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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Leslie, Milton *** and Helene (3 Viewers)

Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs

Footballguy
At least we made it until June without one being named.

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
 
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Beryl has the chance to be the earliest Cat 4 on record and is taking a straight shot to the GOM. The earliest on record prior was July 5.

Feel like we wake up and have a clear eye and RI is certain.

x.com

x.com x.com

Cancun/Cozy could be in for a mess late next week.
 
Compact storms with small eyes can really get torn up. This shouldn't be a CONUS risk but who knows these days.
 
Hearing from my guy not to put too much stock into the longer term path forecasts for Beryl yet. The steering mechanism is expected to switch from what is controlling it now, to a high pressure system coming out of the US down the road. And it's too early to forecast what that will do with much confidence yet. Though likely lower chance of it impacting the US, yes.
 
GregR said:
Hearing from my guy not to put too much stock into the longer term path forecasts for Beryl yet. The steering mechanism is expected to switch from what is controlling it now, to a high pressure system coming out of the US down the road. And it's too early to forecast what that will do with much confidence yet. Though likely lower chance of it impacting the US, yes.
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It's gonna get chewed up by shear in a few days.
 
Feeling shear now, and maybe peaked windfield is expanding but this small of a storm can get cut down pretty fast with shear.
 
Shear, if there is/was any, has not affected it to this point but apparently will midweek. It did go through an eyewall replacement and has restrengthened and gotten larger. Likely to still be a strong Cat 2 when it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Repost: Major Hurricane Beryl has made landfall in the Winward Islands as a dangerous category 4 Hurricane with 150 mph winds.
 
GregR said:
Hearing from my guy not to put too much stock into the longer term path forecasts for Beryl yet. The steering mechanism is expected to switch from what is controlling it now, to a high pressure system coming out of the US down the road. And it's too early to forecast what that will do with much confidence yet. Though likely lower chance of it impacting the US, yes.
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You have a guy?
 
arrow1 said:
GregR said:
Hearing from my guy not to put too much stock into the longer term path forecasts for Beryl yet. The steering mechanism is expected to switch from what is controlling it now, to a high pressure system coming out of the US down the road. And it's too early to forecast what that will do with much confidence yet. Though likely lower chance of it impacting the US, yes.
Click to expand...
You have a guy?
Click to expand...
Are you even a FBG if you don't have a tropical cyclone guy?
 
arrow1 said:
GregR said:
Hearing from my guy not to put too much stock into the longer term path forecasts for Beryl yet. The steering mechanism is expected to switch from what is controlling it now, to a high pressure system coming out of the US down the road. And it's too early to forecast what that will do with much confidence yet. Though likely lower chance of it impacting the US, yes.
Click to expand...
You have a guy?
Click to expand...

Yep. Works fulltime forecasting this stuff for corporations with assets in the region.
 
Repost: Pressure down to 938mb with winds of 155mph. Recon Hunters found surface winds of 140kts in the NE quad of the eyewall. Though they did not use this reading to upgrade Beryl, this would translate to 160mph-165mph winds at the surface. Recon flagged the reading to see if a 2nd pass yields the same. If the 2nd pass yields the same or higher winds, Beryl will be upgraded to Category 5.
 
165mph at the last official update. Jamaica in the line of fire for a major hurricane.
 
Hearing there's a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast for after it clears the Yucatan and gets back out over the warm Gulf waters heading for the Gulf coast. Some of the usually reliable models have it strengthening again, others don't.
 
GregR said:
Hearing there's a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast for after it clears the Yucatan and gets back out over the warm Gulf waters heading for the Gulf coast. Some of the usually reliable models have it strengthening again, others don't.
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It's too far out to make this call. Interaction with Mexico is a big variable.
 
I will be out of town, but hopefully it does not make it's way up here.


https://spacecityweather.com/

Hurricane Beryl​


As it moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday, Beryl had an astonishing burst of intensity for early July, reaching Category 5 status. There is fairly high confidence in the forecast between now and Friday, when the storm will likely move into the Yucatan Peninsula. A weakened Beryl will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

After that time the system will most likely remain bottled up in the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, given the trend toward weakening high pressure over Texas, some of the the moisture from Beryl could work its way north. This will influence the extent to which Houston sees increased rainfall chances late in the weekend and next week. Is there a scenario in which Beryl becomes a bit more organized and its center tracks toward Texas? Yes. But for now this seems less likely an outcome than just increased rainfall chances for the greater Houston area. We’ll keep a close eye on it all.

