*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

[McBokonon]

personally from my experience I'm seeing what Joe sees - the majority of people are taking it seriously and trying to do this social distancing thing right. But there's still plenty of idiots out there and the media's gonna focus on showing us those people instead, because covering folks who are good citizens and comply with the government orders is boring and doesn't attract viewers.

I don't think it's really possible to know how many are doing the right thing or not from our experiences. Everyone I know is generally staying home, but that's partly because we were ordered home from work, plus we tend to associate with people who share similar values. 

Everybody I interact with is now done virtually, so it seems like most are being responsible because that's all I see. However, because I AM staying home, there could be 20 people playing basketball up the street and I'd have no idea because I'm not out to see them. The court could also be empty- same thing. 

 

[Possum]

We don't have the political will, nor the central expertise necessary to execute this.  Few are willing to sacrifice now like people sacrificed in WWII.

I disagree 100% - there might be a significant portion of folks too caught up in stupid political divisions to be able to work together, but there are plenty of people out there on both sides willing to make the necessary sacrifices to beat this thing.

 

[jplvr]

This is some b.s. I'm dealing with at the moment. I said previously that the gf worked in medical sales. Specifically, she's in home health dealing with elderly patients needing treatment from home. Thankfully all the nursing homes shut them out weeks ago, and most hospitals have shut them out. Well, they also own space in the largest hospital in town where they are still allowed to still go in, and the company has not only told them to go there daily, but they doubled the workforce. Last night she tells me that she's still going into patients' rooms, telling me of one instance yesterday where she was called to an 88 year old patient's room who has dementia. No PPE. The woman grabs her, pulls her close, and starts asking her normal dementia induced questions like, "where am I? where are my loved ones?" She shouldn't be in that hospital or in that room. I told her to quit or at least not show up, but she's required by work to be there again, and she's there again today.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Good news out of New York - Hospitalization Rate Drops, PPE Need Filled

Thank you for sharing this. 

 

[Possum]

I don't think it's really possible to know how many are doing the right thing or not from our experiences. Everyone I know is generally staying home, but that's partly because we were ordered home from work, plus we tend to associate with people who share similar values. 

Everybody I interact with is now done virtually, so it seems like most are being responsible because that's all I see. However, because I AM staying home, there could be 20 people playing basketball up the street and I'd have no idea because I'm not out to see them. The court could also be empty- same thing. 

agreed, it's all anecdotal experience. All I'm saying is my experience out here in BFE Florida is that most people are trying to do the right thing, and I think it's important not to get too caught up and stressed out over media reports on the idiots who aren't.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Did you see where Peyton Manning crashed a UT online course?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/peyton-manning-crashes-university-of-tennessee-online-class-to-boost-students-morale/

Love this. 

 

[Chemical X]

Well, here's a good thing I suppose.  DHS has extended the deadline to obtain that hideous "Real ID" 1 year, until 10/1/2021.

If you recall, in order to fly domestically, you'd need a verified driver's license as ID, usually with a star added to it, upper right hand corner.  This would be for people that didn't have or want to bring a passport with them to the airport.  The passport still makes you not need a "Real ID", but there are people without passports that fly domestically.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Love this. 

I'm disappointed at the number of students in that class who obviously had no idea who that was.

 

[Golden Gopher]

More than 500 NYPD with the virus.  About 11% of the department has called in sick, per CNN.  Yikes.

 

[jamny]

Well, here's a good thing I suppose.  DHS has extended the deadline to obtain that hideous "Real ID" 1 year, until 10/1/2021.

If you recall, in order to fly domestically, you'd need a verified driver's license as ID, usually with a star added to it, upper right hand corner.  This would be for people that didn't have or want to bring a passport with them to the airport.  The passport still makes you not need a "Real ID", but there are people without passports that fly domestically.

Thanks for the heads up. We just got our new passports but would rather just bring along our license when travelling domestic.

 

[Doug B]

Is New Orleans because of Mardi Gras?  If this is somehow proven, then that's gonna leave a mark for re-opening sports and stuff.

Without contract tracing, there will never be real numbers about how many infections happened during Mardi Gras. But it's obvious that many did.

The hard thing in retrospect is that Carnival season started well before anything threatening the U.S. was considered -- smaller parades started the weekend of Feb 1st-2nd, larger ones two weeks later on the 15th-16th. IIRC, that was even before Italy gained a substantial number of cases. Mardi Gras Day itself was Tuesday, February 25th.

