*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

[Sand]

3. an infected person projects a droplet onto a surface and you then touch that surface and then touch your face.

#3 confirmed.  Though without the need for the hands part.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

If reinfections are a thing then herd immunity is a fantasy world.  Still questions out there about whether tests are giving Type I and Type II errors that would account for this, though.

That's a shame.  Pretty place, nice people.

My next door neighbor (85ish) and not in great health just died today.  With all this corona virus craziness he fell getting out of bed of all things - turned out to be fatal.  Incredibly sad.

 -----

In other news Chicago had to put a curfew on liquor stores.  Least surprising thing ever.  The thought that liquor stores are "essential businesses" is absolutely insane.  They should be the first stores shut down.  A drug that lowers mental capability and inhibitions should be the first thing that gets restricted - we have enough issues with people acting poorly while sober.

I think it's been discussed already but the general idea I'm hearing from my wife is that they don't want all the alcoholics crashing on top of the load the pandemic is putting on health care.

 

[adonis]

There has been a lot of attention to the higher mortality rate among African Americans here.  I wonder whether there is a true higher susceptibility to Covid or if a higher incidence of pre-existing conditions and obesity explains it.  We already know that men are much more susceptible to this thing.

It's a reasonable question and one that needs answers.

Many times, where I live at least in the deep south, African Americans here have large numbers of folks living in poverty.  With poverty comes a lot of other things related to poorer health.  At least in my area it's hypertension, diabetes, and obesity.  Heart disease isn't too far behind.

I'd be curious how white folks in the same economic strata fare compared to their african american countrymen.  Is it a racial thing?  Is it poverty related?  Is it stress?  Is it genetic?

I've worked in healthcare and for quite some time it's widely known that african americans in our southernmost communities suffer from worse health outcomes.  Miscarriages are a good example with them happening at higher rates for african americans than white women.

Just a lot of things we don't fully understand, but do have enough data to say that in general, health outcomes for the poor and for african americans are generally worse, and when those two things are combined, like they are in high numbers in the south, it's a recipe for poor health outcomes in high volumes.  

 

[joffer]

I think it's been discussed already but the general idea I'm hearing from my wife is that they don't want all the alcoholics crashing on top of the load the pandemic is putting on health care.

I resemble that remark

 

[JAA]

There are 400k active cases in the USA. We can't do contact tracing on those.  To say the resources aren't there for that would be an understatement.  Also, everyone realizes that we still aren't at the point where testing is sufficient.

So we MUST stay at home until rapid testing is online AND the number of active cases is at a level where we can do contact tracing.  

If we don't, the R0 of this virus will cause the numbers to absolutely explode and the economy will truly fall apart.

This is impossible. Sorry

History and economic study disagrees with you

 

[JAA]

Can we all agree, without any finger pointing or specific examples, that this is a pretty funny autocorrect?  It made me exhale audibly

My friend said that once about Terrell Owens. Upon hearing that Owens credited God with healing a sprained ankle before the Super Bowl with the Patriots, my friend told me "Yeah. I heard this week that he spent time in a hyperbolic chamber!"

No lie. Guy had no idea what he'd just said. Classic

To be fair - it was a broken ankle. And he played like a stud in the SB

 

[rockaction]

To be fair - it was a broken ankle. And he played like a stud in the SB

Yes. Owens was brilliant that game and was some kinda receiver when he was motivated for the team to do well. When his own interests and the team's coincided, there were few better than TO.

 

[parasaurolophus]

History and economic study disagrees with you

Ummmm....what? There are economic studies about contact tracing? There is history here? 

 

[tri-man 47]

Having now finished four weeks of WFH and minimal trips out, I feel pretty confident that I could continue this routine more or less indefinitely. 

