bigbottom
Footballguy
What is your wife's basis for leaning toward McCain after she was leaning Clinton?
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*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter adonis
- Start date
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
For real. What has McCain said that seperates him from any of the Bush policies?
adonis
Footballguy
Welcome aboard.Don't worry too much about your wife just yet. I think once the campaign against McCain starts in earnest, people like your wife will start to see that he's too closely aligned to Bush and that if they want the country to take a new direction, Obama is the way to go. So long as you keep feeding her the merits of Obama and his differences with McCain become more stark, she should come around
.Glad you've joined up with us...there's plenty of room on the Obama bus. We'll save your wife a seat too, just in case.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
LOL @ thinking Clinton bows out after a victory. She's not out until her debt is covered.
Tonights victory speech: "Please donate at Hillary.com!"
Tonights victory speech: "Please donate at Hillary.com!"
adonis
Footballguy
I don't think she bows out until after the MI/FL controversy is settled, and that's at the end of this month I believe.
DanFouts
Footballguy
She's a moderate Republican. She liked Hillary cause of her moderate ideas (and I am sure gender). She thinks Obama is too liberal, and when Hillary drops out I think she will vote her pocketbook. I am working on her "making the sacrifice" of possible higher taxes for a once in a lifetime chance at a fundamental shift in global perspective that I think would come in an Obama adminstration versus a McCain one. We'll see.....
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DanFouts
Footballguy
True enough....I think I am going to forward her this editorial I saw today in the Post.....it's a nice piece...McCain in the MudWelcome aboard.Don't worry too much about your wife just yet. I think once the campaign against McCain starts in earnest, people like your wife will start to see that he's too closely aligned to Bush and that if they want the country to take a new direction, Obama is the way to go. So long as you keep feeding her the merits of Obama and his differences with McCain become more stark, she should come around.
Glad you've joined up with us...there's plenty of room on the Obama bus. We'll save your wife a seat too, just in case.
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, May 13, 2008; Page A15
In 2000, I boarded John McCain's campaign bus, the Straight Talk Express, and, in a metaphorical sense, never got off. Here, truly, was something new under the political sun -- a politician who bristled with integrity and seemed to have nothing to hide. I continue to admire McCain for those and other reasons, but the bus I once rode has gone wobbly. Recently, it veered into the mud.
I have in mind McCain's charge that Barack Obama is the favored presidential candidate of Hamas. The citation for this remark is the statement of Ahmed Yousef, a Hamas political adviser, who said, "We like Mr. Obama, and we hope that he will win the election." Yousef likened Obama to John F. Kennedy and said that Obama "has a vision to change America" and with it the world. Yousef apparently got so carried away that he forgot that Obama has repeatedly called Hamas a "terrorist organization."
McCain seems to have forgotten that, too. His campaign has sent out an e-mail showing how guilt by association really works. "Barack Obama's foreign policy plans have even won him praise from Hamas leaders," it said. The message went on to claim that Obama's foreign policy positions have earned him "kind words" from Hamas.
Never mind that this was the sort of campaigning that McCain vowed to eschew. More to the point is what McCain said in his own defense. Not only was Yousef's praise of Obama "a legitimate point of discussion," he said, but everyone should understand that McCain himself will be "Hamas's worst nightmare." This aspect of McCain is my worst nightmare.
Just a day before McCain made that statement, Cindy McCain appeared on the "Today" show and responded to questions about her husband's age. She described a veritable Energizer Bunny who, among other things, plans to hike the Grand Canyon this summer. "He's just a ball of fire," she said.
At 71, McCain would be the oldest man ever elected president, and so age has to be a consideration. My concern for the moment, though, is not McCain's physical age but his intellectual age -- his willingness to revise his views and grapple with the new. Thus far, he has shown scant desire to do any of that.
He's been running around the country costumed as a George W. Bush conservative. McCain's tax plan is a joke, and his foreign policy is frightening.
When McCain says that he would be Hamas's worst nightmare, what in the world is he talking about? Almost on a daily basis, Hamas launches rockets into southern Israel, occasionally killing some poor soul. The latest victim was a woman of about 70 who was killed yesterday. Israel usually retaliates, and Palestinians -- some of them just as innocent as the Israeli victim -- are killed. You would think that Israel would be Hamas's worst nightmare, but aside from the occasional -- and fruitless -- retaliatory raid, it cannot figure out how to stop Hamas's deadly activities. What would McCain do that Israel has not?
