opensourcebeer
Footballguy
Why would anyone disagree with this?
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
YLE's fall vaccine post (includes, flu, Covid and new RSV vax info):
TL;DR Here's the Covid bit:
COVID-19 vaccine
TL;DR Here's the Covid bit:
COVID-19 vaccine
What: The fall Covid-19 vaccine has an updated formula targeting XBB.1.5, which should be a good match to the currently circulating Omicron subvariant. Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax all plan to have boosters on the market this fall.
Who: We don’t know yet but should know in mid-to-late September. Why the delay? The CDC only determines who is eligible after the FDA fully approves the vaccine. The FDA can only fully approve it once the pharma companies submit data showing the vaccines are safe after manufacturing. We are waiting for this process to play out.
Last year, though, eligibility was dependent on the manufacturer, and it will likely be the same this year:
When: Guidance will be provided by the CDC soon. (Hopefully, they will guide recently infected people, too.) For protection against severe disease, you can get the vaccine when it becomes available because this kind of protection lasts longer. For protection against infection, though, keep in mind that protection wanes in a few months, so it’s best to get vaccinated right before a wave. Of course, this can be challenging to time.
More info: To understand why we need an updated vaccine and what clinical trials found, go to this previous YLE post.
Doug B
Footballguy
Is this done with flu vaccines every year? If so, it must be an expedited process. Kinda think that the COVID vaccines have proven their safety enough that new-variant boosters can kind of be waved through ... but I guess not yet.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
according to this, looks like yes
FDA is working on developing new technologies for making flu vaccines
Flu viruses constantly evolve. The flu vaccine you get is the year-round work of highly skilled microbiologists, epidemiologists, physicians and other experts.
In late February/early March — well before the new flu season begins — an FDA advisory committee reviews data about which flu viruses have caused disease in the past year, how the viruses are changing, and disease trends so they can recommend the flu virus strains to include in the influenza vaccines for the U.S. in the upcoming flu season.
Once the strains are selected, vaccine producers begin the manufacturing process to include the newly selected flu strains in their FDA-approved vaccines. The different flu virus strains are combined to formulate the vaccine into standard dosages. The vaccine is then filled into vials, syringes and, for the nasal vaccine, sprayers.
Both egg-based and non-egg-based manufacturing methods for FDA-approved flu vaccines require high-tech processes and manufacturing facilities that have been inspected by the FDA. Vaccine manufacturers must submit applications to the FDA that include the new flu strains in their FDA-approved vaccines and updated prescribing information.
In its own laboratories, the FDA also produces materials that are critical for making the vaccine. These include generating candidate vaccine virus strains suitable for further vaccine manufacture and producing the critical potency reagents, which are materials needed to test the vaccines for potency and identity (to ensure standardization) before the FDA approves the new formulation of the approved seasonal influenza vaccines for U.S. distribution.
The FDA is also responsible for ensuring that released lots of influenza vaccines meet appropriate standards. Each vaccine undergoes quality control tests, including testing for sterility. Manufacturers submit the results of their testing, along with sample vials from each lot to the FDA for “lot release.”
The FDA typically begins releasing lots of flu vaccines in late summer. Lot release can continue into early fall. Once lots are released, manufacturers distribute the vaccine throughout the U.S. for use by the public.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Another variant of interest has entered the chat. BA.2.86
www.cbsnews.com
Just from what I gleaned combing through some evo bio Twitter threads on it, there are several different mutations that make it stand out, but nothing in early reporting saying it will be definitively worse, but not 'better' either. But it's also too early to tell a whole lot. That being said, this stood out to me from the above piece:
This is the reason it didn't seem wise to me to get into the "chasing variants" vaccine strategy if the mRNA updates are going to take this long to roll out. By the time they get here, we are just hoping another sub-family of variants are not already taking over.
CDC tracking new COVID variant BA.2.86 after highly mutated strain reported in Michigan
Cases of the new COVID variant BA.2.86 have been spotted in Michigan, Denmark and Israel.
www.cbsnews.com
Just from what I gleaned combing through some evo bio Twitter threads on it, there are several different mutations that make it stand out, but nothing in early reporting saying it will be definitively worse, but not 'better' either. But it's also too early to tell a whole lot. That being said, this stood out to me from the above piece:
"Deep mutational scanning indicates BA.2.86 variant will have equal or greater escape than XBB.1.5 from antibodies elicited by pre-Omicron and first-generation Omicron variants,"
....