The main problem that I would encounter is that I am a runner.  Sitting here in early April in the upper Midwest, that's great -- we're heading into spring and I expect that I'll be able to run pretty much any day that I feel like it for the next bunch of months.  But when we get into October/November, we will start getting weather that would normally push me indoors.  Our winter is really like 5-6 months, and while I have a ton of winter gear for outdoor running, that's just not an option for when the roads are iced over or loaded with snow or when the windchill is -10 or lower.  The lack of a gym will be a problem for me, but if I knew we were doing this long term, I could just shell out for a treadmill.  

Otherwise, this is all basically fine for me.  

I'm feeling the same.  I was going to my university a mile down the street (since virtually no one else was around), but after being encouraged to stay home, I've resettled into home-based routines.  I catch my run most mornings, settle into work routines (professor stuff ...posting notes; creating assignments and discussions; grading), and get a fair amount of 'chill' time.  I've done more spring yard work than I ever have, using that as an excuse to get outside for an hour or two.  I'd also consider a treadmill if this continued.  

This week has been interesting for a grad-level survey of accounting course.  We're looking at budgets, and I always focus on the interrelationships between operating budgets, capital budgets, and cash budgets.  I created a simple spreadsheet that links these together (based off of the Stm of Cash Flows).  Early this week, students used the form to project 2020 budgets for Home Depot (a good e.g. because they have very steady, clean numbers).  In prepping for their discussion, a couple students found that HD had discussed Covid-19 in their 2019 annual report (the report written up several weeks ago)!  Most of the students wrestled with the effect of the pandemic and likely recession on HD's performance.  They're all now in another discussion where they post an article related to budgeting, and they're finding relevant stuff about companies and industries adjusting budgets during these difficult times.  

 

[timschochet]

As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 

 

[beer 30]

I'm feeling the same.  I was going to my university a mile down the street (since virtually no one else was around), but after being encouraged to stay home, I've resettled into home-based routines.  I catch my run most mornings, settle into work routines (professor stuff ...posting notes; creating assignments and discussions; grading), and get a fair amount of 'chill' time.  I've done more spring yard work than I ever have, using that as an excuse to get outside for an hour or two.  I'd also consider a treadmill if this continued.  

This week has been interesting for a grad-level survey of accounting course.  We're looking at budgets, and I always focus on the interrelationships between operating budgets, capital budgets, and cash budgets.  I created a simple spreadsheet that links these together (based off of the Stm of Cash Flows).  Early this week, students used the form to project 2020 budgets for Home Depot (a good e.g. because they have very steady, clean numbers).  In prepping for their discussion, a couple students found that HD had discussed Covid-19 in their 2019 annual report (the report written up several weeks ago)!  Most of the students wrestled with the effect of the pandemic and likely recession on HD's performance.  They're all now in another discussion where they post an article related to budgeting, and they're finding relevant stuff about companies and industries adjusting budgets during these difficult times.  

My company had just completed the budgetary process for the upcoming year in February (our year end is April 30). Because of the massive upheaval to the rental industry we’ve basically scrapped that budget and will revisit at a later date. Over 700 locations and pfffft, out the window. I’d hate to be the accountants on this years audit.

 

[Doug B]

FWIW I remember reading the other day that CDC is unaware of anyone being infected by touching a contaminated surface. 

I'd buy this too.  They only know what the testing and surveys reveal.  Given that we are so far behind in testing it doesn't surprise me.  If I'm being honest, it seems like the ONLY way she could have gotten it at this point.  We just can't figure out how she would have otherwise, which is kinda why I am still thinking it's NOT Covid-19.

Can someone help me out with this? If people don't get this from contaminated surfaces, then what is the washing your hands as a way to combat this all about? I really am completely confused by the recommendations and official messages about how this virus spreads

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html

Read that link. What msommer wrote was a bowdlerization of the fourth sentence of the first paragraph.

It’s not that the CDC doesn’t think fomite transmission happens. It’s that such transmission is not specifically documented the way spread via personal contact can sometimes be.

