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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

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He's using temporal correlation to imply linkage, but also does speak of the possibility that it could be 'something else' besides the vaxxes underlying the cause. His main and strongest assertions, which I wholeheartedly agree with are:

a. This is not some small statistical anomaly, but a very disturbing and accelerating trend that has been forming for 2+ years and is still ongoing, even up to the latest months of data in mid-2023, and

b. Why isn't this being more widely reported and discussed by mainstream media and govt officials?!? Whether it's the vaxxes or Long Covid or latent and lingering lockdown effects, or something entirely unrelated, these numbers are astounding in relative scale compared to norm. Why aren't we actively and desperately as a society trying to find causation, as you suggest?

Dowd's personal hypothesis of root cause is that the vaxxes have undermined peoples' internal health systems en masse, causing a wide-ranging and slowly-evolving scope of harm, which BTW, was also an early 'conspiracy theory' re: mRNA vax technology. That's an unproven and obviously very debatable hypothesis, so let's not go there just yet. Most important first step is to acknowledge that though Cause remains Unknown, we in fact have a major problem on our hands that is so far not being acknowledged widely and needs to be asap, so we can begin meaningfully coalescing a society-wide search for both cause and solution. The data is simply undeniable that something real and awful is happening around us. 20+ sigma events are simply unheard of in normal distribution patterns, and we have several of them here across multiple seemingly unrelated maladies. HOW?!?
 
I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.
Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

So? I didn’t realize I stumbled in to ScandinavianFBGS.com. That’s not what happened in the US or a lot of places.
That has to be the worst response to a directly relevant reply that I have ever seen in the FBG... and yes, the American FBG.
 
20+ sigma events are simply unheard of in normal distribution patterns, and we have several of them here across multiple seemingly unrelated maladies. HOW?!?
Or perhaps there are issues with the data set he's using. Did something change in the way the data is collected, processed, analyzed, or tabulated?

Also, what is the magnitude in terms of population here? Is it 1 out of 10, 1 out of 1000? 1 out of 1 million? What's the denominator?
 
I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.
Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

So? I didn’t realize I stumbled in to ScandinavianFBGS.com. That’s not what happened in the US or a lot of places.
That has to be the worst response to a directly relevant reply that I have ever seen in the FBG... and yes, the American FBG.

I don’t see how a discussion about what happened turns in to what we should have done. :confused:
 
Or perhaps there are issues with the data set he's using. Did something change in the way the data is collected, processed, analyzed, or tabulated?

Perhaps. I don't know. Would be nice to find out.

Also, what is the magnitude in terms of population here? Is it 1 out of 10, 1 out of 1000? 1 out of 1 million? What's the denominator?

"When looking at the yearly rise in total (new) claims we observe that in 2020 there was no significant change from the 2016-2019 average, while in 2021 the number of claims jumped to 99,642 (20.5%) above average and in 2022 it jumped to 372,540 (76.7%) above average."

This would imply that in 2022 the absolute number of accepted new disability claims in the UK was (372,540 / 0.767) + 372,540 = 858,250.
 
He's using temporal correlation to imply linkage, but also does speak of the possibility that it could be 'something else' besides the vaxxes underlying the cause. His main and strongest assertions, which I wholeheartedly agree with are:

a. This is not some small statistical anomaly, but a very disturbing and accelerating trend that has been forming for 2+ years and is still ongoing, even up to the latest months of data in mid-2023, and

b. Why isn't this being more widely reported and discussed by mainstream media and govt officials?!? Whether it's the vaxxes or Long Covid or latent and lingering lockdown effects, or something entirely unrelated, these numbers are astounding in relative scale compared to norm. Why aren't we actively and desperately as a society trying to find causation, as you suggest?

Dowd's personal hypothesis of root cause is that the vaxxes have undermined peoples' internal health systems en masse, causing a wide-ranging and slowly-evolving scope of harm, which BTW, was also an early 'conspiracy theory' re: mRNA vax technology. That's an unproven and obviously very debatable hypothesis, so let's not go there just yet. Most important first step is to acknowledge that though Cause remains Unknown, we in fact have a major problem on our hands that is so far not being acknowledged widely and needs to be asap, so we can begin meaningfully coalescing a society-wide search for both cause and solution. The data is simply undeniable that something real and awful is happening around us. 20+ sigma events are simply unheard of in normal distribution patterns, and we have several of them here across multiple seemingly unrelated maladies. HOW?!?
Didn't read the data analysis. Does he give a reason for that hypothesis?

Seems like an odd hypothesis on its face. You'd think the first cause you'd hypothesize is that the virus is the cause. Has he ruled that out? Why?


Weren't heart disease and other issues more prevalent in the years after the Spanish flu and it was attributed to that virus? A novel virus seems like an obvious cause to long term effects, moreso than a vaccine. No?
 
A novel virus seems like an obvious cause to long term effects, moreso than a vaccine. No?

