*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)

[gocolts]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

 

[gocolts]

Hillary's latest ad

If dropping Penn was supposed to remove the conflict of interest between her and McCain's campaign, why is she still doing the work for him?

Here is what Andrew Sullivan has to say about this ad:

This ad has managed to actually shock me. Yes, me, rabid Clinton-hater, second only to Hitchens in Clinton Derangement Syndrome, proud holder of the view that Senator Clinton is one of the ghastliest examples of pure political cynicism and opportunism in public life, an empty, reverberating shell of a human being, a case study in how power and the search for it do indeed in the end corrupt absolutely.

This is far too crude even for Karl Rove. It is a parody of a brutal Rove ad. Without batting an eyelid, Clinton effortlessly adopts the entire worldview of the most cynical of Republican operatives and applies it with the delicacy of a shovel to the likely Democratic party nominee. This is a) how desperate she must know feel; b) how utterly irrelevant it is to her what happens in this election unless she is the next Democratic nominee for president.

Simply put: how could the person who approved this ad and the argument it represents logically vote for Barack Obama over John McCain this fall? If it is an Obama-McCain race, how would that person not feel vindicated if Obama lost? In fact, making Obama lose is now manifestly the prime objective of the Clintons. There is no other plausible interpretation of their recent actions, statements and behavior. I find this pretty gob-smacking as an observer; but if I were a Democrat?

Now answer this question: do you believe that the Clintons actually believe that Obama is an effete, ineffectual elitist piece of roadkill for John McCain ... but still somehow impossible to beat by the rules of the Democratic primary system? Or do they think he's better than that? Are they cynics or narcissists? Or, as anyone with an eye and the stomach can see, some horribly perfect combination of the two?

This ad and Clinton's insistence on personally making this argument again and again in the baldest ad hominem ways in a state critical to Democratic hopes this fall should remove any illusions anyone has about the core character of the junior senator from New York. The best gloss is that her own vanity has genuinely persuaded her that she and she alone could possibly beat John McCain. The worst is that after decades of hardball politicking, she and her husband have become completely indistinguishable from the forces that first tried to destroy them.

Andrew Sullivan is consistently tiresome, but he's right about this one. The "Obama is an elitist" meme is one that probably doesn't work all that well in the Democratic primaries (judging by the reaction to Hillary's use of this theme), but it's great for a general election if you're McCain. Again, it's almost like Hillary is acting as an agent of the McCain campaign. First there was the "3 a.m." ad. Then there was the line about how Hillary knows that she and McCain are both ready to be President but Obama only gave a speech once. Now there's this. I'm pretty sure this is unprecedented in my lifetime.

So you think Hillery should just hand over the nomination and do nothing to prevent a complete disaster from getting in the White House???

If she actually believes that McCain will be a better president than Obama, then she is doing exactly what she should be doing. In fact, once she gets knocked out (and she will), I'd probably have more respect for her if she went ahead and publically backed McCain. But if she acts like this now, and then later backs Obama against McCain, then either way she is a hypocrite.

Hillary did say she and McCain offer experience and Obama offers speeches. Maybe she is also a believer in "Knowing what you are doing" like Obama use to be.

That doesn't come close to making sense.

Probably not to an Obama supporter who is grasping at straws at this point of the nomination process. I will try and spell it out for you. Obama has been elected to the Senate ONE time, and he ran against someone who didn't even live there. He has done pretty much nothing but run for POTUS since he won that ONE election. HTH.

 

[adonis]

Probably not to an Obama supporter who is grasping at straws at this point of the nomination process. I will try and spell it out for you. Obama has been elected to the Senate ONE time, and he ran against someone who didn't even live there. He has done pretty much nothing but run for POTUS since he won that ONE election. HTH.

Are you a Hillary supporter?

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

So how long are you going to whine about that?

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

Were you foaming at the mouth when you typed it?

 

[Trey]

At least we have found a couple guys in recent weeks who make me look really good when it comes to supporting Clinton.

 

[gocolts]

Probably not to an Obama supporter who is grasping at straws at this point of the nomination process. I will try and spell it out for you. Obama has been elected to the Senate ONE time, and he ran against someone who didn't even live there. He has done pretty much nothing but run for POTUS since he won that ONE election. HTH.

Are you a Hillary supporter?

Actually, no. Before this year, 2008, I could never imagine supporting a Clinton over ANYBODY. Then, the Democrats do what they always do. They found the worst possible candidate. It is amazing. The Democrats had this election in the bag this time. Bush made sure of that. To imagine for a moment that the Republicans even have a shot at this election was crazy a year ago. Then the GOP's secret weapon was released, the Democrats themselves. It is as if they can not learn from past mistakes. You can not continuously put up uber liberals and expect to win. Especially one who seems so bitter and disconnected.