Additionally, mere touching of a virus-laden surface won’t infect anyone. Touching a dirty surface AND THEN your face near your mouth, nostrils, or eyes — that could well infect you.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Can someone help me out with this? If people don't get this from contaminated surfaces, then what is the washing your hands as a way to combat this all about? I really am completely confused by the recommendations and official messages about how this virus spreads. 

This is why (and not pointing a finger at anyone for being cautious in their own ways.. not judging here), I personally feel like wiping down groceries, throwing away bags etc. is a little bit of overkill. It ALL hinges on not touching your face with possibly infected hands or breathing in someone's infected droplets. As I had posted before, there's been no evidence as of yet that food transfers the virus at all, so you can Eat the VirusTM all you want, just don't touch your face if you haven't washed your hands first. So, assuming you're not being, for whatever reasons, constantly exposed to possible droplet infections, it really comes down to your level of personal discipline in not touching your face with unwashed/unsanitized hands. I think the guidelines are just assuming that most people lack that discipline. 

 

[proteus126]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

I don't think anyone has argued that here, as far as the mortality rate vs the ACTUAL number of cases that are likely out there but not reported due to lack of available testing. We won't have an accurate mortality rate until well after this thing is over, IMO. The issue is and always has been the number of infections at one time (i.e. overwhelming of the healthcare system). I think it's the media who took the mortality rate stinkbait and ran with it, and of course the general public ate it up. If all of the flu infections took place over a 2-3 month period instead of 6-8, it too would likely overwhelm hospitals. Just my opinion from the data I have analyzed. 

 

[NotSmart]

As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 

I'd definitely remember like an elephant.

 

[joffer]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

my only problem with this theory is that no countries with serious outbreaks and the highest per capital test rates are reporting a CFR under 2%.  or am I missing some?  I guess the hypothesis that this has already infected a significant % of the population is possible, but is there any data showing that?  just seems like speculation.

ETA: I suppose Israel is one exception,  but not a huge sample size 

 

[DaVinci]

3. an infected person projects a droplet onto a surface and you then touch that surface and then touch your face.

#3 confirmed.  Though without the need for the hands part.

It wasn’t clear whether Larz’s apparent infection was linked to the stunt.

 

[BassNBrew]

As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 

I hope you have great locations and when times are good and they are killing it you refuse to renew their lease and shut them down

 

[cosjobs]

If reinfections are a thing then herd immunity is a fantasy world.  Still questions out there about whether tests are giving Type I and Type II errors that would account for this, though.

That's a shame.  Pretty place, nice people.

My next door neighbor (85ish) and not in great health just died today.  With all this corona virus craziness he fell getting out of bed of all things - turned out to be fatal.  Incredibly sad.

 -----

In other news Chicago had to put a curfew on liquor stores.  Least surprising thing ever.  The thought that liquor stores are "essential businesses" is absolutely insane.  They should be the first stores shut down.  A drug that lowers mental capability and inhibitions should be the first thing that gets restricted - we have enough issues with people acting poorly while sober.

Easy there Carrie Nation

 

[Redwes25]

Spoke to a bunch of friends on Zoom tonight one of whom is an NYPD sergeant in Queens. He says about one third of the precinct is out sick with about half of those being confirmed cases and rest just showing symptoms but not tested yet or waiting for results. He has going out for patrols now given the numbers but given he is a Sargent he hasn’t done a patrol in 5 years, which just shows impact on the NYPD.

The one thing to counteract all the sick cops is  that calls are down tremendously. Unfortunately, basically only calls that remain are domestic violence and DOA which used to be rare. He says numbers in NYC are way undercounting given all the DOAs. 

 

[bentley]

It's a reasonable question and one that needs answers.

Many times, where I live at least in the deep south, African Americans here have large numbers of folks living in poverty.  With poverty comes a lot of other things related to poorer health.  At least in my area it's hypertension, diabetes, and obesity.  Heart disease isn't too far behind.