The strain's dozens of genetic changes — an evolutionary jump on par with the emergence of the original Omicron variant in 2021 — has raised eyebrows among virologists as cases have started to crop up around the world. Its mutations include some changes at key parts of the virus that could help it better dodge the body's immunity from prior infections or vaccination.
...
Those could face a setback if BA.2.86 is able to spread more widely. Bloom said he thinks the strain's changes are enough to risk making the XBB-targeted vaccines a "fairly poor match" to BA.2.86.
The upcoming fall boosters are designed for the XBB variant family (of which the other hot topic variant EG5 is part of). This variant is a good bit different from that variant arm apparently. This is the reason it didn't seem wise to me to get into the "chasing variants" vaccine strategy if the mRNA updates are going to take this long to roll out. By the time they get here, we are just hoping another sub-family of variants are not already taking over.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
YLE take on BA.2.86
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
A new variant: BA.2.86
We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
tldr??YLE take on BA.2.86
A new variant: BA.2.86
We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
From this and some reading on Covid Twitter, it warrants watching. The fact that the cases all cropped up in different countries around the same time, but were not connected (by say, a common international flight), means it's probably already on it's way to spreading, they just didn't have it sequenced yet. What is notable is the number of mutations that are different from the current dominant strains. Not saying this is going to be an Omicron-level event, and we are surely in a different place now than we were then, but this is similar to what happened then when Omicron hit the scene. But also, we aren't testing, we aren't masking, we are just letting it rip, so we have that going for us too. Basically we can watch the few wastewater monitors for regional info, and watch hospitalizations for somewhat of a picture, but even that is not getting reported like it used to. We are pretty much flying mostly blind, IMO.tldr??YLE take on BA.2.86
A new variant: BA.2.86
We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
pretty cool dashboard here that kind of aggregates all the best available data sources: https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...VID-19MetricsDashboard/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Scoresman
Footballguy
From this and some reading on Covid Twitter, it warrants watching. The fact that the cases all cropped up in different countries around the same time, but were not connected (by say, a common international flight), means it's probably already on it's way to spreading, they just didn't have it sequenced yet. What is notable is the number of mutations that are different from the current dominant strains. Not saying this is going to be an Omicron-level event, and we are surely in a different place now than we were then, but this is similar to what happened then when Omicron hit the scene. But also, we aren't testing, we aren't masking, we are just letting it rip, so we have that going for us too. Basically we can watch the few wastewater monitors for regional info, and watch hospitalizations for somewhat of a picture, but even that is not getting reported like it used to. We are pretty much flying mostly blind, IMO.tldr??YLE take on BA.2.86
A new variant: BA.2.86
We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
Wastewater data seems to have hit its peak at least for now and at least what is being reported.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Check out that dashboard I just posted. It defaults to USA, but you can click the drop down in upper right corner to change the metrics to just a state. FL and NY showing what may be a peak. I didn't check them all but the 7 or 8 others I looked at are still on the way up.
Doug B
Footballguy
YLE take on BA.2.86
A new variant: BA.2.86
We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
Maybe I'm cherry-picking ... and, yeah, it's early ... but one takeaway from Dr. Jetelina's article that's kind of a low-key positive:
Community-level transmission. 6 cases are without travel history (and 1 U.S. case was a traveler from Japan). There is vast geographical distribution of the cases identified (Israel, the U.S., Denmark, and the U.K.). And we are seeing BA.2.86 in country-level wastewater samples (without corresponding reported cases). All of these point to undetected community transmission—it’s spreading.
IOW ... so far, BA.2.86 is spreading without increasing overall societal infirmity (else more cases would make it into the medical system and get reported). I still think rises in cases due to variants can be withstood if lots and lots of those cases are sub-clinical.
Doug B
Footballguy
As of August 2, per Biobot, wastewater levels were on a fairly steep rise. Not Omicron-steep, but in line with how Delta's wastewater numbers looked as it was rising in August 2021.
As of that same date, the XBB family of variants still accounted for about 91% of U.S. wastewater detections. The BA.2 family (presumably including the new BA.2.86) was still at less than half of 1% ... so the new variant has not been driving the wastewater-levels rise in the U.S.
