Official 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Nigel (2 Viewers)

[culdeus]

I think I'd be a lot more worried if I were on Long Island than in the Carolinas at this point.

IMO the takeaway from this thing is that climate change has produced conditions where going from not having a threat at all to a Cat 5 in just a few days will become more common.

If that happened with a landfalling hurricane it would add new problems with preparations and evacuations.

It's the Caribbean cruiser that has this risk. A cape Verde storm is not going to sneak up on us.

 

[3C's]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1699818581247340972

Nhc has said in nearly every advisory they are behind the models.

Not sure what you mean. That tweet (yeah it's a tweet, not an X) is pointing out that from 12z today +36 hours NHC forecast has it at Cat 5, which is unprecedented.

The nhc has text with each advisory and they have had comments that they felt the numbers they were publishing would be low.

Right, and if I'm reading it right the tweet has nothing to do with NHC being conservative, maybe more to the opposite.

 

[3C's]

Cat 4 already, not surprised

 

[3C's]

Worried about Nova Scotia. I’m going there next month.

Nova Scotia has been decimated with flooding this year already. What did they do to deserve this?

This: https://twitter.com/ryansnoddon/status/1699839786150949110

 

[3C's]

Recon fight finding numbers that put it at or near cat5. Maybe those "crazy" numbers from HAFS aren't so crazy.

 

[Mjolnirs]

Margot

 

[culdeus]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1699939104245555556

 

[culdeus]

Not quite a cat 5 but very close.

 

[Penguin]

Not quite a cat 5 but very close

It is now, 160 MPH winds

 

[3C's]

Now they forecast for 180mph which will probably be low. Could challenge the record for wind speed (Atlantic).

 

[culdeus]

Weakened overnight due to shear. May see two days like this then make one more run at history

 

[3C's]

Eyewall pretty much gone in current satellite pics, could be going through replacement.

 

[3C's]

Weakened overnight due to shear. May see two days like this then make one more run at history

Not sure it did. If you're getting that from the Eric Webb tweet there was a reply that corrected it, but it has stopped intensifying. It is going to weaken though and like you said bounce back up and down.

 

[culdeus]

Weakened overnight due to shear. May see two days like this then make one more run at history

Not sure it did. If you're getting that from the Eric Webb tweet there was a reply that corrected it, but it has stopped intensifying. It is going to weaken though and like you said bounce back up and down.

The intensity model guidance.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_intensity_latest.png

 

[Osaurus]

Does anyone else play the “rapid intensification” drinking game?

 

[3C's]

Still no turn in the HAFS models but it looks like it's starting to show that opening to the north. Closer it gets to 70W at +126 hour the more nail biting I'm doing. I'm about out of nails.

 

[3C's]

The trend is not our friend.

If the "split the goalpost" scenario is going to hold up the HAFS better start showing something good soon.

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1700100408876663131

 

[culdeus]

https://twitter.com/wxreboot/status/1700212874361045322

12z ECMWF has made a rather 'big' adjustment south and is stronger than last run..interesting noteworthy trend..

 

[3C's]

HAFS seeing the right hand (aka north) turn now so that's good, and in agreement with the others.

 

[3C's]

https://twitter.com/wxreboot/status/1700212874361045322

12z ECMWF has made a rather 'big' adjustment south and is stronger than last run..interesting noteworthy trend..

That's what I meant earlier with "the trend is not our friend". Still seems very unlikely to impact most of the US (outside rough surf)...but NS might take a hit. Long way out still but GFS and Euro are almost identical with a near miss for Maine.

 

[El Floppo]

Does anyone else play the “rapid intensification” drinking game?

only when I'm dating a spaghetti model

 

[arrow1]

Update?

 

[Osaurus]

Update?

Lee is sauntering his way up to Nova Scotia hopefully just as a wicked nor’easter. Should be there late Saturday/early Sunday.

 

[The Big Donkey]

[Tuesday] Hurricane Lee to Bring Impacts to Bermuda, New England, and Southeastern Canada

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594Follow my Twitter for more fre...

www.youtube.com

Levi's video 9/12

 

[The Big Donkey]

Nigel

Looks like will miss Bermuda and curve NE.

 

[culdeus]

Won't be horrible but the GFS has the lemon developing into a landfalling TS Saturday in South Carolina.

 

[heckmanm]

Nigel

Looks like will miss Bermuda and curve NE.

Category 11?

 

[3C's]

Won't be horrible but the GFS has the lemon developing into a landfalling TS Saturday in South Carolina.

Rain on my bday...figures.

 

[3C's]

Guess I better take a raincoat to the game Saturday. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents

 

[3C's]

Not prepping in any way so it'll probably be another one of those storms that causes us to lose power for a week.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Won't be horrible but the GFS has the lemon developing into a landfalling TS Saturday in South Carolina.

Pretty bad if you are trying to fly into it tomorrow

 

[culdeus]

Won't be horrible but the GFS has the lemon developing into a landfalling TS Saturday in South Carolina.

Pretty bad if you are trying to fly into it tomorrow

You flying a hurricane hunter?

 

[Osaurus]

Hoping this thing turns out to sea. 2 weeks until I head to the Canadian maritime provinces and don't want any issues.

 

[Doug B]

I wonder why "Tropical Cyclone 16" is not being given a name. It's had tropical storm winds for at least 12-16 hours now.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2023/potential-tropical-cyclone-sixteen

 

[3C's]

It's not a tropical cyclone yet. Maybe soon.

 

[Doug B]

It's not a tropical cyclone yet. Maybe soon.

I had thought that determination was made solely on wind speed. Must be more to it.

 

[3C's]

It's not a tropical cyclone yet. Maybe soon.

I had thought that determination was made solely on wind speed. Must be more to it.

Yeah, to become tropical it has to have a center of circulation and organized thunderstorm activity. We should have "Ophelia" by tonight.

Looks like it's getting it's act together. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=16L&product=vis

Getting pretty breezy here.

 

[3C's]

It's official, Ophelia is born. Thinking I should at least go fill up a 5 gallon gas can.