McCain supports the Iraq war. But Iraq is still a mess. Iran has gained influence there and elsewhere in the region. Syria and Iran together have made Hezbollah, another terrorist organization, an important, if not dominant, factor in Lebanon. What would McCain do about this? Would he bomb Hezbollah? Israel has already done that. Would he occupy southern Lebanon? Israel has done that, too. Has he noticed that all this military force has accomplished next to nothing? What are the particulars of the nightmare he has in mind for a good chunk of the Middle East?
I hate to say it, but Yousef has a point. The Middle East desperately needs supple minds that are not mired in the past. I look at Gaza and don't know what to do. I have supported Israel in its policies there, but I have to admit that nothing has been gained from the non-recognition of Hamas. War doesn't work. Isolation doesn't work. For Israel, leaving Gaza didn't work, and, surely, McCain's threat to Hamas will not give it a headache -- a belly laugh is more like it.
The most admirable of McCain's qualities -- his life story, his integrity -- make him particularly well suited to accomplish the next president's primary task, restoring the American people's trust in their government. But ideas matter, and on the Middle East, McCain not only has little to say that is interesting but, in his swipe at Obama, a distinctly ugly way of saying it.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Boy did I read THAT wrong.
adonis
Footballguy
flufhed
Footballguy
Me, too GB.
Sup_Yo
Footballguy
I swear every speech I hear from her... that's one of the first statements she makes. Obviously she's just in it to cover her loans.
bigbottom
Footballguy
Ahem, the magic number is 2209.:movingthegoalpost:
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NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Jesus that was quick. What, all of 15 seconds into her victory speech?
Gopher State
Footballguy
W.Va. blowout bolsters Clinton's resolve
USA TODAY
Hillary Rodham Clinton crushed Barack Obama in the West Virginia primary Tuesday — a victory that was surely personally satisfying but came as the Democratic presidential nomination is nearly in the grasp of her rival.
"There are some who have wanted to cut this race short," Clinton told raucous, cheering supporters in Charleston, but she left no doubt she plans to stay in the race through the final contests.
"I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard," she said, calling herself a stronger candidate in a general election and a better-prepared president.
Obama, who had made just three campaign stops in West Virginia, was campaigning instead in Cape Girardeau, Mo. — a battleground state in the fall — and focusing on presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
"There is a lot of talk these days about how the Democratic party is divided," he said, "but I'm not worried because I know that we'll be able to come together quickly behind a common purpose."
Still, surveys of voters as they left polling places spotlighted Obama's difficulty in winning over white, working-class voters who have been a mainstay of Clinton's support and who dominate the Mountain State's electorate.
She won white women by 3-1 and white men by 2-1. Whites without a college degree voted for her by 3-1.
Seven of 10 voters said Clinton shared their core values; fewer than half said that of Obama. Race was also a factor: One in five said it was important in their vote. Of those, 85% backed Clinton.
Only a third of Clinton supporters said they would vote for Obama in November if he is nominated. Nearly as many said they would defect to McCain. A quarter said they'd stay home.
Obama's campaign distributed a strategy memo that downplayed the importance of West Virginia's 28 delegates, likely to split 19 for her, nine for him. Over the past week, the memo noted, Obama has been endorsed by 27 of the party leaders known as superdelegates.
USA TODAY
Hillary Rodham Clinton crushed Barack Obama in the West Virginia primary Tuesday — a victory that was surely personally satisfying but came as the Democratic presidential nomination is nearly in the grasp of her rival.
"There are some who have wanted to cut this race short," Clinton told raucous, cheering supporters in Charleston, but she left no doubt she plans to stay in the race through the final contests.
"I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard," she said, calling herself a stronger candidate in a general election and a better-prepared president.
Obama, who had made just three campaign stops in West Virginia, was campaigning instead in Cape Girardeau, Mo. — a battleground state in the fall — and focusing on presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
"There is a lot of talk these days about how the Democratic party is divided," he said, "but I'm not worried because I know that we'll be able to come together quickly behind a common purpose."
Still, surveys of voters as they left polling places spotlighted Obama's difficulty in winning over white, working-class voters who have been a mainstay of Clinton's support and who dominate the Mountain State's electorate.
She won white women by 3-1 and white men by 2-1. Whites without a college degree voted for her by 3-1.
Seven of 10 voters said Clinton shared their core values; fewer than half said that of Obama. Race was also a factor: One in five said it was important in their vote. Of those, 85% backed Clinton.
Only a third of Clinton supporters said they would vote for Obama in November if he is nominated. Nearly as many said they would defect to McCain. A quarter said they'd stay home.
Obama's campaign distributed a strategy memo that downplayed the importance of West Virginia's 28 delegates, likely to split 19 for her, nine for him. Over the past week, the memo noted, Obama has been endorsed by 27 of the party leaders known as superdelegates.
