Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
****OFFICIAL**** Astros / White Sox WS Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wilked
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
After watching many games of both the Cards and 'Stros the last few years, I can say only one thing for certain: I would #### myself if I ever had to step into the batter's box against Brad Lidge.
Tough As Nails
Glave Master
If, God forbid...the Yankees end up facing the Astros in the World Series, can they just play 7 inning games and call it a night?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Hold on.This is COMPLETELY misleading.
The Cardinals have an amazing offense. That hurts Oswalt's stats against St. Louis.
The Astros had a horrid offense until June, then it became average. That vastly helps Mulder's stats.
If you're comparing pitchers like this, then you can't claim the Cardinals' offense as an advantage...because it's built into these stats.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Walker HAS to get back on track and Nunez and Grudz need to be productive from here on out. You know what you're getting from Eck, Pujols, Sanders, and Edmonds every night - for better or worse. Those three guys have got to get it together in the clutch.My brain nearly explodes every time Ray King takes the mound. Hopefully Flores will bring it.
Polecat
Footballguy
St. Louis should be heavily favored going into this series. The Astros starting rotation is the only thing that could keep it competitive. That being said, look for the improbable in the Astros offense coming to life and this series turning into a slugfest. If that happens, the edge goes to the Astros due to their bullpen. For St. Louis to win, they have to keep their bullpen off the mound. Should be a good series to watch.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Yes, it is completely misleading. And you obviously didn't read my post at all to find out why, you just decided to post all about how Mulder pitched well against Houston's mediocre offense, and ignored my point about how Oswalt gave up one run a game more against a much better Cardinals offense.But, you've obviously got the blinders on if you won't even read my post and answer the point, instead of babbling away, so I'll just stop trying now.
4/23: Went the distance in a 1-0, 10-inning win. That's right, Mulder pitched a 10-inning shutout on 101 pitches.
6/5: Got shelled and lasted only three innings, taking the loss.
7/15: Gave up one run in eight innings, and left with the lead. Took a NO-D because Izzy blew the save in the 9th, but the Cards won the game in 13.
9/2: Gave up two runs (one unearned) on just two hits and two walks in eight innings, and left with the lead. Took a NO-D because Izzy blew the save in the 9th, and the Cards lost in 13.
So in four starts sprinkled throughout the season, Mulder pitched at least eight innings three times, and gave up more than one earned run only once.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Go read my point again.If you're comparing how you expect each *team* to do in an individual game based off the starters, that's fine.
But if you want to say...look, Mulder's done much better against the Astros than Oswalt against the Cardinals....AND the Cardinals have a much better offense, so it should be even more of a blowout, that's misleading.
The Cardinals' offensive prowess is figured into Oswalt's stats against St. Louis, and Houston's mediocre offense is figured into Mulder's stats against Houston.
That's all I'm saying.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Remember, coming from the Astros homer:Why does everyone assume that Houston has the better bullpen because of Lidge? Izzy is no slouch himself...and the Cardinals have better middle relief.
That matchup is even.
It comes down to the Astros SP advantage against St. Louis's hitting advantage. That's all.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
By the way, please look past my frustrated tone and look at the information I'm posting.You have to realize I've been a huge Astros homer for most of my life...and I'm living in Cards-land, where everyone wants to tell me "Oooh, the Astros suck so bad...and Pujols rulz...one person even saying I must be quote--a ######ed fa***t for liking the Astros.So I'm going to ask you guys to play nice with me. I'd like to discuss the series, but I know I'm vastly outnumbered here, and in the real world. So respect for the outnumbered would be a little helpful.
Tough As Nails
Glave Master
Yeah...King just lost it. He was solid in 2004. Real solid. Now he seems to have put on 35 pounds and lost 10 mph. Not a good combo.
My brain nearly explodes every time Ray King takes the mound. Hopefully Flores will bring it.