EDIT: It's a shame that data is three weeks old, though.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
No, all of this is within the last week or so. As of Sunday IIRC, there were only like 7 confirmed cases of BA286. The "warning" from scientists is that they all cropped up at the same time, and when they were sequenced the number of different mutations (from currently dominant strains EG5, etc) were noteworthy. If I did so, I didn't mean to imply that this BA variant was driving the uptick. Only that it bears monitoring.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
So we should be ready for a new variant every August basically.
Will the current vaccine and/or past infections help here or minimally?
Doug B
Footballguy
It’s not a new disease starting from jump like in 2020. Current vaccines and our past infections will help plenty.
Doug B
Footballguy
A wave every August, yes. The timing of the identification of another variant is coincidental, though.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
This post has a little more info (and some mappings if you're into that sort of thing) on the mutations of BA.2.86
erictopol.substack.com
he also hammers home the long-argued point that "Chasing Variants Doesn’t Work Well"
A Quick Update on the BA.2.86 Variant
Facts, data and analytics about biomedical matters
erictopol.substack.com
The impact of these striking differences will be immune escape—that is more difficult for our immune response to recognize this variant even with prior vaccinations, boosters, and infections—because it is new and different. It’s still SARS-CoV-2 so we have build some immunity, especially via our cellular T-cell system that is less sensitive to variants. But the rapid ability to neutralize the virus depends on antibodies, and the levels of those neutralizing antibodies are bound to be much lower against BA.2.86 than versions of the virus we have previously been espied to or immunized against. Also to note, the burden of new mutations for BA.2.86 is not confined to the spike and is seen broadly across other components of the virus.
The XBB.1.5 update booster would have been quite useful because it matches up pretty well to EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 (gaining in the US) with only a few mutations that differ, but it isn’t likely to be as helpful against BA.2.86. If BA.2.86 takes off, it will be a real test of how good our T-cell response can rev up to meet the challenge.
he also hammers home the long-argued point that "Chasing Variants Doesn’t Work Well"
The strategy of picking a spike variant for the mRNA booster at one point in time and making that at scale, going through regulatory approval, and then for it to be given 3 or more months later is far from optimal, as the BA.2.86 story reinforces.
Doug B
Footballguy
My favorite takeaway from this piece comes right after the part you quoted -- it's good to see someone in the field so bullish on both the nasal vaccines and the prospect of a variant-proof (aka 'pan-sarbecovirus') vaccine:
We desperately need to pursue a variant-proof vaccine and there are over 50 candidate templates from broad neutralizing antibodies that academic labs have published over the last couple of years. Only a couple of candidates (one from CalTech and the other Walter Reed) have gone onto early (Phase 1) trials. Project NextGen, a $5 billion initiative by the US Department of Health and Human Service (HHS), is supposed to be funding development and clinical trials of better vaccines, which includes nasal and variant-proof. Initial allocations for over $1 billion were just announced, but it isn’t clear when we will see any real progress and whether a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine is a priority. The “dream vaccine” has been written about for nearly 3 years. It isn’t a dream. We can do this; BA.2.86’s appearance tells us once again why it’s so important. You’d think we’ve forgotten how quickly the very potent Covid vaccines were made and validated in the first 10 months of 2020.
Hear hear, Doctor Topol!
...
While I will be interested to see what happens with BA.2.86, I do think it's premature for some observers to be going from "It's got a ton of mutations!" to "It's an immediate public danger -- Omicron all over again!" so quickly. While it's not ideal to have to wait for BA.2.86-driven infirmity data, such infirmity data is what government-level response decisions need to be based upon.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
If you don't chase variants, then what does the vaccine look like annually?This post has a little more info (and some mappings if you're into that sort of thing) on the mutations of BA.2.86
A Quick Update on the BA.2.86 Variant
Facts, data and analytics about biomedical mattersThe impact of these striking differences will be immune escape—that is more difficult for our immune response to recognize this variant even with prior vaccinations, boosters, and infections—because it is new and different. It’s still SARS-CoV-2 so we have build some immunity, especially via our cellular T-cell system that is less sensitive to variants. But the rapid ability to neutralize the virus depends on antibodies, and the levels of those neutralizing antibodies are bound to be much lower against BA.2.86 than versions of the virus we have previously been espied to or immunized against. Also to note, the burden of new mutations for BA.2.86 is not confined to the spike and is seen broadly across other components of the virus.The XBB.1.5 update booster would have been quite useful because it matches up pretty well to EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 (gaining in the US) with only a few mutations that differ, but it isn’t likely to be as helpful against BA.2.86. If BA.2.86 takes off, it will be a real test of how good our T-cell response can rev up to meet the challenge.
he also hammers home the long-argued point that "Chasing Variants Doesn’t Work Well"
The strategy of picking a spike variant for the mRNA booster at one point in time and making that at scale, going through regulatory approval, and then for it to be given 3 or more months later is far from optimal, as the BA.2.86 story reinforces.
