.99 - WP 78.8% - PP 35.3% - FBGGP +9.5 - Trap Alert below, getting knocked out with them vs tanking for Trevor Jets last year still has me gun-shy.
GB @ CHI - EV 0.98 - WP 64.7% - PP 3.2% - FBGGP +5 - Trap Alert below

I think I'm between IND and LAR here.  Lots more future value with LAR so I think I'm going with IND.  ETA: Just realized IND coming off a short week while LAR coming off a long week, may change my mind...

TRAPS TO AVOID

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears

Underestimating the Bears lead to 3% of entries being eliminated last week when they beat the Raiders as 5.5-point road dogs (I tried to warn you). Chicago leads the league in sacks and it's not often that Green Bay goes into the Windy City and manhandles the Bears.

Like last week, right around 3% of entries are picking against Chicago. If you really love this matchup, you could wait until Week 14 when the Packers come off a bye to play the Bears at home. They also have home games versus Washington in Week 7 and Seattle in Week 10.


Trap pick

Packers over Bears

The Packers have a divisional road game, which is always a tough play. Add in Justin Fields and the Bears maybe figuring some things out, and I’d stay away from this one.


TRAPS TO AVOID

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at New York Giants

The Rams are easily the most popular pick this week, at 40%. I'm laying off of them completely for a couple of reasons. First of all, it's far from a guaranteed win. In the previous two seasons, the Rams have played four sets of back-to-back road games and they lost the second leg each time. They've also looked flat in both of their away contests this year.

The main reason I'm not taking Los Angeles this week is because of their future value. Nearly a quarter of survivor entries have already taken them, which means that after this week, only about 35% of entries will have the Rams available. They have immense future value with remaining games against the Lions (Week 7), Texans (Week 8), and Jaguars (Week 13). By not taking the Rams this week, you'll have a leg up against the entries who did. If they happen to lose, then you just knocked out close to half of your pool.


Trap pick

Bills over Titans

Buffalo could roll Tennessee, but there is some letdown potential here as they head on the road. They’re worth saving for later anyway. 


It's A Trap!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles

A Thursday Night Football game on the road with Tom Brady playing through an injured thumb isn't the best time to pick the Bucs. Tampa Bay is a tempting pick every week, but this has trap written all over it.


Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

STEELERS -5 vs. Seahawks

I never like taking a team with a bad offense. The Steelers did score 27 Sunday but are still averaging 18.8 points per game, 27th in the league. They're also 24th in yards per play.

Seattle will be without Russell Wilson. Geno Smith will be starting, but is a serviceable quarterback. He looked pretty good in relief against the Rams last Thursday night.

 
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The main reason I'm not taking Los Angeles this week is because of their future value. Nearly a quarter of survivor entries have already taken them, which means that after this week, only about 35% of entries will have the Rams available. They have immense future value with remaining games against the Lions (Week 7), Texans (Week 8), and Jaguars (Week 13). By not taking the Rams this week, you'll have a leg up against the entries who did. If they happen to lose, then you just knocked out close to half of your pool.
That's a super-helpful point. I had been thinking of saving KC and Tampa, but maybe saving the Rams is a savvier move. 

Just switched to KC. There is no ####ing way they lose to Washington and fall to 2-4.

 
That's a super-helpful point. I had been thinking of saving KC and Tampa, but maybe saving the Rams is a savvier move. 

Just switched to KC. There is no ####ing way they lose to Washington and fall to 2-4.


Depends on the size of your pool really. If it's a smaller one then yeah. If it's a larger one which has a fair chance to go the distance I likely hold until week 16 vs Pittsburgh. Then again, and the Premier League's not the same sport, I saved the best team in the league by a mile until just me and one other guy had them available and they couldn't convert at home as -800 moneyline favourites, so caveat emptor with the holding good teams until later I guess

 
Rams Pros: Long week off with 10 days rest, Giants injuries (Barkley, Jones?)

Rams Cons: Away game on east coast, better future value

Colts Pros: Home, less future value than Rams

Colts Cons: Short week off with 6 days rest, QB performance uncertainty (Wentz & Davis)

Had to get the pick in by noon and went Colts but already second-guessing.  I'm picking against the Texans for the 4th time in 6 weeks (CLE, BUF, NE, IND) and may be going to the well once too often.

 
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My two entries as of now are Rams and Colts.

I'm confident with the Rams.

I'm not so confident with the Colts. I just don't trust that team, plus it's a division game and Houston looks semi-competent last week. I've been wavering with the idea of switching that one to the Chiefs, or Steelers. Chiefs seem like an almost sure bet, but I'd move to save them. The Steelers looked pretty good last week, and the Seahawks have the travel thing and the Geno thing.

I'm pretty sure I'll switch off the Colts Sunday morning, but not sure if I want to gamble on the Steelers, or go with KC.

