People keep repeating that his combine numbers are great like some type of mantra. Yes his 40 yard time is good but why is everyone ignoring his 10 yard dash numbers?. His 10 yard dash is 1.59 which is worse than Tre Mason (1.50), Isiah Crowell (1.55), Charles Sims (1.57), Jeremy Hill (1.56), Jerrick McKinnon (1.46) and the same as Devonta Freeman and Terrance West.
There are a few talent evaluators that swear by the 10 yard dash being one of the most accurate measures of speed for a running back, since they very rarely carry for more than 10 yards in the NFL. Everyone has their own metrics but this one makes a lot of sense to me.
His 40 wasn't the most impressive thing. It was his 40 in conjunction with his jumps. Puts his jumps and his 40/10 yds times together and you have a guy with clear lower body explosiveness. It's the combination of drills that makes his combine impressive. Not just one or the other.
Exactly. Also Sankey had the best 3 cone dril of all the RB's at the combine and his 3 cone drill was better than most WR's including Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, O'Dell Beckham and company. Furthermore, I don't know if some of you realize how hard it is for a 21 year old kid to bench press 225 lbs for a total of 26 reps. Running backs have taken a value hit by most NFL teams as far as where and when they are drafted in the NFL draft. I think this has directly related to the questions and concerns fantasy owners have with how good a RB is or might be in the NFL. Many felt Eddy Lacy should have been a 1st round pick yet he fell to the end of the 2nd round in the NFL draft. Running backs just don't seem to have the value they once did to an NFL franchise. Many teams would rather wait on a rb rather than draft guys in the 1st round and miss like rRchardson, Ingram, Wilson and company.
The truth is Sankey is every bit as good as any rookie RB to come out in the last while as far as being a complete package. He passes all of the tests and anyone trying to claim other wise either has an agenda and or are searching for there "I told you so" moment. In one of the deepest drafts in recent memories, with running backs value at an all time low Sankey was the 1st running back taken and the 54th player off the board. There are plenty of good reasons that have been stated time and time again throughout this thread that explain why. There really does not seem to be much of a counter argument other than subjective feelings about Sankey stating why he won't be good.
It can also be argued that Sankey as far as offensive skill players go is as much of a can't miss prospect as anyone coming out of this draft class including Watkins. Now, I don't think this means Sankey should have been a top 5 pick in the NFL draft, but more so his bust potential is extremely low and his chance of being really good is quite high.
We have to be careful about categorizing opinions as ones that agree with you, and biased or wrong ones. I intend that as a personal observation/suggestion coming from a fellow poster, not a mod warning. I don't number you among that class, but there is a fortunately small, but unfortunately vocal minority that can create a nuisance/irritant factor, even (especially?) when unconscious, by consistently implying that opinions should be divided into, those that agree with mine, and those of dumb people, which are to be marginalized in a patronizingly dismissive manner. Instead of opening up and expanding new paths of learning, it tends to shut them down (maybe if only because that can create an atmosphere and climate in which some people aren't comfortable venturing an opinion that could be subjected to derision). Have you ever made a mistake on players you thought were can't miss?
Billy didn't say he would be an abject failure, just that he viewed him as a RB2-type. That is about what Bernard finished as, and they are oft-compared. It's asking a lot for any rookie at any position to be a top 5 player, maybe he can be top 10 if he gets a big workload, but we don't know with certainty what that will be. Will he be able to withstand the beating from bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic defenders, there is almost always some uncertainty associated with the jump up in competition at the next level.
Admittedly I didn't study Sankey too heavily (Clockwork Orange conditioned to get violently ill when hearing the name Sank - urp, urp, like Malcolm McDowell was to ultra-violence

), but what I did see of him, didn't make me think of McCoy (and I mean at Pittsburgh, not in PHI). That guy was a ghost ninja. Take former boxer Pernell Whitaker's feet (among the quickest I ever saw) and lower body quickness, and graft on Pai Mei's contortionist upper body agility and lightning fast reflexes on display in Uma Thurman's Kung Fu lessons, and that begins to describe and convey an inkling of what I saw at the time. Defenders had a hard time even touching him even if they were in close proximity.
I agree with your take on Watkins, but not in linking Sankey with him. I know you know how rare Watkins is (only WR in NCAA history to be AP first team All-American as a true Freshman). When I saw Watkins, I thought he could be a serial Pro Bowler with upside, can't say that in Sankey's case, personally.