I'm not certain, but I think he and another data scientist I read up on last year (whose name escapes me) who was analyzing VAERS data looking for statistical signals, both came to the assertion that the temporally-connected spike pattern started in mid 2021, well after Covid had manifest, and almost in lock-step with the vaccine rollout and surge in coerced uptake.

That temporal relationship is compelling, but not definitive. Hence why I keep saying that the underlying cause isn't yet clear. It could indeed be Long Covid at play. I've freely and repeatedly acknowledged that, and even Dowd has conceded similar, though less frequently that I have.

Regardless of the cause, step one is acknowledging that Houston, we have a problem. Up until now, that in and of itself has been challenging to say the least.
 
Regardless of the cause, step one is acknowledging that Houston, we have a problem. Up until now, that in and of itself has been challenging to say the least.
I hate to be pedantic about this, but we have a data set that shows that there might be a problem. I would like the NHS or whomever puts together the PIP data to weigh in that there was not some other flaw in the data set that created this pattern.
 
I hate to be pedantic about this, but we have a data set that shows that there might be a problem. I would like the NHS or whomever puts together the PIP data to weigh in that there was not some other flaw in the data set that created this pattern.

I'd place the odds at small at best that this is a data reporting issue. If it were a single blip, then I'd feel differently, but we have a 2+ years of a steadily rising trend line, which looks like a hockey stick when extended back to 2016-19. Not saying your suggestion is completely invalid or impossible, but I find it odd that you are clinging to it so strongly when the trending nature and long timeline of the chart suggests completely otherwise. TBH, it comes across like another expedient and dismissive denial tactic.

That said, I'll lend you some support... The US military's DMED database showed something similar last year, and when whistleblowers started alerting the public, they went back and retroactively 'corrected' the baseline years' data so as to make it look like a much less alarming increase in numbers over time. They could do that because that database simply tracked reports of medical events, but didn't have a direct tie to payments accounting records. This UK PIP data does have such a tie, as these figures show how many people are being paid out disability claims. If there was fudging going on in the former instance, it hopefully won't be so easy to do so this time.
 
The graph could be presenting correctly and underlying poor data set. The fact that the trend is so clear across the whole set makes me think that there's a data issue. I'd like confirmation from the people who put that data together that it is a) correct and doesnt combine two different data sets or something; that the data in 2022 was colected and processed identically as the 2019 data and b) that they too see the same trends in their data.

Why isn't the UK government more concerned about a nearly doubling in disability payments in 3 years?
 
I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.
Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

So? I didn’t realize I stumbled in to ScandinavianFBGS.com. That’s not what happened in the US or a lot of places.
That has to be the worst response to a directly relevant reply that I have ever seen in the FBG... and yes, the American FBG.

I don’t see how a discussion about what happened turns in to what we should have done. :confused:
I don't know how to reply to that.
 
And we have another one...

"On Monday, KJ Hamler revealed he'd been diagnosed with a mild heart irritation that prompted the Broncos to waive him with a non-football injury designation, although it is expected Denver will attempt to bring him back when ready, per NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo."
 
This is sort of how I feel in transgender arguments when this sort of stuff starts happening. The people on the "front lines" get all hysterical about a pro or con side of the issue and it's impossible to have reasoned debate with either side or position lest one give just the tiniest of inches to the enemy. In recent pages, that's meant that any threat of myocarditis shouldn't be discussed because it will dissuade people from getting the vaccine even though it's perfectly logical that the vaccine causes myocarditis and that one position doesn't make getting the vaccine mutually exclusive. It just is.

Truth is truth and facts are facts. We would all do better to stick to that rather than impassioned pleas for normative reasons.
I acknowledge there are vaccine-associated myocarditis cases, but they aren’t common, and usually inconsequential.

I strongly object to the idea covid “wasn’t all that bad”, and isn’t still impacting society in meaningful ways.

I also think comparing frontline (hate quotes omitted) healthcare workers to veterans is valid. The early days of covid were pretty horrific, and certainly may have led to PTSD in some.
 
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Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
Well, my comment was specifically about healthy adults under 40, so pointing out the existence of non-healthy adults and people over 40 isn't particularly relevant. I know those people exist, and I was very explicitly talking about other people.

Again, why is it so hard for you people to follow very simple, straightforward arguments?
My reading comprehension is fine, thanks. To review, below is the exchange which led to this discussion:
I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.
To recap: Chadstroma says covid is only marginally worse than the common cold. You agree, and add most workers had nothing to fear from it.

He‘s wrong in his assessment of covid relative to the cold. You’re wrong for agreeing with that erroneous assessment. I also think it’s off-base to minimize the impact of covid to its IFR in young, healthy people. Even if one ignores the sizable chunk of the workforce with one or more risk factors for severe covid, or lost productivity incurred among healthy workers contracting covid, lower risk people still have loved ones with higher risk, at the minimum. Arguably, everyone had something to fear, particularly early in the pandemic, when we knew less, had fewer prevention/treatment options, and the virus was more deadly.