Tough As Nails
Glave Master
Wow. No WAY is Izzy even close to the level Lidge is at. The middle relievers are equally shaky for both teams...but the 'Stros have a guy that can get them 6 outs. That is very, very important. Bullpen edge to the Astros, no question.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Living in Cards-land? Do you mean St. Louis or this message board?I ask because, trust me, no one in St. Louis (where I live) thinks Houston sucks and that this is going to be a walkover. Everyone I talk to is expecting this series to be a dogfight.
caabeel
Footballguy
Okay:1. I read your posts again (and will play nice)
2. I don't understand your reasoning. So I should dismiss the Cardinals offense because Oswalt pitched well against the rest of MLB? I never said "blowout" btw....
3. Of course the Cardinals offensive prowess is figured into Oswalt's stats against the Cardinals.....
4. How else do I figure Mulder's starts against the Astros?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Worse.I live in Columbia, MO (University of Missouri grad student).
Take your average, knowledgable Cardinals' fan (which I've come to respect, and is the reason I can't bring myself to hate the Cardinals) and decrease about 100 IQ points, and add a "know it all" attitude on top.
I don't parade the fact I'm an Astros fan, I'm not that stupid. I just wanted to wear a stupid hat today because of what happened last night.
I didn't expect this today. And the hat's gone into my computer bag. These people are an embarrassment to Cardinals' fans.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
And so I do not forget to say it, Isringhausen and Morris both scare the hell out of me. I think I age six months every time one of those guys takes the mound. And I would like to remind everyone that Jeff Suppan outpitched Roger Clemens in game 7 of the 2004 NLCS, so while the Astros top three starters are a scary bunch, it is not as simple as saying the Astros will win because of them.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Bah. Drunk college students are not an accurate representative sample of what a true Cardinals fan is.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
1. Thank you. I probably won't mind later in the week, but it was a bad decision to wear the hat today.2. No, but you got it in #3.Okay:1. I read your posts again (and will play nice)
2. I don't understand your reasoning. So I should dismiss the Cardinals offense because Oswalt pitched well against the rest of MLB? I never said "blowout" btw....
3. Of course the Cardinals offensive prowess is figured into Oswalt's stats against the Cardinals.....
4. How else do I figure Mulder's starts against the Astros?
3. Yes, it is, and that's my point. If you're comparing Oswalt against the Cards to Mulder against the Astros, that's fine, and perfectly valid. But, if you do that...my point is, you can't add the Cardinals' offensive dominance on top of that, because it's already figured into the pitching stats. That's all.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Clemens scares me, honestly.He's been very unreliable in the playoffs as an Astro. Yes, he pitched miraculously yesterday, but that's not nearly indicative of how he's done as an Astro in the playoffs.
By the way, if you want my prediction, I say Cards in 5. The Astros have a slight pitching edge, but are far, far behind in hitting.
But, I'm still rooting for my boys.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
No, they're not, but I've taken a lot of abuse from very random people.I'm pretty thick skinned (I was a little league umpire as a teenager, then a television reporter for three years as a professional...I can take abuse), but this was ridiculous.Bah. Drunk college students are not an accurate representative sample of what a true Cardinals fan is.
Dr. Pepper
Footballguy
Astros fan here, but really don't think they have a chance.
Dr. Pepper
Footballguy
Astros fan here, but really don't think they have a chance.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Dr. Pepper, are you an Astros fan? How much of a chance do you think they have?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Really? Even though I am a huge Cardinals fan and think they are the better team, I will not be surprised if Houston wins.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Ray King = David Wells?Yeah...King just lost it. He was solid in 2004. Real solid. Now he seems to have put on 35 pounds and lost 10 mph. Not a good combo.
My brain nearly explodes every time Ray King takes the mound. Hopefully Flores will bring it.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
For those who are not aware, Ray King's father just passed away within the last week. He had been sick all summer. That is the main reason why King has been so ineffective this summer.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH "KNOW IT ALLS".HUGS AND KISSES,
MR. KNOW-IT-ALL
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH "KNOW IT ALLS".HUGS AND KISSES,
MR. KNOW-IT-ALL
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Roger Clemens on the DP Show:NL Cy Young? Chris CarpenterNL MVP? Albert PujolsFlattery will get you nowhere, Grandpa.
