*****Official 2022 Senate Elections Thread***** (1 Viewer)

[NorvilleBarnes]

I hope so - but let's not pretend he "healthy". At the very least he's got some brain damage.

He is healthy enough to complain about the price of his crudite

Seems pretty lucid and will be campaigning over next couple months

OK Let's pretend he's healthy.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Let me say at the outset that I've always hated this thing where politicians have to pretend they like "regular guy" food (eg, George HW Bush and pork rinds) and eschew anything that sounds effete and/or French (I recall Obama had a funny line about how his staff flipped out when he ordered a burger with Dijon mustard).

But when you already have a rep as an out-of-touch millionaire, maybe it's not the best idea to film yourself in a grocery store complaining about the prices for "crudite" ingredients.

Also, if the Fetterman campaign doesn't respond by the end of the day with this gif, I will have seriously misjudged the man. (ETA: This would also be acceptable)

[Apparently this is from a few months ago, so ignore what I said about Fetterman responding. Still pretty funny how out of touch Oz comes across here.]

Fetterman responds after all.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I hope so - but let's not pretend he "healthy". At the very least he's got some brain damage.

He is healthy enough to complain about the price of his crudite

Seems pretty lucid and will be campaigning over next couple months

OK Let's pretend he's healthy.

I agree. No need to spin his health. He very nearly could have died, in large part because he refused to take care of himself, and it sounds like he's nowhere near back to 100% yet (although his doctor seems to think he'll get there).

That said, I'd take Fetterman operating at 85% mental capacity over a 100% fraud like Oz any day of the week.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I hope so - but let's not pretend he "healthy". At the very least he's got some brain damage.

He is healthy enough to complain about the price of his crudite

Seems pretty lucid and will be campaigning over next couple months

OK Let's pretend he's healthy.

I agree. No need to spin his health. He very nearly could have died, in large part because he refused to take care of himself, and it sounds like he's nowhere near back to 100% yet (although his doctor seems to think he'll get there).

That said, I'd take Fetterman operating at 85% mental capacity over a 100% fraud like Oz any day of the week.

I'd take an unwashed Fetterman hoodie over Oz.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I hate being optimistic because things always go wrong. But if forced to bet right now my guess would be that the Dems will actually gain Senate seats.

 

[The General]

I hope so - but let's not pretend he "healthy". At the very least he's got some brain damage.

He is healthy enough to complain about the price of his crudite

Seems pretty lucid and will be campaigning over next couple months

OK Let's pretend he's healthy.

People get to see him talk for the next 3 months so they get to decide.

 

[Osaurus]

Crudite. Isn’t that the name of the competition in Bloodsport?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Don't want to read too much into this, but if you're a Republican, this certainly doesn't sound like good news:

The Republicans’ Senate campaign committee has slashed its television ad reservations in three critical battleground states for the fall, a likely sign of financial troubles headed into the peak of the 2022 midterm election season.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut more than $5 million in Pennsylvania, including its reservations in the Philadelphia media market, according to two media-tracking sources.

Reservations in Wisconsin, in the Madison and Green Bay markets, have also been curtailed, by more than $2 million. And in Arizona, all reservations after Sept. 30 have been cut in Phoenix and Tucson, the state’s only two major media markets, amounting to roughly $2 million more.

So far around $10 million had been canceled as of midday Monday, though more changes to the fall reservations were in progress. The states where ad reservations have been canceled are home to three of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests.

In a statement, Chris Hartline, the communications director for the N.R.S.C., said, “Nothing has changed about our commitment to winning in all of our target states.”

Mr. Hartline added that the committee had “been spending earlier than ever before to help our candidates get their message out and define the Democrats for their radical agenda. We’ve been creative in how we’re spending our money and will continue to make sure that every dollar spent by the N.R.S.C. is done in the most efficient and effective way possible.”

After this article was published online, Mr. Hartline called it “false” on Twitter and said that “there is money being moved from the I.E. side” — independent expenditures that cannot be coordinated with campaigns — “back to the N.R.S.C. side of the wall.”

 

[Rich Conway]

I hate being optimistic because things always go wrong. But if forced to bet right now my guess would be that the Dems will actually gain Senate seats.

They'll probably find a way to screw it up.