 

[gocolts]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

So how long are you going to whine about that?

Someone made the comment so I explained. What's the big deal. Once I found out that the owner of this board was an Obama supporter, it all made since. So I may whine about for ever, when I post here. It was ridiculous.

 

[gocolts]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

Were you foaming at the mouth when you typed it?

Nope.

 

[Sweet J]

Hillery?

I am not sure if I can use her real name on this board. After all, I was suspended for using BO real name.

So how long are you going to whine about that?

Someone made the comment so I explained. What's the big deal. Once I found out that the owner of this board was an Obama supporter, it all made since. So I may whine about for ever, when I post here. It was ridiculous.

perfect. just quoting for posterity.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Probably not to an Obama supporter who is grasping at straws at this point of the nomination process. I will try and spell it out for you. Obama has been elected to the Senate ONE time, and he ran against someone who didn't even live there. He has done pretty much nothing but run for POTUS since he won that ONE election. HTH.

Are you a Hillary supporter?

Actually, no. Before this year, 2008, I could never imagine supporting a Clinton over ANYBODY. Then, the Democrats do what they always do. They found the worst possible candidate. It is amazing. The Democrats had this election in the bag this time. Bush made sure of that. To imagine for a moment that the Republicans even have a shot at this election was crazy a year ago. Then the GOP's secret weapon was released, the Democrats themselves. It is as if they can not learn from past mistakes. You can not continuously put up uber liberals and expect to win. Especially one who seems so bitter and disconnected.

 

[ericttspikes]

Hillary release her taxes yet?

Yup...quietly on a Friday over a week ago. And based on her earnings, she has some nerve stating she "gets" the average gun-totin', Bible-thumpin' yokel. Apparently she's even handing out 'I'm not bitter' pins and bumper stickers.

Yep, Bill and Hillary made over $100 million since vacating the White House and McCain and his wife own EIGHT houses. And yet Obama is the elitist.

She's already overplaying her hand, IMO. The smart move is to let the voters digest and decide. They don't need a lecture on how badly someone gaffed. I was surprised to see the Pittsburgh audience actually turn on her comments. She's walking a tightrope with this "Obama is an elitist" thing. It's not a reasonable argument if you examine the full body of evidence. A grad of Wellesley and Yale law who co-earned 109 million in 7 years is not exactly in tune with blue collar America. Well, none of them are, but she's really pushing her luck.

Yea, while Obama spoke here yesterday, when he addressed those comments some people yelled out "we are bitter!"

And there was this guy. A McCain supporter on Fox News no less. Could it be that Obama just spoke the truth? That's not allowed in politics is it?http://youtube.com/watch?v=N4xPuDgKO04

 

[Sweet J]

Hillary release her taxes yet?

Yup...quietly on a Friday over a week ago. And based on her earnings, she has some nerve stating she "gets" the average gun-totin', Bible-thumpin' yokel. Apparently she's even handing out 'I'm not bitter' pins and bumper stickers.

Yep, Bill and Hillary made over $100 million since vacating the White House and McCain and his wife own EIGHT houses. And yet Obama is the elitist.

She's already overplaying her hand, IMO. The smart move is to let the voters digest and decide. They don't need a lecture on how badly someone gaffed. I was surprised to see the Pittsburgh audience actually turn on her comments. She's walking a tightrope with this "Obama is an elitist" thing. It's not a reasonable argument if you examine the full body of evidence. A grad of Wellesley and Yale law who co-earned 109 million in 7 years is not exactly in tune with blue collar America. Well, none of them are, but she's really pushing her luck.

Yea, while Obama spoke here yesterday, when he addressed those comments some people yelled out "we are bitter!"

And there was this guy. A McCain supporter on Fox News no less. Could it be that Obama just spoke the truth? That's not allowed in politics is it?http://youtube.com/watch?v=N4xPuDgKO04

That guy is awesome:- "so are you a Obama supporter?"

Old guy: [laughs] "no, I'm and old navy vet. I like the man, though. Seems like a bright young man."

- "so who are you supporting?"

Old guy: "probably McCain, if he's still in it."