Tough As Nails
Glave Master
I didn't hear that he passed away. That's too bad. Not to be insensitive...but dozens of athletes lose a parent each season. They are professionals and have to get through it. It shouldn't be an excuse and I don't think it's the "main reason" why he's been ineffective. Not hitting his spots, lack of movement on his pitches and loss of velocity are the reasons he's ineffective.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I agree. I sympathize. But regardless of the reason if he can't get the job done, he can't get the job done. The playoffs are no time for working out your personal issues. I find it telling that LaRussa put Flores into the situations requiring LHP in the Padres series. TLR is all about trusting his guys through thick and thin (See Morris, Matt and Fassero, Jeff), and if he isn't willing to go to King as his first LHP option any longer, that's not a good sign RE: what we should expect from Ray.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I agree with him, and I'm clearly not trying to flatter anyone here.I think the key to this series is Game 1. If Houston wins, they have a reasonable chance...St. Louis could be on the ropes early.
If not, it could be a really, really short series.
snowmonkey501
Footballguy
since the 'stros started out 15-30 they have managed to go 74-43. a not too shabby .632 winning %.the cards went 71-47 over that same span.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Game 1 of the NLCS starts tonight and PTI didn't even discuss it. Sad.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
They gave it about 5 seconds at the end to give Wilbon's prediction.They didn't talk much baseball at all, to be fair. They gave about 1:30 to last night's game...but you think they'd give more than that.
I guess the "Wild Animal" and the sex party=ratings.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Well, this thread sits here and none of us are really discussing it, so is there really much surprise there? I'm officially concerned. The Cardinals bullpen scares me without Reyes, Walker didn't hit at all in the Padres series, our starting pitchers turned schizo the last month of the season, and we've been sitting around for 4 days while the Astros were taking part in a meaningful, challenging series. Here's hoping for a gem from Carp and a win in game 1 to shake the rust off right.
Dr. Pepper
Footballguy
Why is this funny?Dr. Pepper, are you an Astros fan? How much of a chance do you think they have?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
You double-posted.Why is this funny?Dr. Pepper, are you an Astros fan? How much of a chance do you think they have?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I'll be here all game.I'll discuss the game all you want.
I think, as I've said earlier, that Game 1 will decide the entire series. If the Astros win, they have so much momentum that it just might be impossible to stop them.
If not, the Cards got a decent performance from Carpenter, who was struggling, they took out the Astros best pitcher, and they've proven they have no rust.
This game is *very* important.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
That was the worst intro/graphics I've ever seen.This needs to be on a real network.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I like that analysis, which supports the Cards in a longer series, as what I think is going to happen.My entire point just seemed to be ignored, that posting pitchers ERAs against the Cardinals is misleading, because...well, the Cardinals' offense is amazing, and Walter Johnson would struggle to keep his ERA under 4.00 against St. Louis.I'm sorry you feel that I didn't read your post. In the long run, you will find that I often have a lot to say in response to substantial posts. Without any specifics to support your position, I was on my own. Had I known you were professional reposrter and therefore a very important person around here, I would have gone into more detail. Anyway, let's look at the differentials:OFFENSEYes, it is completely misleading. And you obviously didn't read my post at all to find out why, you just decided to post all about how Mulder pitched well against Houston's mediocre offense, and ignored my point about how Oswalt gave up one run a game more against a much better Cardinals offense.But, you've obviously got the blinders on if you won't even read my post and answer the point, instead of babbling away, so I'll just stop trying now.
4/23: Went the distance in a 1-0, 10-inning win. That's right, Mulder pitched a 10-inning shutout on 101 pitches.
6/5: Got shelled and lasted only three innings, taking the loss.
7/15: Gave up one run in eight innings, and left with the lead. Took a NO-D because Izzy blew the save in the 9th, but the Cards won the game in 13.
