***OFFICIAL*** Belmont Stakes 2014 Thread (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

1. Medal Count 20-1

2. California Chrome 3-5

3. Matterhorn 30-1

4. Commanding Curve 15-1

5. Ride On Curlin 12-1

6. Matuszak 30-1

7. Samraat 20-1

8. Commissioner 20-1

9. Wicked Strong 6-1

10. General a Rod 20-1

11. Tonalist 8-1

PP and morning line odds.

Clearly the only way to win some shekels on this race is to fade the favorite, which is unfortunate because I think every racing fan alive hopes to see California Chrome break the 36 year drought and reinvigorate the Sport of Kings.

Right now, I'm looking for instant tosses. At the moment, I'm looking squarely at the two biggest longshots as being outclassed by this field. Next 3 I likely toss are Medal Count, General A-Rod, and Commissioner based on post, results, and running style.

That leaves me with 6 horses I think have a solid shot at hitting the board. I think I'm leaving the 2 off the top of my tickets as any exotic with Chrome on top isn't going to pay squat.

May go :

$2 exacta box : 4,5,7,9,11 with 2,4,5,7,9,11 = $50

I think I'd like to shave another horse or two off before running a trifecta box. As is, I'm looking at another $100 for a $1 tri box unless I can safely drop another horse or two.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Also thinking of placing a decent win bet on Commanding Curve if the odds stay anywhere near 15-1 by post time (I expect they won't.) I loved that horse going into the Derby and I like his style even better for this race. If Chrome is gassed down the back stretch, I think Commanding Curve has the best chance to reel him in with Wicked Strong and Ride On Curlin, (not necessarily in that order) having the next best chances.

 

[Judge Smails]

What typically happens in the Belmont is a horse pulls away at the top of the stretch, then tries to hold on for dear life as 1 horse comes out of the pack to challenge down the lane. You typically never see 3 horses come flyin'. Pretty sure Tonalist or California Chrome (most likely the latter) will be clear at the top of the lane, and then it's Wicked Strong (most likely), Ride on Curlin or Commanding Curve coming.

 

[Timmay]

What typically happens in the Belmont is a horse pulls away at the top of the stretch, then tries to hold on for dear life as 1 horse comes out of the pack to challenge down the lane. You typically never see 3 horses come flyin'. Pretty sure Tonalist or California Chrome (most likely the latter) will be clear at the top of the lane, and then it's Wicked Strong (most likely), Ride on Curlin or Commanding Curve coming.

This is a great post.

I keep going back to Wicked Strong in this race. I like all 5 that you talked about though.

For a longer shot, I really think General A Rod is going to surprise people in the Belmont. He would of been a factor in the Preakness if Ria Antonia didn't get in his way and screw up his charge right before the stretch. He definitely would of got 3rd, but could of very well been up there in the 2 spot challenging ROC and CC.

I don't see Samraat, Matterhorn, Medal Count, or Matuszak being much of a factor in this race.

Commissioner is an interesting horse. I have to look more into him before ruling him as a play or not.

 

[Judge Smails]

What typically happens in the Belmont is a horse pulls away at the top of the stretch, then tries to hold on for dear life as 1 horse comes out of the pack to challenge down the lane. You typically never see 3 horses come flyin'. Pretty sure Tonalist or California Chrome (most likely the latter) will be clear at the top of the lane, and then it's Wicked Strong (most likely), Ride on Curlin or Commanding Curve coming.

This is a great post.

I keep going back to Wicked Strong in this race. I like all 5 that you talked about though.

For a longer shot, I really think General A Rod is going to surprise people in the Belmont. He would of been a factor in the Preakness if Ria Antonia didn't get in his way and screw up his charge right before the stretch. He definitely would of got 3rd, but could of very well been up there in the 2 spot challenging ROC and CC.

I don't see Samraat, Matterhorn, Medal Count, or Matuszak being much of a factor in this race.

Commissioner is an interesting horse. I have to look more into him before ruling him as a play or not.

I'm against General ARod. Can't think of a horse who ever finished out of the money in the first two triple crown races come back and run well in the Belmont. Excuses or not.

The horse I'm most sure about? Ride on Curlin. Somebody please tell me why this horse won't be there at the end. He was miles better than anybody other than CC in the Preakness (actually 6 1/2 lengths). No amount of checking is worth 6 1/2 lengths in a 1 3/16 race. Curlin was in a head bobber in the Belmont, so his son should get the distance. I think Ride on Curlin is getting zero respect in this field. I really feel Wicked Strong will be coming, but Hard Spun/Charismatic both came up short at 1 1/2 miles and I think Wicked Strong might too. Ride on Curlin ran great at Belmont in the G1 Champagne, and Wicked Strong has run well there twice. Handling the Belmont surface is huge.