The last three years didn’t happen because modern civilization is perilously fragile. The meltdown occurred because we’ve not seen an infectious threat like covid in our lifetime. This is true even in hindsight, despite normalcy returning to some facets of society.

If a new, contagious disease becoming the top daily killer for months on end and crippling the world economy was not “all that bad”, I’d hate to see what you think warrants widespread concern.

ETA The median age of the US labor force is a little bit over 40 anyway. Between age, obesity and common medical conditions, most of our workers have at least some individual risk from SARS-CoV2.
 
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I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.
If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.
Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
The broken system was/still is overwhelmed.

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus. And those numbers were even higher earlier in the pandemic, so please stop comparing covid to a cold.
I made one post about the cold when I was thinking of the flu.

70% of all U.S. COVID deaths were of those over the age of 70. The average age of deceased was 79.5 years, median 80.5. Why? Because these people are highly susceptible to dying. If they get the flu then that could do it to them as well. The big difference is that widespread use of fly shots for that age group. Unless the COVID vaccine, it was doing the job flu would have done without them getting flu shots every year.
Flu typically kills about 35K per year. Why were so many more people dying of covid?

As for the from/with argument to which you’ve already alluded, why so many EXCESS DEATHS during the pandemic?
 
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Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?
No, I wasn’t one of ”those people”. And I hardly think my reaction qualifies as being “set off.”

But it’s worth noting: TX and FL death rates from covid are 3-4X that of my very restrictive state, HI. It’s also notable the US death rate is top 20 in the world, roughly 5-6X greater than mask-happy places like S Korea and Japan (there are many other confounding variables at work, obviously).

I think you work in finance/real estate. If someone dismissed mortgage interest rates tripling as “not that bad”, how would you react?
 
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The most obvious point of rebuttal is that correlation is not causation.
It's the exact same thing with all these "sources". This has been a fundamental problem the entire time. NONE of them have EVER linked to cause. It's all supposition. Fortunately, the standard is different among the scientific community.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
Well, my comment was specifically about healthy adults under 40, so pointing out the existence of non-healthy adults and people over 40 isn't particularly relevant. I know those people exist, and I was very explicitly talking about other people.

Again, why is it so hard for you people to follow very simple, straightforward arguments?
My reading comprehension is fine, thanks. To review, below is the exchange which led to this discussion:
I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.
To recap: Chadstroma says covid is only marginally worse than the common cold. You agree, and add most workers had nothing to fear from it.

He‘s wrong in his assessment of covid relative to the cold. You’re wrong for agreeing with that erroneous assessment. I also think it’s off-base to minimize the impact of covid to its IFR in young, healthy people. Even if one ignores the sizable chunk of the workforce with one or more risk factors for severe covid, or lost productivity incurred among healthy workers contracting covid, lower risk people still have loved ones with higher risk, at the minimum. Arguably, everyone had something to fear, particularly early in the pandemic, when we knew less, had fewer prevention/treatment options, and the virus was more deadly.

The last three years didn’t happen because modern civilization is perilously fragile. The meltdown occurred because we’ve not seen an infectious threat like covid in our lifetime. This is true even in hindsight, despite normalcy returning to some facets of society.

If a new, contagious disease becoming the top daily killer for months on end and crippling the world economy was not “all that bad”, I’d hate to see what you think warrants widespread concern.
Your reading comprehension is not actually okay if that was your takeaway.

I didn't say that covid is "only marginally worse than the common cold," and the thing I was very obviously agreeing with was that poster's point about supply chains being fragile. Go back and read the post if you don't believe me. Although, while we're on the topic, covid really wasn't all that qualitatively different from influenza in the population that I was talking about. You know that perfectly well. In this context "covid wasn't really that bad" doesn't mean that covid wasn't bad -- it means that covid could have been a lot worse. A MERS infection, for example, is about a thousand times riskier than a covid infection*. In that context, covid really does belong in the same general bucket as influenza, as opposed more dangerous pathogens. (Seriously -- if I had to choose, I would rather get covid-19 again than get influenza, and I don't think I'm irrational to feel that way. Obviously I'd prefer a cold over either. And of course, the flu has given us covid-19-like pandemics in the past, which is another point of similarity.)

Here's the thing though. Over the past week or so, I have gotten dog-piled by people in this thread over the following claims:

1) It is reasonably likely that covid originated from the Wuhan Institute of VIrology. Even if it didn't, that's a highly plausible scenario that should not be casually dismissed.
2) mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis in rare cases.
3) People who were otherwise healthy and not too old were not in any serious danger of dying from covid, even in the pre-vaccine era.