 
My plays so far:

SF, TB, DEN, BUF, DAL

Going with the Steelers at home under the lights against Geno Smith and the terrible Seattle defense. 

No guts no glory.

 
Well that was closer than it needed to be.

Looks like all of the Packers, Rams, Bucs and Cards are double digit favourites this week, used Tampa already but seems like a week where you can safely pick a huge favourite without worrying that everybody is on the same pick. Will not be using the Rams as they've got a great future usage situation against Jacksonville but the other two I could pick might be in a situation where this is the best spot we can go for. Probably end up Zona but will have a think about it

 
Congrats to everyone for moving on.  A bunch of good options this week so time to curse myself by looking ahead to see what teams I should hold for tougher weeks.  Of course injuries will happen and things will change (look at Russ Wilson) so nothing set in stone... 
(Already used: TB, CLE, DEN, BUF, NE, DEN)
Week 7: ARI -17 v HOU
Week 8: KC -13.5 v NYG
Week 9: MIA -9 v HOU (not looking as good after this week, next best option NO -7.5 v ATL)
Week 10: PIT -9 v DET
Week 11: TEN -11 v HOU
Week 12: DAL -6.5 v LV (Tougher week, other option TB -6.5 @ IND already used, -3.5 games after that) 
Week 13: LAR -15 v JAX
Week 14: GB -9.5 v CHI
Week 15: SF -7 v ATL (BUF, ARI, TB better options but used already)
Week 16: LAC -11 @ HOU
Week 17: SEA (w/ Russ back) -10.5 v DET
Week 18: BAL -6.5 v PIT

 
Yeah, I'm just going to lock this in right now

Car > Cle > Den > Cin > TB > Pit > Arizona

Remaining home games are Green Bay, Carolina, LA Rams, Indy and Seattle. Couple of remaining good spots, but none as good as this. Don't see any decent spots to use a mediocre team this week, maybe New England? Let's just take the 17 point favourite then re-evaluate

Tentatively looking at KC, Dallas, Green Bay for the next three, then it's a bit messy after that.

 
Tempted to double up on Arizona this week, but will probably go with GB on one of my entries, just in case Kyler gets his lung punctured by a needle in the warmups or something like that.

I'm guessing they are going to be the most picked team of any week so far.

 
Tempted to double up on Arizona this week, but will probably go with GB on one of my entries, just in case Kyler gets his lung punctured by a needle in the warmups or something like that.

I'm guessing they are going to be the most picked team of any week so far.
I wouldn't double up.  A bunch of us got knocked out last year with Rams -17 vs Jets so you never know.  Plus you'll have an entry with ARI still left to use when most other entries won't.  

 
I've used the Rams already and I would like to hang onto Tampa for later, so Arizona seems like a no-brainer.  I can't pass on a 17 point spread when the next best option (GB) is under 10.

 
Call me crazy, but I'm thinking about talking New England vs Jets next.  I never really planned on using the Pats, but this week seems as good as any to take em.

 
Call me crazy, but I'm thinking about talking New England vs Jets next.  I never really planned on using the Pats, but this week seems as good as any to take em.
Looking at the weekly options that @Lehigh98 posted, why would you feel the need to step into that steaming pile at all?

 
Because I think they will win :shrug:


You go right ahead and die on that hill.  It's a division game between two ####ty teams who are 1-4 and 2-4.  Sure, someone has to win, but this is the type of decision I use in the last week of the season when 31 other teams are unavailable.

 
You go right ahead and die on that hill.  It's a division game between two ####ty teams who are 1-4 and 2-4.  Sure, someone has to win, but this is the type of decision I use in the last week of the season when 31 other teams are unavailable.


All depends on the size of your pool really, if it's a big one then generally if you can find a spot to use a weaker team and hold on to a better option for later on, then you should at least consider it - but this doesn't look like the time to do so. Specifically with New England, who play Jacksonville at home late in the season

 
New England at home vs jets for me. I just don't see BB losing at home to a rookie especially the way pats have been playing teams close in a must win. Still have great teams like AZ, kc, Tampa, packers, ravens and rams available for deep run

 
  1. San Francisco
  2. Cleveland
  3. Denver
  4. Buffalo
  5. Tampa Bay
  6. Kansas City
Week 7: Green Bay

I'm intentionally saving the Rams and Arizona for future weeks, I don't see another creampuff matchup for Green Bay (because I will avoid the Detroit divisional game)

 
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Hmm, lots of chalky picks this week. I feel like Arizona is a little overvalued at 6-0, so not feeling like I need to save them for later in the season; better to take them now when they're huge favorites. They also don't have any obvious gimmes until Week 14 @ Detroit. 

 
We've had a few weeks in a row here where there's been no big upsets. What I don't like about my entries in they tend to have been chalk all the way. Gotta zag at some point here.

 

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