I'd be curious how white folks in the same economic strata fare compared to their african american countrymen.  Is it a racial thing?  Is it poverty related?  Is it stress?  Is it genetic?

I've worked in healthcare and for quite some time it's widely known that african americans in our southernmost communities suffer from worse health outcomes.  Miscarriages are a good example with them happening at higher rates for african americans than white women.

Just a lot of things we don't fully understand, but do have enough data to say that in general, health outcomes for the poor and for african americans are generally worse, and when those two things are combined, like they are in high numbers in the south, it's a recipe for poor health outcomes in high volumes.  

It’s institutional racism. No doubt.

 

[bentley]

I bet all the adulterers are missing their side pieces right now.

 

[TheWinz]

I bet all the adulterers are missing their side pieces right now.

Why are your interests listed as booze, chicks and man?

 

[joffer]

Spoke to a bunch of friends on Zoom tonight one of whom is an NYPD sergeant in Queens. He says about one third of the precinct is out sick with about half of those being confirmed cases and rest just showing symptoms but not tested yet or waiting for results. He has going out for patrols now given the numbers but given he is a Sargent he hasn’t done a patrol in 5 years, which just shows impact on the NYPD.

The one thing to counteract all the sick cops is  that calls are down tremendously. Unfortunately, basically only calls that remain are domestic violence and DOA which used to be rare. He says numbers in NYC are way undercounting given all the DOAs. 

The scariest part of this is the impact of infections on first responders and front line healthcare workers

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/coronavirus-testing-cdc-fda-red-tape-invs/index.html

 

[shader]

my only problem with this theory is that no countries with serious outbreaks and the highest per capital test rates are reporting a CFR under 2%.  or am I missing some?  I guess the hypothesis that this has already infected a significant % of the population is possible, but is there any data showing that?  just seems like speculation.

ETA: I suppose Israel is one exception,  but not a huge sample size 

There is absolutely no data at all showing sub-1%, and very few sub 2%. 

 

[shader]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

Zakaria isn’t exactly making a ground-breaking argument here. People have been saying that for months, despite no evidence.  One day we will see if they were right or not, but when you listen to people in hospitals, you realize the right decisions were made, regardless of what the “final” CFR turns out to be

 

[Anarchy99]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

I have always felt the math used to calculate this has always been fuzzy as all the data being considered contains a lot of unknowns. 

As far as the flu comparisons go, we are close to having 2k fatalities a day from COVID with a lot of people not having been exposed and the huge majority of people staying home in a very narrow timeframe. 

There were 50K fatalities from the flu spread across a year with no movement restrictions. It’s not inconceivable that we could hit 50,000 fatalities with COVID in a single month (maybe two) with tons of movement restrictions. I am not an epidemiologist nor a mathematician, but as an observer it does not look to me that COVID is similar to seasonal flu. 

 

[lakerstan]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

Also, the U.S. represents only 4.5% of the world’s population, yet has 29% of the world’s cases.  Something’s funky.

 

[timschochet]

The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

The problem is that nobody, at least that I’ve heard, has offered a workable plan to accomplish this. 

 

[rockaction]

The problem is that nobody, at least that I’ve heard, has offered a workable plan to accomplish this. 

Nope. We seem to be charging headlong and willy-nilly into "same as it ever was" when that just won't do. 

 

[Morton Muffley]

Fareed Zakaria in his WaPo editorial suggests that the models are greatly overestimating the mortality rate for COVID, because they grossly underestimated the number of infected.  The phrase "suggests a fatality rate that is actually similar to that of the season flu" is uttered by one highly credentialed expert.  Some here won't like that (because people will let their guard down I suppose), but I am just passing it on.

Zakaria in the last paragraph correctly states that we NEED DATA in order to make policy.

However, the policy makers won't wait for the data forever.  The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

Am a big fan of Fareed and agree with the initial assessment about lack of data, models only being as good as their inputs, and small changes to base assumptions having big impacts.  But the contention that the CFR is similar to the seasonal flu is an argument that seems both wrong and ill-conceived.