 

[adonis]

Obama Shows Unexpected PugnacityApril 14, 2008(The Politico) This story was written by Avi Zenilman and Ben Smith.Senator Barack Obama’s instantly infamous remarks on how small-town Americans “cling” to their faith, their guns, and their xenophobia began drawing attention around 3:30 p.m. Friday.Obama’s aides went into radio silence, rebuffing requests to explain or respond while his rivals attacked him. At 6:30, his campaign put out a statement that, instead of explaining his words, threw the criticism back at his rivals. Then, just before 9:00 that evening, the candidate himself responded during a speech in Terre Haute, Indiana, with an attack of his own, expressing incredulity that his rivals had called him “out of touch.”“Out of touch? Out of touch? I mean, John McCain - it took him three tries to finally figure out that the home foreclosure crisis was a problem,” he said, while also criticizing Hillary Clinton for her vote on to make declaring personal bankruptcy harder.“She says I’m out of touch?”The response was signature Obama: Attack first, sort out the details later, if at all. No apology, no immediate regret, just a sharp counterattack. For a candidate sometimes mocked for being too soft to win a political fistfight, he has shown an uncanny ability to take a punch, and then rear back and deliver one in return.When Obama responds this way, it leaves him open to charges that he's undermining his so-called politics of hope. But, showing remarkable dexterity, he has a knack for using these flare-ups to pivot back to the central theme of his candidacy: that politics is broken, and he knows how to change it.Obama, it turns out, has been a devout observer of a philosophy future President Bill Clinton laid out as far back as 1981."When someone is beating you over the head with a hammer, don't sit there and take it,” then-Governor Clinton told Time Magazine. “Take out a meat cleaver and cut off their hand.”Many Democrats believe their two most recent nominees, Al Gore and John Kerry, ignored that rule, and they are loath to nominate another candidate susceptible to being portrayed as weak. So Obama and his inner political circle - strategist David Axelrod and campaign manager David Plouffe - have observed it religiously, dispelling an early perception that the candidate would wilt under fire from Clinton or Republicans.Instead, when under attack, the candidate rarely acknowledges any fault - for such a move would offer critics an opening. In the case of his San Francisco remarks, perhaps the worst gaffe of his career, he conceded Saturday only that “if I worded things in a way that made people offended, I deeply regret that.”Obama’s unexpected pugnacity also extends to include personal responses to tactical assaults, a level of sparring often left to spokespeople.The examples are many, but the pattern first began to take shape last summer after a debate in South Carolina at which Obama said he would personally meet foreign dictators.The remark appeared to be a slip, and in the spin room after the debate, Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, tried to explain it away.But the next day, Clinton told the Quad City Times, an Iowa daily, that Obama had been “naïve and irresponsible” to offer meetings, an attack reported on the paper’s website. That afternoon, Obama himself placed a call to the reporter who wrote the story.It was Clinton, he said, who had been “irresponsible and naïve” to vote to authorize the war in Iraq. And he embraced his promise to meet the hostile leaders, casting Clinton’s reluctance - a line his campaign continued to amplify throughout the fall - as similar to the Bush administration’s stance.Obama has eagerly pursued other attacks. He memorably mocked Clinton for finding evidence of untoward ambition in his elementary school writings. When Clinton called to “tur up the heat” on the Republicans, Obama suggested “more light” instead.In late February, reporters traveling with Obama in Ohio learned - before the story hit the wires or the blogs - from Obama’s staff that McCain had accused the Illinois senator of ignorance of the presence of Al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq.Obama, taking the stage at Ohio State University minutes later, responded with vigor."John McCain thought that he could make a clever point," said Obama. "I have some news for John McCain. And that is that there was no such thing as al-Qaida in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq.”More recently, when faced with the incendiary video of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright attacking Clinton, followed by more video of the minister’s criticism of American, Obama eschewed the counterattacks. But nevertheless he hewed to a familiar course: no apology, no concession of wrongdoing. His position was that he hadn’t been in the pews for Wright’s reported controversial statements.Obama’s immediate responses, the campaign quickly decided, were insufficient. And so just six days later Obama sought to cast the issue in his own terms with a major speech on the easier aspect of Wright’s words to address, race, while ignoring Wright’s anti-American comments.But the most recent flap over his remarks about small-town Pennsylvanians represented a return to form as he moved first to attack Clinton and McCain.Then came what seemed to a departure. In a slow-motion roll-out that may have slightly prolonged the story, Obama tiptoed up to an apology, before returning to his comfort zone. On Sunday evening, with particular glee, he turned to Clinton’s discussion of her childhood hunting."She's running around talking about how this is an insult to sportsmen, how she values the Second Amendment, she's talking like she's Annie Oakley!” he said at a stop in Pennsylvania. “Hillary Clinton's out there like she's on the duck blind every Sunday, she's packin' a six shooter! C'mon! She knows better. That's some politics being played by Hillary Clinton. I want to see that picture of her out there in the duck blinds.”

