*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win."

If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

Wait a minute. Think of how stupid that sounds (not you...just that sentiment). She is still way down on the delegate count.

She is still way down on the popular vote count.

Why on earth would she think that SHE can win when she can't even assemble the majority support across the country?

Two reasons:1. She's winning the battleground states. The general election is all about the electoral college. If Obama can't win Jews, Hispanics, or blue collar white voters, he loses Florida, the Southwest, maybe Ohio- you get the picture.

2. All of his victories come before Wright. Now his victories will only come in "black" states. She'll argue that if the earlier states had the chance to vote again, the results would be different.

Not saying I agree with this. But they could be convincing arguments.

What other victories were there to be had after Wright?Every polling shows this is a tired, non-issue. Only McCain supporters and Hillary backers want to keep this dream alive.

ETA: Hillary was polling at a 15pt margin of victory in PA before the whole Wright thing came up. If the results of today remain unchanged or are lower than those previous estimates, will you concede that that issue is irrelevant? (I suppose you won't, but it's a good question how you keep a barometer of its significance)

The polling you're referring to is among Democrats. We don't know how it plays out among independents. In truth, we won't know until November.

Wait a minute. Are you seriously implying that the Wright flap would produce REPUBLICANS who would have voted for Hillary or Obama, but now...not Obama because of this? Shirley, you can't be serious.

In a way. Some of the more conservative voters, as you know, are turned off by McCain, and there was the very real threat they might not vote in as big numbers as they did for Bush, especially if the Dem was not Hillary. The Wright issue may energize them. More importantly, how will the independents react? That is really the key.And don't call me Shirley.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win." If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

She has every right to stay until she has no mathematical chance remaining. Nothing wrong with that.

I agree. What I don't get is why people think she has a chance against McCain.

 

[SofaKings]

Hummm, Clinton gets new arguments from these results. Punks.Gonna compare Obama to Dukakus? Interesting.

Yeah, what's up with the Obama/Dukakis comparison. Seriously.

 

[adonis]

54% 398,787

46% 338,981

36% in

 

[Mark Davis]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

The thing about Obama is that he has the capacity to win people over. Did anyone expect him to be ahead when he first announced his intentions to run for President? Now he's going to win the nomination. He's a political phenom. I think you can make a poker analogy. Hillary was like the bad player with the big stack. Obama was like the good player with the short stack. He started out behind, but once they started playing he pulled ahead. I think the same sort of thing could happen in a heads up battle with McCain, whereas I think Hillary would have a zero chance of beating him.

He does, he's a very persuasive speaker and campaigner. But if we look at the consituents he appeals to, there aren't as many in PA and OH as there are elsewhere. He needs to find a way to win there. He may have closed the gap in PA, but he spent a lot of time and money there the last month and a half or so. He's going to have to find a way to reach those voters in areas other than Philly and its burbs. Pennsylvania is a state with an older population and a high proportion of Catholic voters, he's not made many inroads in those areas.

 

[adonis]

MSNBC says only 53% of Clinton voters would vote for Obama in the general, vs. 69% of Obama voters would vote for Clinton. This is not good for Obama, if it holds up.

It's been said that in past elections, these types of numbers have been very high before. Not too big of a worry just yet. And remember, that 50% or so of democrats have stayed home. We've yet to see where they're gonna fall, if anywhere.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

Women scorned. Not good.

More than women in the PA polling, seems to be Catholics. It would be interesting to see exit polling by county.

A difference between 25% and 18%. I'd take the odds on that 7% difference being highly female. I've seen that exact thing here on the West Coast.

 

[cobalt_27]

54C

46O

38%

 

[RBM]

CNN calling a Clinton victory.. also said Obama didn't do as well in Philadelphia as expected, and many rural counties are yet to report...

Sounds about right. More of the same from the people who put Rick Santorum into office.

As a McCain supporter please continue to paint the electorate as stupid!

Why are you a McCain supporter?

Lesser of two evils.

Seriously though, you think Barack Obama (the man himself) is evil?

You know "the lesser of two evils" is just a saying right?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win." If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

She has every right to stay until she has no mathematical chance remaining. Nothing wrong with that.

I agree. What I don't get is why people think she has a chance against McCain.

