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Official 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Ophelia (2 Viewers)

Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs

Footballguy
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert - Gert - part deux
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
 
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weather.com articleThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

That matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

Colorado State University also issued its April outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

If one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A Developing El Niño​

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. But that long-lasting La Niña finally disappeared, and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

As of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a 61% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as we investigated in a March article.

The AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

The Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm​

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.
And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific 2020 hurricane season.

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

Klotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University would have been lower if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
 
rustycolts said:
Really hoping for no landfalls in Florida this year. That way maybe Farmers won't drop me.
Click to expand...
We get anything remotely close to an Ian/Nicole that comes a similar path, Daytona down to NSB is completely doomed...not anywhere close to recovered down there.
 
Coastal storm off the coast of South Carolina. Not going to develop into anything, but lots of rain and some wind just to remind everyone that it is that time of the year.
 
Mjolnirs said:
Coastal storm off the coast of South Carolina. Not going to develop into anything, but lots of rain and some wind just to remind everyone that it is that time of the year.
Click to expand...
Been getting an hour’s+ worth of rain the last few days in the Tampa area with some high wind and bad lightning. Nice to see the rainy season back, but can do without that stuff.
 
TD 3 is out there in the Atlantic.

Expected to be a hurricane as it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday/Friday.

Monitor, be prepared.

Edit: TS Bret
 
Last edited:
The Big Donkey said:
TD 3 is out there in the Atlantic.

Expected to be a hurricane as it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday/Friday.

Monitor, be prepared.
Click to expand...
Here we go. Wasn’t expecting in this in mid-June already. Does this mean the season will be done by the end of August then? :lol:
 
Osaurus said:
Here we go. Wasn’t expecting in this in mid-June already. Does this mean the season will be done by the end of August then? :lol:
Click to expand...
I was thinking about this thread, I saw an article that the waters were as warm as September waters, making this season potentially long and painful.
 
Getting back from Italy on Saturday night, may have to deal with Bret on Monday/Tuesday. Yay!

We have been gone for a couple of weeks but apparently there has been a LOT of rain in South Florida since we have been away including a lot of flooding. Don’t have to worry much about flooding where we live but not sure how that area is going to soak up a tropical storm that lingers around.
 
Mjolnirs said:
weather.com articleThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

That matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

Colorado State University also issued its April outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

If one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A Developing El Niño​

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. But that long-lasting La Niña finally disappeared, and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

As of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a 61% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as we investigated in a March article.

The AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

The Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm​

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.
And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific 2020 hurricane season.

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

Klotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University would have been lower if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Hurricane season is about to go nuts.
 
Tom Servo said:
Mjolnirs said:
weather.com articleThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

That matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

Colorado State University also issued its April outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

If one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A Developing El Niño​

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. But that long-lasting La Niña finally disappeared, and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

As of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a 61% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as we investigated in a March article.

The AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

The Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm​

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.
And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific 2020 hurricane season.

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

Klotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University would have been lower if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Hurricane season is about to go nuts.
Click to expand...
Oy.

That graphic with the color codes around areas that can support different categories?

Category 5? South Florida
 
Tom Servo said:
Mjolnirs said:
weather.com articleThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

That matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

Colorado State University also issued its April outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

If one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A Developing El Niño​

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. But that long-lasting La Niña finally disappeared, and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

As of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a 61% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as we investigated in a March article.

The AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

The Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm​

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.
And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific 2020 hurricane season.

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

Klotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University would have been lower if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Hurricane season is about to go nuts.
Click to expand...
Oh boy. 19 named and 4-5 majors. :eek:
 
Tom Servo said:
Mjolnirs said:
weather.com articleThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

That matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

Colorado State University also issued its April outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

If one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A Developing El Niño​

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. But that long-lasting La Niña finally disappeared, and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

As of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a 61% chance that an El Niño will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as we investigated in a March article.

The AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

The Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm​

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.
And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific 2020 hurricane season.

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

Klotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University would have been lower if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Hurricane season is about to go nuts.
Click to expand...
El Nino is getting stronger, fortunately.
 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Think the bad season predictions are going to bear out?
Click to expand...
With el nino it's hard to see. Thing is the cycle was supposed to be down this year with the el nino followed by two catastrophic years.

This is the kind of year where a sandy sort of situation sneaks in though or a Cancun cruiser.
 
massraider said:
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Think the bad season predictions are going to bear out?
Click to expand...
In the last 24 hours I watched wildfires in Greece, tornado in Milan, 300 lightning strikes a minute in Garda, Italy.

I'll take the over, unfortunately.
Click to expand...
We had a storm here in KC ten days ago. It was the worst storm cell I have ever seen. It literally covered the entire city of Kansas City - north to south and east to west. I would say 40 miles north to south and 30 miles east to west.

A TON of damage. Sustained straight line winds for 25 minutes. These usually blow through in less than ten minutes. I heard today it was the equivalent of a Cat 1 Hurricane coming through the entire city.

Amazing.
 
ChiefD said:
massraider said:
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Think the bad season predictions are going to bear out?
Click to expand...
In the last 24 hours I watched wildfires in Greece, tornado in Milan, 300 lightning strikes a minute in Garda, Italy.

I'll take the over, unfortunately.
Click to expand...
We had a storm here in KC ten days ago. It was the worst storm cell I have ever seen. It literally covered the entire city of Kansas City - north to south and east to west. I would say 40 miles north to south and 30 miles east to west.

A TON of damage. Sustained straight line winds for 25 minutes. These usually blow through in less than ten minutes. I heard today it was the equivalent of a Cat 1 Hurricane coming through the entire city.

Amazing.
Click to expand...
Was that after I left? Happy I missed it either way.

Edited to add, we left around noon on the 14th, I guess it hit that night. We were lucky it never caught us by the looks of it.
 
Last edited:
 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
3C's said:
I think this link will work. If not, 101 degree water temp recorded down in FL.

Click to expand...

Should we assume water is hotter closer to the equator though, just not being measured? Is this a sign of strong storms a-brewin?
Click to expand...
Water closer to the equator is certainly warmer than further away but the gulf stream is usually warm as well. They measure temps through various means (ships, buoys, satellites) and they do measure along the equator as well. While this wouldn't say a storm is brewing it would certainly give one a ton of energy.
 
Lost in this is often times a hurricane upwells significant cold water as it passes over sections of the gulf limiting subsequent storms. Sections of the gulf have no cold water to upwell.

The water is also so hot that outflows of a very big storm could form a new storm, and get big. Fast.
 
This is the pacific hurricane thread, but Dora in the other side is the 2nd hurricane ever to be such in three individual basins. Dealt huge loss of life to Hawaii, obviously, and isn't for sure done.
 
Several areas to watch right now, one in the gulf. Rest in the atlantic. Bermuda high is settling in on schedule.
 
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