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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Ongoing deaths of the unvaccinated
Its over for the rest of society and those who choose to remain unvaccinated that's their choice and they were never really concerned about covid in the first place.
Meaning its over for the vaccinated and its been over for the unvaccinated.
Its over.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I just don't understand what you think "over" means. Clearly when 1900 are dying it is not over. Your empathy? Clearly that's been over for a while.
I was thinking this will be the case which is why I don't think the mandate is necessary. Aint no way the hired help is gonna deep check all those many folks coming in all at once.
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
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belljr
Footballguy
Yeah I wasnt going to say anything because people might take that the wrong way but there is 1600 cancer deaths a day on average
https://cancerstatisticscenter.cancer.org/#!/
eta: I mean I would like for all those people to not die also but as Andy just posted where is the "acceptable" number?
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
But is zero a reasonable goal?
I'd offer that it's not. And then IS there point that's not zero but not 1900 where we can feel okay and "move on" ?
If it is... Well you're simply going to have trouble getting people on board with that.
That seven day average puts it about on par with diabetes.
What are the flu numbers? Before this pandemic I had no idea how many people died each year from the flu and was shocked by the answer. People seems to be "ok" with the number of deaths from the flu each year (as it really hasn't been talked about before this virus) so what is that rate?
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
12,000 - 52,000 / year
up to 143/day, varies by year.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The first result I found from the CDC site was for 2020 and that number for Influenza and pneumonia was 53,544. If you do the math, that's averages to 1026/week. Weekly probably isn't the best way to calculate the flu since it's mostly seasonal, but it gives the idea anyway.
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belljr
Footballguy
The past 10 years estimated averages out to just under 100 per day
Code:
SeasonHospitalizationsDeaths
Estimate95% UIEstimate95% UI
2010-2011290,000(270,000 – 350,000)37,000(32,000 – 51,000)
2011-2012140,000(130,000 – 190,000)12,000(11,000 – 23,000)
2012-2013570,000(530,000 – 680,000)43,000(37,000 – 57,000)
2013-2014350,000(320,000 – 390,000)38,000(33,000 – 50,000)
2014-2015590,000(540,000 – 680,000)51,000(44,000 – 64,000)
2015-2016280,000(220,000 – 480,000)23,000(17,000 – 35,000)
2016-2017500,000(380,000 – 860,000)38,000(29,000 – 61,000)
2017-2018710,000(560,000 – 1,100,000)52,000(37,000 – 95,500)
2018-2019380,000(300,000 – 660,000)28,000(19,000 – 97,000)
2019-2020*380,000(312,000 – 630,000)20,000(18,000 – 80,000)
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Jackstraw
Footballguy
All I'd say is we're somewhere north of "it's over! LULZ!"
You know the crazy part is the vast majority of these people dying right now most likely refused to get vaccinated indirectly causing their own problems. But I still can't disregard the loss of human life on that scale as no big deal. Mothers, fathers sisters brothers and all that.
Over what? A little shot and a thin fabric mask? This country is SOFT.
You know the crazy part is the vast majority of these people dying right now most likely refused to get vaccinated indirectly causing their own problems. But I still can't disregard the loss of human life on that scale as no big deal. Mothers, fathers sisters brothers and all that.
Over what? A little shot and a thin fabric mask? This country is SOFT.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You know perfectly well that 1900 vaccinated people are not dying daily. Knock it off with this talking point. It's irrelevant in a world where people are voluntarily choosing to forgo vaccination.Jackstraw said:
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Your thin fabric mask isn't doing anything. The CDC can't even find a statistically significant effect from cloth masking. Come on, man.
offdee
Footballguy
Nothing to adjust to, just keep wearing your mask. Nobody is forcing anybody to NOT wear a mask.Dragons said:
This is exactly why the immunocompromised are pushing to keep so hard...they would never admit it, but deep down they just don't want to have to feel like the outcast that's now wearing a mask when they don't have to.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Oh boy now semantics. Sorry I did not specify the proper mask.
Still tho people are dead and dying, but its no big deal really because reasons.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Hey, if you want to wear an N95 mask in perpetuity because some other person refuses to be vaccinated, great. Knock yourself out.
Leave the rest of us out of it.
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Currently the TSA mandate is scheduled to expire on March 18th I believe. They are discussing, but, given CDC guidelines I'd hope they don't extend it.
The largest union for flight attendants is lobbying for them to extend it.
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PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Pfizer dose for 5 - 11 year olds only 12% effective after one month Pfiser study says.
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PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
No not at all. We live with those numbers while taking very little precautions, certainly no mandates, to improve them.
BigJim®
Footballguy
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Well I didnt say "it's over". But the person who did was commenting on a link to a tweet about the CDC Community Transmission Levels. That's the CDC's new guidance that many states and counties are using to set or remove mask mandates. Mostly remove.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That’s the point.PhillipPhoto said:
Can we at least wait until covid isn’t the top killer in our country before declaring the pandemic over? And what about the rest of the world?
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
So another couple weeks? Sure I guess so. But the CDC revising the mask guidelines kind of kicks off a symbolic celebration.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The long term average for influenza is around 35k deaths/year. Covid is more than 10X that number atm.Andy Dufresne said:
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
We’re certainly close. Assuming the virus behaves itself and immunity against severe disease is durable, the US should be out of the woods in the spring.