I'm almost thinking of doing a $40 tri box with California Chrome, Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong, and a $20 tri box with Tonalist (monster win at Belmont), Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong (just in case Chrome breaks bad). I'm not even going to mess with Supers this time as outside of the 3 throwouts any of the rest can finish 4th. But I do think 3 horses will be clear. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Interesting stuff here. Still have to hash out my play, I'm just loathe to play too much fading California Chrome. I'd like to be able to rejoice if he wins and not bemoan the loss of several hundred bucks, so I really want to mitigate my wagering by tossing a bunch of horses.

 

[tonydead]

What typically happens in the Belmont is a horse pulls away at the top of the stretch, then tries to hold on for dear life as 1 horse comes out of the pack to challenge down the lane. You typically never see 3 horses come flyin'. Pretty sure Tonalist or California Chrome (most likely the latter) will be clear at the top of the lane, and then it's Wicked Strong (most likely), Ride on Curlin or Commanding Curve coming.

This is a great post.

I keep going back to Wicked Strong in this race. I like all 5 that you talked about though.

For a longer shot, I really think General A Rod is going to surprise people in the Belmont. He would of been a factor in the Preakness if Ria Antonia didn't get in his way and screw up his charge right before the stretch. He definitely would of got 3rd, but could of very well been up there in the 2 spot challenging ROC and CC.

I don't see Samraat, Matterhorn, Medal Count, or Matuszak being much of a factor in this race.

Commissioner is an interesting horse. I have to look more into him before ruling him as a play or not.

I'm against General ARod. Can't think of a horse who ever finished out of the money in the first two triple crown races come back and run well in the Belmont. Excuses or not.

The horse I'm most sure about? Ride on Curlin. Somebody please tell me why this horse won't be there at the end. He was miles better than anybody other than CC in the Preakness (actually 6 1/2 lengths). No amount of checking is worth 6 1/2 lengths in a 1 3/16 race. Curlin was in a head bobber in the Belmont, so his son should get the distance. I think Ride on Curlin is getting zero respect in this field. I really feel Wicked Strong will be coming, but Hard Spun/Charismatic both came up short at 1 1/2 miles and I think Wicked Strong might too. Ride on Curlin ran great at Belmont in the G1 Champagne, and Wicked Strong has run well there twice. Handling the Belmont surface is huge.

I'm almost thinking of doing a $40 tri box with California Chrome, Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong, and a $20 tri box with Tonalist (monster win at Belmont), Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong (just in case Chrome breaks bad). I'm not even going to mess with Supers this time as outside of the 3 throwouts any of the rest can finish 4th. But I do think 3 horses will be clear. Just my 2 cents.

GOOD STUFF!!

 

[Chaos Commish]

Good day to revisit this

 

[sbonomo]

I am going to place a good size wager on CC to either place or show (have not decided yet). Next, i am going to couple that with several exacta's with Curlin, Wicked Strong, etc. I always hate betting this race because it is so different than the other two. Really looking forward to the discussion.

 

[tonydead]

Tonalist <> Commanding Curve?

 

[Timmay]

Tonalist <> Commanding Curve?

I think Tonalist has a better shot at winning, but I could see Commanding Curve in 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Timmay]

Here are my main bets:

Tri-Wheel: 5, 9, 11 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11

Exacta Box 5, 9, 10

To Win: 5 and 9

$2 to Win: 2

 

[Judge Smails]

Commanding Curve. Just don't know if I'm overlooking him because of Dallas Stewart's Golden Soul 2nd in last year's Derby to multiple pig-like efforts afterwards. The horse is 7-2-2-2. Don't start changing your mind Judge - that cost you 13K last time. Note to self.

 

[Judge Smails]

I am going to place a good size wager on CC to either place or show (have not decided yet). Next, i am going to couple that with several exacta's with Curlin, Wicked Strong, etc. I always hate betting this race because it is so different than the other two. Really looking forward to the discussion.

Curve or Chrome?

A place/show bet on Chrome makes zero sense. On second thought, it make little sense on Curve. Place and show will pay nothing if Chrome's in the money. Better to play exacta's or tri's. If you're saying Curve can't win because Chrome is a lock, then bet Curve in 2nd and 3rd to all, or smaller tri's to those you think really can contend. Just sayin'. You will get no score with place or show bets. The best Curve could pay to place if Chrome wins is $6 or so. $3 or $4 to show. If Chrome wins? He'll pay $3, $2.40, $2.10.

If you like Commanding Curve - at least bet him across the board. If Chrome stumbles or something, he'll pay $24+ to win - that's where the overlay is. The win pools. Now if Chrome runs out everyone's place/show pools will be higher, but not enough to buy you dinner. Pool is too big for any bridge jumper to matter. And they wouldn't do it on a race like the Belmont anyway.

