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Official 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Nigel (2 Viewers)

I think I'd be a lot more worried if I were on Long Island than in the Carolinas at this point.

IMO the takeaway from this thing is that climate change has produced conditions where going from not having a threat at all to a Cat 5 in just a few days will become more common.

If that happened with a landfalling hurricane it would add new problems with preparations and evacuations.
It's the Caribbean cruiser that has this risk. A cape Verde storm is not going to sneak up on us.
Nhc has said in nearly every advisory they are behind the models.
Not sure what you mean. That tweet (yeah it's a tweet, not an X) is pointing out that from 12z today +36 hours NHC forecast has it at Cat 5, which is unprecedented.
The nhc has text with each advisory and they have had comments that they felt the numbers they were publishing would be low.
Right, and if I'm reading it right the tweet has nothing to do with NHC being conservative, maybe more to the opposite.
Recon fight finding numbers that put it at or near cat5. Maybe those "crazy" numbers from HAFS aren't so crazy.
Now they forecast for 180mph which will probably be low. Could challenge the record for wind speed (Atlantic).
Eyewall pretty much gone in current satellite pics, could be going through replacement.
Weakened overnight due to shear. May see two days like this then make one more run at history
Not sure it did. If you're getting that from the Eric Webb tweet there was a reply that corrected it, but it has stopped intensifying. It is going to weaken though and like you said bounce back up and down.
Still no turn in the HAFS models but it looks like it's starting to show that opening to the north. Closer it gets to 70W at +126 hour the more nail biting I'm doing. I'm about out of nails.
HAFS seeing the right hand (aka north) turn now so that's good, and in agreement with the others.

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