I can tell you, also, that on local news outlets -- print, online, and broadcast -- news about COVID-19 was completely ignored until the weekend after Mardi Gras (Feb 29th - March 1st). I believe that our local paper first put a coronavirus article on the front page on Thursday 2/27.

On Monday, March 2nd, the state's Lt. Governor went on the largest news-radio station in the state (WWL in New Orleans) and talked about how there were no cases in Louisiana, and that the state and especially New Orleans were open for business with no issue in sight to change that. New Orleans mayor Latoya Cantrell repeated this mantra the next day. The mayor and other local leaders held firm to the "no cases here!" right up until the first New Orleans resident was diagnosed on Tuesday, March 10th.

The French Quarter was still packed with tourists and locals as of the early evening of Friday, March 13th. That was the last time I had to drive my daughter home from her art school, and the last time I've had a chance to lay eyeballs on the Quarter. Louisiana schools were all ordered closed that afternoon.

 

[Koya]

Well, here's a good thing I suppose.  DHS has extended the deadline to obtain that hideous "Real ID" 1 year, until 10/1/2021.

If you recall, in order to fly domestically, you'd need a verified driver's license as ID, usually with a star added to it, upper right hand corner.  This would be for people that didn't have or want to bring a passport with them to the airport.  The passport still makes you not need a "Real ID", but there are people without passports that fly domestically.

Just received my Texas license (which covers this, though I have a passport - but prefer to travel with just my license as ID) just before this thing began to snowball - had to as my NY license expired early March... what a mess it would have been (personally, and inconvenience, nothing on par with what many are dealing with) if DMVs were closed and it expired, leaving me in a limbo as to how to get a new license in Texas with an expired out of state license.

 

[beer 30]

We don't have the political will, nor the central expertise necessary to execute this.  Few are willing to sacrifice now like people sacrificed in WWII.

There is a larger portion of the population that this applies today than back in 1940 but I still think the overwhelming majority of people in the US are willing to do what it takes to get the job done. Absent of leadership, people will get together and step up to the challenge. We see it everywhere, manufacturing retooling to lend a hand to make medical PPE or come up with a different approach to something we've been doing the same way for 50 years (ventilators). America is still great for the vast majority regardless of the doom & gloom we see in the headlines. Joe was correct, nobody reports on the plane landing.

I disagree 100% - there might be a significant portion of folks too caught up in stupid political divisions to be able to work together, but there are plenty of people out there on both sides willing to make the necessary sacrifices to beat this thing.

100% agree with this

 

[beer 30]

Without contract tracing, there will never be real numbers about how many infections happened during Mardi Gras. But it's obvious that many did.

Not Mardi Gras but Lauderdale. Interesting tweet, scary & cool all at once https://twitter.com/MikaelThalen/status/1243281598037913600?s=20

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

From the Washington Post:

Where coronavirus outbreak started in Washington state, officials see hope as cases appear to be leveling off

KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.

At EvergreenHealth Medical Center, two miles from the shuttered Lifecare nursing home where 35 patient deaths were linked to the virus, officials say their rate of new covid-19 cases has remained steady for two weeks, leveling off at a trickle. On some days, doctors here see just one new case and haven’t seen more than four in a single day since mid-March. Few need admission to the intensive care unit, which is now half full, two weeks after overflow necessitated transfers to nearby hospitals.

In the state that saw the nation’s first confirmed covid-19 case on Jan. 31, and the first recorded coronavirus-related death on Feb. 29, initial dire predictions of massive spikes have waned even as testing has increased rapidly. While the number of cases in Washington state grew by as much as 28 percent in one day on March 15 — it has since slowed significantly statewide, as have hospitalizations and deaths. 

State authorities said there have been 2,580 positive cases and 132 deaths, and as testing in Washington has ramped up, the percentage of positive cases has remained low — holding at about 7 percent.

“We know this is still a dire challenge, we know we have not turned the corner and we are not even close to the end of this battle, but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategy — to close schools, restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have slowed the rate of increase in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties,” Inslee said during a news conference Thursday, pointing to a graph showing Washington’s rate of new cases beginning to flatten while most other states trend upward.

 

[RUSF18]

I travel from Midwest Pa to Del and NJ and the only places I have seen it is at Costco where its forced and my own businesses. I will traveling up to NY today and I am sure that I will once again see people act as if little is going on. My point is that not that NOBODY is practicing SD, but the majority are not. 