I know why those statements are triggering to you. All three of them are coded as "conspiracy-adjacent" or "anti-vaxx-adjacent" in your little world, and seeing them expressed in writing sets you and other people in this thread off. But all three of those statements are empirically true, with the caveat that we can quibble over what "reasonably likely" means in (1). I don't believe any conspiracy theories involving the pandemic, and I was first in line when it was my turn to get vaccinated. But we are adults, not toddlers, and we can hold an assortment of ideas in our heads simultaneously. We all would have preferred for the vaccines not to have side effects, but they do have side effects, and some of them are serious. People who can't acknowledge that are just being childish. Covid sucked, but it could have sucked much, much worse. Again, it is childish to pretend otherwise. Covid killed off a lot of people who old and/or infirm while passing over people who were young and healthy. That might offend your sense of justice, but the virus doesn't care about your sense of justice.

Some of you folks seem to expect that every fact of the world will neatly line up with your policy preferences. That's not how the real world works. Not in this context. Not in any context.

I have an unusually full calendar today and I've said what I had to say, so I will let you and your little clique go back to your hand-wringing. But do understand that my tolerance for this sort of thing has reached its end. If you, or any other poster, don't want to discuss this topic in good faith, or if you just want to take pot-shots at people, either put me on ignore or expect that you will not receive a respectful response. If a moderator wants to pull me aside and tell me to back off, that is 100% fine. You, however, are not a moderator and you can absolutely get bent with the tone policing.

* I know you know this, but anybody else reading this post who thinks I'm exaggerating to make a point should look it up. That's not an exaggeration.
 
Did something change in the way the data is collected, processed, analyzed, or tabulated?
The most logical explanation is that people's behavior changed in reporting. Once all the free money was being offered to support people/businesses/companies, it's very likely that a lot more people would "report" incidents/cases in an effort to collect said free money. There are literally dozens of different scenarios that COULD explain this. Until those a fleshed out and determined, stuff like this is rather useless as evidence of anything meaningful.
 
Here's the thing though. Over the past week or so, I have gotten dog-piled by people in this thread over the following claims:

1) It is reasonably likely that covid originated from the Wuhan Institute of VIrology. Even if it didn't, that's a highly plausible scenario that should not be casually dismissed.
2) mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis in rare cases.
3) People who were otherwise healthy and not too old were not in any serious danger of dying from covid, even in the pre-vaccine era.

If you seriously think you were dog-piled over those 3 statements, then I think your reading of the room is a little off. The vast majority of us like you and think you are a good and smart poster - and I more or less agree with those 3 things above. You may feel justified in your somewhat recent posting style but the rest of us have noticed - name-calling and the in your face style isn't the IK we've all known and liked for many years. You do what you feel you need but don't act shocked if/when you get called out for it.
 
Here's the thing though. Over the past week or so, I have gotten dog-piled by people in this thread over the following claims:

1) It is reasonably likely that covid originated from the Wuhan Institute of VIrology. Even if it didn't, that's a highly plausible scenario that should not be casually dismissed.
2) mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis in rare cases.
3) People who were otherwise healthy and not too old were not in any serious danger of dying from covid, even in the pre-vaccine era.

If you seriously think you were dog-piled over those 3 statements, then I think your reading of the room is a little off. The vast majority of us like you and think you are a good and smart poster - and I more or less agree with those 3 things above. You may feel justified in your somewhat recent posting style but the rest of us have noticed - name-calling and the in your face style isn't the IK we've all known and liked for many years. You do what you feel you need but don't act shocked if/when you get called out for it.
Such a martyr. I love the when I wrote "agreed" I didn't mean I agreed with something he literally wrote that I quoted, it's so obvious that I was agreeing with something that he didn't explicitly state and anyone who can't see that is an idiot schtick.
 
I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.
If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.
Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
The broken system was/still is overwhelmed.

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus. And those numbers were even higher earlier in the pandemic, so please stop comparing covid to a cold.
I made one post about the cold when I was thinking of the flu.

70% of all U.S. COVID deaths were of those over the age of 70. The average age of deceased was 79.5 years, median 80.5. Why? Because these people are highly susceptible to dying. If they get the flu then that could do it to them as well. The big difference is that widespread use of fly shots for that age group. Unless the COVID vaccine, it was doing the job flu would have done without them getting flu shots every year.
Flu typically kills about 35K per year. Why were so many more people dying of covid?

As for the from/with argument to which you’ve already alluded, why so many EXCESS DEATHS during the pandemic?
I already pointed out that the elderly, who are the mostly the ones dying, would have much higher death rates from the flu if not for the fact that we have, for years, given them annual fly shots. See the Spanish Flu for an idea of how the flu can be deadly as well without large scale flu shots.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?
No, I wasn’t one of ”those people”. And I hardly think my reaction qualifies as being “set off.”

But it’s worth noting: TX and FL death rates from covid are 3-4X that of my very restrictive state, HI. It’s also notable the US death rate is top 20 in the world, roughly 5-6X greater than mask-happy places like S Korea and Japan (there are many other confounding variables at work, obviously).

