What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

Status
Not open for further replies.
In case you want to know what Fauci actually thinks instead of listening to the cartoon caricatures:
Yeah, when I hear people talk about wearing masks going forward, I assume they're talking about the Asian model, where the expectation is that you'll wear a mask in public whenever you're sick. (Similarly, I think there will be a long-term social taboo against dragging yourself to work/school when sick). Could I see some people extending mask wearing to anytime they're in a small, enclosed space (like an airplane) with strangers? Sure. Do I see governments or airlines mandating it? Maybe I'm being naive, but I don't think so.

 
A Texas man, whose death was the first confirmed Omicron-related in the US, was unvaccinated and had previously been infected with the coronavirus, according to a press release from Harris County Public Health. "The individual was at higher risk of severe complications from Covid-19 due to his unvaccinated status and had underlying health conditions," the release said.

County Judge Lina Hidalgo announced the death on Monday, saying the man was in his 50s. The case is the first known confirmed Omicron-related death in the US.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-12-21-21-intl/h_4b2c2a65d6e94951dc987c52a4dd27f0

 
Yeah, when I hear people talk about wearing masks going forward, I assume they're talking about the Asian model, where the expectation is that you'll wear a mask in public whenever you're sick. (Similarly, I think there will be a long-term social taboo against dragging yourself to work/school when sick). Could I see some people extending mask wearing to anytime they're in a small, enclosed space (like an airplane) with strangers? Sure. Do I see governments or airlines mandating it? Maybe I'm being naive, but I don't think so.
Masks just seem like a +EV play to me.  Why get sick, especially as you get older, if you don't have to. 

No one's going to be mandating masks forever though.  In many places we couldn't mandate them in a serious way in the middle of 1,000,000 people dying and they're going to be required forever?  How does that make any sense?

 
No one's going to be mandating masks forever though.  In many places we couldn't mandate them in a serious way in the middle of 1,000,000 people dying and they're going to be required forever?  How does that make any sense?
I agree with you, but that doesn't seem to be how this conversation is evolving.

 
Yeah, when I hear people talk about wearing masks going forward, I assume they're talking about the Asian model, where the expectation is that you'll wear a mask in public whenever you're sick. (Similarly, I think there will be a long-term social taboo against dragging yourself to work/school when sick). Could I see some people extending mask wearing to anytime they're in a small, enclosed space (like an airplane) with strangers? Sure. Do I see governments or airlines mandating it? Maybe I'm being naive, but I don't think so.
Could have posted this word for word.

 
A Texas man, whose death was the first confirmed Omicron-related in the US, was unvaccinated and had previously been infected with the coronavirus, according to a press release from Harris County Public Health. "The individual was at higher risk of severe complications from Covid-19 due to his unvaccinated status and had underlying health conditions," the release said.

County Judge Lina Hidalgo announced the death on Monday, saying the man was in his 50s. The case is the first known confirmed Omicron-related death in the US.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-12-21-21-intl/h_4b2c2a65d6e94951dc987c52a4dd27f0
previously infected. I hadn't heard that. It seems like that should be getting a little more attention. It would be interesting to know when he had covid in the past and how severe it was.

 
I believe that you believe this, but I don't believe policy-makers.  Fauci said the quiet part out loud recently by saying that we'll all be wearing masks on airplanes for the rest of our lives.  No thanks.  At this point, my impression is that the conversation has mostly shifted away from temporary, emergency measures toward what measures we're prepared to live with forever.  I'm going to actively oppose nearly every NPI mandate at this point because you'll never be able to persuade me that any of these are going to be anything other than permanent fixtures from now on.

(I'm implementing my own personal temporary measures to avoid omicron for at least a few weeks, but I trust myself to make reasonable decisions about my own lifestyle and to act nimbly when circumstances on the ground change.  Considering that we're now two years into the pandemic and our own policy-makers still can't get out of their own way on testing and boosters, I'm not assigning much credibility to those folks anymore.  Sorry.)
Well, I'm not talking about policy makers, I'm talking about what we as citizens can/should do while we're dealing with spikes and a new variant- mask up when indoors, limit gathering size/frequency, get vaccinated/boosted, test, etc. Remember, this started by you quoting my post which very clearly said "IMO we need another month or so before 'moving on with life'", nothing in there at all about doing anything forever. Believe me, I want to get back as close to normal as soon as possible, but now is not the time.

