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That seems like a coincidence more than anything. How does the previous night's result affect how the ball comes out of his hand? Do the Tigers party when they win and go back to the hotel like good boys when they lose?A little late, but I'm getting even for that Mitre/Livan stinker with LILLY -102 tonight.
If you can't beat 'em, join them. The CU come through in a big way tonight, biggest bet of the year for me.Green94 said:
(1 unit more than the Cleveland bet I had a few weeks ago).Pretty pumped right now, and I'll be more so tomorrow if I can land some Pearl Jam tickets at the Vic. 
Don't mean to pour salt in the wound (FLA burned me last night too), but there's no correlation between run support and a pitcher's skill: http://bjays.wordpress.com/2007/06/18/whip-up-some-support/1-1 last night for +0.7 and a solid2-7 (-5.03 units) the last couple of days.
One play for tonight.
Florida +155.
I know the DBacks have won four straight and have their best pitcher taking the hill tonight, but Webb seems to get little support (3.79 r/g, 2.2 r/g over his last five). A pitcher with this talent is bound to get priced highly and when he's only around .500 it might be a decent shot to fade him.
Olsen's first start since his little incident. With all his off-field distractions he either sees the diamond as a respite and re-focuses enough to pitch a gem or he loses focus altogether and gets shelled early. Anything above +150 and I'm willing to bet the former.
Can someone who understands how lines are set explain to me like I'm shuke how that Cubs line (Lilly v. Wainwright) was set about evenly? Not that I'm complaining, but that game almost seemed too easy.If you can't beat 'em, join them. The CU come through in a big way tonight, biggest bet of the year for me.Green94 said:
I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.
You don't care if this is a real trend or just a statistical fluke? Rogers was dreadful last night.I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.
Since the anti-gambling bill has been passed, I've gotten withdrawals from poker sites where they just send me a check in the mail.
I think that is the route I will go.
Damnit, lost 4 units on that Braves game (-2) on the day. I was feeling it. James did what I was hoping for, but Lowry really surprised. Onward...Over in the 5th. 2 units. May have to go bigger on the Braves at this rate...Toronto in romp. Damnit! Always wonder if that means I'm still hot; or that my luck has changed.Anyway, nice hit JTC.Think I'll got with the over on the Angels/A's. 7.5 is kinda low. Day game in Animalheim and neither pitcher has been sharp of late...good enough for me.
? No day betting today
But the Tigers won, so I won my bet.You don't care if this is a real trend or just a statistical fluke? Rogers was dreadful last night.I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.
Updated stats:But the Tigers won, so I won my bet.You don't care if this is a real trend or just a statistical fluke? Rogers was dreadful last night.I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.
Tigers are 5-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-1 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Green94 said:Leroy Hoard said:But the Tigers won, so I won my bet.Zombie Kid said:You don't care if this is a real trend or just a statistical fluke? Rogers was dreadful last night.I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.
Tigers are 5-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-1 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Wow, 2 for 2!!!!If you can't beat 'em, join them. The CU come through in a big way tonight, biggest bet of the year for me.
Nice work Proprosopis said:
WTF! There were day games todayprosopis said:
Good work Pro - pick us some winners for tonight.
Oh, I definitely agree. A Cy Young pitcher is a Cy Young pitcher whether his team scores 1 run or 10. It shouldn't be something that's predictive either, but intuitively it seems that way. Without digging through the data it's one of those things that just seems to trend...When a pitcher isn't getting support, he seems to not get it for awhile. Sometimes a guy can go through a stretch where he pitches wonderfully but just ends up on the wrong end of 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 scores for a stretch. Could be (and likely is) one of those things where perception doesn't match reality, but I was willing to let it influence me.0-1 last night, now at 2-8 for -6.03 units. Three plays for tonight...
Doubt it. It's just an instance of when it does happen you're going to hear about it over and over until it stops -- especially when the guy is pitching well. Conversely, you're not gonna hear as much about poor pitchers not getting run support. And you're certainly not going to hear about all the guys that "stop" their run support "problems" after only a few games, do you? That's not a trend, it's a coincidence (mostly).
I won't push it then. In my opinion, if someone is relying on a factor that has more to do with luck than skill and consequently costing themselves money (IMO) by doing so, I feel compelled to at least point it out. Some people may think I'm being an ### or I'm full of ####, and that's fine. Some may dig further and come to the same conclusion I do, and that's great.To each his own.Leroy Hoard said:But the Tigers won, so I won my bet.You don't care if this is a real trend or just a statistical fluke? Rogers was dreadful last night.I don't know the answer to your questions, I just know the results.Updated stats:
Tigers are 5-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-1 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
So I talked myself out of playing this for a little bit more, basically because this line made absolutely no sense to me. Oh well.
I love E Byrnes
VERYI love E Byrnes
Since I can't find much of anything on today's card, I think I'll go with you on this.
Good news!!!!!!!!!!I got me some cash through western union.
Ever since the anti gambling laws I was afraid I would not be able to be make a withdrawal. I did it today and from the time I called them to cash in hand was about 3 hours.Woooooooohoooooooooooo
This guy better be right. 2 units on the Brewers.Also added a unit each on the U9 in the California Angels game...and one on Cleveland over Boof.
Tonight is your night.Still doing awfully.....and you guys are screwed if you follow me.......no write ups, trying for a change of pace:Milwaukee -101Boston -151SD -151NYM (RL) +110Tex/KC o9.5 -105
don't tail meTonight is your night.Still doing awfully.....and you guys are screwed if you follow me.......no write ups, trying for a change of pace:Milwaukee -101Boston -151SD -151NYM (RL) +110Tex/KC o9.5 -105
Adding to my cardAtl/Az O9.5 -115parlay Chc -123, SD -150, Bos -1.5 -110