I think you work in finance/real estate. If someone dismissed mortgage interest rates tripling as “not that bad”, how would you react?
ACTUALLY.... I would react with a nod of approval if someone said that. Why? Because I am looking at the big picture. Mortgage interest rates are right about what is the historic norm right now. It is the people freaking out about interest rates rising that I have to pull them back and explain that they got overly use to an abnormal market over the last few years and that is not something that they should expect to return or be viewed as 'normal'. Saying all of that does not negate the fact that the higher interest rates do not have a real impact on people and the market. It does. It is just having a full understanding of interest rates and the market.

So, that is a great analogy because pointing out that COVID is not nearly as bad as we had feared does not mean that people did not die and that that is sad. Pointing out that the deaths are disproportionately of those over age 70 isn't heartless but just pointing to facts. Pointing out that there are reasons behind statistics and that statistics without analysis mean nothing is just actually trying to talk about that subject rationally without political agenda.

My question for you on that 3-4 times death rates.... was that for the entirety of the pandemic or in the timeline AFTER they opened up? Because if it is not looking at the data set for a comparison of after they opened up than those numbers have no relevance and can not be used for comparative analysis. Again, statistics without analysis are meaningless.
 
Once all the free money was being offered to support people/businesses/companies, it's very likely that a lot more people would "report" incidents/cases in an effort to collect said free money.

Socialized healthcare a d disability benefits existed in the UK before Covid.
 
I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.

Of course, some of that had to do with government policies like shelter-in-place orders, so this was a bit of a choice variable. But if covid had been more deadly or if it had affected working-age adults or especially young people, I think we would have had a lot of folks refusing to report to work even if governments were imploring everyone to soldier on. That would have been a disaster well beyond anything that I would have seen coming in March 2020.
After all the pearl clutching following this post, I believe the bolded was overlooked and is quite important. To wit: had Covid been more dangerous, society would have largely self-corrected. For many of us, we didn't know anyone who died or even became seriously ill. When the facts on the ground didn't match all the fear in the headlines, people became cynical about everything. Conversely, those who were more directly affected by illness or death were far more likely to be compliant with any and all restrictions and novel therapies (like mRNA's). 99.9% of people are going to act in their own self-interest. If they see people getting seriously ill all around them, they're not going to question masks or pound the table for their kids to be in school, and they're CERTAINLY not going to insist they go to work themselves. Heck, people don't want to go to work now because they think their commute is inhumane (I'm one of them tbh)...had they really thought there was a meaningful chance they'd contract a virus which could kill them, NOBODY would have gone out in public or screamed for their right to do so.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
Well, my comment was specifically about healthy adults under 40, so pointing out the existence of non-healthy adults and people over 40 isn't particularly relevant. I know those people exist, and I was very explicitly talking about other people.

Again, why is it so hard for you people to follow very simple, straightforward arguments?
My reading comprehension is fine, thanks. To review, below is the exchange which led to this discussion:
I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.
To recap: Chadstroma says covid is only marginally worse than the common cold. You agree, and add most workers had nothing to fear from it.

He‘s wrong in his assessment of covid relative to the cold. You’re wrong for agreeing with that erroneous assessment. I also think it’s off-base to minimize the impact of covid to its IFR in young, healthy people. Even if one ignores the sizable chunk of the workforce with one or more risk factors for severe covid, or lost productivity incurred among healthy workers contracting covid, lower risk people still have loved ones with higher risk, at the minimum. Arguably, everyone had something to fear, particularly early in the pandemic, when we knew less, had fewer prevention/treatment options, and the virus was more deadly.

The last three years didn’t happen because modern civilization is perilously fragile. The meltdown occurred because we’ve not seen an infectious threat like covid in our lifetime. This is true even in hindsight, despite normalcy returning to some facets of society.

If a new, contagious disease becoming the top daily killer for months on end and crippling the world economy was not “all that bad”, I’d hate to see what you think warrants widespread concern.
Your reading comprehension is not actually okay if that was your takeaway.

I didn't say that covid is "only marginally worse than the common cold," and the thing I was very obviously agreeing with was that poster's point about supply chains being fragile. Go back and read the post if you don't believe me. Although, while we're on the topic, covid really wasn't all that qualitatively different from influenza in the population that I was talking about. You know that perfectly well. In this context "covid wasn't really that bad" doesn't mean that covid wasn't bad -- it means that covid could have been a lot worse. A MERS infection, for example, is about a thousand times riskier than a covid infection*. In that context, covid really does belong in the same general bucket as influenza, as opposed more dangerous pathogens. (Seriously -- if I had to choose, I would rather get covid-19 again than get influenza, and I don't think I'm irrational to feel that way. Obviously I'd prefer a cold over either. And of course, the flu has given us covid-19-like pandemics in the past, which is another point of similarity.)

Here's the thing though. Over the past week or so, I have gotten dog-piled by people in this thread over the following claims:

1) It is reasonably likely that covid originated from the Wuhan Institute of VIrology. Even if it didn't, that's a highly plausible scenario that should not be casually dismissed.
2) mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis in rare cases.
3) People who were otherwise healthy and not too old were not in any serious danger of dying from covid, even in the pre-vaccine era.