9/2: Gave up two runs (one unearned) on just two hits and two walks in eight innings, and left with the lead. Took a NO-D because Izzy blew the save in the 9th, and the Cards lost in 13.
So in four starts sprinkled throughout the season, Mulder pitched at least eight innings three times, and gave up more than one earned run only once.
STL R/G: 4.97
HOU R/G: 4.25
STL R/G - HOU R/G: 0.72
Without accounting for injuries or quality of opponent, the Cards were 0.72 runs per game better than the Astros offensively. Given that the league average was 4.45, and the range was from 3.94 (WAS) to 5.03 (CIN), a 0.72 differential is huge. Not as huge as the 1.66 differential in ERAs of Mulder vs HOU and Oswalt vs. STL, though. If we are to toss out the Mulder/Oswalt vs opponents stats, it would have to be for reasons other than "one offense was so much better than the other", because the gap between team production over the full season isn't big enough to explain it all.
DEFENSE
STL RA/G: 3.91
HOU RA/G: 3.74
STL RA/G - HOUS RA/G: (-0.17)
STL had an insignificant edge in staff ERA (3.49 to 3.51), but gave up a lot more unearned runs than the Stros, and therefore gave up more runs. In a short series, a good or bad defensive play here or there can make a big difference. Take last year's NLCS for example - if Edmonds doesn't make that great diving catch, Houston might have spared the Cards the embarrassment of getting swept in the Series. A more meaningful comparison might be giving extra weight to the guys projected to start twice in this series, and removing the 5th starters' numbers completely, but we're getting too close to first pitch for me to do those calcuations myself. At a glance, it looks like that adjustment favors HOU, as Marquis outperformed Rodriguez/Astacio during the season.
I think we're looking at a long series. The prospect of having to beat Pettitte/Oswalt/Clemens at least three times in six tries is a bit daunting, but there's a lot of playoff experience in the Cards' lineup. I think it's going to come down to middle relief usage and effectiveness. The Cards need to get early leads and make the Stros make some tough decisions in the 5th and 6th innings, like making Houston hit for a starter throwing a good game because they need offense wherever they can get it. Lidge will be a 2-inning guy whenever possible, so all the other bullpen decisions move up an inning.
Here's what I think too much stock is being put into: Houston has a better record than St. Louis since the 15-30 start. (this is in response to another poster, but it's relevant) St. Louis had the division won after 45 games. Houston was struggling every single game. Who do you think is going to put 100% into every game? St. Louis could pace themselves, and avoid significant injury, and wearing themselves out. Houston didn't have that option.
And did you mean to say I was a professional reporter or a professional reposter? I have been both in my lifetime.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Yet nobody notices that the last two years, it's been all NL-Central in the NLCS.Screw Atlanta, screw LA, screw SD.
It's all about the Astros and Cardinals.
Honestly, St. Louis is my second-favorite team, and will be rooting for them like crazy if they beat my beloved Astros (I'll probably even go to a WS game...in a *gasp* Cardinals' hat).
But, you guys are the enemy for the next week.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think it is important to remember that while the Astros have Pettitte, whom they didn't have last year, they do not have Beltran or Kent. The Cards do not have Rolen, but do have Carpenter, Mulder and a great leadoff hitter this year. Womack was terrible in the playoffs last year. Eckstein has been good all year and has cranked it up in the playoffs. The Astros took the Cards to seven games last year with a better team than they have this year and as good as their pitching is this year, the Cards are playing better this postseason and are the better team. If they play their best, they will win. It really is that plain and simple.
Last edited by a moderator:
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Houston doesn't have Bagwell, either.But, Ensberg is 10 times better than he was last year, and basically replaces Beltran in the lineup. (Ensberg 2005+Lane 2005 is about equal to Beltran 2004+Ensberg 2004).
So, we really lost a little at 2B, and a lot at 1B.
That, and we gained Pettite, who has the second-best ERA in the NL.
Does that make Houston equal to what they were last year? Who knows.
Regular Crust Pizza
Footballguy
Anybody else getting Angels/sox?I don't want to watch this!