If you think you’re seeing more than 50.1% of the average daily NY population out and about today, make sure your first post-lockdown appointment is with an optometrist. 

 

[RnR]

The numbers are still being severely skewed by lack of testing.

Case in point: I have a close family member exhibiting all of the symptoms.

Our medical offices have been instructed to ask 3 standardized questions, basically: "Have you left the country recently?" "Have you been on a cruise recently?" "Have you been in contact with anyone who has tested positive for the virus?"

If you don't answer "yes" to one of those 3, they can't send you to a testing station. Instead, they were tested for flu to rule it out and then sent them home with treatment as if it is bronchitis. Doc said to call back if it worsened and they'd re-examine the testing options because the standards may have changed by then.

So I have three takeaways: 1- People who should be tested aren't getting tested and that's not great for our data and models. 2- We are going to have a hard time containing spread if we're not telling people they have it. 3- Our data on total cases is definitely flawed, which may mean the death rate is actually well below the feared 1% threshold.

 

[KarmaPolice]

personally from my experience I'm seeing what Joe sees - the majority of people are taking it seriously and trying to do this social distancing thing right. But there's still plenty of idiots out there and the media's gonna focus on showing us those people instead, because covering folks who are good citizens and comply with the government orders is boring and doesn't attract viewers.

Not sure where you guys are, but maybe in places that are hit a little harder? 

Plus, IMO is more the type of people who display that attitude. It's not the person going against protocol for an extra grocery run or two (or a bagel), it's those few outliers that have a party, go to the park and play ball, go to church, then go to work.  

As SK showed us when a big % of their cases were traced to one person, this isnt a battle one with 80% on board even though those 80% are doing a great job. 

 

[shader]

From the Washington Post:

Where coronavirus outbreak started in Washington state, officials see hope as cases appear to be leveling off

KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.

At EvergreenHealth Medical Center, two miles from the shuttered Lifecare nursing home where 35 patient deaths were linked to the virus, officials say their rate of new covid-19 cases has remained steady for two weeks, leveling off at a trickle. On some days, doctors here see just one new case and haven’t seen more than four in a single day since mid-March. Few need admission to the intensive care unit, which is now half full, two weeks after overflow necessitated transfers to nearby hospitals.

In the state that saw the nation’s first confirmed covid-19 case on Jan. 31, and the first recorded coronavirus-related death on Feb. 29, initial dire predictions of massive spikes have waned even as testing has increased rapidly. While the number of cases in Washington state grew by as much as 28 percent in one day on March 15 — it has since slowed significantly statewide, as have hospitalizations and deaths. 

State authorities said there have been 2,580 positive cases and 132 deaths, and as testing in Washington has ramped up, the percentage of positive cases has remained low — holding at about 7 percent.

“We know this is still a dire challenge, we know we have not turned the corner and we are not even close to the end of this battle, but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategy — to close schools, restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have slowed the rate of increase in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties,” Inslee said during a news conference Thursday, pointing to a graph showing Washington’s rate of new cases beginning to flatten while most other states trend upward.

So I had been noticing that Washington's numbers weren't spiraling like other states.  That's really good news although right after that article was written, Washington released numbers of +627 and an increase from 2,580 to 3,207 in one day...

So hopefully that was a one-off and possibly a backlog of testing results that came through or something.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Scientists are starting to roll out new blood tests for the coronavirus, a key development that, unlike the current diagnostic tests, will help pinpoint people who are immune and reveal the full scope of the pandemic.

The “serological” tests — which rely on drawn blood, not a nasal or throat swab — can identify people who were infected and have already recovered from Covid-19, including those who were never diagnosed, either because they didn’t feel particularly sick or they couldn’t get an initial test. Scientists expect those individuals will be safe from another infection for at least some time — so the tests could signal who could be prioritized to return to work or serve as a frontline health worker.

The serological tests, which are being deployed in some countries in Asia and are starting to be used at one New York hospital, could also eventually help scientists answer outstanding epidemiological questions about the spread of the virus and might even steer an inoculation strategy should a vaccine make it to market.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=3442a73637-MR_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-3442a73637-152297566

THIS is encouraging!

 

[SoBeDad]

The Waffle House Index?

When Waffle House closes, you know it’s serious. Coronavirus shuts Key Largo location

>> The Waffle House Index is an unofficial metric typically used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the amount of assistance needed for disaster recovery.