Because she may try and peg Obama as her VP.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

 

[adonis]

55% 464,351 Clinton

45% 384,850 Obama

41% in

 

[BigSteelThrill]

CNN calling a Clinton victory.. also said Obama didn't do as well in Philadelphia as expected, and many rural counties are yet to report...

Sounds about right. More of the same from the people who put Rick Santorum into office.

As a McCain supporter please continue to paint the electorate as stupid!

Why are you a McCain supporter?

Lesser of two evils.

Seriously though, you think Barack Obama (the man himself) is evil?

You know "the lesser of two evils" is just a saying right?

Except when were dealing with last two elections and actually put a very corrupt GOP admin into place.

 

[EBF]

He's going to have to find a way to reach those voters in areas other than Philly and its burbs. Pennsylvania is a state with an older population and a high proportion of Catholic voters, he's not made many inroads in those areas.

And you wouldn't expect him to. But in a general he's going to carry California, New York, and Illinois. That's a huge chunk of the pie right there. If he were to pick up a decent chunk of the minor states then all he'd have to do is take Florida and he'd be in very good shape for a win. What I'm saying is he really doesn't have to win the old, craggy, and conservative vote to win the nomination. All he has to do is take the liberals and the moderates, which I think he's definitely capable of doing.

 

[Mark Davis]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

Women scorned. Not good.

More than women in the PA polling, seems to be Catholics. It would be interesting to see exit polling by county.

A difference between 25% and 18%. I'd take the odds on that 7% difference being highly female. I've seen that exact thing here on the West Coast.

Once again, PA Democrats and CA Democrats are two very different consituents.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win."

If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

Wait a minute. Think of how stupid that sounds (not you...just that sentiment). She is still way down on the delegate count.

She is still way down on the popular vote count.

Why on earth would she think that SHE can win when she can't even assemble the majority support across the country?

Two reasons:1. She's winning the battleground states. The general election is all about the electoral college. If Obama can't win Jews, Hispanics, or blue collar white voters, he loses Florida, the Southwest, maybe Ohio- you get the picture.

2. All of his victories come before Wright. Now his victories will only come in "black" states. She'll argue that if the earlier states had the chance to vote again, the results would be different.

Not saying I agree with this. But they could be convincing arguments.

The Supers aren't pledging their support for a reason, and I GUARANTEE they know more than we do...

You are mistaken. They probably know more or less exactly the same data that we know. I'm sure there are different opinions being drawn by people with this information, but the facts are what they are.I also don't think the super-delegates are endowed with any kind of political super-sense beyond what any astute American can pick up from 10 or 20 years of observation.

 

[adonis]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

 

[shining path]

New drinking game: every time John King says "Let's see if these numbers hold up", drink!

 

[adonis]

New drinking game: every time John King says "Let's see if these numbers hold up", drink!

Let's not encourage alcohol poisoning here.

 

[Mark Davis]

He's going to have to find a way to reach those voters in areas other than Philly and its burbs. Pennsylvania is a state with an older population and a high proportion of Catholic voters, he's not made many inroads in those areas.

And you wouldn't expect him to. But in a general he's going to carry California, New York, and Illinois. That's a huge chunk of the pie right there. If he were to pick up a decent chunk of the minor states then all he'd have to do is take Florida and he'd be in very good shape for a win. What I'm saying is he really doesn't have to win the old, craggy, and conservative vote to win the nomination. All he has to do is take the liberals and the moderates, which I think he's definitely capable of doing.

He is a huge longshot to win FL (latest polling off memory is 53-38 McCain over Obama). He has a much better shot in PA and OH.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

Women scorned. Not good.

More than women in the PA polling, seems to be Catholics. It would be interesting to see exit polling by county.

A difference between 25% and 18%. I'd take the odds on that 7% difference being highly female. I've seen that exact thing here on the West Coast.

Once again, PA Democrats and CA Democrats are two very different consituents.

I'd still take odds that the make up of the 7% difference is highly female. 3:1 easily.

 

[SofaKings]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

 

[Hammered Finz]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win."

If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

Wait a minute. Think of how stupid that sounds (not you...just that sentiment). She is still way down on the delegate count.

She is still way down on the popular vote count.

Why on earth would she think that SHE can win when she can't even assemble the majority support across the country?

