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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

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Found Angel Soft at the local store.  I thought of this;

When I found Toilet Paper
I found somebody who cares
When I found Toilet Paper
Found my most intimate prayer
When I found Toilet Paper
I found what every heart dreams of
When I found Toilet Paper
I found love

 
Politician Spock said:
Again, confirmed death, confirmed critical and confirmed recovered are all sub categories of confirmed cases. If a case is not confirmed, then neither is that death.

Up until a week or so ago, people complaining of covid were given a flu test. If that was negative, they were presumed to be positive for covid and treated as such.

You are suggesting that once tests became available they were taking people off their ventilator that they need to breath in order to survive in order to shove a test up their nose to the back of their throat while they cant breath in order to  take them from a presumed case to a confirmed case.

Or that they are post mortum testing. 

The post mortum I could believe if you had evidence. But the whole testing of existing patients being treated sounds ridiculous to me even if you did have evidence. And you have provided no evidence of either.

The most reasonable explanation is that healthcare workers were treating presumed cases. When they die and dont show up in official stats, they don't know why. Why would they? It's a always been a covid case to them for the past few weeks. The fact that tests finally became available didnt change that for them.
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The people that were presumed positive and not given a test were people where the course of treatment wouldn't have changed. I cant find a single example of somebody put on a ventilator at a hospital that didnt get tested. This is counter-intuitive. They would want to know for protocol purposes in the hospital. I think this only happened early on when they died quickly and in those cases they did post mortem testing. 

The first death in Kansas was post mortem tested.

11 people that died at Life care were tested via post mortem.

One of the first if not the first death in my state was identified post mortem.

They were never just cast aside and not counted. There is no evidence of that other than an unnamed source about an unnamed hospital in a buzzfeed article. 

Saying that because there are uncomfirmed cases there must be unconfirmed deaths (at least statistically significant amounts since I am sure some test results can get lost, etc) makes no sense and are completely unrelated to each other. 

 
Being stuck in the house...with internet, TV, games, lots of food, alcohol, etc...and all of it getting "meh" already, makes me think I wouldn't like being locked up in jail.

 
facook said:
GroveDiesel said:
Seems like churches that don’t like to follow what the Bible actually says. 
 

Titus 3:1: ““Remind the believers to submit to the government and its officers. They should be obedient, always ready to do what is good.”
 

My church has already decided that we are not meeting on Easter, no matter what President Trump decides. It just isn’t worth the risk to our members and our community. There’s a difference between having faith and taking unnecessary risks to do...actually I’m not sure what they’re trying to do exactly.
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Our church is in the same position as yours.  I'm curious, how long do you think the leaders of your church would be willing to follow the government on this, and ignore Hebrews 10:25 (Do not neglect meeting together)?  I said about 100 pages ago in this thread that there will be churches that would start meeting eventually, regardless of what government says.  I think if our governor said, "Don't meet again till June 1" our leaders would abide.  If she said, "Don't meet again until I say you can" our leaders will start to chafe at that and eventually rebel - depending on how cv spreads in the near future.  Just curious your thoughts.
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We’re using Zoom every day. Had a meeting of 300+ before online services on Sunday. I’ve had a half dozen meetings with different teams & small groups (typically 5-15.) We’re not neglecting meeting together.

:)

Our first online church (3/15) we had about 100 East Coast staff & interns + another 100 volunteers (full worship band, tv crew, audio, lighting, et al.) Now we have a bunch of folks who are Covid-19 positive, including two pastors.

The 3/22 online service was the worship pastor playing his piano alone at home & the lead pastors preaching in front of 30-40 pictures of friends & members.

:lmao:

We’ll be online until further notices. No one knows how long that will be.

ASIDE - it’s a very young congregation & no one who is sick requires hospitalization (yet.)

 
Sneegor said:
Word is they were told if they didn't take this virus seriously that college football season was going to be canceled.
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People here in some areas are acting like this is summer break.  In our neighborhood everyone seems to be taking this pretty seriously but have friends who are having the neighborhood kids ringing the doorbells trying to get their kids to come out and play in the neighborhood every day.

As someone who makes his living off it, I'm pretty concerned about college football.  The schools aren't wanting to address it.  Nobody has woken up yet to understand that many NCAA schools take in greater revenue from per seat "donations" than the face value of the tickets.  Their overhead is now so high that they won't be able to afford to refund that "donation" most likely even though they are directly tied to the seats you buy.  If the season doesn't happen, all hell is going to break lose if/when these institutions try to scoop that money.