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NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Ouch.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Meh.It doesn't change a thing. Hillary's going nowhere. Obama wasn't going to win WV in the GE. A blowout here was expected. Hillary scores big with the hillbillies....super for her.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
This. Is. HUGE!
timschochet
Footballguy
No African-American candidate has ever lost West Virginia and gone on to win the nomination and the Presidency.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
The wind has never blown more than 30 mph in Sacramento, California when there's a full moon and Venus and Jupiter align andhad a black woman become the commissioner of baseball. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I can't stand Hillary Clinton, but what she just said is right. The general election is always won in the swing states, and she has won most of them. It is not gonna matter, as Obama all but has it wrapped up, but I still believe she would stand a better chance at winning in November than Obama will.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
If this is true, why is she losing? If she's the better candidate, she ought to be winning by now. Right?
timschochet
Footballguy
Oh yeah? Well next year when Bud Selig is handing the baton over to Condi Rice, you'll be at a space observatory and changing your tune, I predict.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't think it is that simple. Obama beat her in a lot of states that the Democrats either almost never win or always win in the general election. In the swing states, the ones that historically could go either way, she has faired much, much better than Obama.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
You're deluded. But, that's ok. GO HILLARY!!!! YOU GO GIRL!!!!
whoknew
Footballguy
The better candidate in the democrat primaries and caucuses is not necessarily the better candidate in the GE.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
There are a thousand ways to make the math work in the electoral college. Her arguments are largely based on 2004.Hillary's only hope is to convince supers that she's more "electable." Fine. Beat Obama. Should have been easy.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
No, I am not. It is pretty simple, really. To win the election in November, you have to be able to win the swing states. Clinton has done much better than Obama in those swing states. That is a fact. Trust me...she is the last person I want to see in the White House next January, but I think she would have a better chance at beating McCain than Obama would.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
For the sake of taking this argument seriously, name all of the "swing states."
skol asylum
Footballguy
Nevada? What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?
cobalt_27
Footballguy
In 2004,
Bush won Iowa by 1%. Obama beat Hillary.
Bush won Colorado by 5%. Obama crushed Hillary.
Bush won Missouri by 7%. Obama beat Hillary.
Kerry barely beat bush in Wisconsin by less than 1%. Obama killed Hillary there.
Kerry won in Oregon by 4%. Obama will beat Hillary there.
Bush won Nevada by 4%. Hillary beat Obama.
Bush won New Mexico by 1%. Hillary beat Obama.
Kerry won Pennsylvania narrowly. Hillary beat Obama.
What are your other "swing" states?
Bush won Iowa by 1%. Obama beat Hillary.
Bush won Colorado by 5%. Obama crushed Hillary.
Bush won Missouri by 7%. Obama beat Hillary.
Kerry barely beat bush in Wisconsin by less than 1%. Obama killed Hillary there.
Kerry won in Oregon by 4%. Obama will beat Hillary there.
Bush won Nevada by 4%. Hillary beat Obama.
Bush won New Mexico by 1%. Hillary beat Obama.
Kerry won Pennsylvania narrowly. Hillary beat Obama.
What are your other "swing" states?
timschochet
Footballguy
The battle is over. Obama is the Democratic candidate. We'll never know how Clinton would have done in the general. (How would Green Bay have done in the Superbowl?) It's useless, IMO, to argue it anymore, because between now and November a million things are going to happen that will change the election again. Obama may turn states that were red into swing states. OTOH, it may be back to Florida and Ohio again. It's simply impossible to predict at this point. But the important thing now is to discuss how McCain and Obama match up against each other and forget talking about Hillary. She's a done deal.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Didn't Obama get more delegates out of that primary over Hillary?That is a swing state I didn't include above.Nevada? What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?
cobalt_27
Footballguy
I know. But, what will SofaKings and the other Hillary supporters do without this to cling onto for dear life? They have to still believe in this fantasy.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Just an FYI: Hillary would get CRUSHED in the general election, in case you haven't been following things too closely. Her negative ratings indicate that too many people (myself included) can't stand her. She would have had no shot against McCain.I know you're a Hillary honk. I'm just telling you, for the sake of the party, it's a damn good thing she ran an awful campaign and lost to Obama.
timschochet
Footballguy
I gotta say, as a McCain supporter, I'm not confident at all at this point. Of course things could change. It surprises me how much the conservative talk show hosts are buying into the Clinton spin, and predicting there is no way Obama can win the general. You know the line: he can't win with eggheads and African-Americans.
But to me far more decisive and worrisome for Republicans than this viewpoint is the results in the congressional races recently. When Dems are winning seats that have been red for decades, you know change is in the air. If Obama can bring all the new voters to November, and if he can retain enough of the Hillary supporters in the big states (and I don't really see why he can't do both of these things) he will win not just a victory, but an overwhelming one with a Democrat landslide. I don't want to see this, but it could very well happen.