On Wednesday, it entered Code Red according to the 24-hour restaurant chain.

Translation: If you weren’t taking social distancing seriously in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, you better start now.

As of Friday, the chain’s website lists 429 locations across the country that have closed. These include Florida locations in Key Largo, Cape Coral, Sarasota, Cocoa Beach, Kissimmee, three in Orlando, St. Petersburg, Seminole, Casselberry, Largo, Clearwater, two in Port Orange, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and two in Panama City Beach.

More than 1,500 locations remained open nationwide but most — including in Broward and Miami-Dade — were take-out only. <<

 

[urbanhack]

FWIW, literally just got news of this hitting closish to home.  Until now, I had not known anyone who has had COVID-19 hit them directly.

On our morning conference call, one of my colleagues let us know that her Mother had been infected and was in the hospital.  The good news is she is recovering... but it's sobering nonetheless.

As she said, we all need to be careful and vigilant, but catching this is not a death sentence - for most.  But, it is for some. And the threat of contagion is real.

Best of health to everyone out there.

Same here. Just found out a college buddy who is a golf pro in Indianapolis has it and I guess he's not doing well.   

 

[mcintyre1]

Teen Who Died of Covid-19 Was Denied Treatment Because He Didn't Have Health Insurance

 

[falguy]

I'm disappointed at the number of students in that class who obviously had no idea who that was.

1:00 mark, row 3, second from left - bored out of her tree

 

[Apple Jack]

Colonel post immediately followed by post referencing code red? 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

AP: Two 20-somethings extend ‘invisible hands’ in virus outbreak

https://www.invisiblehandsdeliver.com/ 
Free deliveries (groceries and medicine) for the most at-risk community members facing COVID-19.  Currently Servicing the greater New York area and parts of New Jersey! More locations coming soon…

One of my closest friends is from NY, and his mother is getting help from this org.  Truly amazing to see people step up and make a difference.

 

[Anarchy99]

The numbers are still being severely skewed by lack of testing.

Case in point: I have a close family member exhibiting all of the symptoms.

Our medical offices have been instructed to ask 3 standardized questions, basically: "Have you left the country recently?" "Have you been on a cruise recently?" "Have you been in contact with anyone who has tested positive for the virus?"

If you don't answer "yes" to one of those 3, they can't send you to a testing station. Instead, they were tested for flu to rule it out and then sent them home with treatment as if it is bronchitis. Doc said to call back if it worsened and they'd re-examine the testing options because the standards may have changed by then.

So I have three takeaways: 1- People who should be tested aren't getting tested and that's not great for our data and models. 2- We are going to have a hard time containing spread if we're not telling people they have it. 3- Our data on total cases is definitely flawed, which may mean the death rate is actually well below the feared 1% threshold.

Are we at a point where people should just answer yes to the screening questions if people really want to be tested? I suspect the answer (depending upon where people live) is for them to expect to be told that they ae presumptive positive, to self-quarantine, and to report back if their condition worsens to the point of being in "serious condition."

 

[shader]

New York reports 5,658 new cases and 53 new deaths.  They do a second update at night too.

 

[Capella]

Teen Who Died of Covid-19 Was Denied Treatment Because He Didn't Have Health Insurance

Only in America 

 

[bagger]

Only in America 

Best health care system in the world! ‘Murica!

SMH

 

[fantasycurse42]

New York reports 5,658 new cases and 53 new deaths.  They do a second update at night too.

NY was at 385 deaths yesterday, today so far Cuomo reported 519. 

The flu 

 

[jamny]

NY was at 385 deaths yesterday, today so far Cuomo reported 519. 

yesterday was 466

 

[fantasycurse42]

yesterday was 466

Then CNBC just gave bad information.

 

[BigJim®]

not sure I understand - showing people doing the right thing is unnecessary and undermining the need? 

No, placing focus on nonharmful conduct vs the conduct you need to curb. What's the point in showing 10,000 people driving without a cell phone in their hand if you want to bring attention to the 500 who are? Giving the impression through messaging that its not a big problem is not helpful to curbing the conduct.

 

[Chemical X]

Best health care system in the world! ‘Murica!

SMH

how much would medicare for all have cost us instead of the “here’s a check redneck” plan?  sure uninsured people would have preferred this.....

 

[jamny]

Then CNBC just gave bad information.

NYC was 385

 

[joffer]

Indiana with a big bump in new cases today.  50% increase

 

[shader]

Then CNBC just gave bad information.