 
JAA said:
Ive been following the math, however I dont think we hit that number.  I think the fatality rate is currently over estimated.  I had it at .5, im wondering if it needs to be at .1.
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At .5 that would be 20,000 using shader's methodology.

I'm going to hope like heck you're right and that's keeping in mind that 20K deaths is staggering.

 
tamales said:
Yeah all the doomsday scenarios are facts but positive outlooks are trolling.
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I'm seeing some posters are talking about "optimism" and "positive outlooks" and what's wrong with that?

Really, in this thread, it's not harmful I don't think. Probably 4/5 of the posters in here are following info closely and critically, and know what's up. Optimism/positivity, then, can be evaluated on case-by-case basis and responded to accordingly.

Positive stories about generosity? Bravery in the face of hard circumstances? Good news about supplies or treatments or surge capacity? All welcome and worthwhile to share.

Optimism/positivity as a fig leaf for denialism? That's a sliding scale, admittedly. But a certain level of optimism can give cover to those who don't want to countenance the case-count information as best as we currently know it. And sometimes, even denialism is understandable on an individual level as a means of self-comfort.

I've seen/heard a lot of people who think it's all overblown, but are still staying home and taking care when leaving the house all the same. They latch on to optimism/positivity as a strategy to keep their internal worldview intact, but externally they know what needs to be done -- and then do it.

What's more insidious is optimism/positivity covering denialism in service of societal selfishness (as opposed to individual selfishness, although the concepts are related). This kind of denialism places a quick return to normality well ahead of the human cost (not necessarily deaths). Societal selfishness is often traced back ultimately to money, but there can be other motivations as well (i.e. megachurches that continue to congregate, Spring Breakers). 

 
Chemical X said:
Found Angel Soft at the local store.  I thought of this;

When I found Toilet Paper
I found somebody who cares
When I found Toilet Paper
Found my most intimate prayer
When I found Toilet Paper
I found what every heart dreams of
When I found Toilet Paper
I found love
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Angel Soft fans here with supply. :thumbup:

...with Stop & Shop back up. :(

 
JAA said:
Ive been following the math, however I dont think we hit that number.  I think the fatality rate is currently over estimated.  I had it at .5, im wondering if it needs to be at .1.
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Is that a .1??

1 percent is the absolute lowest you should be at.  Even South Korea, a model for testing and efficiency, has slowly drifted above 1 percent.  .5 is wildly optimistic. 

Building a model around a .1 fatality rate is building a model around the flu, not the coronavirus.

 
Chemical X said:
Found Angel Soft at the local store.  I thought of this;

When I found Toilet Paper
I found somebody who cares
When I found Toilet Paper
Found my most intimate prayer
When I found Toilet Paper
I found what every heart dreams of
When I found Toilet Paper
I found love
Click to expand...
I had two 24 packs of Cottonelle and 12 36 oz Soft Soap bottles arrive via Amazon in the last couple of days. :hoarder:

 
Pipes said:
Just trying to show that many agree with me.  I apologize for showing some optimism is such trying times.  You're right.  Enjoy your discussion on how many people are going to die. Time to check out of this ridiculous thread.
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I don't think this thread is ridiculous. Far from it. It has been helpful to me in preparing both practically and mentally for this most surreal of times.

The core subject matter of this thread is quite difficult, complex and down right scary. Some of the projections & trends that have been tracked here AND turned out to be accurate cause me great concern for what awaits us tomorrow and further. IMO the folks who have posted information/facts/data/links regarding this are NOT pushing some fear mongering line. They really want us to face the actual situation (no matter how undesirable and scary) and act in the best possible way. I'd rather see the hard painful reality instead of some sugar coated attempt to inject optimism. Hoping that things will not be as bad as they project to be is fine. But hope is not a strategy I want to use to deal with this. Facing it head-on as best as I can is.

To folks like @shader, @Politician Spock, @moleculo, @icon and others ... Please continue contributing to this thread!

 
glock said:
Especially when you lay this on top of the flu season...
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Exactly. I should add these numbers are NY State, not just NYC.

Apologies for the personal modeling. I'm a numbers guy and I am just trying to extrapolate what we are up against here in the state I love. These are my family, friends and co-workers, not just some numbers. Sorry though I can understand how callous it may be coming across.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Exactly. I should add these numbers are NY State, not just NYC.