First, not sure what he means by "similar to the seasonal flu."  If he means less than .2% (ie double the seasonal flu's .1% fatality that seems highly unlikely.  As others have noted, the seasonal flu kills 30-60k per year and it appears we will approach that in a single month.  That would mean that Covid would have to be much more contagious and widespread than we previously thought.  That's possible, but if so that bring us to...

Given what we are seeing throughout tge world, either hospitalization rate must be much, much higher than seasonal or hospitalizations generally are far too high given it's consciousness.  The Dutch study Zakaria links to cites an estimated 3-5% infection rate already.  That would mean there were a lot of hospitalization for such a small % of the community to be infected.

So any way you cut the data there are problems that would make any comparison to the seasonal flu problematic.  And as a figure of considerable import I'd even say that makes his argument ill conceived.  

So, rather than comparing this to something we understand, I think we'd be better of charting it on that pandemic graph.  And I'd suggest it is worse than the 1957 flu, but nowhere near as bad as the 1918 flu.

As always, just my opinion

 

[Morton Muffley]

There is absolutely no data at all showing sub-1%, and very few sub 2%. 

Well, there's this

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

 

[Judge Smails]

Having now finished four weeks of WFH and minimal trips out, I feel pretty confident that I could continue this routine more or less indefinitely. 

The main problem that I would encounter is that I am a runner.  Sitting here in early April in the upper Midwest, that's great -- we're heading into spring and I expect that I'll be able to run pretty much any day that I feel like it for the next bunch of months.  But when we get into October/November, we will start getting weather that would normally push me indoors.  Our winter is really like 5-6 months, and while I have a ton of winter gear for outdoor running, that's just not an option for when the roads are iced over or loaded with snow or when the windchill is -10 or lower.  The lack of a gym will be a problem for me, but if I knew we were doing this long term, I could just shell out for a treadmill.  

Otherwise, this is all basically fine for me.  

Wow. Not me. Sure I can do it. But pretty ####### far from fine for me

 

[[scooter]]

The momentum is going to build, and quickly, to restart the economy while taking special care to protect the vulnerable.

The problem is that nobody, at least that I’ve heard, has offered a workable plan to accomplish this. 

There's no such thing as a "workable" plan. Every scenario will result in more death and a taller curve.

But if we're still locked down by summertime, there is going to be a massive push -- from the public, from the business world, and from others -- to restart the economy whether we're ready or not. "The cure can't be worse than the problem" will become a dominant talking point.

And, I think by that point we'll have enough data to justify "business as usual" for the vast majority of people under the age of 50.

People who are over 50 and/or at-risk (due to health) will still be advised to shelter-in-place.......but the rest of us will be told to go spend, spend, spend.

 

[Penguin]

Really eerie out, I just went to mail a letter. I live on a major artery at the Jersey Shore, usually takes me 5 minutes+ to be able to cross he road, even in non summer months, way longer in season. Tonight I was out and didn't see a single car in over 10 minutes, really really creepy. 

 

[Angry Beavers]

Cleveland Area guy here.  I'm not surprised by this.  There is still a very LOUD social media circle of folks out there who think this is BS and DeWine is an idiot.  That being said, most people here are happy with the course Ohio has taken.  Even my wife's parents who were screaming how big of an idiot DeWine was until things started getting real and in your face.  Now they have backed off the "it's just a flu" and are taking it very seriously.  Don't hear them complain anymore.  

The majority of folks here support him, but the ones who dissent usually are the loudest. 

Alos, a Cleveland area buy and unfortunately, I have seen a bunch of these types of posts tonight basically saying this is a hoax and some kind of overblown issue and we should open everything up immediately.  I can only guess that this has not landed on top of them or their loved ones. 