But we have to be willing to reassess the situation if everything doesn’t go as planned, rather than dogmatically insisting it’s over.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'll admit I was wrong. I didn't use the "rolling average" idea correctly. The numbers are definitely higher than what I was saying.
The good news is that things are trending down again (unlike the things we were comparing against - diabetes, heart disease, etc).
These are the most current notations I could find (that were easy to quote). They are from Forbes:
The seven-day average of daily new cases was 62,556 Sunday.
The last time the U.S. reported that few cases was on July 26, when the country had a seven-day average of 60,452 daily new infections.
The significant decrease in case numbers points towards the end of the omicron surge, which saw some of the highest case numbers yet, though some health experts have warned this doesn’t signal the end of the pandemic.
However, the seven-day average of daily new deaths remained high at 1,868 Sunday, matching the seven-day average daily new deaths that were reported during the peak of the delta wave in September.
Though the number of new deaths remains high, it has decreased since February 2, when the U.S. saw a recent high of 2,614 deaths.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
There's a difference in interpretation as to the "it's over" idea here too.
It's true that it's not "over" in that people are still getting and dying from Covid. But that'll be true until the end of time. IOW it'll never be over as in it totally went away.
The debate is really about when "it's over" will be in terms of "out of sight, out mind". That is, knowing is impossible to get to zero, what's the level at which we're can to accept it and not stress over it anymore? That, of course, is a matter of opinion.
It's true that it's not "over" in that people are still getting and dying from Covid. But that'll be true until the end of time. IOW it'll never be over as in it totally went away.
The debate is really about when "it's over" will be in terms of "out of sight, out mind". That is, knowing is impossible to get to zero, what's the level at which we're can to accept it and not stress over it anymore? That, of course, is a matter of opinion.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
No, and I did just say my numbers were wrong.
But again, things are trending downwards.
Let's ask that question in reverse...if Covid gets to where is "just" as bad as the flu then is it "over"?
Getting COVID to being equivalent to the flu would be great. But I think you’re underestimating how far we need to go and how unwilling the ‘it’s over’ crowd is to taking those steps. Seems like it’s easier to adjust how many deaths are acceptable.
Is this try number six or seven declaring the pandemic is over? Hopefully this time the virus will listen to you.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Guys, if you use the word "over" in your post, you are inviting pedantry over the semantical nuances of what that word means.
If you think that the pandemic is no longer a big enough deal to justify intrusive policies -- in other words, if you're following the science -- just say that. No need to test the secondary deep when you just need to move the chains once so you can run out the clock.
If you think that the pandemic is no longer a big enough deal to justify intrusive policies -- in other words, if you're following the science -- just say that. No need to test the secondary deep when you just need to move the chains once so you can run out the clock.
Doug B
Footballguy
Friday, 2/18/2022 numbers
Tuesday, 2/22/2022 numbers
Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. In the United States:
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 821,375 on 1/13/2022, and was 60,404 on 2/28/2022. That represents 45 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 29 consecutive days from 2,660 on 1/29/2022 to 1,552 on 2/28/2022.
(Worldometers' U.S. COVID charts here)
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,105 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 247 on both 7/8/2022 and 7/9/2022
Tuesday, 2/22/2022 numbers
Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. In the United States:
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 821,375 on 1/13/2022, and was 60,404 on 2/28/2022. That represents 45 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 29 consecutive days from 2,660 on 1/29/2022 to 1,552 on 2/28/2022.
(Worldometers' U.S. COVID charts here)
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,105 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 247 on both 7/8/2022 and 7/9/2022
BigJim®
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm probably not going to understand the mentality behind that choice of words. I'd probably agree with the underlying points being made... to some extent society does need to let the chips fall where they may in spite of continuing deaths. But this... it's not appreciating continuing gravity of a lot of outcomes for family members, friends, coworkers. The objective is clearly being a needling provocateur. I just don't understand it.
Doug B
Footballguy
One thing to note, though, about COVID's low water marks:
247 deaths per day is still about 75% worse than the most severe of flu seasons (~140/day). COVID numbers are trending strongly in the right direction TODAY. The U.S. still has to whittle the COVID numbers down another 95% yet to get it down into "bad flu season" territory.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I believe the death of a single child is unacceptable.
It's stuff like this that frustrates me to no end. And I believe it's one of the causes of pushback, if not the primary one.
The response becomes "If zero is your criteria, then I'm done trying. 'Cuz that's not possible."
It's stuff like this that frustrates me to no end. And I believe it's one of the causes of pushback, if not the primary one.
The response becomes "If zero is your criteria, then I'm done trying. 'Cuz that's not possible."
That's why I asked in this thread what the flu numbers were. It appears people are fine with the flu numbers as it wasn't a main stream concern for all these years and because of that it shocked me when I saw how many die from it each year.
I figured if the Covid numbers were close (or getting closer) to the flu numbers that might be an acceptable level to deem this "over" (I know that word seems to trigger some but it's not what I am trying to do). I have no doubt that eventually (who knows how long from now) that Covid will be treated like the flu in society. I mean the flu when it first came out was pretty deadly too but eventually most everyone moved past it.
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