I know why those statements are triggering to you. All three of them are coded as "conspiracy-adjacent" or "anti-vaxx-adjacent" in your little world, and seeing them expressed in writing sets you and other people in this thread off. But all three of those statements are empirically true, with the caveat that we can quibble over what "reasonably likely" means in (1). I don't believe any conspiracy theories involving the pandemic, and I was first in line when it was my turn to get vaccinated. But we are adults, not toddlers, and we can hold an assortment of ideas in our heads simultaneously. We all would have preferred for the vaccines not to have side effects, but they do have side effects, and some of them are serious. People who can't acknowledge that are just being childish. Covid sucked, but it could have sucked much, much worse. Again, it is childish to pretend otherwise. Covid killed off a lot of people who old and/or infirm while passing over people who were young and healthy. That might offend your sense of justice, but the virus doesn't care about your sense of justice.

Some of you folks seem to expect that every fact of the world will neatly line up with your policy preferences. That's not how the real world works. Not in this context. Not in any context.

I have an unusually full calendar today and I've said what I had to say, so I will let you and your little clique go back to your hand-wringing. But do understand that my tolerance for this sort of thing has reached its end. If you, or any other poster, don't want to discuss this topic in good faith, or if you just want to take pot-shots at people, either put me on ignore or expect that you will not receive a respectful response. If a moderator wants to pull me aside and tell me to back off, that is 100% fine. You, however, are not a moderator and you can absolutely get bent with the tone policing.

* I know you know this, but anybody else reading this post who thinks I'm exaggerating to make a point should look it up. That's not an exaggeration.
I read, and quoted your post, verbatim. Despite your usual eloquence, you miscommunicated, then lashed out at those who pointed it out.

And even if you solely intended to emphasize what you claim, that and many of your subsequent posts are off-base imo.
 
I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.
If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.
Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
The broken system was/still is overwhelmed.

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus. And those numbers were even higher earlier in the pandemic, so please stop comparing covid to a cold.
I made one post about the cold when I was thinking of the flu.

70% of all U.S. COVID deaths were of those over the age of 70. The average age of deceased was 79.5 years, median 80.5. Why? Because these people are highly susceptible to dying. If they get the flu then that could do it to them as well. The big difference is that widespread use of fly shots for that age group. Unless the COVID vaccine, it was doing the job flu would have done without them getting flu shots every year.
Flu typically kills about 35K per year. Why were so many more people dying of covid?

As for the from/with argument to which you’ve already alluded, why so many EXCESS DEATHS during the pandemic?
I already pointed out that the elderly, who are the mostly the ones dying, would have much higher death rates from the flu if not for the fact that we have, for years, given them annual fly shots. See the Spanish Flu for an idea of how the flu can be deadly as well without large scale flu shots.
Since my comprehension skills are in question, let me see if I understand: Is your argument seasonal flu would kill as many annually as Covid, absent the flu vaccine?

If it is, I suggest you do some reading on the relative efficacy of flu vs. Covid vaccines.

I’ll also remind you: seasonal flu hasn’t approach the virulence of 1918’s strain (vaccine or not) in our lifetime.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?
No, I wasn’t one of ”those people”. And I hardly think my reaction qualifies as being “set off.”

But it’s worth noting: TX and FL death rates from covid are 3-4X that of my very restrictive state, HI. It’s also notable the US death rate is top 20 in the world, roughly 5-6X greater than mask-happy places like S Korea and Japan (there are many other confounding variables at work, obviously).

I think you work in finance/real estate. If someone dismissed mortgage interest rates tripling as “not that bad”, how would you react?
ACTUALLY.... I would react with a nod of approval if someone said that. Why? Because I am looking at the big picture. Mortgage interest rates are right about what is the historic norm right now. It is the people freaking out about interest rates rising that I have to pull them back and explain that they got overly use to an abnormal market over the last few years and that is not something that they should expect to return or be viewed as 'normal'. Saying all of that does not negate the fact that the higher interest rates do not have a real impact on people and the market. It does. It is just having a full understanding of interest rates and the market.

So, that is a great analogy because pointing out that COVID is not nearly as bad as we had feared does not mean that people did not die and that that is sad. Pointing out that the deaths are disproportionately of those over age 70 isn't heartless but just pointing to facts. Pointing out that there are reasons behind statistics and that statistics without analysis mean nothing is just actually trying to talk about that subject rationally without political agenda.

My question for you on that 3-4 times death rates.... was that for the entirety of the pandemic or in the timeline AFTER they opened up? Because if it is not looking at the data set for a comparison of after they opened up than those numbers have no relevance and can not be used for comparative analysis. Again, statistics without analysis are meaningless.
To be clear, I didn’t mean rates jumping from historical lows to below historical average. For this thought experiment, imagine rates jumped to like 15-20%, tomorrow. Still NBD?
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?
No, I wasn’t one of ”those people”. And I hardly think my reaction qualifies as being “set off.”