 

[encaitar]

As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 

Yeah.  I don't think I'd be easily forgetting this either.  I'd have real trouble not responding with an eviction notice(even though it wouldn't be processed until the state started working again), but certainly would not be renewing their lease once it came up.

 

[chet]

First hand account from an ICU nurse I saw on another board.  These people are heroes and will suffer from PTSD.

“I lost a patient today. He was not the first, and unfortunately he's definitely not the last. But he was different. I've been an ER nurse my entire career, but in New York I find myself in the ICU. At this point there's not really anywhere in the hospital that isn't ICU, all covid 19 positive. They are desperate for nurses who can titrate critical medication drips and troubleshoot ventiltors.  

I've taken care of this man the last three nights, a first for me. In the ER I rarely keep patients for even one 12 hour shift. His entire two week stay had been rough for him, but last night was the worst. I spent the first six hours of my shift not really leaving his room. By the end, with so many medications infusing at their maximum, I was begging the doctor to call his family and let them know. "He's not going to make it", I said. The poor doctors are so busy running from code to code, being pulled by emergent patients every minute. All I could think of was the voice of my mom in my head, crying as I got on the plane to leave for this place: "Those people are alone, you take good care of them". I was the only person in that room for three nights in a row, fighting as hard as I could to keep this man alive. The doctor was able to reach the family, update them. It was decided that when his heart inevitably stopped we wouldn't try to restart it. There just wasn't anything else left to do. 

Eventually, he gave up. It was just him and me and his intubated roommate in the next bed. The wooden door to the room is shut, containing infection and cutting us off from the rest of the world. I called the doctor to come and mark the time of death. I wished so much that I could let his family know that while they might not have been with him, I was. 

I shut the pumps down (so horribly many of them), disconnected the vent, took him off the monitor. We didn't extubate him, too much of a risk to staff. Respiratory took the vent as soon as I called. It's just a portable one, but it's life to someone downstairs. The CNA helped me to wash him and place him in a body bag, a luxury afforded only to those who make it out of the ER. Down there the bodies pile up on stretchers, alone, while the patients on vents wait for the golden spot my gentleman just vacated. We'll talk about the ER another time. My patient was obviously healthy in his life. I look at his picture in his chart, the kind they take from a camera over a computer when you aren't really prepared. A head shot, slightly awkward. I see someone's Grandpa, someone's Dad, someones Husband. They aren't here with him. My heart breaks for them. 

I fold his cute old man sweater and place it in a bag with his loafers, his belongings. I ask where to put this things. A coworker opens the door to a locked room; labeled bags are piled to the ceiling. My heart drops. It's all belongings of deceased parents, waiting for a family member to someday claim them. A few nights ago they had 17 deaths in a shift. The entire unit is only 17 beds.  

These patients are so fragile. It's such a delicate balance of breathing, of blood pressure, of organ function. The slightest movement or change sends them into hours long death spirals. The codes are so frequent those not directly involved barely even register them. The patients are all the same, every one. Regardless of age, health status, wealth, family, or power the diagnosis is the same, the disease process is the same, and the aloneness is the same. Our floor has one guy that made it to extubation. He's 30 years old. I view him as our mascot, our ray of hope that not everyone here is just waiting to die. I know that most people survive just fine, but that's not what it feels like in this place. Most of the hospital staff is out sick. We, the disaster staff, keep our n95 masks glued to our faces. We all think we are invincible, but I find myself eyeing up my coworkers, wondering who the weak ones are, knowing deep down that not all of us will make it out of here alive. 

A bus takes us back to the hotel the disaster staff resides in, through deserted Manhatten. We are a few blocks from Central Park. We pass radio city music hall, nbc studios, times square. There is no traffic. The sidewalks are empty. My room is on the 12th floor. At 7pm you can hear people cheering and banging on and pans for the healthcare workers at change of shift. This city is breaking and stealing my heart simultaneously. I didn't know what I was getting into coming here, but it's turning out to be quite a lot. 

