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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Rafael*** Post Helene and Milton (1 Viewer)

GFS, which is not likely to be right this far out, shows something spinning up in the Gulf around 08/07.
 
In Miami. I cared enough to fill up my gas tanks for my generator. That's about all of the prep I have done for this one. Shouldn't be much more than some rain with some tropical breezes down here. It may impact my return from New York on Saturday, but I'm not expecting much.
 
My dude thinks tropical depression to tropical storm is very likely, but thinks the chance of making hurricane is low but not non-existent. Yep, good for Florida to prepare for something.
 
If the GFS is right (always a big if) 97L will be a little messy for the Outer Banks.
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.
 
Convection being south of Cuba and banding north will really hurt it's intensification probability.
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.

I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
 
NHC bumped up the intensity forecast a bit but also seems to be bending toward the Euro (GFS as well) which has it come back onshore in SC after it's crossed FL/GA.

"However, a faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain"
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.

I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
Euro is the European model, GFS is the American model. HAFS is NOAA's new model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. HAFS has been really good but seems a bit off (IMO) with this potential storm. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024...ason-looms-new-forecast-model-in-the-eye.html
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.

I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
Euro is the European model, GFS is the American model. HAFS is NOAA's new model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. HAFS has been really good but seems a bit off (IMO) with this potential storm. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024...ason-looms-new-forecast-model-in-the-eye.html
Euro= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts
GFS= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.

I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
Euro is the European model, GFS is the American model. HAFS is NOAA's new model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. HAFS has been really good but seems a bit off (IMO) with this potential storm. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024...ason-looms-new-forecast-model-in-the-eye.html
SE is southeast.
 
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.

I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
Euro is the European model, GFS is the American model. HAFS is NOAA's new model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. HAFS has been really good but seems a bit off (IMO) with this potential storm. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024...ason-looms-new-forecast-model-in-the-eye.html

@Joe Bryant Some models tend to be better than others, but generally the National Hurricane Center forecast that tries to incorporate the various models results tends to outperform individual models over the long haul.
 
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The tropical depression's speed and adjusted track will keep it over very warm waters so expect some strengthening to tropical storm, possibly to hurricane. Slow movement could mean heavy amounts of rain and flooding for the Florida panhandle/bend area and up into Georgia.

Remember it doesn't take a category 4 or 5 to hit an area hard. Houston had 2.26 million people without power from a storm that only reached cat 1 shortly before landfall. I learned from Beryl not to get complacent.
 
Tampa dodges the main part of another one. Maybe there is something to the Native American legend.
 
The flooding at the GA/SC line could be 1000 year level.
My sister and BIL moved from Lincoln, NE to just west of Savannah, GA in May. They are watching things closely. At least their neighborhood is fairly new with underground power and very few big trees. Sits kind of low though.
 
Tampa dodges the main part of another one. Maybe there is something to the Native American legend.
Bands coming in now here in Riverview. Got a quick walk in with the pooch before the sky opened. Currently watching the clouds move at a brisk pace to the north
 
The flooding at the GA/SC line could be 1000 year level.
My sister and BIL moved from Lincoln, NE to just west of Savannah, GA in May. They are watching things closely. At least their neighborhood is fairly new with underground power and very few big trees. Sits kind of low though.
This is a flooding storm. One of the worst features of modern news is putting into people the idea that hurricanes are a wind event exclusively
 
From that
And this is just what Debby is likely to do through about Monday. However, after this time it appears that high pressure building over the central Atlantic Ocean will strengthen enough to block an escape path for Debby to the northeast. Should this occur, it will bottle up the storm in the vicinity of the Georgia and Carolina coasts for two or three days.
It's bad enough if a storm goes through, but what you really don't want is a storm hanging out on the coast.
 
The flooding at the GA/SC line could be 1000 year level.
My sister and BIL moved from Lincoln, NE to just west of Savannah, GA in May. They are watching things closely. At least their neighborhood is fairly new with underground power and very few big trees. Sits kind of low though.
I was telling my daughter yesterday that a foot plus of rain is possible in Savannah.
 
From that
And this is just what Debby is likely to do through about Monday. However, after this time it appears that high pressure building over the central Atlantic Ocean will strengthen enough to block an escape path for Debby to the northeast. Should this occur, it will bottle up the storm in the vicinity of the Georgia and Carolina coasts for two or three days.
It's bad enough if a storm goes through, but what you really don't want is a storm hanging out on the coast.

I was in Houston during harvey and saw it first hand. It is bad news.
 
The flooding at the GA/SC line could be 1000 year level.
My sister and BIL moved from Lincoln, NE to just west of Savannah, GA in May. They are watching things closely. At least their neighborhood is fairly new with underground power and very few big trees. Sits kind of low though.
This is a flooding storm. One of the worst features of modern news is putting into people the idea that hurricanes are a wind event exclusively
This is true. All hurricanes are different. With the current forecast track, when it gets to Savannah and the South Carolina coast, hopefully the east side winds stay offshore.

Regarding the new neighborhood having few big trees, with a wind event, those big trees help break up straight line winds. Sure you will lose trees, but the wind break is a benefit. I've never been a fan of leveling all the trees for a new neighborhood.
 
Rain and wind has been going off and on since about 9:30 am. Nothing crazy here SE of Tampa. Just glad I mowed my lawn on Friday or it would be 3 ft high tomorrow
 
We are about 20 miles east of Tallahassee. Debby is supposed to move right over us tonight. We have plenty of snacks and stuff for tomorrow. I will report anything interesting.
 
Been getting hammered with pounding rain and heavy gusts for a couple hours straight now.
 
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The Bradenton/Sarasota area got over a seasons worth of rain from Debby - almost 20 inches. That's nuts!
 
We lost power at 7 as well as cell service. We had a tree come down on the pool house and a bunch of limbs in the front yard. My son’s friend came over and cut the tree off the house. There’s just a tiny dent in a shingle. No estimate on power restoration but we got cell service back mid afternoon. Last storm we were out for 3 days.
 
Calm now on Hilton Head Island. Lots of wind and rain last night, but never lost power. A couple of trees down in the neighborhood, but nothing major. Gators wondering around in unusual places. Hopefully the worst has passed. Not as much rain since storm center stayed over land.
 

The area has seen flooded roadways and rivers and creeks spilling their banks, and rain amounts are still piling up. The rain totals will be even higher later Friday as rain continues to pound parts of the coast this morning.

The latest reading from local rain gauges shows an astounding 22 inches of rain at Moncks Corner, 18.47 inches of rain in Mount Pleasant, and a whopping 15.33 inches in North Charleston between Monday, Aug. 5 and Friday morning, Aug. 9.

The Myrtle Beach area measured between 4 inches and 12 inches (on average) of rainfall, with Murrells Inlet registering 7.78 inches, North Myrtle Beach between 9 inches and 11 inches, and Myrtle Beach itself had 5.09 inches as of Friday morning.
 
Going in 10 hours without power. A few burghs 15 mins from me are evacuating or trying to. A lot of rescues. Not good
☹️
 

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