 

[sbonomo]

I am going to place a good size wager on CC to either place or show (have not decided yet). Next, i am going to couple that with several exacta's with Curlin, Wicked Strong, etc. I always hate betting this race because it is so different than the other two. Really looking forward to the discussion.

Curve or Chrome?A place/show bet on Chrome makes zero sense. On second thought, it make little sense on Curve. Place and show will pay nothing if Chrome's in the money. Better to play exacta's or tri's. If you're saying Curve can't win because Chrome is a lock, then bet Curve in 2nd and 3rd to all, or smaller tri's to those you think really can contend. Just sayin'. You will get no score with place or show bets. The best Curve could pay to place if Chrome wins is $6 or so. $3 or $4 to show. If Chrome wins? He'll pay $3, $2.40, $2.10.

If you like Commanding Curve - at least bet him across the board. If Chrome stumbles or something, he'll pay $24+ to win - that's where the overlay is. The win pools. Now if Chrome runs out everyone's place/show pools will be higher, but not enough to buy you dinner. Pool is too big for any bridge jumper to matter. And they wouldn't do it on a race like the Belmont anyway.

I am going to put 500 on the place show....I know it is not going to pay anything but I think it is a safe bet. I like the other tri's you mentioned at $2-5 box. Just for point of reference I typically only budget 100-200...

 

[Gawain]

Curve is down to 7-1 or so. I still have no lean.

Who has picks I can shamelessly follow?

 

[tonydead]

$117 Crome to Win

Exacta Box (2,4,5,9,11)

Tri Box (2,4,5,9,11)

Wicked Strong 5W, 10P, 15S for the old lady.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Steve Coburn with some serious sour grapes. Too bad dude. Life sucks, it's horse racing and people will do what they need to do to win a big money race. His idea of the triple crown winner has to beat only horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness really takes the shine off winning the triple crown. Why don't we make it as easy as possible, waaaah?

 

[tonydead]

Bummmmmmer.

 

[shadyridr]

Lol ####in sore loser. Thats why the triple crown is so hard. If only horses that ran the first two races were eligible it would be a three horse race every year.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Lol ####in sore loser. Thats why the triple crown is so hard. If only horses that ran the first two races were eligible it would be a three horse race every year.

yeah, that owner has been an idiot the whole time, now that he loses he goes full moron.

 

[Deepster]

Anyone have any guesses as to why Chrome flared out wide right before the stretch? I thought he was in good shape, not overly pushed to that point, decent position to make that charge. And all of a sudden, he just took a right turn and flared outside and never recovered.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Anyone have any guesses as to why Chrome flared out wide right before the stretch? I thought he was in good shape, not overly pushed to that point, decent position to make that charge. And all of a sudden, he just took a right turn and flared outside and never recovered.

I think he should have held position as well and just made his move. There seemed to be enough room.

 

[Tom Servo]

So...anybody win cash?

 

[tri-man 47]

Anyone have any guesses as to why Chrome flared out wide right before the stretch? I thought he was in good shape, not overly pushed to that point, decent position to make that charge. And all of a sudden, he just took a right turn and flared outside and never recovered.

I think he should have held position as well and just made his move. There seemed to be enough room.

Agreed ..you have to figure, for this long race, that one or two of those front runners would fade and open up a gap.

 

[Judge Smails]

So...anybody win cash?

Not on the Belmont. Lost $424. Was down about $400 the rest of the day then I hit a tri at Golden Gate in the last race for $877 and $105 in exactas. $24 total bet. Account was down to last $30. Can't hit the big one, but I'm the king of cheap pigs!

None of my friends cashed in the Belmont. Some had Tonalist but not to win. Nobody had Commissioner - he was what killed all tickets.

 

[Judge Smails]

So...anybody win cash?

Not on the Belmont. Lost $424. Was down about $400 the rest of the day then I hit a tri at Golden Gate in the last race for $877 and $105 in exactas. $24 total bet. Account was down to last $30. Can't hit the big one, but I'm the king of cheap pigs!

None of my friends cashed in the Belmont. Some had Tonalist but not to win. Nobody had Commissioner - he was what killed all tick

Anyone have any guesses as to why Chrome flared out wide right before the stretch? I thought he was in good shape, not overly pushed to that point, decent position to make that charge. And all of a sudden, he just took a right turn and flared outside and never recovered.

I think he should have held position as well and just made his move. There seemed to be enough room.

Agreed ..you have to figure, for this long race, that one or two of those front runners would fade and open up a gap.

He ran his heart out. Sorta got bumped and stumbled a bit. He's not bred for 1 1/2 miles and it showed. Horses don't have the same kick going that far. Still made a nice move but just wasn't good enough. The move outside didn't cost him the race. He lost on the square.