Two reasons:1. She's winning the battleground states. The general election is all about the electoral college. If Obama can't win Jews, Hispanics, or blue collar white voters, he loses Florida, the Southwest, maybe Ohio- you get the picture.

2. All of his victories come before Wright. Now his victories will only come in "black" states. She'll argue that if the earlier states had the chance to vote again, the results would be different.

Not saying I agree with this. But they could be convincing arguments.

The Supers aren't pledging their support for a reason, and I GUARANTEE they know more than we do...

You are mistaken. They probably know more or less exactly the same data that we know. I'm sure there are different opinions being drawn by people with this information, but the facts are what they are.I also don't think the super-delegates are endowed with any kind of political super-sense beyond what any astute American can pick up from 10 or 20 years of observation.

Really? Then why the hell do they have superdelegates if average people know better?

 

[LHUCKS]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.

Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

 

[adonis]

54% 497,something

46% 417,974

mid 40% in.

 

[Mark Davis]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

Women scorned. Not good.

More than women in the PA polling, seems to be Catholics. It would be interesting to see exit polling by county.

A difference between 25% and 18%. I'd take the odds on that 7% difference being highly female. I've seen that exact thing here on the West Coast.

Once again, PA Democrats and CA Democrats are two very different consituents.

I'd still take odds that the make up of the 7% difference is highly female. 3:1 easily.

If you say so. I don't know, you may be right. Regardless of the source, it's still an additional 7% loss of support from the other candidate that makes it a tougher road.

 

[adonis]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

Whenever it happens, expect a huge surge for dems and mccain to sink in polls in comparison.

 

[RBM]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

 

[Hammered Finz]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

Don't you have some Wham songs to download for your party??

 

[Mark Davis]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

Shouldn't the Pac-10 just secede and form a new union?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Really? Then why the hell do they have superdelegates if average people know better?

LOL.Its just to stop an overt outside takeover by Micky Mouse or Micky Rourke. They get the advancement to a bit higher delegate position because they are PELOs.

 

[cobalt_27]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

You know...You and I are on the same page only in terms of whom we support. But, you are the most ignorant, bigoted person here in how you choose to express your opinions. Your South/Rural shtick has already been put out to the woodshed by the mods here. Engage in an intelligent discussion for once.

 

[timschochet]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

Shouldn't the Pac-10 just secede and form a new union?

Don't give LHucks any ideas.

 

[SofaKings]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

Whenever it happens, expect a huge surge for dems and mccain to sink in polls in comparison.

And McCain will surge after the GOP convention.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

You know...You and I are on the same page only in terms of whom we support. But, you are the most ignorant, bigoted person here in how you choose to express your opinions. Your South/Rural shtick has already been put out to the woodshed by the mods here. Engage in an intelligent discussion for once.

:reported:

 

[cobalt_27]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

You know...You and I are on the same page only in terms of whom we support. But, you are the most ignorant, bigoted person here in how you choose to express your opinions. Your South/Rural shtick has already been put out to the woodshed by the mods here. Engage in an intelligent discussion for once.

:reported:

Good.

 

[Hammered Finz]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

You know...You and I are on the same page only in terms of whom we support. But, you are the most ignorant, bigoted person here in how you choose to express your opinions. Your South/Rural shtick has already been put out to the woodshed by the mods here. Engage in an intelligent discussion for once.

:reported:

I'm shocked I tell ya!

 

[SHIZNITTTT]

The best reason I have heard for the super delegates holding off on their support for one candidate or another is that...if the super delegates give their vote to Obama then people will be upset that the last few states voting will not matter.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win."

If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

Wait a minute. Think of how stupid that sounds (not you...just that sentiment). She is still way down on the delegate count.

She is still way down on the popular vote count.

Why on earth would she think that SHE can win when she can't even assemble the majority support across the country?

Two reasons:1. She's winning the battleground states. The general election is all about the electoral college. If Obama can't win Jews, Hispanics, or blue collar white voters, he loses Florida, the Southwest, maybe Ohio- you get the picture.

2. All of his victories come before Wright. Now his victories will only come in "black" states. She'll argue that if the earlier states had the chance to vote again, the results would be different.

Not saying I agree with this. But they could be convincing arguments.

The Supers aren't pledging their support for a reason, and I GUARANTEE they know more than we do...