There are very few players that I can say in retrospect I thought were "can't miss" at the time, and many of them tend to fall into the Player 0, among the best in the league at their respective position, serial Pro Bowler, potential future Hall of Fame-types. Below are prospects I saw in about the past decade.
QB - Andrew Luck
RB - Adrian Peterson
WR - Calvin Johnson
TE - Vernon Davis
LT - Greg Robinson
OG - Jonathan Cooper
C - ?
DE - Jadeveon Clowney
DT - Ndamukong Suh (though Donald could give him a run for his money)
LB - Luke Kuechly
CB - Patrick Peterson
S - The late, great Sean Taylor
Those were can't miss prospects at the time I thought.
Maybe a notch below, players like A.J. Green and Julio Jones.
The question may not even need to be, will Sankey bust, but, will he have more of a RB1 or RB2 profile, health permitting.
Can he become a RB1? Possibly. Can he fall short of that lofty standard? Absolutely, unless you think he is a can't miss prospect on the level of an Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson (and I don't think you think that).
* Things I like about Sankey, in terms of situational context.
Good OL (though I have doubts Lewan can be plugged in and do as well as Roos in a year), Warmack is a stud interior OL, and, along with Cooper, the first top 10 guards since Ditka drafted Chris Naeole for NO in over a decade and a half ('97).
Wright and Hunter are a good looking young WR tandem.
Locker is a concern, but I won't be surprised if Mettenberger is starting in the next year or two, and think he could be the best QB in the class after the top 3.
Bernard is probably as good a comp as any, I actually like Gio more, just speaking of talent, but appreciate and acknowledge Sankey's opportunity. Not to imply Sankey is a stiff or a bum, but if the situation is close, I am generally reluctant to weight opportunity over talent in dynasty, because it can change quickly. We need look no further than Bernard, for instance. I actually think Jeremy Hill is the most talented RB in this class, with Hyde and Mason not far behind. Hill's yard per carry average broke Garrison Hearst's SEC record that stood for several decades. Hyde broke some of Eddie George's Ohio State records, and was only stopped for a loss 2-3 times all season. Lacy wasn't exactly a workout warrior, but he was Rookie of the Year, and of all the RBs in the class, Hyde's skill set and game resembles his most.
Speed as measured in the 40 at the combine isn't the whole story when it comes to field/game speed. Terrell Suggs is "slow", but like Rex Ryan said at the time in BAL (DC?) when he was drafted, he didn't expect Suggs would be running 40 yards too much to get to the QB.
The combine 40 doesn't test (or therefore measure) reactions/reflexes. In other words, the clock starts ticking only after first movement. There is no gun like in competitive sprints. Each time a defensive player makes a move or positions himself to tackle Sankey and forces him to make an adjustment, that is like the gun going off (SHOTS FIRED!

) testing his reactions/reflexes. Not to say he isn't good at it, just noting it is another layer or level of information to look at, in addition to his impressive 40 time. Some RBs, like Alfred Morris, aren't particularly fast or athletic, but some of their success can be traced to things discussed here like vision and instincts (patience is a related positive attribute).
I've always thought those terms were kind of conceptual black boxes, in which having one word could trick us into thinking it describes one thing, when the word in actuality may be a stand in for a hazily perceived and understood cluster of traits and skills that are bundled together and difficult to delineate. Reactions and reflexes could be related to and among these bundled, tangled, difficult to delineate clusters of traits and attributes we call vision and instincts. Significant differences among prospects could be related to variance in the population at the nervous system level.
What we commonly call explosiveness could also be tied in to reactions/reflexes. A skeleton key for scouting linemen is, once the ball is snapped, see who moves first. Aaron Donald almost always moves first, sometimes he is exploding into and gaining leverage on the hapless OL tasked with blocking him even before they have fully emerged from their stance. The scary thing about him to opposing offenses, despite lacking prototypical size for the DT position, I think his combo of speed + quickness + power + athleticism + instincts (oops, I just did the black box thing) will be as good as advertised, and the Randle, Sapp, Glover, Atkins-LIKE comps vindicated.
I believe Biabreakable alluded to this upthread, in thinking about what even the beginning of an approach to making breaking down vision more "empirical" and less subjective might look like structurally. Even if that structure ended up being provisional and subject to change, imo it is important to think about things like this.