 

[adonis]

Link to Gallup tracking poll results

Obama moves to largest lead yet in Gallup tracking poll

Three days' worth of polling after the news broke that Sen. Barack Obama said some small-town voters are "bitter," he has edged out to his largest lead yet in Gallup's daily national tracking survey.

Gallup says Obama leads Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 51%-40% according to its Saturday-Monday poll of 1,312 Democrats and voters who "lean" Democratic. Yesterday, Obama lead 50%-40% (matching what had been his largest lead until today). The margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points.

The news about what Obama said broke Friday afternoon.

As usual, we have to say that polls are snapshots of current public opinion -- not forecasts of what will happen on any far-off Election Day.

 

[timschochet]

The above poll may indicate Obama's popularity nationwide...

...or it also may indicate that the Democratic party has taken a swing to the left, which means that Obama may lose the national election in a landslide.

In that case Obama will be the latest of three Presidential candidates in the last 50 years (the other two being Barry Goldwater and George McGovern) to be chosen by the grass roots of their party, and perceived by the general public to represent a more extreme viewpoint than the normal candidate does. Fans of Goldwater and McGovern were extremely passionate about their men; they believed the campaigns were movements and idealistic. They were shocked when their guy was trounced in the general election.

 

[adonis]

The above poll may indicate Obama's popularity nationwide......or it also may indicate that the Democratic party has taken a swing to the left, which means that Obama may lose the national election in a landslide.In that case Obama will be the latest of three Presidential candidates in the last 50 years (the other two being Barry Goldwater and George McGovern) to be chosen by the grass roots of their party, and perceived by the general public to represent a more extreme viewpoint than the normal candidate does. Fans of Goldwater and McGovern were extremely passionate about their men; they believed the campaigns were movements and idealistic. They were shocked when their guy was trounced in the general election.

Obama will have a great ability to appeal to independents and moderates once he secures the party's nomination.His ability to pitch his policies, debate the other side, will not make him appear to be a liberal, or an extreme anything, as he'll likely come off as pretty rational to most americans. He makes good cases for many of his policies in his books, and in his speeches, and I doubt the huge amount of backing he has now will diminish come election time.

 

[gocolts]

New poll out showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, 57% to 37%. Last week it was tied at 45%

 

[commisholio]

New poll out showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, 57% to 37%. Last week it was tied at 45%

That's at least the 3rd time that poll has been posted in this thread. Thanks, though.For actual Obama supporters, I read somewhere (talking points memo I think) that the ARG polls have been among the worst this cycle, so there's some reason to think that this one's an outlier. We'll see next week, I guess.

 

[Trey]

ARG is absolutely worthless.

Clinton is currently up anywhere from 6 to 14 points in Pennsylvania. Take your pick between those numbers.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Just voted for Obama via absentee ballot here in PA. 1-0.

 

[adonis]

There's a debate tomorrow night where more dreck can come up and Obama can have his say and Hillary can have hers.

Expect Obama to have good answers prepared for the "bitter" comments, as he'll be asked about them, as well as the Rev Wright stuff. Expect Hillary to try to drive more wedges, while ultimately trying to keep her nose clean.

Should be interesting, and might sway the direction of the election all the way until next tuesday. Good time for Obama to put a stop loss on his comments that people take issue with, present a good image of himself, and ride it to a narrow loss.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfsiNyjo-6w

He has the ability to handle himself (and the pressure) in a fashion that the other two can only dream about.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Has this response vid been posted yet? (not the april 11 indiana one)

Who is out of touch?

 

[Homer J Simpson]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfsiNyjo-6w

He has the ability to handle himself (and the pressure) in a fashion that the other two can only dream about.

You know what I think a big part of it is? He rarely smiles unless he actually has something to smile about. Guys like Romney, Hillary (hehe) et al constantly have that fake smile plastered on their mugs and they always seem disingenuous because of it. Even McCain defaults to the forced smile a lot of the time. Obama has no problem wearing a normal expression on his face...no problem keeping the smile in his pocket until it's actually appropriate. And because of that, he seems very comfortable in his own skin and therefore puts the people around him at ease.

 

[malice]

New poll out showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, 57% to 37%. Last week it was tied at 45%

These are the numbers you should be more concerned with:

Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race

By Greg Giroux and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff

Is Barack Obama trailing Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania by double digit percentages? Or has he closed the gap to single digits, as recent polls suggest? Could he even win the April 22 primary — a shocking upset that probably would force Clinton to the sidelines? These are among the questions that have the hearts of the punditocracy atwitter in the run-up to the first Democratic presidential balloting in six weeks.