 

[the moops]

Let me say at the outset that I've always hated this thing where politicians have to pretend they like "regular guy" food (eg, George HW Bush and pork rinds) and eschew anything that sounds effete and/or French (I recall Obama had a funny line about how his staff flipped out when he ordered a burger with Dijon mustard).

But when you already have a rep as an out-of-touch millionaire, maybe it's not the best idea to film yourself in a grocery store complaining about the prices for "crudite" ingredients.

Also, if the Fetterman campaign doesn't respond by the end of the day with this gif, I will have seriously misjudged the man. (ETA: This would also be acceptable)

[Apparently this is from a few months ago, so ignore what I said about Fetterman responding. Still pretty funny how out of touch Oz comes across here.]

Number one issue for rural Penn voter that this dude needs to convince to vote for him desperately is absolutely rising cost of their crudite platters

Also, as people point out in the comments, what the hell kind of crudite platter contains one head of broccoli, 20 carrots, asparagus, salsa and guacamole?

That was his attempt to sound like a regular Joe Six Pack! Apparently he messed up the grocery store name as well combining the name of two regional places.

Nothing says joe six pack like making some french dish that no joe six pack has ever even heard of

 

[Sunshine6854]

I hope so - but let's not pretend he "healthy". At the very least he's got some brain damage.

He is healthy enough to complain about the price of his crudite

Seems pretty lucid and will be campaigning over next couple months

OK Let's pretend he's healthy.

I agree. No need to spin his health. He very nearly could have died, in large part because he refused to take care of himself, and it sounds like he's nowhere near back to 100% yet (although his doctor seems to think he'll get there).

That said, I'd take Fetterman operating at 85% mental capacity over a 100% fraud like Oz any day of the week.

His emails and shots at Oz are funny.

 

[Shula-holic]

I hate being optimistic because things always go wrong. But if forced to bet right now my guess would be that the Dems will actually gain Senate seats.

It has the feeling of that to me as well. This map isn't inherently a good cycle for Republicans given the states that are up. However, the fact that Masters is around 10 points behind in AZ and Vance is polling behind in OH is unbelievable levels of bad given the way people feel about the economy and the current administration. If the election were held today, I think the D's would pick up PA and hold AZ, NV, and GA. I'm not sure when push comes to shove in OH if Vance really loses. I also don't know yet about Ron Johnson in WI, but he always seems to find a way.

 

[roadkill1292]

I cannot allow myself to believe that Ryan could win in Ohio.
But it would be awesome if he did.

Ron Johnson should be vulnerable. He's an idiot in a fitty fitty state. But, as Shula notes above, he always seems to find a way and now he has a state legislature hellbent on using their power to ensure Republican victories.

 

[MAC_32]

I cannot allow myself to believe that Ryan could win in Ohio.

Couldn't convince me of it early summer, but that seems to change with each passing week. Probably more than a little wishcasting though. Still, Vance didn't even start having enough cash for ads until the last couple weeks and they're just as hollow as he is. I don't know if there are enough in the suburbs and the formerly blue sector of NE Ohio to overcome the blood red rural and lack of urban turnout, but I am starting to think this race will at least be in doubt until the buzzer.

 

[squistion]

Note - It is just one poll.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1559506019914584064

Florida Senate:

Demings (D) 48% (+4)

Rubio (R-inc) 44%

University of North Florida, 1,624 RV, 8/8-12

 

[The General]

No way that Rubio loses in Florida. that would be crazy town.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

No way that Rubio loses in Florida. that would be crazy town.

It is a well-respected poll according to 538, but overall I agree. Demings would need to be up by 10 heading into Election Day for me to truly believe Marco was in trouble, and even then I’d have my doubts.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Fetterman up 18 in latest poll (Shapiro only up 15 in governor’s race)

 

[The General]

Fetterman up 18 in latest poll (Shapiro only up 15 in governor’s race)

Great news. Lots of time but this isn‘t too surprising. Comically bad candidates for the GOP and Fetterman is a great candidate.

 

[timschochet]

No way that Rubio loses in Florida. that would be crazy town.

It’s the abortion decision. It’s changing everything IMO.

 

[roadkill1292]

If Vance and Rubio are indeed in trouble - I'm still skeptical, just because it seems too good to be true - then Ron Johnson has a problem as well.

