fightingduck
Footballguy
I see the distinction and I mostly agree. There's an important distinction when looking at the history of US income tax revenues. From its introduction in 1913 up through the 1970s, more and more people have been subjected to it. You are correlating rate increases with rev as % of GDP. I think the better correlation is the number of people and thier income that have been subjected to those rates - this better explains why tax revenues have increased. Marginal rates have bounced all over the place over the past 70 years.One reason that more and more people are subjected to taxes at higher rates is that income taxes were not always adjusted for inflation. This has mostly been corrected for income taxes (not capital gains taxes). The result is tax revenues have gone up, but again that is not due to marginal tax rates being increased. It has to do with more and more people with lower incomes being subjected to higher tax rates.You're right if we're talking about absolute revenues, but I meant tax revenues as a percentage of GDP. GDP going up won't, on its own, increase tax revenues as a percentage of GDP (except to the extent that it puts more people in the higher tax brackets -- but that effect is due to an effective increase in the marginal rates people are paying).Over the nation's history, tax revenues as a percentage of GDP have increased quite a bit, as have tax rates. I don't think the correlation is coincidental. The Laffer curve is real, but for most of the nation's history we've apparently been below the revenue-maximizing tax rates; so increasing rates has tended to increase revenues.Actually, real supply-side cuts (as in the 20s, 60s, and 80s) increased revenues quite a bit. Supply side cuts are only those at the top end marginal rates and capital gains cuts. Laffer researchThe Bush tax cuts were only in part supply-side cuts. There was some pull down in revenue from the cuts at the lower end. Cutting the lowest income rate from 15% to 10% will result in a revenue decline - probably dollar for dollar. Same with the marraige penalty fix - a revenue loser. Behavior is affected only at the highest end of the range.Taxes have been raised a lot more often than they've been cut. So we'd get a bigger sample size by asking whether, in general, increasing tax rates has increased tax revenues. The obvious answer is yes. Both tax rates and tax revenues have increased somewhat steadily throughout our nation's history.If increasing tax rates generally increases tax revenues, a natural corollary is that decreasing tax rates would generally decrease tax revenues.Oh, OK. No, in general tax cuts have decreased revenue. I am only aware of one that mainstream economists agree resulted in increased revenue (the income tax cut reducing the 90% marginal rate at the top bracket).Well in general have tax cuts increased revenues more times then not in the history of this country? I hope that isnt a meaningless question and it should be able to be answered by someone in the know.
Another point about increasing revenues over history is that revenues will increase if nothing is done and the economy is growing. Revenues will decrease if nothing is done and the economy shrinks. I'll look for a link, but the major driver of tax revenues is the size of the economy. Rates have little direct effect (except the capital gains rate becuase people almost completely control the timing of gains), they have more indirect effect on economic activity.
The Laffer curve is only relavant at the top marginal tax rate (Laffer has written about this personally). You can always increase revenue by increasing the payroll tax or the lowest brackets. The rising tax revenue is a result of wage earners entering the lowest bracket and moving up through them.


You too. I'd welcome a discussion of the relative fairness of taxing money earned from labor versus returned from capital investments.