That said, this comes across as borderline paranoid, and I have about as low an opinion of our government as anyone.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
1.  Get vaccinated and then boosted
If one hadn't been vaccinated prior to now, why would they need to get boosted as well? I was under the impression it was about 6 months after the second shot one might need to be boosted.

Sorry, I haven't posted in here for a while and was just looking back through the last few pages.

 
If one hadn't been vaccinated prior to now, why would they need to get boosted as well? I was under the impression it was about 6 months after the second shot one might need to be boosted.

Sorry, I haven't posted in here for a while and was just looking back through the last few pages.
Get vaccinated.  Then when it is time, get boosted.   

 
Saw some good news out of both South Africa and UK. Cases in SA seem to already be falling. Cases in UK seem to have begun plateauing. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
https://www.3aw.com.au/leading-epidemiologist-says-hes-now-convinced-omicron-is-less-virulent-than-delta/

Leading epidemiologist says he’s now convinced Omicron is less virulent than Delta

A leading epidemiologist says he’s now prepared to say the Omicron variant of COVID-19 is less severe than Delta.

The University of Melbourne’s Tony Blakely told 3AW Breakfast he thought the new strain of the coronavirus was somewhere between “10 to 50 per cent” less virulent than Delta.

“I think it’s quite low on virulence,” he said.

“I’ve been tracking through all the international data – we are not seeing an up-kick in hospitalisation rates in the UK and US in the data I can pull down – and we’re not seeing an up-kick in NSW.

“Now, it’s still a little bit early to say it’s really, really mild but it’s clear to me, at least, that it is less virulent.

“How much less virulent? The South Africans say it’s only 10 per cent – a tenfold reduction on Delta – and the Brits are saying it might be 70 per cent.

“This is a very competent group doing the analysis, but when I look closely there are a few biases in there.

“I think we are somewhere between 10 and 50 per cent the virulence of Delta and I think we can actually get that virulence down even lower with boosters.

“With that said, I’m not saying change our policy settings at this point in time.

“Let’s wait until that period at the beginning of January to make more definitive calls, but I am optimistic and hopeful that Omicron is not going to be bad on the virulence side.

“It’s certainly bad on the infectivity side – you could see a state like NSW or Victoria heading up to 10,000 and 15,000 cases a day – and at some level of cases you will stretch the health system, but it’s not going to be at the same level as Delta.”

But he responded with an unequivocal yes when asked whether masks should be worn again in all indoor settings.

 
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that the head of the WHO has to speak to a very broad worldwide audience, so he's going to try to deliver the simplest, easy-to-understand message possible, which is that people should take Omicron very seriously.

But in general, and certainly at an individual level, I think we're far enough into this pandemic that we can rely more on the dictum, "Don't do dumb ####." Can you get together with a small group of vaccinated family members? Shouldn't be a problem (and if you want a little more reassurance, it should be easy enough to get tested beforehand). Should you go out every night to a different indoor, unmasked holiday party? Probably not a good idea.

 
Local bar I frequent had to close because they had 14 employees test positive.   Place down the street just had 3 test positive.  I'm sure there are more to come.  It's feeling like this article from last week.

 
12 year old woke up in middle of night two nights ago and threw up. Chalked it up to eating Dominoes pizza to close to bed time. Seemed fine by morning. No other symptoms. Went to a softball clinic from 9-12. By night time last night had a low grade fever 99.6. At midnight was 100.0. A little stuffy and warm face but no other symptoms. Will probably test for Covid today. We went to an after season softball party at a kids bounce/play type place for 2 hours last Saturday. We both masked for most of it except when in party room at end (only ones masking up in our group, frustrating. Most of rest of kids/adults also not masked at place.) Hopefully just a little minor bug.
Jebus this is (nearly) exactly what I just went though.  Family had dominos over weekend.  6 year old threw up Sunday morning, and a few more times midday.  Sunday evening had a fever.  Took him to a drive in testing facility and waited THREE hours with a six year old.  Results came back yesterday afternoon negative.  Good luck!

 
File this under "please do the right thing even if it's not required under current mandates/restrictions". And it's been the same message as the last few months plus asking to mask up again. Pretty sure we'll be seeing a lot of this from hospitals and clinics across the country very soon if not already.