Apologies for the personal modeling. I'm a numbers guy and I am just trying to extrapolate what we are up against here in the state I love. These are my family, friends and co-workers, not just some numbers. Sorry though I can understand how callous it may be coming across.
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Any numbers on The Island handy?? Out in Huntington Township...

 
cap'n grunge said:
I had two 24 packs of Cottonelle and 12 36 oz Soft Soap bottles arrive via Amazon in the last couple of days. :hoarder:
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For those that want to keep their kids busy outside, a bottle of sanitizer and rolls of toilet paper replacing lemonade. Give them one of those claw grabbers to handle the money & the TP.

 
Jagov said:
I don't think this thread is ridiculous. Far from it. It has been helpful to me in preparing both practically and mentally for this most surreal of times.

The core subject matter of this thread is quite difficult, complex and down right scary. Some of the projections & trends that have been tracked here AND turned out to be accurate cause me great concern for what awaits us tomorrow and further. IMO the folks who have posted information/facts/data/links regarding this are NOT pushing some fear mongering line. They really want us to face the actual situation (no matter how undesirable and scary) and act in the best possible way. I'd rather see the hard painful reality instead of some sugar coated attempt to inject optimism. Hoping that things will not be as bad as they project to be is fine. But hope is not a strategy I want to use to deal with this. Facing it head-on as best as I can is.

To folks like @shader, @Politician Spock, @moleculo, @icon and others ... Please continue contributing to this thread!
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Thanks I appreciate it.  There's a lot of great info here.  Not sure what's happened this afternoon.  I get the need for optimism, but this isn't an optimistic time.  Take a look around, the entire world is under quarantine.  That's not being done because a mildly stronger flu strain is out there.  It's because there's a freaking deadly disease out there that people need to take seriously.

For the most part people are, but I'm sensing that people are getting lax, and I'll fight against that in person and on this thread.  Today is no time for that.

 
glock said:
Any numbers on The Island handy?? Out in Huntington Township...
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Suffolk County reported the following confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 through 2:30 p.m. on 3/26/2020

2735  confirmed cases  (up 475 from the 2,260 cases that were reported at 2:30 p.m. on March 25)

287 patients are hospitalized (up 81 from March 25), 103 of those are in the intensive care unit (up 36  from March 25)

22 deaths (up 2 from March 22) Of the 22 deaths, 7 were related to a local senior community

A breakdown of cases by township reported through 2:30 p.m. on 3/26/2020 - Note: this breakdown comprises the information from 2,351 records available to Suffolk County at this time. 

Islip -- 548

Huntington -- 504

Brookhaven -- 398

Babylon -- 367

Smithtown -- 140

Southold -- 123

Southampton --59

Riverhead --45

East Hampton -- 18

Shelter Island -- 1

Township not known -- 148

Source

I'm in Brookhaven. East Setauket.

 
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Went through the front door of my apartment for the first time in 14 days. Hit 3 stores for supplies. Based on what I saw I can say with reasonable certainty that we're all screwed. No chance this thing slows down any time soon. Half the people out there acting like it's just a normal summer day off from work. Store checker taking bites of a chocolate bar between guests. Why am I sheltering indoors and social distancing at the store if people are still walking around in groups while shoveling popcorn into their mouths like they're kids at the carnival? I would say chances I get the virus based on that trip alone is >10%. Out of Woodford at TJ's to boot.

 
I read an article that the cruise ship was a decent sample to use for estimating death rate, since we knew the exact number who had it, everyone. 

You could factor down because more seniors were onboard, but factor up because everyone on-board was at least healthy enough to travel. 

I think it was around 1%. 

Very small sample size, but all the data is imperfect at this point. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I am curious why you have it that low.  
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The US is trending at 4% right now.  I think its reasonable to assume the current % is a ceiling.  This is based on the assumption that there are not currently (maybe in the past) more deaths attributed to CV than the numbers represent.  I also assume that testing and reported cases is completely out of whack.  The assumption is that there are a ton of unreported cases, which eventually recover, then the numbers represent.

Data basis - if you look at the recovery rate, last I saw it was like 30%.  That number is saying that 70% of all serious cases result in death.  I don't believe that number passes the sniff test.

Anecdotally, we only read about people who want to get tested, but cant.  We also read about the accuracy of some testing (some accuracy at only 70%).  If we assume those people are actually infected, we have more recoveries.

In conclusion, if we assume there are a tremendous more amount of people getting infected, but also recovering, our 4% needs to go down.  I had originally though .5 based on the first studies I read, but my current opinion is that there are way to many people recovering that aren't in the data.  I think its reasonable that we see .1% based on an assumption that testing is tremendously flawed.

 
Doug B said:
Meanwhile ... our local school district put out a video for families yesterday morning telling students that they can't wait to see everyone back at school April 14th.