But to me far more decisive and worrisome for Republicans than this viewpoint is the results in the congressional races recently. When Dems are winning seats that have been red for decades, you know change is in the air. If Obama can bring all the new voters to November, and if he can retain enough of the Hillary supporters in the big states (and I don't really see why he can't do both of these things) he will win not just a victory, but an overwhelming one with a Democrat landslide. I don't want to see this, but it could very well happen.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Incisive as ever.
timschochet
Footballguy
Thank you. I try.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Honestly, once McCain gets into a real race here...I think he's going to get CRUSHED by Obama. He's flubbing all over himself (without anybody in his way), and his vision for the direction of this country is no real departure from Bush's. And, Obama is going to expose both of these realities once those two go head-to-head. I think McCain is going to get thrashed in the GE.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
SofaKings is not a Hillary supporter. He is just like Moe Green and Rayder who claim to be independents, but do nothing but criticize the left and a give a free pass to the right. They've been doing it for years. This should be no surprise.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Figures.So, seriously. Who are the true Hillary honks on this board? Trey gave her up, recently, and is now on board with Obama. But, who else here--anywhere--actually supports that woman other than those who are 65+ or single women over 45 with cats?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
I'm cautiously optimistic that this is true.If McCain were the McCain of 2000, he would be a much more formidable opponent. The problem for him is that he's redefined himself to comport with the republican base. The prime reason he even survived the primary season was due to his alignment with Bush on Iraq. That might have won him the nom, but it won't guarantee much else. As many have said, McCain is a woefully flawed candidate at this point.Obama has his flaws as well (they all do), but many of these are superficial and can be addressed over time. His "inexperience" is eroding with each passing day, and Hillary can be thanked for having accelerated the vetting process. I guess she's been good for something. Youth versus old age never ends well for the old guy, and it really won't end well for the old guy who is joined at the hip with a terribly unpopular president. Once things move head-to-head between McCain and Obama, these distinctions will be there for all to see. McCain of 2000 would have measured up nicely against a newer senator, but not now. Not after eight years of flailing under Bush.I think the odds are good that Obama will win this going away when it's all said and done, but I never take anything for granted in politics. I do know that McCain does not match up well with Obama at all, and certainly he's not a good candidate in a "change" election.
timschochet
Footballguy
Unfortunately I agree with you. We'll see if something changes, but as I say, I'm not real optimistic.
SofaKings
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Looks like some Obama supporters were in a bad mood last night. I wonder why.I've never claimed to be an independant. Tsk, tsk 'hack.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Environmental Ecomomics isn't my field, but I'm pretty sure Mankiw is misstating this. From a purely economic standpoint, it doesn't matter whether you give away carbon permits or whether the government auctions them off. The result is the same as a pigouvian tax either way. (At least in theory. In practice, you run into problems with auction design if you go with Mankiw's system, and you can bump into problems associated with illiquid markets if you the government issues permits for free. I'm not very familiar with the technical specifics of this particular market, so maybe there's something I'm missing here).There's a political issue here, of course. Should the government confiscate profits from carbon emitters, or should we leave those profits floating around in the private sector? Reasonable people can disagree on that one, but it's misleading to suggest that a Pigouvian tax is economically optimal but cap-and-trade (with or without auctions) isn't.
Trey
Footballguy
I think my personal favorite touch on the night was that in the Nebraska primary (which is worthless) more people participated than in the Nebraska caucus.
And the result?
I believe Obama by 2-5 points.
Caucuses RULE!
ETA: Obama could have gotten -3% of the vote and last night STILL wouldn't have mattered. I'm just pointing out some of the stupidity of the democratic process. There is much more to point out on both sides here if anyone wants to join in.
And the result?
I believe Obama by 2-5 points.
Caucuses RULE!
ETA: Obama could have gotten -3% of the vote and last night STILL wouldn't have mattered. I'm just pointing out some of the stupidity of the democratic process. There is much more to point out on both sides here if anyone wants to join in.
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Sammy3469
Footballguy
Mankow is saying they're both potentially Pigouvian, however, Obama is 100% certain to be while McCain only may be. Basically he likes the government autioning off the rights initially because the market should be effecient (in theory though I guess it depends on the type of the auction) while giving them away and then creating a separate market has the potential to get you to a suboptimal allocation. Under the second scenario there will be some entities that get them that have fixed costs which would pay to keep the business open if they got them for free, but not if they had to buy them. Yeah the market would clear at some point, but the timing of that effecient allocation (especially since a lot of these business have relatively large fixed costs) is a lot less certain.