This is from Cleveland Clinic:

We’re begging you. Hospitals across Ohio have more COVID-19 patients in their ERs and ICUs than ever before. The overwhelming majority are unvaccinated. This is preventable — the best way to avoid serious illness is the vaccine. So, get vaccinated and get your booster. And keep taking all the standard precautions like social distancing, washing your hands, and of course, mask up — even if you’re vaccinated. If you do feel sick, get tested for COVID-19 at your local pharmacy, urgent care or physician’s office. Not the ER. Then please encourage neighbors, friends and family to take all these steps, too.

 
This is from Cleveland Clinic:

We’re begging you. Hospitals across Ohio have more COVID-19 patients in their ERs and ICUs than ever before. The overwhelming majority are unvaccinated. This is preventable — the best way to avoid serious illness is the vaccine.
From the Cleveland Clinic ... this message is pretty much a 180 degree turn.

 
Agreed. Every study and analysis I've read indicates that while yes, vaccinated can still spread, they do so at much less efficient capacity AND for a shorter timeframe than those who are unvaccinated.  But somehow that has become a "vaxxed can still spread it so why bother?" argument.
Binary thinking has been prevalent throughout the pandemic:

Masks don’t prevent all transmission has become “masks are useless”.

Fauci was wrong about wearing masks early on. Well, he’s a liar and we can’t trust anything he says.

Vaccinees can still catch and spread the virus = the vaccines don’t work.

Cases are ramping up and we may need to put some restrictions on activities…We’re gonna be on lockdown forever!  :cry:

What, we need a booster? That’s ridiculous, and I ain’t getting jabbed every 6 months for the rest of my life.

I could go on, but you get the point. Too many people refuse to accept nuance, preferring black-and-white blanket statements. Some is legitimate ignorance, but often it’s just an excuse to return to pre-2020 life.

 
This is all I want an answer too from the people really involved   .....

I will admit of covid fatigue.... I did everything "right" - we sheltered our lives for over a year, masked up (still do where required and some places its not), we are boosted.......  but I mean the end goal I feel keep changing.

It was flatten the curve, then I feel it switched to eradicate the virus (which isn't going to happen) too many people not follwing guidelines.....   I'm not making this political , I'm just asking what is the current "plan/goal"?

I've done everything that was asked of me but it appears that in the end its really not going to matter
Flatten the curve is still the plan. No one thinks we’re going to eradicate covid.

The timeline and execution of that plan has evolved with the virus.

 
Masks don’t prevent all transmission has become “masks are useless”.

Fauci was wrong about wearing masks early on. Well, he’s a liar and we can’t trust anything he says.

Vaccinees can still catch and spread the virus = the vaccines don’t work.

Cases are ramping up and we may need to put some restrictions on activities…We’re gonna be on lockdown forever!  :cry:

What, we need a booster? That’s ridiculous, and I ain’t getting jabbed every 6 months for the rest of my life.
Another favorite, kind of a catch-all:

Someone said something 6 months ago, and now they're saying something else! Why is stuff changing?!?

 
our own policy-makers still can't get out of their own way on testing and boosters, I'm not assigning much credibility to those folks anymore.  Sorry.)
I assume you mean experts and leaders like Dr. Fauci here.  So if you don't assign credibility to them, who do you assign credibility to?

 
Saw a study just now that said 70% less hospitalization compared to prior non-Omicron infections!  Woohoo!  Holy #### -- 70% is a huge #.  Let's get drunk and lick each other in a windowless room!

Oh. Wait. What's that highlighted part at the bottom?  Current Omicron and non-Omicron infections are both showing a 70% reduction compared to the prior Delta wave?  Just like you'd expect if the reduction in severity wasn't based on Omicron, but changes in the vax and prior infection rate in the population?   :kicksrock:

 
Saw a study just now that said 70% less hospitalization compared to prior non-Omicron infections!  Woohoo!  Holy #### -- 70% is a huge #.  Let's get drunk and lick each other in a windowless room!

Oh. Wait. What's that highlighted part at the bottom?  Current Omicron and non-Omicron infections are both showing a 70% reduction compared to the prior Delta wave?  Just like you'd expect if the reduction in severity wasn't based on Omicron, but changes in the vax and prior infection rate in the population?   :kicksrock:
This is still a great thing!