But it’s worth noting: TX and FL death rates from covid are 3-4X that of my very restrictive state, HI. It’s also notable the US death rate is top 20 in the world, roughly 5-6X greater than mask-happy places like S Korea and Japan (there are many other confounding variables at work, obviously).

I think you work in finance/real estate. If someone dismissed mortgage interest rates tripling as “not that bad”, how would you react?
ACTUALLY.... I would react with a nod of approval if someone said that. Why? Because I am looking at the big picture. Mortgage interest rates are right about what is the historic norm right now. It is the people freaking out about interest rates rising that I have to pull them back and explain that they got overly use to an abnormal market over the last few years and that is not something that they should expect to return or be viewed as 'normal'. Saying all of that does not negate the fact that the higher interest rates do not have a real impact on people and the market. It does. It is just having a full understanding of interest rates and the market.

So, that is a great analogy because pointing out that COVID is not nearly as bad as we had feared does not mean that people did not die and that that is sad. Pointing out that the deaths are disproportionately of those over age 70 isn't heartless but just pointing to facts. Pointing out that there are reasons behind statistics and that statistics without analysis mean nothing is just actually trying to talk about that subject rationally without political agenda.

My question for you on that 3-4 times death rates.... was that for the entirety of the pandemic or in the timeline AFTER they opened up? Because if it is not looking at the data set for a comparison of after they opened up than those numbers have no relevance and can not be used for comparative analysis. Again, statistics without analysis are meaningless.
To be clear, I didn’t mean rates jumping from historical lows to below historical average. For this thought experiment, imagine rates jumped to like 15-20%, tomorrow. Still NBD?
Way to move the finish line. Nice. I am impressed.
 
For many of us, we didn't know anyone who died or even became seriously ill.
I am unsure if your take is accurate. You may not have heard about serious illnesses or deaths, but I would just about guarantee that just about every person in here did in know someone who died or had a rough time with covid.
I suspect you are correct. We could do a poll, but that would be pretty tasteless.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.
For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?
No, I wasn’t one of ”those people”. And I hardly think my reaction qualifies as being “set off.”

But it’s worth noting: TX and FL death rates from covid are 3-4X that of my very restrictive state, HI. It’s also notable the US death rate is top 20 in the world, roughly 5-6X greater than mask-happy places like S Korea and Japan (there are many other confounding variables at work, obviously).

I think you work in finance/real estate. If someone dismissed mortgage interest rates tripling as “not that bad”, how would you react?
ACTUALLY.... I would react with a nod of approval if someone said that. Why? Because I am looking at the big picture. Mortgage interest rates are right about what is the historic norm right now. It is the people freaking out about interest rates rising that I have to pull them back and explain that they got overly use to an abnormal market over the last few years and that is not something that they should expect to return or be viewed as 'normal'. Saying all of that does not negate the fact that the higher interest rates do not have a real impact on people and the market. It does. It is just having a full understanding of interest rates and the market.

So, that is a great analogy because pointing out that COVID is not nearly as bad as we had feared does not mean that people did not die and that that is sad. Pointing out that the deaths are disproportionately of those over age 70 isn't heartless but just pointing to facts. Pointing out that there are reasons behind statistics and that statistics without analysis mean nothing is just actually trying to talk about that subject rationally without political agenda.

My question for you on that 3-4 times death rates.... was that for the entirety of the pandemic or in the timeline AFTER they opened up? Because if it is not looking at the data set for a comparison of after they opened up than those numbers have no relevance and can not be used for comparative analysis. Again, statistics without analysis are meaningless.
To be clear, I didn’t mean rates jumping from historical lows to below historical average. For this thought experiment, imagine rates jumped to like 15-20%, tomorrow. Still NBD?
Way to move the finish line. Nice. I am impressed.
Huh? I know my intent. Sorry if I didn’t communicate clearly the first time, but I’ll accept your implied concession that historically bad interest rates would in fact be a big deal. Kinda like once-in-a-century pandemics.

My comparison was meant to illustrate the difference between Covid and flu (although it really should’ve been the common cold, your original reference). Still, I’m being generous only tripling the hypothetical rate.
 

The device requires only one or two breaths and provides results in less than a minute.​
The same group of researchers that developed the device recently published a new study in Nature Communications about an air monitor to detect airborne SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—within about five minutes in hospitals, schools, and other public places.​
 
For many of us, we didn't know anyone who died or even became seriously ill.
I am unsure if your take is accurate. You may not have heard about serious illnesses or deaths, but I would just about guarantee that just about every person in here did in know someone who died or had a rough time with covid.
'Had a rough time with covid' can mean many things to different people, so that's not really a useful metric in my opinion.

My point remains: people generally act in their own self interests. If they see in their own lived experience that there is a real chance they'll get seriously ill or worse, they will take steps to avoid that and abstain from fighting against stringent government regulations or significant changes in the way society operates.

