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***Official ALCS Thread- ORIOLES vs ROYALS*** (1 Viewer)

Neither team can possibly lose. Just way too much momentum on both sides. I'm a little worried that space-time is going to tear open and we're all going to disappear.

 
Baltimore seems to be the better team on paper, but the Royals have been defying conventional wisdom all season, even taunting conventional wisdom with every in- game decision Ned Yost makes.

I don't know enough about the Orioles to speak about them intelligently, but if they hit a lot of fly balls on offense and have a bunch of weak arms on defense, we're going to have a fun, long series.

 
How does a 5 day break affect a team like KC who have been playing super intense games for a couple of weeks? Can they turn it right back on?

The Orioles coasted the last week of the season giving everyone plenty of rest, so this is kind of similar.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
Baltimore seems to be the better team on paper, but the Royals have been defying conventional wisdom all season, even taunting conventional wisdom with every in- game decision Ned Yost makes.

I don't know enough about the Orioles to speak about them intelligently, but if they hit a lot of fly balls on offense and have a bunch of weak arms on defense, we're going to have a fun, long series.
Click to expand...
They do hit a lot of fly balls, but their defense is one of the best. Even without two of their gold gloves. The only arm I'm not positive about is LF. Everyone else is very solid.
 
avoiding injuries said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
Baltimore seems to be the better team on paper, but the Royals have been defying conventional wisdom all season, even taunting conventional wisdom with every in- game decision Ned Yost makes.

I don't know enough about the Orioles to speak about them intelligently, but if they hit a lot of fly balls on offense and have a bunch of weak arms on defense, we're going to have a fun, long series.
Click to expand...
They do hit a lot of fly balls, but their defense is one of the best. Even without two of their gold gloves. The only arm I'm not positive about is LF. Everyone else is very solid.
Click to expand...
That's good news for Orioles fans. The Royals ran wild on the A's catcher in the wild card game, and frequently took extra bases against the Angels outfield in the ALDS.

 
:blackdot:

Fun to see different AL teams with a chance to go to the WS. Good season Bal/KC backers and GL, looking forward to this series.

 
I heard it's going to be Shields and Ventura for games 1 and 2.

Also, Holland is 86 for his last 89 save chances. I guess we can't let them have the lead going into the 9th.

 
avoiding injuries said:
I heard it's going to be Shields and Ventura for games 1 and 2.

Also, Holland is 86 for his last 89 save chances. I guess we can't let them have the lead going into the 9th.
Click to expand...
More like can't let them have the lead going into the 7th. And the same is true for the Royals when looking at the back end of the Orioles bullpens. Both teams like to count on playing 6-inning games, letting their shutdown bullpens protect the lead from the middle innings on. Maybe some of these games will actually take only 3 hours, since both bullpens can keep runners off base.

Orioles are 35-10 at home since June 30. It is a tough place to win.

 
avoiding injuries said:
I heard it's going to be Shields and Ventura for games 1 and 2.
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They've been KCR's two best starters over the season. There was some speculation that Yost would hold Ventura back to pitch Game 3 at home, but he threw a great game at Anaheim last weekend.
Also, Holland is 86 for his last 89 save chances. I guess we can't let them have the lead going into the 9th.
Click to expand...
The time to win the game against the Royals is innings 4-6. The SPs are pretty reliable the first trip or two through the order. The bullpen is three-deep and the team defense is excellent, so they are very good at protecting late-inning leads. However, the pen is shaky before Herrera (the usual 7th inning guy), so the team vulnerable against high SP pitch counts and early relief. Also, the Royals haven't hit 100 HRs all season, so they don't have the firepower to erase big leads quickly.

The Royals would love to have a 1-2 run lead after six so they can sub in Jerrod Dyson for Aoki and lockdown the outfield while the Herrera/ Davis/Holland combo finishes the game. They can scratch back from 1-run deficits with their speed. It gets complicated past that.

 
Davis and Holland are great...but there's a full two run difference between Kelvin Herrera's xFIP and ERA. He's given up line drives on 26% of batted balls, yet only a .274 BABIP. He's also stranded a crazy 85% of runners, and that's despite having worse K and BB rates out of the stretch.

You know that scene in Pulp Fiction where the guy comes running out of the back room and unloads at Jules and Vince? Kelvin Herrera is Jules and Vince.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Davis and Holland are great...but there's a full two run difference between Kelvin Herrera's xFIP and ERA. He's given up line drives on 26% of batted balls, yet only a .274 BABIP. He's also stranded a crazy 85% of runners, and that's despite having worse K and BB rates out of the stretch.

You know that scene in Pulp Fiction where the guy comes running out of the back room and unloads at Jules and Vince? Kelvin Herrera is Jules and Vince.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.

Herrera's strand rate is unremarkable among the Royals bullpen: Holland's is 83%, and Davis's is 87%.