 

[General Malaise]

There is a show on Fox News called "Hannity" and he had a guest on there named Mark Levin (not the FBG Mod) who he kept calling the "Great One".

The Great One spent 12 minutes reading from paper in his lap and said this whole thing is overblown and we need to get back to work.  

So.....why aren't we doing that?  Why not listen to this Hannity guy and the Great One?

 

[trader jake]

Apologies if posted here previously, but I found this interesting coming from the guy who was the subject of the movie "The Big Short". He predicted the 2008 housing market crash/financial crisis. Bloomberg piece with his thoughts on how we got here, what should be doing, and predictions for how we'll come out of this...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm

I think there's something in there for everyone to agree and disagree with so I won't comment on what I think is right or wrong. I do think that, like it or not, his suggestion for how we should be handling this in terms of shutdown, is what we'll see soon.

There's a reason he was a doctor and is now an investor.  He sounds like it too. His suggestion would result in even worse economic conditions in the long run.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Totally unproven conjecture that I’ll call a theory... not all exposures are the same. Perhaps getting exposed to a few droplets finely distributed in the air might be a good thing. Maybe the amount of viral load matters and affects the time the immune system has to formulate its response and form antibodies. Perhaps a factor regarding why some develop little to no symptoms has to do with amount of virus ingested...? 

Yes. Three main factors determine the risk for/severity of infection:

1. The virulence of the pathogen 

2. Host susceptibility 

3. The size of the inoculum.

 

[Penguin]

.

 

[Penguin]

There is a show on Fox News called "Hannity" and he had a guest on there named Mark Levin (not the FBG Mod) who he kept calling the "Great One".

The Great One spent 12 minutes reading from paper in his lap and said this whole thing is overblown and we need to get back to work.  

So.....why aren't we doing that?  Why not listen to this Hannity guy and the Great One?

Oof

 

[General Malaise]

Really eerie out, I just went to mail a letter. I live on a major artery at the Jersey Shore, usually takes me 5 minutes+ to be able to cross he road, even in non summer months, way longer in season. Tonight I was out and didn't see a single car in over 10 minutes, really really creepy. 

Don't understand.  I'm watching a major news station right now and this guy Shawn Hannity swears this isn't a real problem.  That we are being fed lies.  He just had a guest called The Great One who confirmed that this is a hoax.  Are you guys not seeing this?  It's on channel 748 here.  Comcast.  No virus....just a liberal conspiracy to rig the election.  Fascinating! 

 

[General Malaise]

I'll report live.  Feel like you guys aren't being informed.  

Same station, new host.  A blonde named Lauren Ingles.

YOU GUYS!!!!!  WE HAVE A CURE!  Hydroxicodontie....there's a guest on here now that cured his Covid 19  with the drug Donald Trump invented.  Why are we even worried? 

 

[TheWinz]

I'll report live.  Feel like you guys aren't being informed.  

Same station, new host.  A blonde named Lauren Ingles.

YOU GUYS!!!!!  WE HAVE A CURE!  Hydroxicodontie....there's a guest on here now that cured his Covid 19  with the drug Donald Trump invented.  Why are we even worried? 

I just tuned in to Fox News.  Ingraham is yapping.  I wanted to see the Hannity/Great One discussion

 

[General Malaise]

I just tuned in to Fox News.  Ingraham is yapping.  I wanted to see the Hannity/Great One discussion

Yapping?  Bruh, we have a drug that cures this disease!  You didn't see that?  Hydroxicodroxiodine has eradicated the virus in 129% of all patients, but the liberal media is refusing to inform us about that because they want to sabotage the economy.  Nancy Pelosi owns the largest stockpile of this drug but won't grant access to it because she hates America.

It's so obvious!  Do you guys not watch this?  

 

[rockaction]

 Do you guys not watch this?  

Nope. It would just make me angry. And I'm a conservative. This isn't a conservative or liberal position. It's a pandemic and a virus. If this is the movement, they've long since lost me.