Tim notes the abortion issue above and while I think it's an important factor, I also think that it's just one of many reasons that have helped Democrats battle back in what was initially shaping up to be a difficult midterm cycle for them. Mostly it's been the way Republicans have sided against the wishes of the country's moderate middle on so many issues and the way they've attacked the democratic processes while defending Trump.

 

[MAC_32]

If Vance and Rubio are indeed in trouble - I'm still skeptical, just because it seems too good to be true - then Ron Johnson has a problem as well.

Tim notes the abortion issue above and while I think it's an important factor, I also think that it's just one of many reasons that have helped Democrats battle back in what was initially shaping up to be a difficult midterm cycle for them. Mostly it's been the way Republicans have sided against the wishes of the country's moderate middle on so many issues and the way they've attacked the democratic processes while defending Trump.

Again, it's probably more wishcasting on my part, but I'm getting red at state/local levels and not voting Vance vibes around here. Getting a similar message from my hometown, whose county voting color has strongly correlated to the eventual winner for decades. Whether that means voting Ryan or leaving it blank, I don't know. This state's red and the burbs want to vote conservative, but Vance seems emperor's new clothes to both that bucket and the Trump cesspool. We'll see if that's just talk and not action I guess.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

If Vance and Rubio are indeed in trouble - I'm still skeptical, just because it seems too good to be true - then Ron Johnson has a problem as well.

If Rubio is actually in trouble -- and I don't think he is -- we're looking at a GOP wipeout. He's a relatively popular incumbent in an increasingly reddish state running on the same ticket as a governor likely to win in a landslide. Only way he loses is if the national trend shifts sharply against the GOP.

While candidate quality can cause some anomalous results (which Vance may be demonstrating), in general I would expect the dominoes to fall in this order: NH - NV - PA - GA - AZ - WI - NC - OH - FL. That is, if Dems are trailing in NH, or GOP in OH/FL, it's going to be a very good night for the other side. Most likely the battle will be fought over the states in the middle (PA -->WI)

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

 

[Shutout]

I'm not sure the early polling means much until after Labor Day. That is the typical time when things get real and begin revealing.
The article about financial issues could be big but could also not. Cheney just got crushed despite a 75% win last cycle and a 3:1 campaign budget.
An issue I will watch as we get closer is the "undecided" reporting. I think you can safely say the vast majority voluntarily reporting as undecided are likely to swing Republican, especially, especially if inflation continues to impact families.
PA is just "blah". Oz doesn't live in the state. Fedderman is clearly still impacted medically. SO much dirt coming out every day locally in this race and neither side reflecting well. The republican primary was sketchy. Unfortunately, it is an extremely important race for both sides and it by far the worst race to invest in.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

An issue I will watch as we get closer is the "undecided" reporting. I think you can safely say the vast majority voluntarily reporting as undecided are likely to swing Republican, especially, especially if inflation continues to impact families.

Agree with your first sentence, not your second. It is important, for example, that Fetterman is cracking 50% in multiple polls, whereas Ryan seems to be topping out in the high 40s, especially given that he's in a red state where the median voter will probably pull the lever for Vance even if they don't like him.. But I don't think you can automatically assume the undecideds will break Republican, especially in blue/purple states like PA/GA/AZ/WI. It really depends on the news over the final months of the campaign.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

I believe 538 does that after every election cycle

 

[Rich Conway]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

Kind of a nitpick, but as written, this isn't really fair, without a caveat on when the polls were done. For example, I would expect a poll in October to be more accurate than a poll in June.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

Kind of a nitpick, but as written, this isn't really fair, without a caveat on when the polls were done. For example, I would expect a poll in October to be more accurate than a poll in June.

I guess that was kind of my point. People seem to get really excited about some outlier poll results and I was trying to make the point without peeing in their cornflakes.

 

[MAC_32]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

Kind of a nitpick, but as written, this isn't really fair, without a caveat on when the polls were done. For example, I would expect a poll in October to be more accurate than a poll in June.

I guess that was kind of my point. People seem to get really excited about some outlier poll results and I was trying to make the point without peeing in their cornflakes.

Both sides generally get excited and talk about gains when weeks/months go well for them politically and veer somewhere between saying 'we'll see later' and silence when things aren't going well. It's really all just noise to keep their target markets engaged.