We at CQ Politics are pondering those too. But we look ahead to next week’s vote in Pennsylvania a bit differently: How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?

That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts.

And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.

These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.

Of the state’s remaining 84 slots, only 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state’s remaining 29 seats going to unpledged “superdelegates.”

The 103 district-level delegates are not distributed evenly. Democratic-leaning congressional districts are awarded more delegates than Republican-leaning districts. The state’s 2nd District, a Democratic bastion centered in Philadelphia, has nine district delegates to divvy up among Clinton and Obama. The heavily Republican 9th District, in the south-central part of the state, has just three. (For a district-by-district allocation of delegates, please click here.

One doesn’t need great predictive powers to estimate how many delegates Clinton and Obama will win in most of Pennsylvania’s 19 congressional districts. That’s because the district delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, and each candidate’s delegate allocation is rounded to the nearest whole number. That means the delegate allotments can be the same for a wide range of popular vote percentages.

Consider Pennsylvania’s 5th District, which has four district delegates. The popular vote tally between Clinton and Obama should be close. But for the purposes of awarding district delegates, it doesn’t really matter who wins a tight race because the winner would need to take more than 62.5 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania’s 5th — or in any other four-delegate district — to earn a 3-1 delegate split. (Multiplying four by .625 equals 2.5, so a candidate who receives, say, 65 percent of the vote would receive a delegate share that would be subsequently rounded up to three). So if Clinton defeats Obama, 60 percent to 40 percent, the district delegates would split 2-2; if Obama defeats Clinton, 60 percent to 40 percent, a 2-2 split would also ensue.

In a five-delegate district, a narrow win would yield a 3-2 delegate advantage. A 70 percent super-majority would be needed to win four out of five. For this reason, it’s highly likely that each of the five Pennsylvania districts that award five district delegates will yield 3-2 splits.

One district where the delegate split is more difficult to project is the 2nd, where Obama is expected to easily prevail in that majority-black district. He’ll surely win at least six of the nine district delegates, though CQ politics projects that he will earn a 7-2 split by winning at least 72.2 percent of the district vote. (Going from 6-3 to 7-2 is really a two-delegate gain, when you consider that this is a zero-sum game in which one candidate necessarily wins a delegate at the expense of his or her opponent).

...District by district breakdown continues in article...

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfsiNyjo-6w

He has the ability to handle himself (and the pressure) in a fashion that the other two can only dream about.

You know what I think a big part of it is? He rarely smiles unless he actually has something to smile about. Guys like Romney, Hillary (hehe) et al constantly have that fake smile plastered on their mugs and they always seem disingenuous because of it. Even McCain defaults to the forced smile a lot of the time. Obama has no problem wearing a normal expression on his face...no problem keeping the smile in his pocket until it's actually appropriate. And because of that, he seems very comfortable in his own skin and therefore puts the people around him at ease.

Agreed. He's not faking his grins. Hillary can't seem to wait to flash a phony grin. It's unnerving. At least she's cut down on the cackling a bit.

 

[ericttspikes]

Has this response vid been posted yet? (not the april 11 indiana one)

Who is out of touch?

This is a good one.

 

[ericttspikes]

Here's a new Obama ad.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Here's a new Obama ad.

Good idea...not so great on the execution.

 

[adonis]

Here's a new Obama ad.

Yeah, just kinda left wondering...was that it?

 

[ericttspikes]

Obama in Indiana. I hadn't seen this "bittergate" rebuttal. He might be able to turn this into an advantage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc9PepjyDow

 

[ericttspikes]

Here's a new Obama ad.

This new one's better. Love the booing at Clinton clip.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc73eM0E3Fs

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Here's a new Obama ad.

Solid. Although I absolutely HATE the "price of gas" shtick. I don't give a #### about the price of gas, I give a #### about the billions we give those companies on top of their ungodly profits.

 

[adonis]

Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, IndianaHer formerly double-digit lead is now just a five-point margin in Pennsylvania, survey finds. The reduced margin makes a win for her there less significant. She trails Obama among Hoosiers.By Janet HookLos Angeles Times Staff Writer2:00 PM PDT, April 15, 2008WASHINGTON — With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid -- even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination.What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided -- 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina."I could be one who goes into the voting box and makes up my mind at the polls," Gwen Hodavance, a receptionist in Paoli, Pa., said in an interview after participating in the poll. "Obama is the best candidate, the best articulator of the mood for change, but I don't know how he would be for president."The results underscore the rough road ahead for Clinton in the balloting in Pennsylvania and, on May 6, in Indiana and North Carolina.With the Illinois senator leading Clinton in the number of convention delegates selected, states won and popular votes cast, she is hoping that a decisive win in Pennsylvania and a victory in Indiana will slow Obama's momentum and bolster her plea for support from the party's superdelegates -- the elected officials, party leaders and activists who likely will decide the nomination.The poll, conducted under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 623 voters in Pennsylvania, 687 in Indiana and 691 in North Carolina who expected to cast Democratic ballots. The margin of sampling error for the findings in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points.The telephone interviews took place Thursday through Monday, meaning the bulk were conducted just as controversy broke out over an Obama remark widely criticized as demeaning rural voters in Pennsylvania. He suggested that for some residents of small towns, their commitment to gun rights, religious faith and hostility toward foreign trade had its roots in their "bitterness" about economic hardships.No poll question was asked specifically about the comment.However, voters were asked about another controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month.In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.Many Democratic voters, however, see Obama's association with Wright as posing a problem for him in the general election -- 46% in Pennsylvania said they expected it to hamper him in a contest with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; in Indiana, 47% agreed with that, and in North Carolina, 42%."I can't help but thinking the church is a big influence on him," said Roberta Rowe, a retiree in West Middlesex, Pa. "I'd like to feel completely comfortable, but that one issue there is really gnawing at me."In the follow-up interviews, some voters complained that the criticism of his pastor and the allegations that Obama is elitist are sideshows."All this back-and-forth is not really staying on the issues that I want to hear from" the White House candidates, said Joseph Robinson, a disabled worker in Lafayette, Ind. He was unmoved by Clinton's charge that Obama, because of his small-town comment, had shown he was out of touch with many Americans."She went to Yale, he went to Harvard," said Robinson, referring to the respective law schools from which they graduated.The poll found Clinton leading Obama 46% to 41% in Pennsylvania -- a far cry from the double-digit margins she held in earlier polls.In Indiana, where little polling has occurred, previous surveys gave Clinton the edge. The Times/Bloomberg poll put Obama ahead, 40% to 35%.The leads in Pennsylvania and Indiana are within the poll's margin of sampling error.In North Carolina, the poll found, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 34% -- a finding in keeping with expectations that he will do well in the state, which has a large African American population. Among blacks there, 71% supported Obama; only 5% backed Clinton and 24% were undecided.One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.Looking ahead to the general election, many Democrats -- including some Clinton backers -- appear to have concluded that Obama might be in a better position to defeat McCain. In Indiana, for instance, 37% said they thought Obama would fare better against McCain in November, compared to 18% who said Clinton was more likely to beat the Republican."I would prefer Clinton, but Obama has less baggage to throw darts at," said Eric Beiz, a realtor in Indianapolis. "She is going to have a tough time."Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared to 26% who thought that of Clinton."She doesn't tell the truth a lot," said Brannon Crace, a store manager in Frankfurt, Ind. "We've already been through the Clinton era."In all three states, Clinton was seen as better equipped to handle trade and healthcare policy. But she does not appear to have been as persuasive in making a core argument of her campaign -- that she would be better prepared to lead the nation's military and foreign policy.Asked who would be better as commander in chief, voters in North Carolina chose Obama, 45% to 28%; in Indiana, Obama was chosen 37% to 29%. Only in Pennsylvania did voters prefer Clinton as commander in chief, 44% to 39%.There are some ominous signs that the party will not easily unify after a long and contentious primary fight. Fully 30% of Clinton supporters in North Carolina said they would switch to McCain if Obama is the nominee (only 14% of Obama backers would defect if Clinton was the nominee)."McCain, I like him better than Obama," said Robert D. Hawkins Jr., a disabled veteran from Lenoir, N.C., who already has voted absentee for Clinton. "He's a Vietnam veteran, and I am too. I'm still learning more things about Obama."

 

[Sammy3469]

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

For the life of me, I can't figure out why places like NC and VA are so different than everywhere else. My mom and dad live in the RDU area and my mom says that she and all her friends are voting for Obama. Keep in mind these are a bunch of 60ish women who presumably are Hillary's target audience. Heck, they even went to see Bill about two weeks ago (I never would have thought he's be talking to 300 people at the (Cary senior center, but he did) and it still didn't sway them.

 

[BassNBrew]

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

For the life of me, I can't figure out why places like NC and VA are so different than everywhere else. My mom and dad live in the RDU area and my mom says that she and all her friends are voting for Obama. Keep in mind these are a bunch of 60ish women who presumably are Hillary's target audience. Heck, they even went to see Bill about two weeks ago (I never would have thought he's be talking to 300 people at the (Cary senior center, but he did) and it still didn't sway them.