You are mistaken. They probably know more or less exactly the same data that we know. I'm sure there are different opinions being drawn by people with this information, but the facts are what they are.I also don't think the super-delegates are endowed with any kind of political super-sense beyond what any astute American can pick up from 10 or 20 years of observation.

Really? Then why the hell do they have superdelegates if average people know better?

I think that's a good question. The simple answer is that the majority of voters aren't astute political observers, in fact the Democrats generally prove this every 4 years... including the superdelegates.

 

[SofaKings]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

You know...You and I are on the same page only in terms of whom we support. But, you are the most ignorant, bigoted person here in how you choose to express your opinions. Your South/Rural shtick has already been put out to the woodshed by the mods here. Engage in an intelligent discussion for once.

Ouch. That's gonna leave a mark.

 

[adonis]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

Whenever it happens, expect a huge surge for dems and mccain to sink in polls in comparison.

And McCain will surge after the GOP convention.

He's already been declared the winner. It's not news, no surge.

 

[timschochet]

It's at 8% now. If it stays there, that's actually not too bad for Obama. I say under 7% is good for Obama, 7-10% OK, 11-15% bad, 15% + REAL bad.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

If you can not - or you are unwilling - to play to the basic common denominator, then maybe you shouldn't win.These folks love platitudes and speak that is pro Jesus. pro Patriotism. pro fetus'. pro no new taxes / fiscal responsibility. You dont even have to be honest (look at Bushco), you just have to state to them that these are things you are after. ... and you get their vote.

 

[SHIZNITTTT]

How many people has CNN and FOX employed for the Election Coverage? I saw 8 people on a panel earlier on CNN arguing the importance of the Pennsylvania win.

 

[SofaKings]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

Whenever it happens, expect a huge surge for dems and mccain to sink in polls in comparison.

And McCain will surge after the GOP convention.

He's already been declared the winner. It's not news, no surge.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have to say...these rural voters are pissing me off. They voted for Bush the last two elections and now they're keeping Hillary in the race...Hillary is not half the candidate that Obama is.Truly saddening that these people are having this kind of a negative impact on our political system...and on our nation's policies.

If you can not - or you are unwilling - to play to the basic common denominator, then maybe you shouldn't win.These folks love platitudes and speak that is pro Jesus. pro Patriotism. pro fetus'. pro no new taxes / fiscal responsibility. You dont even have to be honest (look at Bushco), you just have to state to them that these are things you are after. ... and you get their vote.

Extremely disheartening for those of us that can see the difference.

 

[shining path]

Interesting comment by David Gergin: "The longer this goes on ... the more likely it is that one of them will be forced to take the other as a vice president."

 

[adonis]

Once the dems settle on a candidate, they will get a huge surge, regardless of who they settle on.

Maybe the DJIA will surge but the nominee probably not until the convention.

Whenever it happens, expect a huge surge for dems and mccain to sink in polls in comparison.

And McCain will surge after the GOP convention.

He's already been declared the winner. It's not news, no surge.

When is the GOP convention, before or after Dems?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

She's going to get slobberknocked in a heads up battle with McCain. I know if she wins the nomination I won't vote for her in November. Obama might also be facing an uphill battle against McCain, but I think he's much more capable of overcoming a deficit. There are a lot of people like myself who flat out won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance.

This is a worse phenomenon for Obama than it is for Clinton currently according to the PA exit polls. 25% of Clinton voters would vote McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama wins. 18% of Obama supporters said the same about Clinton if she is the nominee.

Women scorned. Not good.

More than women in the PA polling, seems to be Catholics. It would be interesting to see exit polling by county.

A difference between 25% and 18%. I'd take the odds on that 7% difference being highly female. I've seen that exact thing here on the West Coast.

Once again, PA Democrats and CA Democrats are two very different consituents.

I'd still take odds that the make up of the 7% difference is highly female. 3:1 easily.

If you say so. I don't know, you may be right. Regardless of the source, it's still an additional 7% loss of support from the other candidate that makes it a tougher road.

Obamas campaign has always been on the "tougher road".

 

[timschochet]

Superdelegates are so VIPs can have extra perks at the convention. It's like being in a luxury box at the stadium. It was never supposed to mean anything. Only the Democrats could manage to screw this up.