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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

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:rolleyes:  My link

Considering that being placed in a managerial position requires a certain amount of experience and that as workers get older they tend to rise to positions of increasing power or skill, it is absolutely true that a significant portion of managers will be over 50 and/or have health issues.
I dont doubt plenty of managers are over 50.

I just dont believe we would use 50 as the cutoff. 

 
Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 
So serious plans call for establishing a massive techno tracing state but regular people are told not to wear N95 masks because there isn’t enough. Maybe just start with simple stuff first?

 
So serious plans call for establishing a massive techno tracing state but regular people are told not to wear N95 masks because there isn’t enough. Maybe just start with simple stuff first?
Downloading an app isn't simple? How many people have downloaded Zoom since this started?

Testing on the other hand will take time to ramp up, obviously. But the article (which was an opinion piece) was quoting poll numbers about surveillance and how Americans don't agree with it. Well, do we agree with a virus that spreads like crazy and kills people more? I just find that side of the argument absurd.

 
I think I've only got it once, too.  When my kids were real little and the wife and I didn't want to get them sick.  Honestly, I don't think I've EVER had the flu.  Big-time knock on wood.
Ditto.  Actually, I’ve never had either one, that I can recall.  Definitely never the flu shot.  May have had the flu as a young kid, but not that I can remember.  

 
Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.
At risk of clarifying what I'm sure you meant, let's be a bit clearer:

Unfettered capitalism serves both the shareholders AND the common good...EXCEPT when those two come into conflict, then it serves the shareholders at the EXPENSE OF the common good.

or to put it more simply:

Capitalism (with proper guardrails) serves the common good.

The devil in the details is what guardrails need to be put in place and when.  That's what needs to be discussed and debated.  And lest anyone think I am arguing in favor of re-opening the country before cases are near zero and aggressive contact tracing is in place, I am certainly not.  

I just think we need to be clearer with our language and as such, I don't think a statement such as "capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good" is very helpful.

 
On a per capita basis, Germany is doing more than 2x and with a similar timeline and better contact tracing still has 1/4 of the infections.
The OP was asking why US had more reported cases.  If Country A tests 200 million and Country B tests 20 million, Country A will likely have more stated cases.

There's also a certain level of trust involved with the numbers coming out of each country.  If you want to tap your inner Alex Jones there's plenty of theories about why countries would present agenda-driven data.  But don't tap your inner Alex Jones.

 
Honestly having been to Germany and working with Germans daily, I believe this 100%. They are a different breed. 
Ha!  Have been thinking this for awhile but haven't really known how to express it.  So here goes, and apologies in advance if this is stereotypical/offensive:

If I told you 6 months ago that there'd be a global pandemic and that:

  • 2 countries would do a very good job
  • 3 countries would perform poorly
  • 2 countries would lie about how they performed
And then I gave you,the below list of countries:

  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • France
  • Iran
  • Spain
  • Germany
  • Italy
I'd bet most people here could have easily categorized each country 100% correctly.

Do people disagree? 

Do people find that surprising? Depressing?

Should I be banned?

Is this the stupidest post you have ever read?

Should I have kept this thought to myself?

 
So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.

 
The OP was asking why US had more reported cases.  If Country A tests 200 million and Country B tests 20 million, Country A will likely have more stated cases.

There's also a certain level of trust involved with the numbers coming out of each country.  If you want to tap your inner Alex Jones there's plenty of theories about why countries would present agenda-driven data.  But don't tap your inner Alex Jones.
I think due to the containment and tracking protocols in Germany they have been able to better discern who needs to be tested and who doesn't.  They have a better handle on the actual numbers than the US where it has been pretty much a cluster####.  To attribute the higher numbers in the US to our commitment to testing is misguided at best.

 
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Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.
At risk of clarifying what I'm sure you meant, let's be a bit clearer:

Unfettered capitalism serves both the shareholders AND the common good...EXCEPT when those two come into conflict, then it serves the shareholders at the EXPENSE OF the common good.

or to put it more simply:

Capitalism (with proper guardrails) serves the common good.

The devil in the details is what guardrails need to be put in place and when.  That's what needs to be discussed and debated.  And lest anyone think I am arguing in favor of re-opening the country before cases are near zero and aggressive contact tracing is in place, I am certainly not.  

I just think we need to be clearer with our language and as such, I don't think a statement such as "capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good" is very helpful.
Thanks for the reply.

I agree that capitalism could work for the common good if guardrails where in place.  Unfortunately, they are not nor do I believe most people understand why they should want them.