The enlightened confederancy oVVns the racist northeast and west.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

For the life of me, I can't figure out why places like NC and VA are so different than everywhere else. My mom and dad live in the RDU area and my mom says that she and all her friends are voting for Obama. Keep in mind these are a bunch of 60ish women who presumably are Hillary's target audience. Heck, they even went to see Bill about two weeks ago (I never would have thought he's be talking to 300 people at the (Cary senior center, but he did) and it still didn't sway them.

The enlightened confederancy oVVns the racist northeast and west.

Nah...you guys are just more misogynistic than racist.

 

[Orange Crush]

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

For the life of me, I can't figure out why places like NC and VA are so different than everywhere else. My mom and dad live in the RDU area and my mom says that she and all her friends are voting for Obama. Keep in mind these are a bunch of 60ish women who presumably are Hillary's target audience. Heck, they even went to see Bill about two weeks ago (I never would have thought he's be talking to 300 people at the (Cary senior center, but he did) and it still didn't sway them.

It's tough to be a Red State Democrat. We've been hearing our neighbors' snide comments about the Clintons for 12 years. Another 4 years is just intolerable. Having the other candidate's main message a denial of the vile politics of old and the hope of being able to talk civilly becomes something to grab onto.

 

[All Your Base Are Belong To Us]

How's the latest news affecting his polling numbers?

If anything it seems to have helped rather than hurt. I am very impressed with his handling of the situation.I was napping and only had one ear open, but I hope I get the gist right:Eugene Robinson on MSNBC: As a black man I have to say that the biggest advantage I got growing up in America is that people constantly underestimated me. If I were Obama, I would say "keep on undersestimating".Not as funny when I type it out, but it was pretty good.

Eugene Robinson is awesome.

 

[Josie Maran]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politi...clinton_ol.html

Bill Clinton: Older voters too savvy to fall for Obama

Email|Link|Comments (179) Posted by Scott Helman, Political Reporter April 15, 2008 05:18 PM

QUAKERTOWN, Pa. -- Older voters gravitate to Hillary Clinton because they're too wise to be fooled by Barack Obama's rhetoric, former president Bill Clinton told Pennsylvania voters today.

Clinton's comments, to a packed high school gym about an hour north of Philadelphia, were one part presidential politics and one part legacy protection. His beef was with Obama's contention that many of the problems facing the country today were simmering long before President Bush took office seven-plus years ago.

"I think there is a big reason there's an age difference in a lot of these polls," he said. "Because once you've reached a certain age, you won't sit there and listen to somebody tell you there's really no difference between what happened in the Bush years and the Clinton years; that there's not much difference in how small-town Pennsylvania fared when I was president, and in this decade."

"So I think it's important that we get to the truth of this," Clinton continued, going on to compare his and Bush's record on jobs, family incomes, and other measures.

Last week, however, Clinton seemed to suggest that older voters might be more absent-minded than wise. Defending Hillary Clinton's faulty recollection of landing under sniper fire during a 1996 humanitarian visit to Bosnia, the former president said of her critics, "When they're 60, they'll forget something when they're tired at 11 o'clock at night, too."

At various points in his nearly hour-long appearance at Quakertown Community High School, Clinton cautioned the hundreds gathered to hear him against voting on history. (His defense of his White House record notwithstanding, of course.) Despite press coverage about how historic a campaign this is, Clinton said, "the history doesn't amount to a hill of beans. All that matters is the future. Who will make the best future for you?"

And later, after he had run through, in great detail, the ins and outs of America's foreign and domestic policy challenges, Clinton returned to the theme of substance versus abstraction. Hillary Clinton, he said, would be a "servant leader," and voters had to decide whether that was more important than electing a "symbolic leader." "You gotta decide," he said, as if he had laid out even arguments for each.

:neckpunch:

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Common sense. Speaking to people like they are adults. As if they can be thoughtful, intelligent and understanding.

WASHINGTON, Pa. - Democratic Sen. Barack Obama on Tuesday dismissed a voter's suggestion that when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton called him elitist it "bordered on uppity."

"It's politics," the presidential candidate told a town-hall meeting on veterans affairs. "This is what we do politically, when we start getting behind in races. We start going on the attack."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080415/ap_on_el_pr/obama

 

[Gopher State]

Obama leads Clinton in S.D.

12-point margin in DWU poll

Jonathan Ellis • jonellis@argusleader.com • April 16, 2008

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton by more than 10 percentage points among registered Democrats in South Dakota, according to an independent poll released Tuesday.