 
Right now, I think there's just a lot of disagreement over what the current goal should be, but it's a conversation that's either not taking place at all, or it's taking place in a very diagonal manner.  

On one hand, there's a group of people who are arguing, in essence, that the emergency phase of the pandemic is either over or nearly over, and the goal should be how we live with covid as an endemic disease, like influenza.  Those people tend to downplay the importance of NPIs because they view them as not sustainable and/or excessively costly relative to whatever benefits they provide.  These people don't worry much, relatively speaking, about case counts when those cases involve people recuperating at home.  (Obviously I'm painting with a pretty broad brush, but I want to try to state this position charitably). 

On the other hand, there's a group of people who are arguing, in essence, that our goal should be eradicating covid-19, the same way that we eradicated smallpox and polio.  These folks tend to emphasize NPIs as essential complements to vaccination as part of a multipronged effort to control spread, with the long-run goal of getting cases down to zero.  These people worry relatively more about case counts.  (Again, broad brush, charity, etc.) 

For the sake of completeness, I should add that there's a third camp that thinks that covid-19 isn't real, or was always just a flu, or that we should really be watching out for hippos instead, or whatever the argument is these days.  These folks were going maskless at their local Home Depot back in 2020 and they use terms like "pureblood" unironically today.  They never worried about case counts.  (A little less charity here). 

So basically it's "zero covid" vs. "vaxxed and relaxed" vs. "MAGA."  These camps don't share the same end goals.      
As usual, your message is concise and effective. Unfortunately, it’s not accurate IMO.

I don’t believe anyone reputable is suggesting covid will go the way of smallpox. It’s too contagious and immunity is imperfect. It would take decades of mitigation efforts to even sniff that goal, assuming the world population would comply, which we know ain’t happening. Moreover, we’ve eradicated exactly two viruses in all human history, so our track record isn’t great. Any chance we had at zero covid was aerosolized a few variants ago.

For most in the scientific community, the goal remains flattening the curve on healthcare resources. It’s no coincidence every FBG employed in the industry (who actually takes care of patients) is unified in recommending boosters, masks, curtailing big group activities, etc. We can see the train wreck coming (again). Vaxxed and relaxed ain’t gonna cut it, if omicron is even a fraction of delta’s virulence. And we shouldn’t wait for hospitals to be overwhelmed to adjust our behavior, as that puts us several weeks behind the eight ball.

But everyone is tired of acting like this is a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, so another painful surge is coming. It’s embarrassing that we can’t collectively outthink a mindless virus.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This is still a great thing!
Sure -- it heralds something approaching "herd immunity" in South Africa.

It will look similar in many parts of the US -- those with high vax/boosted rate or vax + prior infection rates.  And while there are 50MM people in the US who are neither vaxxed or previously infected, they skew younger.

The problem is that if we end up with 2x the cases of last winter you still end up with a large number of sick/dying people.

FWIW, I don't really know yet what I think is going to happen.  I'd buy anything between deaths stay steady at ~1000/day and rocket back up to insane numbers.  But I'm becoming more convinced that "milder" is probably not right -- it's just changes to the underlying population.  "Less impactful" maybe?

Either way, I do think this is the last wave.  A few months from now when this surge passes we'll have a lot of population immunity/protection AND treatments available.  I'd bet money that by Fall we're on the other side of the worst of COVID for the US.

 
jobarules said:
I know more people with covid this week than I did the entirety of the pandemic
Everyone I know with covid is starting to feel better already! It seems it's like a 3-4 day bug now. Taking about 20 people.

 
OK fair enough.  Our medical system has no interest in transparency.  It would be nice if the government made a better effort at peaking through the blinds sp the crazies had less fuel to their imaginations.

On the Thailand thing though - I am chuckling.  I don't know what metrics you are talking about but there is no chance they have handled this right.  I seriously doubt they are reporting what is happening accurately or honestly.  Plus, they have almost completely destroyed their tourism economy which was about 18% of GDP.  Think about it.  Imagine destroying 18% of our economy.  No thanks.

As an example of not reporting accurately how they report traffic fatalities is sad.  If you die on the spot it is a traffic death and counted.  If you get into an ambulance and are alive on arrival to a hospital and then die from injuries sustained in the accident it is not counted as a traffic fatality.  They do it because right now they are second - oops.  I was going to say second to Liberia but Thailand has jumped into the lead now.  They have the worst traffic fatality death rate in the world.    So I am skeptical of what they report regarding Covid. 