For more on Beryl, be sure and check out our detailed forecasts on The Eyewall.
Click to expand...
 
culdeus said:
GregR said:
Hearing there's a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast for after it clears the Yucatan and gets back out over the warm Gulf waters heading for the Gulf coast. Some of the usually reliable models have it strengthening again, others don't.
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It's too far out to make this call.
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For sure, further out HAFS-A and HAFS-B are in fairly big disagreement as to path.
 
gump said:
Anyone see any great portable generator deals? :unsure:
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If you're looking for tri-fuel and a larger size, this isn't bad:

I bought the larger version of it that is now out of stock for a couple hundred more back in April. I was looking for a large portable generator that could run off natural gas so I could run all critical loads in my house off it. It is "portable" in the sense that it lives in the garage and I can wheel it into position when needed but I'm not lifting it into a truck bed to tailgate anytime soon.
 
Beryl going to hit Kingston Jamaica hard tomorrow. I'm going to see a Dr Kingston tomorrow. Coincidence?

Feel really bad for those already affected and those in Jamaica/Caymans/etc still in the path. Hopefully they've boarded up and prepared. Going to be a rough one.
 
Beryl weakened to tropical storm, but when it clears the shear and dry air it is likely to strengthen come morning. Forecasts range from staying tropical storm, to hitting Category 2 before landfall, with the NHC forecast in the middle. The storm has sped up and is not forecast to make landfall Monday morning, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay, then hook north through Texas.

The storm is compact so the wind damage won't extend out a long distance most likely. Houston expected to get 25-35 mph winds with gusts up to 45-55 mph which is starting to reach downed tree levels. And could see 4-8 inches of rain in places.
 
I'm in Houston this week in Harris County visiting family in hospital. Right in line of path. We'll see.
 
People are using the whataburger app to track power outage up/down. Texas of course doesn't publish any maps like other states because reasons.
 
Grahamburn said:
Acrobat7 said:
beer 30 said:
LETS GO!!!!
Click to expand...
Are you cheering on a hurricane that might kill people?
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Not trying to sound too insensitive, BUT hurricanes don’t usually kill people unless said people make really poor choices with their lives.
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“At least seven people died in the Houston area as a result of Hurricane Beryl.

Beryl came crashing through Houston hours after making landfall in the southeast Texas coastal town Matagorda. The category one hurricane brought winds over 80 mph and heavy rain to the region early Monday and several people caught in the effects of the system died.

Russell Richardson, a 54-year-old Houston Police Department information security officer, died on Monday on his way to work when he was caught in rising flood water on Houston Avenue, Acting Police Chief Larry Satterwhite said.

During a news conference Monday, Houston Mayor John Whitmire said Richardson was an essential worker who was reporting to work in the early hours of Monday.

Richardson made a call to the police department for help before his vehicle was submerged in floodwater near I-45 at Houston Avenue.

A 73-year-old woman died in her home on the 17400 block of Rustic Canyon Trail in Spring on Monday after a tree came crashing through her bedroom.

Maria Loredo was a grandmother who lived with her adult son, his wife and their two young children. A large tree was blown over about 9 a.m. and destroyed the back half of the home, instantly killing her.

Hours earlier, Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez confirmed a 53-year-old man died after a tree fell on his house in Kings River Village in Humble. The man was trapped under debris and confirmed dead at the scene.

Officials said a Monday house fire in southeast Houston likely caused by lightning left one man dead, according to news reports.

At least three of the seven people who died from the storm’s impacts were in Montgomery County, officials said.

A man in his 40s died after he was struck by a falling tree while operating a tractor in East Montgomery County. Two other people were discovered in a tent in a wooded area of Magnolia.

“We are deeply saddened by these losses and extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and friends affected,” Trey Baxter, a spokesperson for the Montgomery County emergency management office said in a press release. “Our priority remains the safety and well-being of all residents as we continue our recovery efforts.”

RELATED: Heat advisory in effect across Houston after Beryl leaves millions without power

“Please avoid downed power lines and report any hazardous conditions to local authorities,” he said.

Circumstances surrounding the death of the two people found in a tent were not immediately disclosed.”

 
Grahamburn said:
Acrobat7 said:
beer 30 said:
LETS GO!!!!
Click to expand...
Are you cheering on a hurricane that might kill people?
Click to expand...
Not trying to sound too insensitive, BUT hurricanes don’t usually kill people unless said people make really poor choices with their lives.
Click to expand...
Yes, how dare the grannies get killed by trees in their homes while they sleep. As the saying goes, in a sentence with "but" you can ignore everything before the "but".
 
Acrobat7 said:
Grahamburn said:
Acrobat7 said:
beer 30 said:
LETS GO!!!!
Click to expand...
Are you cheering on a hurricane that might kill people?
Click to expand...
Not trying to sound too insensitive, BUT hurricanes don’t usually kill people unless said people make really poor choices with their lives.
Click to expand...
Yes, how dare the grannies get killed by trees in their homes while they sleep. As the saying goes, in a sentence with "but" you can ignore everything before the "but".
Click to expand...
I did capitalize it. I digress.
 
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