Obama led Clinton 46 percent to 34 percent in a poll conducted by Dakota Wesleyan University. However the results are still within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 6 percent.

The poll is the only known statewide measure of the Democratic primary.

Obama has won the nominating contests of every state surrounding South Dakota, with the exception of Montana, which holds its primary on June 3, the same day as South Dakota.

"I wasn't particularly surprised with those numbers," said Don Simmons, director of the McGovern Center for Leadership and Public Service at Dakota Wesleyan. "However, I will say there hasn't been any real campaigning in South Dakota yet, and there's a possibility that could change quickly."

The poll was conducted from March 24 to April 3. At the time, both candidates were wrestling with controversies: Obama with the comments of his former pastor and Clinton backtracking from accusations that she embellished statements about a 1996 trip to Bosnia.

Since then, Obama has had to explain comments he made at a San Francisco fundraiser in which he characterized rural voters as "bitter" because of economic distress. Those people, he said, "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment." Both Clinton and the presumptive Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, have attacked Obama for the remarks.

"If everything is still in play on June 3, and Hillary Clinton comes here, she might be able to use those comments about guns and religion to her advantage," Simmons said.

Obama apologized for the remarks and said he could have chosen his words more carefully. Nathan Peterson, Obama's state director in South Dakota, said the "essence" of those remarks were accurate.

"I think many South Dakota voters understand that Washington has left them behind," he said. Peterson predicted that Clinton would suffer for trying to use the words to her advantage.

Obama enjoys several advantages in South Dakota: His campaign has an office in South Dakota - Clinton's doesn't. The bulk of the state's top Democrats are behind him, including Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Last week, six South Dakota tribal leaders endorsed Obama, and today, a number of Democratic state lawmakers are set to endorse him.

State Rep. Marc Feinstein, D-Sioux Falls, won't be among them. He is supporting Clinton.

Feinstein credits Obama for putting together a good campaign, but, "That doesn't necessarily translate to being the best presidential candidate."

Feinstein thinks the poll numbers could turn once the candidates begin campaigning in the state. Plans for a Clinton campaign event could come after next week's primary in Pennsylvania.

"My understanding is that after Pennsylvania, they're going to hit the ground running," he said. "She is going to be here between now and June 3."

Obama is also expected to campaign in South Dakota by May, Peterson said.

Regardless of who emerges as the Democratic nominee, that person is going to have a hard time winning the state in the general election, according to the poll results.

In hypothetical matchups, McCain had 51 percent to Obama's 34 percent. Against Clinton, McCain had a 59 percent to 30 percent advantage.

Reach reporter Jonathan Ellis at 605-575-3629.

 

[Sammy3469]

Obama enjoys several advantages in South Dakota: His campaign has an office in South Dakota - Clinton's doesn't. The bulk of the state's top Democrats are behind him, including Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

How does she still not have an office there?

 

[djcolts]

Obama enjoys several advantages in South Dakota: His campaign has an office in South Dakota - Clinton's doesn't. The bulk of the state's top Democrats are behind him, including Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

How does she still not have an office there?

It's a small state - it "doesn't count"

 

[Spiderman]

This dude comes down to Earth as a typical politician every day. And for a candidate that little is truly known about, that has to be concerning.

Can someone tell me something, anything, that this guy brings to the table other than being a good speaker...when he's reading a teleprompter? And don't tell me its the fact he hasn't been in Washington very long, because that just tells me he's inexperienced in how things work (as if his Jimmy Carteresque foreign policy agenda didn't already spell that out for you).

 

[Josie Maran]

lol @ him talking about bankruptcy being a "fair shake" for people "right here" in Pennsylvania. Because bankruptcy is all about fairness. Also, all the industries he talks about as evil make me feel like a Republican. Mortgage crisis? Right here. Drug companies? Yup, wife pushes those.

maybe you are...

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Can someone tell me something, anything, that this guy brings to the table other than being a good speaker...

There's a thread around here somewhere with some info on him.

 

[Josie Maran]

This dude comes down to Earth as a typical politician every day. And for a candidate that little is truly known about, that has to be concerning. Can someone tell me something, anything, that this guy brings to the table other than being a good speaker...when he's reading a teleprompter? And don't tell me its the fact he hasn't been in Washington very long, because that just tells me he's inexperienced in how things work (as if his Jimmy Carteresque foreign policy agenda didn't already spell that out for you).

Wheee! Six more months of this.

 

[Josie Maran]

Can someone tell me something, anything, that this guy brings to the table other than being a good speaker...

There's a thread around here somewhere with some info on him.

Link?