 

[Rich Conway]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

Kind of a nitpick, but as written, this isn't really fair, without a caveat on when the polls were done. For example, I would expect a poll in October to be more accurate than a poll in June.

I guess that was kind of my point. People seem to get really excited about some outlier poll results and I was trying to make the point without peeing in their cornflakes.

I usually just go with "Hey, @timschochet, we're a long way away from the election. Lots of things will change between now and then."

 

[McBokonon]

The article about financial issues could be big but could also not. Cheney just got crushed despite a 75% win last cycle and a 3:1 campaign budget.

This was a primary where everyone knew she was going to lose because she committed the crime of not pretending to believe stupid conspiracy theories. The people who vote in primaries are generally the base of the party, and right now the base of the party prefers conspiracy theorists and quacks who merely need plead fealty to Trump to have a chance.

What might be happening in the general election polls is that this support for Infowars enthusiasts is not bleeding out into the general electorate and might actually be repelling them.

 

[The General]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

I believe that is what 538 does. They pretty much take an aggregate of all polls and weight them on a variety of things including past accuracy.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

Kind of a nitpick, but as written, this isn't really fair, without a caveat on when the polls were done. For example, I would expect a poll in October to be more accurate than a poll in June.

I guess that was kind of my point. People seem to get really excited about some outlier poll results and I was trying to make the point without peeing in their cornflakes.

Both sides generally get excited and talk about gains when weeks/months go well for them politically and veer somewhere between saying 'we'll see later' and silence when things aren't going well. It's really all just noise to keep their target markets engaged.

Maybe it's just a function of being a neurotic middle-aged Jew who will always worry about the polls overstating my chosen candidate's chances, but I've never really understood the need to spin poll results. I mean, obviously the campaigns themselves do, in order to rally supporters or ensure they don't get complacent or whatever. I'm talking about randos like us. Whether it's the "unskew the polls" movement in 2012 or people getting mad at Nate Silver for saying before the 2016 election that Trump had a 30% chance of winning, it's like, people realize that none of this stuff actually matters, right? Polls give us a semi-accurate snapshot of where the race is at that moment, but a) it could be wrong and b) it could change.

Jon Lovett had a great line in 2020 about Biden's polling lead: Go to bed every night as if the polls are accurate and wake up every morning as if they're wrong.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Just for fun, after the election, take note of the polls and publications that were most "inaccurate".

I believe that is what 538 does. They pretty much take an aggregate of all polls and weight them on a variety of things including past accuracy.

Yes, whenever I see a poll result the first thing I do is check 538 to see that pollster's grade. And even then I still try not to overreact to any single poll (see my previous post)

They also publish an article after the election assessing how each polling outfit did during that campaign.

 

[The Commish]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

 

[Rich Conway]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

Except it's not baffling at all. The Dobbs decision, GOP state legislatures going way overboard on abortion restrictions in response to Dobbs, and the GOP nominating conspiracy nuts like Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz are the reason. Maybe you meant "it's baffling that the GOP screwed this up"?

 

[timschochet]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

Except it's not baffling at all. The Dobbs decision, GOP state legislatures going way overboard on abortion restrictions in response to Dobbs, and the GOP nominating conspiracy nuts like Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz are the reason. Maybe you meant "it's baffling that the GOP screwed this up"?

Isn’t the real problem that there is no GOP anymore? I have no idea what they even stand for, beyond ousting anybody who challenges Donald Trump.

 

[The General]

Sloppy Steve weighs in

Thinks Fetterman is satanic and part of this weirdo groomer thing that fringe folks go on about.

 

[roadkill1292]

It's almost as if "let's go all in on the guy hated by over half the electorate" is a bad strategy.

Dem candidates need to keep pounding home that they're passing legislation that helps Americans while Republicans are professing their loyalty to a grifting narcissist.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

The Senate map this year was always going to be slightly favorable to the Dems, particularly with Toomey's retirement (2020 was even more so). Candidate quality has tipped things a little further.

In case anyone's wondering, 2024 is going to be much more favorable to the GOP, with Dems having to defend WV/MT and also figure out what the hell to do with Sinema in AZ.