Scoresman
Footballguy
If this is already detected all over the world, wouldn't an Omicron event already have happened if it was going to? Omicron was so contagious, it swept through the entire population incredibly fast, and died just as fast, at least the first variant of it.
Doug B
Footballguy
I'm thinking of an "Omicron event" in terms of societal infirmity, as opposed to merely a high count of cases. If a variant spreads like wildfire, but doesn't much (or at all) increase symptomatic illness or hospitalizations ... then
The Commish
Footballguy
Vaccines, for now, will be tied closely to what the spike proteins look like, which is a little different than conventional vaccines for things like flu that incorporate the various proteins from the popular variations circulating at that time.If you don't chase variants, then what does the vaccine look like annually?This post has a little more info (and some mappings if you're into that sort of thing) on the mutations of BA.2.86
A Quick Update on the BA.2.86 Variant
Facts, data and analytics about biomedical mattersThe impact of these striking differences will be immune escape—that is more difficult for our immune response to recognize this variant even with prior vaccinations, boosters, and infections—because it is new and different. It’s still SARS-CoV-2 so we have build some immunity, especially via our cellular T-cell system that is less sensitive to variants. But the rapid ability to neutralize the virus depends on antibodies, and the levels of those neutralizing antibodies are bound to be much lower against BA.2.86 than versions of the virus we have previously been espied to or immunized against. Also to note, the burden of new mutations for BA.2.86 is not confined to the spike and is seen broadly across other components of the virus.The XBB.1.5 update booster would have been quite useful because it matches up pretty well to EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 (gaining in the US) with only a few mutations that differ, but it isn’t likely to be as helpful against BA.2.86. If BA.2.86 takes off, it will be a real test of how good our T-cell response can rev up to meet the challenge.
he also hammers home the long-argued point that "Chasing Variants Doesn’t Work Well"
The strategy of picking a spike variant for the mRNA booster at one point in time and making that at scale, going through regulatory approval, and then for it to be given 3 or more months later is far from optimal, as the BA.2.86 story reinforces.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
97% of the US Military has been vaccinated.
Records of military deaths, from any cause, are recorded to the Nth.
Care to guess the difference between the 2019 and the 2022 deaths/100,000 service members?
Trick question! It's exactly the same: 61/100,000 service members.
The metric peaked at 71/100,000 in 2020 and 69/100,000 in 2021 -- when 96 military deaths from COVID occurred (fully accounting for the slight increase in those years).
For reference... the deaths/100,000 in 2020 and 2021 among all people in the US aged 15-24 was 84/100,000 and 89/100,000.
Records of military deaths, from any cause, are recorded to the Nth.
Care to guess the difference between the 2019 and the 2022 deaths/100,000 service members?
Trick question! It's exactly the same: 61/100,000 service members.
The metric peaked at 71/100,000 in 2020 and 69/100,000 in 2021 -- when 96 military deaths from COVID occurred (fully accounting for the slight increase in those years).
For reference... the deaths/100,000 in 2020 and 2021 among all people in the US aged 15-24 was 84/100,000 and 89/100,000.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I hate to say, but I tested positive on Sunday night. I felt “off”—-almost like I was dehydrated—had a bad headache, body pains, my legs actually hurt, and got a random runny nose. I have several of those rapid home tests and tested myself—and sure enough—I tested positive and the line Indicating that I was positive was as dark as hell. I immediately quarantined myself to a wing of my house to avoid exposing my elderly mother and immediately put on all of the air purifiers. Yesterday and today were certainly worse than Sunday night as I’ve developed a pretty nasty cough. The nights tend to be rough as I have a hard time falling asleep with the constant cough. With that said—this is my first bout with covid and I knew that I’d eventually get it. Fingers crossed that I get over this soon. Good luck to everybody and your families.
nirad3
Footballguy
Yeah it's supposedly hitting hard up in LA. My sister tested positive Monday (lives in LA) and I hung out with her Sunday afternoon. I'm feeling fine.