The biggest difference in Herrera this season is keeping the ball in the park. Last year he gave up 9 HRs in 58 innings. This year it's 0 dingers in 70.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
avoiding injuries said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
Baltimore seems to be the better team on paper, but the Royals have been defying conventional wisdom all season, even taunting conventional wisdom with every in- game decision Ned Yost makes.

I don't know enough about the Orioles to speak about them intelligently, but if they hit a lot of fly balls on offense and have a bunch of weak arms on defense, we're going to have a fun, long series.
Click to expand...
They do hit a lot of fly balls, but their defense is one of the best. Even without two of their gold gloves. The only arm I'm not positive about is LF. Everyone else is very solid.
Click to expand...
That's good news for Orioles fans. The Royals ran wild on the A's catcher in the wild card game, and frequently took extra bases against the Angels outfield in the ALDS.
Click to expand...
They ran wild on Norris but he didn't start. They weren't as aggressive until injuries forced Norris into the game. I called steals galore when it happened - Norris had iirc the worst percent in the majors at throwing guys out. He's just atrocious, as that game showed. KC is aggressive, but if your catcher doesn't have a noodle of an arm, it won't be like playing on cheat mode in a video game.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Davis and Holland are great...but there's a full two run difference between Kelvin Herrera's xFIP and ERA. He's given up line drives on 26% of batted balls, yet only a .274 BABIP. He's also stranded a crazy 85% of runners, and that's despite having worse K and BB rates out of the stretch.

You know that scene in Pulp Fiction where the guy comes running out of the back room and unloads at Jules and Vince? Kelvin Herrera is Jules and Vince.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.

Herrera's strand rate is unremarkable among the Royals bullpen: Holland's is 83%, and Davis's is 87%.

The biggest difference in Herrera this season is keeping the ball in the park. Last year he gave up 9 HRs in 58 innings. This year it's 0 dingers in 70.
Click to expand...
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/hrs/

 
Chris Tillman has very few steal attempts against him. His time to the plate is very good. Hundley will catch him.

Joseph will likely catch the other games and throws out 38% of attempts. His arm is only slightly above average, but he's very accurate and gets the throw off quick.

Jones and Markakis are both plus arms in the OF. I don't know about De Aza.

 
avoiding injuries said:
Chris Tillman has very few steal attempts against him. His time to the plate is very good. Hundley will catch him.

Joseph will likely catch the other games and throws out 38% of attempts. His arm is only slightly above average, but he's very accurate and gets the throw off quick.

Jones and Markakis are both plus arms in the OF. I don't know about De Aza.
Click to expand...
All of this is good news for the Orioles and their fans. The Royals will still pInch-run Gore and Dyson and send them in the late innings, but reads like there will be fewer opportunities to grab all extra bases KCR took against poor/lazy outfield throws by Hamilton and Trout.
 
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Should be a fun series. As an O's fan, I'm picking the O's in 6.

I think this long layoff hurts a hot team like KC since they've been in must win mode for the last 2 weeks. Now a long layoff slows down some of their momentum. The Orioles pitching staff has been great from the AS break on and just went toe-to-toe with the last 3 Cy Yong winners in the AL. Very underrated staff for the O's. Butler and Gordon are usually pretty good against the O's, so I'm worried about those 2 the most.

These could be games where whoever has the lead after 6 or 7 is going to win most nights. Both bullpens are very good with very good closers.

Orioles are very good at home, but were also one of the better road teams as well this year, as well as the Royals. Just seems like a pretty even matchup to me. Slight edge to the O's though.

 
MattFancy said:
Should be a fun series. As an O's fan, I'm picking the O's in 6.

I think this long layoff hurts a hot team like KC since they've been in must win mode for the last 2 weeks. Now a long layoff slows down some of their momentum. The Orioles pitching staff has been great from the AS break on and just went toe-to-toe with the last 3 Cy Yong winners in the AL. Very underrated staff for the O's. Butler and Gordon are usually pretty good against the O's, so I'm worried about those 2 the most.

These could be games where whoever has the lead after 6 or 7 is going to win most nights. Both bullpens are very good with very good closers.

Orioles are very good at home, but were also one of the better road teams as well this year, as well as the Royals. Just seems like a pretty even matchup to me. Slight edge to the O's though.
Click to expand...
As Earl Weaver said "Momentum in baseball is only as good as the next days starting pitcher" Long ball vs small ball. Should be an interesting series.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
"Good said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
"Good said:
Davis and Holland are great...but there's a full two run difference between Kelvin Herrera's xFIP and ERA. He's given up line drives on 26% of batted balls, yet only a .274 BABIP. He's also stranded a crazy 85% of runners, and that's despite having worse K and BB rates out of the stretch.

You know that scene in Pulp Fiction where the guy comes running out of the back room and unloads at Jules and Vince? Kelvin Herrera is Jules and Vince.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.Herrera's strand rate is unremarkable among the Royals bullpen: Holland's is 83%, and Davis's is 87%.