 

[timschochet]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

The Senate map this year was always going to be slightly favorable to the Dems, particularly with Toomey's retirement (2020 was even more so). Candidate quality has tipped things a little further.

In case anyone's wondering, 2024 is going to be much more favorable to the GOP, with Dems having to defend WV/MT and also figure out what the hell to do with Sinema in AZ.

2024 all depends if Trump runs. And also if the GOP can find a way out of this abortion mess.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

The Senate map this year was always going to be slightly favorable to the Dems, particularly with Toomey's retirement (2020 was even more so). Candidate quality has tipped things a little further.

In case anyone's wondering, 2024 is going to be much more favorable to the GOP, with Dems having to defend WV/MT and also figure out what the hell to do with Sinema in AZ.

2024 all depends if Trump runs. And also if the GOP can find a way out of this abortion mess.

Sure. I'm not predicting what will happen, just describing the tilt of the map, which will be one factor among many. That said, it's worth remembering that 2018 was a pretty bad year for the GOP, but because the Senate map was so tilted in their favor, they picked up seats

 

[The Commish]

That this is even an active thread should give us all pause. It was baffling how the Dems were able to get control from the GOP last election cycle. Given the events that have transpired, it's baffling how this is NOT a layup for the GOP this cycle. This is like when the Dems threw John Freakin' Kerry out there as the answer to Bush. It's embarrassing.

Except it's not baffling at all. The Dobbs decision, GOP state legislatures going way overboard on abortion restrictions in response to Dobbs, and the GOP nominating conspiracy nuts like Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz are the reason. Maybe you meant "it's baffling that the GOP screwed this up"?

Probably a better way to put it.

 

[lazyike]

If Vance and Rubio are indeed in trouble - I'm still skeptical, just because it seems too good to be true - then Ron Johnson has a problem as well.

If Rubio is actually in trouble -- and I don't think he is -- we're looking at a GOP wipeout. He's a relatively popular incumbent in an increasingly reddish state running on the same ticket as a governor likely to win in a landslide. Only way he loses is if the national trend shifts sharply against the GOP.

While candidate quality can cause some anomalous results (which Vance may be demonstrating), in general I would expect the dominoes to fall in this order: NH - NV - PA - GA - AZ - WI - NC - OH - FL. That is, if Dems are trailing in NH, or GOP in OH/FL, it's going to be a very good night for the other side. Most likely the battle will be fought over the states in the middle (PA -->WI)

I agree there is no way Rubio is in trouble. The Cuban vote in the Miami area and the hardcore Trumpers in the panhandle will ensure he stays in the Senate. I do like Demings but Florida is turning redder each year.

 

[joffer]

Ds almost 2:1 to keep the senate on 538 now. Trending in the right direction

 

[Osaurus]

Rubio isn’t losing to Demings. Stone cold lock

 

[-fish-]

McConnell knows that they aren't flipping the Senate. A few months ago this seemed like a lock. The frenzy of red states to try to create the most restrictive and punitive abortion laws, coupled with the latest Trump embarrassment, has really screwed them. They may not flip the house either.

He blames poor "candidate quality." Seems like code for "Trumplicans are killing us."

"I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different," the GOP leader said. "Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."

 

[Sunshine6854]

It's almost as if "let's go all in on the guy hated by over half the electorate" is a bad strategy.

Dem candidates need to keep pounding home that they're passing legislation that helps Americans while Republicans are professing their loyalty to a grifting narcissist.

This is the way. Plus emphasize the improving economy as we get closer to the election and make sure the electorate knows it's Trump's spending that's largely got us in this inflation mess.

 

[The General]

Let me say at the outset that I've always hated this thing where politicians have to pretend they like "regular guy" food (eg, George HW Bush and pork rinds) and eschew anything that sounds effete and/or French (I recall Obama had a funny line about how his staff flipped out when he ordered a burger with Dijon mustard).

But when you already have a rep as an out-of-touch millionaire, maybe it's not the best idea to film yourself in a grocery store complaining about the prices for "crudite" ingredients.

Also, if the Fetterman campaign doesn't respond by the end of the day with this gif, I will have seriously misjudged the man. (ETA: This would also be acceptable)

[Apparently this is from a few months ago, so ignore what I said about Fetterman responding. Still pretty funny how out of touch Oz comes across here.]

Pretty good shtick here