They also dragged their feet on the vaccine because it would have cost them money to buy it.  They failed to order Pfizer or Moderna early on and fell to the back of the pack in order of receiving it.  Then they tried Sinovac because it was cheapest (some donated by China).  And of course they lack the amount of co-morbidities that we enjoy here.  No, I wouldn't envy anything Thailand has done about Covid. 

Sorry for the rant.  I just learned this morning they have discontinued tourist entry via "test and go".  Unless they reinstate it before about January 6 my visit to see all my friends is off.  And my friends who have hung on owning restaurants and hotels are seeing their last chance to survive this financially go down the tubes.
Valid points about blunders Thailand has made along the way. But there is precedent for Thais managing public health effectively: look at how they handled HIV amongst sex workers, and their distribution of antiretrovirals. They were a model for the developing world then, and I suspect they’re doing better with covid than the US, even when you account for suspect reporting. Comparing our populations, it isn’t a fair fight though.

I’m less concerned about their tourism industry. Living in Hawaii, I’ve seen how tourism can be revived overnight. I’m sorry their policy is making your travel inconvenient atm.

 
Everyone I know with covid is starting to feel better already! It seems it's like a 3-4 day bug now. Taking about 20 people.
My wife was sick for 2-3 days with fever and aches.  She did have a weird skin pain/tingling for another 2 days but feels fine now.  Obviously no clue if she had Omicron and it’s just anecdotal but thought I’d share.

She is fully vaccinated but was just coming due for a booster.

 
I can see it from a duration point so maybe I need to narrow it down.

Can a pre-symptomatic vaccinated person spread the virus as easily as a pre-symptomatic unvaccinated person?
Unknown.

We know peak nasopharyngeal carriage of the virus among vaccinated and unvaccinated is about the same, at least as measured by NAATS like PCR. That being said, we don’t know all the characteristics of the viral replication curve in both hosts, nor do we understand the exact mechanism of presymptomatic transmission in the first place.

Moreover, NAATS always are prone to overestimate infectious virions, as they can amplify non-contagious viral parts. It’s pretty likely vaccinated people have more of those parts in their noses earlier than unvaxxed, because their immune systems have a head start fighting the virus, generating parts in the process.

 
IMHO, this isn't particularly important -- seems Delta and Omicron cases are equivalent, more or less. I understand that some in the media are reporting it as "more Omicron = bad", but I thinks that's way simplistic.
Agreed. 

It’s just more fuel for skeptics to poo-poo the numbers, and paint any Omicron predictions as “the sky is falling”. The same skeptics who are convinced Omicron marks the transition of covid from justaflu to justacold. 

To be clear, I don’t think the author was intending his analysis to be interpreted that way. But that’s how it will be used by misinformationists.

 
Couldn't help but go find this video -- you think we're at this point RIGHT NOW with COVID?
Not right now. It's gonna be regional but my prediction is we are at that point in NYC by mid-January.

Probably a hot take and I'll be called unrealistic but given the vax rate, the # of people with natural immunity, the # of people I currently know with it, and the South Africa curve that's my prediction. 

 
That’s a much better job than I did explaining it, though I think there is a little to add about mucosal immunity. Vaccinated people don’t automatically have it, as it takes a day or two to covert serum antibodies (IgG/M produced in response to vaccination) to antibodies in the nasopharynx (IgA). I’m pretty sure this time lag is one of the major reasons vaxxed can spread covid at all.

 
That’s a much better job than I did explaining it, though I think there is a little to add about mucosal immunity. Vaccinated people don’t automatically have it, as it takes a day or two to covert serum antibodies (IgG/M produced in response to vaccination) to antibodies in the nasopharynx (IgA). I’m pretty sure this time lag is one of the major reasons vaxxed can spread covid at all.
When we were discussing this stuff earlier today ... kept thinking "Let's effin' GO with the nasal vaccine!"

 
You can request free at home tests starting middle of next month but that may be too late by then
Somebody had posted the link to the site for requesting free tests in Colorado. I live here and had never heard of it. So I went and requested some. They just responded today and I still need to click on a link they sent and now officially request them and give my address. Said it would be three weeks before they were sent. 

 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top