The biggest difference in Herrera this season is keeping the ball in the park. Last year he gave up 9 HRs in 58 innings. This year it's 0 dingers in 70.
Click to expand...
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/hrs/
Click to expand...
That's an interesting site. Have they been around long?
 
Bruce Dickinson said:
"Good said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
"Good said:
Davis and Holland are great...but there's a full two run difference between Kelvin Herrera's xFIP and ERA. He's given up line drives on 26% of batted balls, yet only a .274 BABIP. He's also stranded a crazy 85% of runners, and that's despite having worse K and BB rates out of the stretch.

You know that scene in Pulp Fiction where the guy comes running out of the back room and unloads at Jules and Vince? Kelvin Herrera is Jules and Vince.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.Herrera's strand rate is unremarkable among the Royals bullpen: Holland's is 83%, and Davis's is 87%.

The biggest difference in Herrera this season is keeping the ball in the park. Last year he gave up 9 HRs in 58 innings. This year it's 0 dingers in 70.
Click to expand...
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/hrs/
Click to expand...
That's an interesting site. Have they been around long?
Click to expand...
:unsure:

 
Weather is looking pretty soggy for Baltimore on Friday night, though the heavy stuff might hold off until midnight. Then again, there was a lot of talk about rain before Jeter's Yankee Stadium farewell and that turned out fine.

Would stink if the games got pushed back to Saturday and Sunday.

 
The_Man said:
Weather is looking pretty soggy for Baltimore on Friday night, though the heavy stuff might hold off until midnight. Then again, there was a lot of talk about rain before Jeter's Yankee Stadium farewell and that turned out fine.

Would stink if the games got pushed back to Saturday and Sunday.
Click to expand...
Decent chance of rain in STL this weekend, too. Playoff baseball withdrawls could extend in both circuits.A lot of Royals fans I know were excited about Detroit getting eliminated because of their rotation and the division rival stuff, but I'm my admittedly limited crash course on the Orioles this week, this doesn't seem like an alternative that should be preferred.

 
The_Man said:
Weather is looking pretty soggy for Baltimore on Friday night, though the heavy stuff might hold off until midnight. Then again, there was a lot of talk about rain before Jeter's Yankee Stadium farewell and that turned out fine.

Would stink if the games got pushed back to Saturday and Sunday.
Click to expand...
Speak for yourself. I don't feel like sitting in the rain tomorrow night or having to wait out a long delay like 2012. I hope they call the game tomorrow afternoon.
 
Doesn't look like we're going to get a ballgame tonight based on the weather report

Obviously I'm a Royals homer and I can't believe I'm going to say this... but I think the Royals are going to win in 5....

I will root for whoever wins this to win the series...

But as a Royals fan the idea of facing the Cardinals is both exhilarating and terrifying.

Beating the Cardinals would be a dream come true for the 2nd time in my life... but if you told me my only two options were losing to baltimore or losing to St. Louis, I'd take the former even though that means we don't make the world series

 
Yeah, weather is sounding real sketchy. Might not be raining right at 8, but it's supposed to rain pretty hard soon after. I think they would hate to start a Game 1 and then have to call it - would burn both teams' #1 starters. Will be surprised if it's not postponed.

Anyone with Game 2 tickets who can't make it Sunday?

O's make one roster switch from ALDS, left-handed specialist Matusz in for Jimenez (who I think was the only Oriole on the roster not to play at all vs. Detroit). KC makes no switches, keeping Baltimore's 2012 ALDS villain Raul Ibanez safely away from them.

 
I got a tip that the O's website was selling extra tickets to tonight's game. I bought a few pairs. I sold most, but I have 2 extra in section 18 (behind O's dugout and 1st base) that I'm trying to get rid of.

After fees, I'd get less from stubhub than I paid. If anyone is looking for tickets at face, let me know.

 
avoiding injuries said:
I got a tip that the O's website was selling extra tickets to tonight's game. I bought a few pairs. I sold most, but I have 2 extra in section 18 (behind O's dugout and 1st base) that I'm trying to get rid of.

After fees, I'd get less from stubhub than I paid. If anyone is looking for tickets at face, let me know.
Click to expand...
DM sent - probably can't make it, but soooo tempting.

 
So that was pretty awesome. Based on avoiding injuries' post, I went to the Orioles website for fun and clicked on "Buy Tickets." They must have just released a stash, because I got a pair in the 8th row of the bleachers for face value. Going to ALCS Game 1!

:pickle: :pickle:

Now I'm really hoping for no rain tonight. Even at face value, it's a little steep so I don't want to have to pay twice for parking, drinks, etc.

LET'S GO O'S!

 
Grantland preview of series highlighted Baltimore's organizational emphasis on fast deliveries to the plate from the stretch to limit opponent base running opportunities. Tillman in particular is tough to run on because of this.

I think we're going to see these games decided in the 4-6 innings. Both bullpens are deep and strong enough to protect leads. Both rotations have guys who will struggle to get through six innings cleanly.

 
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