Okee doke - originally I was going to post this in the dead time between the round of 16 and round of 8 but the topic's already been discussed enough so why not now?
So yes, FIFA is going to 48 teams for the 2026 Edition of the World Cup. Tentatively the plan is to go with 16 groups of 3 (I say tentatively because at least the idea of going to groups of 4 has been broached and it's FIFA and they totally could change on a dime - just ask Bud Zero.
The allotments I am sure won't change regardless of what they do. Those are:
UEFA: 16
CONMEBOL: 6 + (1/3)
CAF: 9 + (1/3)
AFC: 8 + (1/3)
CONCACAF: 6 + (1/3) + (1/3)
OFC: 1 + (1/3)
The 1/3's represent 6 spots in a playoff for the last 2 spots. Each non-UEFA confederation gets 1 spot with the host confederation (in this case CONCACAF) getting 1 extra. The top 2 of those 6 teams get a bye into final match for a playoff spot with the other 4 nations drawn into pairs to play for the right to play one of those seeded teams for those 2 spots.
Based on the 6 + 1/3 + 1/3 notation I suppose it's entirely possible that the 2 CONCACAF Nations that get into the plan in won't necessarily have to play each other - so it's at least conceivable that CONCACAF could have EIGHT teams in the 2026 tournament.
And yes all 3 hosts - Canada, Mexico and United States will automatically qualify. Nobody will care. Since multi-nation bids may become more a norm moving forward, that extra play-in spot going to the host confederation also softens that blow a little.
Now you might be saying - what happens when UEFA hosts? Will they get a play in team? Could their be 17 UEFA teams in the 2034 tournament. I mean who the heck knows but FIFA will probably a find a way to change the rules and avoid that. Check back in 12 years.
A couple ground rules I set up for this:
For the 16-group scenario, no group will have more than 1 county from the same confederation in the same group.
All 3 hosts will be in pot 1. This always is the case and will be again. They'll also get pre-assigned groups that will have them (hypothetically) meet as late as possible - not sure what half they'll lump Canada into but I can see something like US as group A, Canada as group E, Mexico as Group M or whatever. That said, my example will ignore this possibility.
Pots will be assigned (with the exception of USA, Mexico, and the only exception that matters Canada) based on current FIFA rankings assuming all of the top ranked teams in each confederation make it.
Using the current FIFA rankings would yield a play-in field of these 6 nations (rank in parentheses): Ecuador (44), Burkina Faso (54), El Salvador (74), Oman (75), Honduras (80), and Papua New Guinea (159). For this exercise, the final two spots would go to Ecuador and Burkina Faso
The next post will have the 3 pots under this setup.
-QG