Hope you feel better soon.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Thanks fam. I’m thinking I probably got exposed to it in LA as well. I had to run up there on Friday for work and by Sunday night—I wasn’t feeling right. One of my co-workers goes to school at Cal State Fullerton—and she was saying that a bunch of students and faculty were missing time due to illness/covid. It’s definitely spiking. I‘d think that if you still feel fine by the end of the day today—that you probably dodged a bullet from getting it from your sister. Fingers crossed for you!!
The Commish
Footballguy
Can't tell if this is serious and I have no idea what you've said previously in this thread. If this IS serious, you asked and answered your own question in the very same post with a resounding "yes".
Doug B
Footballguy
This is dependent on your individual situation.
For instance, if I came down with respiratory symptoms now ... I would avoid my parents and my in-laws until I had tested negative for COVID enough times to nail down that "it's not COVID". In our social circle, and over the past year or so, it's been common for people to get symptoms, take a test ASAP ... then test negative once, test negative twice, and only then come up positive on a third or fourth test. These latter variants of COVID don't seem to get caught on home antigen tests until symptoms have lasted a few days.
But if you work from home, don't visit anyone elderly, live with others who don't really sweat getting COVID ... yeah, you can make "don't test" work.
Penguin
Footballguy
Avoided this Sh1t for 3 1/2 years, haven't had so much as a cold in 5 years. It finally got me last Sunday.
Kicked my azz for a day, I just stayed in bed for like 24 hours drinking water. Woke up Monday and felt a heck of a lot better. Still really congested and have some body aches but I'm all good so far. Diminished sense of smell for sure but not completely gone.
Kicked my azz for a day, I just stayed in bed for like 24 hours drinking water. Woke up Monday and felt a heck of a lot better. Still really congested and have some body aches but I'm all good so far. Diminished sense of smell for sure but not completely gone.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Reading a lot that swabbing your throat in addition to your nostrils can make the tests more accurate. It makes sense because the new variants incubate early on in the throat and don’t move on to the nasal passages for a few days later, hence the delay in test positivity.
I believe the UK is officially advising this. We aren’t over here for obvious reasons at least not yet, but if/when I feel symptoms I’ll probably be doing this.
You just have to be careful when you throat swab. You can’t have had any food or drink recently. Coffee and acidic juices for example, can give completely invalid results.
Doug B
Footballguy
Not with the same swab, right?
Doug B
Footballguy
First thing in the morning sounds like the best time, then. Or maybe right before dinner.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Yeah I thought about how gross it is too.Not with the same swab, right?
The Commish
Footballguy
This was exactly me and my son....only Monday/Tuesday. I didn't have much body ache, but pretty bad headaches. I'm impressed by the amount of congestion on body can produce. I've felt fine (minus congestion which is just a PITA) since Wed, but it sucks not to be able to taste or smell. We were the last ones standing in our house....and then there were none.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
So are we in a full blown wave?
nirad3
Footballguy
Same. My sister had it last week and I was around her on Sunday. I had/have absolutely no symptoms so didn't even think of it.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yes, most everything.
Not sure about your last question, nor do I believe the premise is accurate. Something to do with this?
Scoresman
Footballguy
We have been since July. People may not be testing anymore to keep accurate case count, but everybody poops, and the wastewater data does not lie.
Anecdotally, I feel like the July wave had or was about to peak, right as kids went back to school. Now that the little germ factories are back to school, I feel like everything is on the way back up.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's been the same thing every year. We always see a large wave around this time, usually focused in the southeast. I'm not sure if that's really about people moving inside during the hot months or what, but I imagine this just going to be "covid season" for large swaths of the country for the time being. The important thing is that we can have a big wave featuring a new variant and nobody cares and things just keep humming along.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Having kids in school is way more important than worry about covid-19. It's time to realign priorities back to surface-level reality.
Hawks64
Footballguy
I have it and the rapid at-home test was positive.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I got Covid last week and the rapid tests tested positive
Scoresman
Footballguy
The at home tests are a bit less sensitive to the new variants but still can detect it. The difference is that it may take 2-3 days before it shows up positive. Keep testing.
If you have spare tests, you can also try a throat and nasal swab. Swab the back of your throat a few times before doing the nasal swab (gross, I know). Just make sure it's been a while since you had anything to eat or drink before you do this.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I wasn't suggesting otherwise.
- Status