We all know a huge proportion of the U.S. population rebelled against lockdowns/closures/mandates, especially after the first several weeks and months. I don't believe that we'd have seen the opposition to said lockdowns/closures/mandates if just about every person knew someone who died. People aren't that careless, especially when it comes to their own well being.
 

The device requires only one or two breaths and provides results in less than a minute.​
The same group of researchers that developed the device recently published a new study in Nature Communications about an air monitor to detect airborne SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—within about five minutes in hospitals, schools, and other public places.​
Cool. Wish this was an at-home test though.
 

The device requires only one or two breaths and provides results in less than a minute.​
The same group of researchers that developed the device recently published a new study in Nature Communications about an air monitor to detect airborne SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—within about five minutes in hospitals, schools, and other public places.​
Cool. Wish this was an at-home test though.
You can't wait 15 minutes for results from an at home test?
 

The device requires only one or two breaths and provides results in less than a minute.​
The same group of researchers that developed the device recently published a new study in Nature Communications about an air monitor to detect airborne SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—within about five minutes in hospitals, schools, and other public places.​
Cool. Wish this was an at-home test though.
You can't wait 15 minutes for results from an at home test?

A breath test would be much easier to do with kids and is certainly much less invasive than nasal swabs. And this is apparently much more accurate.
 
So when are we getting the vaccine recommendations and rollout for the fall?
From all early indications I have seen to date seem to point to boosters only for immunocompromised and elderly. ACIP is meeting today, so I guess we shall see soon.

This has always been so odd to me. You can't walk into a pharmacy or doctor's office in the fall without being bombarded with offers of the flu vaccine, but with COVID, it's been "NOPE SORRY YOU CANT HAVE THIS RIGHT NOW".
 
This has always been so odd to me. You can't walk into a pharmacy or doctor's office in the fall without being bombarded with offers of the flu vaccine, but with COVID, it's been "NOPE SORRY YOU CANT HAVE THIS RIGHT NOW".

:confused: I still see plenty of advertising for it. https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/pfizer-uses-star-power-emphasize-risk-factors-and-covid-19

Right, but every time a new booster is rolled out, for the first several months it's immunocomptomised and elderly only, even though for the past few, there has been no supply/demand reason for it.
 
So when are we getting the vaccine recommendations and rollout for the fall?
Actually reading this evening that they are not yet officially approved, but they are expecting it this month. Today's meeting was about monoclonal antibodies and vaccines for RSV.


Also according to this piece:
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster.
 
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster
Sitting here on day 5 of covid, still feeling like crap, expelling huge amounts of green goo from my sinuses and lungs, I know I'll be getting one...
 
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster
Sitting here on day 5 of covid, still feeling like crap, expelling huge amounts of green goo from my sinuses and lungs, I know I'll be getting one...

Bummer, Z.

There is a decent chance I get to experience my first go-around. Today my office-mate felt a bit off, and went home at noon. He texted me later that he had a fever of 100 and that he had tested positive. We sit about 8 feet apart, and were both in the office the last 3 days.

He thinks he and his family caught it during the 2-hour rain delay at the O's game last Friday, which would mean a 6 day incubation, which seems on the long side. I thought time from exposure to symptoms was more like 3 days. I could be wrong. Or maybe his wife caught it at the game, then a few days later infected him.
 
So when are we getting the vaccine recommendations and rollout for the fall?
Actually reading this evening that they are not yet officially approved, but they are expecting it this month. Today's meeting was about monoclonal antibodies and vaccines for RSV.


Also according to this piece:
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster.
YLE had a Facebook story (video) that she doesn't know for sure but suspects that the delay for Covid vaccine announcement may be so that they can get Novavax included as well, and do all at one time.
 
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster
Sitting here on day 5 of covid, still feeling like crap, expelling huge amounts of green goo from my sinuses and lungs, I know I'll be getting one...

Bummer, Z.

There is a decent chance I get to experience my first go-around. Today my office-mate felt a bit off, and went home at noon. He texted me later that he had a fever of 100 and that he had tested positive. We sit about 8 feet apart, and were both in the office the last 3 days.

He thinks he and his family caught it during the 2-hour rain delay at the O's game last Friday, which would mean a 6 day incubation, which seems on the long side. I thought time from exposure to symptoms was more like 3 days. I could be wrong. Or maybe his wife caught it at the game, then a few days later infected him.

Average incubation time is 2.6 days for Omicron. It's possible they got it 6 days previous, but that puts them on the far end of the probability bell curve
 
So when are we getting the vaccine recommendations and rollout for the fall?
Actually reading this evening that they are not yet officially approved, but they are expecting it this month. Today's meeting was about monoclonal antibodies and vaccines for RSV.


Also according to this piece:
However, with only 17% of the U.S. population having received a fall 2022 booster shot that was updated for the Omicron variant, according to the CDC, it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to adopt the latest booster.

Taking their time it seems -- schools start opening in some places as early as next week (maybe even this week?).

Where are Moderna and Novavax?
 
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