You're both kind of right.  For most of the day yesterday if you checked the stats, New York was at a lower number.  They report a lot of their cases/deaths at night so it popped late in the evening, which can cause a bit of confusion at times.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I can't speak to the Daily Mail, but the Post has ALWAYS been "flexible" with what constitutes news, the truth, or objectivity.  For one, they are a platform that has historically conflated NEWSpaper with tabloid (they are even called a tabloid in NY... along with the Daily News, which imo is not nearly as egregious, but still sometimes veers... in all transparency, the Post is the "Right Leaning/Conservative" and Daily News the "Left Leaning/Liberal" tabloid/rag as they are referred to back home).  They are also a Murdoch outlet, for what that's worth. 

Between their lack of political objectivity and penchant for flair and controversy over truth, context, and straight shooting, I am naturally suspicious of anything the Post writes.  But, page 6 is a hoot, and for sports there is good value there.  That's generally it in my personal opinion. I also am very skeptical of what is in the Daily News.

I stopped reading the Daily News years ago. I was finding one out of every 4 or 5 articles I'd scroll through was some race baiting bull#### and I got sick of it.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The hospitalization rate in NY went from doubling every 2.5 days, to doubling every 3 days, and is now doubling every 4 days. The rate of doubling was based on 3-4 day increments going back a total of 11 days. This information was presented by Gov. Cuomo is his briefing today from the Javits Center where they built a 1000 bed facility in 48 hours.

This is not political: Gov. Cuomo is a straight up hero and an example of what leadership should be. 

 

[jamny]

There’s generally two updates...once during Cuomo’s press conference and then again at 6pm.  The 385 to 519 is from Cuomo pc to Cuomo pc

NY State numbers were 466 yesterday and 519 now.

Yesterday's city number was 385. Not sure today yet.

 

[fantasycurse42]

This is semantics, doesn't really matter, NY is in outbreak mode. I typically rely on Cuomo's presser. 

 

[[scooter]]

The key is that we can't let up.  Gotta keep doing what we're doing for another 2-4 weeks.  If we can, then maybe we can open the quarantine, alongside a massive testing initiative and do some serious contact tracing as well.  Do all those things and this can be eradicated in 2 months. 

I don't think 4 weeks is a realistic number, either in terms of length or in terms of compliance.

As soon as the people see the slightest hint of the curve starting to flatten, they will take it as a sign that it's safe to resume normal activity.

 

[Koya]

Same here. Just found out a college buddy who is a golf pro in Indianapolis has it and I guess he's not doing well.   

Greatest country in the world.  Compassionate, giving, all about helping others.

 

[Possum]

No, placing focus on nonharmful conduct vs the conduct you need to curb. What's the point in showing 10,000 people driving without a cell phone in their hand if you want to bring attention to the 500 who are? Giving the impression through messaging that its not a big problem is not helpful to curbing the conduct.

I don't think showing stuff like those kids at the beach on spring break does anything to help curb conduct. It helps stress the rest of us out further and keep eyes on the news.

ymmv, brother - I'm not saying treat the virus like a joke, just that some mental health breaks from the constant doom and gloom are a good idea.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

This is semantics, doesn't really matter, NY is in outbreak mode. I typically rely on Cuomo's presser. 

He reported 385 and 519. That's a 35% increase, right in line with what @moleculohas been tracking with his update this morning.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Probably some seasonality mixed in here as well, but the decline starts in mid February -- which is still part of peak flu season, so this probably gives you some idea of how social distancing is helping with CV as well.

Flu infections fell off a cliff starting the 7th week of the year.

 

[shader]

I don't think 4 weeks is a realistic number, either in terms of length or in terms of compliance.

As soon as the people see the slightest hint of the curve starting to flatten, they will take it as a sign that it's safe to resume normal activity.

2 weeks was not realistic, I shouldn't have put that.  4 weeks is realistic if it was accompanied with a world-class testing and contact tracing program, AND if people stay in their homes.

The reality is that I get the sense (could be anecdotal, therefore irrelevant) that people are getting antsy and compliance to quarantines are already slowly getting worse.

 

[BigJim®]

I don't think showing stuff like those kids at the beach on spring break does anything to help curb conduct.

What would you say showing me in my house does to curb the conduct?

 

[urbanhack]

Greatest country in the world.  Compassionate, giving, all about helping others.

Just saw an update where he posted that he's doing better after 10 days of feeling like death.