Ain't gonna happen.
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Really sucks.  My wife and I both work and its fing impossible to work from home and home school at the same time.  Stupid coronavirus.  

 
Mr. Ham said:
There needs to be enforcement. This is a train wreck waiting to happen.
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I don't need disagree with the premise but would ask enforcement by whom?

(I know what your response will (likely) be but can tell you it won't be just that easy. It's going to come down to accountability/personal responsibility at the end of the day)

 
The Duff Man said:
I read an article that the cruise ship was a decent sample to use for estimating death rate, since we knew the exact number who had it, everyone. 

You could factor down because more seniors were onboard, but factor up because everyone on-board was at least healthy enough to travel. 

I think it was around 1%. 

Very small sample size, but all the data is imperfect at this point. 
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I thought the same thing. The only issue is that I'm not confident that we ever got the true death rate from the cruise ship. Everyone went to their home countries and I kind of feel like they got mixed into the numbers with everyone else.  If you've seen an article where journalists have found the actual numbers for those passengers, I'd love to see it.

1% really is a best-case scenario

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
At .5 that would be 20,000 using shader's methodology.

I'm going to hope like heck you're right and that's keeping in mind that 20K deaths is staggering.
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Not to be gloomy here, but each season we have between 20k and 50k flu deaths.  If this season we doubled the flu death it wouldnt be that bad.

Now - imagine we didnt implement all these NPI's???

 
Yes, anecdotal, but this is why I think our hubris/ignorance will end up making the businesses and economy worse.    Both my wife and I are lucky enough to still have jobs on the essential list, but both are either run by or employed by people who don't take this seriously.   So probably the only thing stopping these businesses would be stricter lockdown and definitions of "essential" or people testing positive and bringing it to work.  

I work with people I know don't take it seriously - grumble about the new rules, say that they can't be told to stay inside, etc..   Today one called because they felt like crap (said it's a seasonal thing that happens every year, and it very well could be), and of course it's the one that was returning from vacation in FL.  During the conversation they said that "they kinda felt crappy all week, but today it was just too much to come to work"  :wall:

The owner of my wife's clinic seems weirdly hesitant to implement simple changes.  Most vet clinics went to picking up the animals from the car and bringing them back out.  Not there for some reason, still normal operation.  Just 2 days ago, they decided to change it so only 1 owner can be in the room at a time, but still letting people in the clinic and in the rooms, just trying to minimize a little congestion in the waiting room.   They also were suggested by the state to not do wellness type visits, which also didn't happen.  She sends me a text today that 1 employee is sick and had to stay home, and there are 2 others that "should be at home" - not sure what that last part means, but I will be talking to her soon.  

I just don't get it.  

 
tamales said:
KarmaPolice said:
Can we please stop with the "people are rooting for this" posts?   Nobody in here is hoping for people to die.  
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Seems like some are to me.
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We aren't rooting for people to die. We are rooting for and others you to open your ####### eyes and see that people are dying now, and many more will die if folks continue to think "this is no big deal, let's get the economy going again already"

 
JAA said:
The US is trending at 4% right now.  I think its reasonable to assume the current % is a ceiling.  This is based on the assumption that there are not currently (maybe in the past) more deaths attributed to CV than the numbers represent.  I also assume that testing and reported cases is completely out of whack.  The assumption is that there are a ton of unreported cases, which eventually recover, then the numbers represent.

Data basis - if you look at the recovery rate, last I saw it was like 30%.  That number is saying that 70% of all serious cases result in death.  I don't believe that number passes the sniff test.

Anecdotally, we only read about people who want to get tested, but cant.  We also read about the accuracy of some testing (some accuracy at only 70%).  If we assume those people are actually infected, we have more recoveries.

In conclusion, if we assume there are a tremendous more amount of people getting infected, but also recovering, our 4% needs to go down.  I had originally though .5 based on the first studies I read, but my current opinion is that there are way to many people recovering that aren't in the data.  I think its reasonable that we see .1% based on an assumption that testing is tremendously flawed.
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You really don't need to use the US numbers to calculate death rate. This isn't a different virus in this country.  We've been tracking and discussing the death rate for 2 months in here.  The WHO has numbers, epidemiologists have numbers, other countries do a GREAT job of testing.  The numbers are out there.  Any belief that .1% is the death rate is not reasonable, it's blind optimism.  I'd love for you to be right, but there's literally zero evidence for it. 

Again, .1% is flu numbers.  They wouldn't shut down the whole world for a virus with similar death rates to the flu.

 
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