Example 1:  Capitalism currently servers the shareholders.  Shareholders used to be long-term minded investors who wanted to be a part in the growth of companies.  The growth of companies used to be driven through hiring people and growing a localized workforce.  That served the common good.  Today, shareholders are driven by microsecond deviations of 1/8th percentage points.  If their point drops, they sell millions upon millions of shares of companies that employ people.  People cannot respond to this level of change.  Also, IIRC 70% of all stock is not owned by individuals.  Think about that.

Example 2:  We as a people want and expect our citizens to have a savings account and plan for "when things get tough".  While the vast majority of Americans dont have these savings, if they lose their job or have an unexpected cost they could lose their house, car, everything.  They may need to declare bankruptcy, get their future wages garnished, stay with family/friends until its all recovered from.  Now - look at corporations.  Our stock market drops like 20-30% in 1 month, just 1 month, and now all corporations need to layoff millions of workers.  We have the largest unemployment numbers in like forever.  Why is it we expect our citizens to have "savings accounts for tough times", but we dont expect our corporations to have the same protections?  Where is the corporations plans?  Why did they not prepare for hardship or the unexpected expense?  Where was this future planning when things were good?  Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?

Once you understand the system and how is is organized, its easy to see, plainly easy IMO, that it does not benefit the common good.

None of what I have said above is political.

 
So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.
The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.

 
Ha!  Have been thinking this for awhile but haven't really known how to express it.  So here goes, and apologies in advance if this is stereotypical/offensive:

If I told you 6 months ago that there'd be a global pandemic and that:

  • 2 countries would do a very good job
  • 3 countries would perform poorly
  • 2 countries would lie about how they performed
And then I gave you,the below list of countries:

  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • France
  • Iran
  • Spain
  • Germany
  • Italy
I'd bet most people here could have easily categorized each country 100% correctly.

Do people disagree? 

Do people find that surprising? Depressing?

Should I be banned?

Is this the stupidest post you have ever read?

Should I have kept this thought to myself?
well stated!

 
The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.
Can you share that original model?  All the ones I have seen show those numbers with no NPI in place.

 
I think due to the containment protocols in Germany they have been able to better discern who needs to be tested and who doesn't.  They have a better handle on the actual numbers than the US where it has been pretty much a cluster####.  To attribute the higher numbers in the US to our commitment to testing is misguided at best.
I'll try one more time.  If I have a group of 10 people with 9 apples and you have a group of two people with two apples, while your group has more apples per capita my group has more apples.

 
so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?
Have heard this conversation as well...Im sure a large amount will slowly get back to doing this as a greeting hear.  But there will be people that opt not to.  Unfortunately, some that opt not to will be considered rude by some IMO.  Really that seems to be an American problem (not fully...but other cultures have their own greetings).

Im thinking a good head nod works well. No way Americans take to bowing to each other.

 
Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?
Don't forget that corporations have access to a slew of tax loopholes, such as abatements, etc... that no mom & pop business competing with them could ever obtain. Not to mention the buying power.

 
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Can anyone think of a way to prevent bad incentives if the government eventually issues "immunity cards" that allow people to go back to work, etc.?

I feel like this could be at least part of how we get out of this mess, but I also feel like it would incentivize younger healthier people to deliberately get infected, which would therefore make the virus spread more rapidly to the at-risk groups, crashing our hospital system again.  

 
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The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.
The math in all of this has constantly been fuzzy. In the U.S. with 95% of people sheltering in place, we are almost at 2K deaths a day. If we were all out and about, without any other medical or scientific intervention, why would we expect the number of fatalities to go down? Because we got healthier? Because we got immunity? Would staying six feet apart, washing hands, and wearing masks cut the number of fatalities down to only a handful?

My point being, either we all have to stay cooped up, there needs to be a vaccine, or there needs to be a better way to sort the healthy fro the sick. Short of that, there could months with 40-50K fatalities per month. 

 
Just saw a news article on a local news site saying that Florida's agriculture industry is getting slammed by this pandemic as well, since they sell to schools and theme parks, which are all closed. They're basically leaving that stuff to rot, and to add to Florida's issues: agriculture is the 2nd largest portion of the economy here, after tourism. Since that's already pretty much shut down, and since we grow produce in the "winter" here(yes, it can get too hot to grow stuff here), this happened at a really bad time, and farmers are losing millions of dollars. Just an unseen side effect of the pandemic.

 
That analogy is worse than your original argument.
It's as simple as I could make it.  [More people tested = more cases than the places where there were less people tested] didn't seem to sink in.

It's not an argument, it's just basic statistics.  I'm not saying one country has done better than another.  There will be plenty of time for all of that ankle biting once this is over.

 
Downloading an app isn't simple? How many people have downloaded Zoom since this started?

Testing on the other hand will take time to ramp up, obviously. But the article (which was an opinion piece) was quoting poll numbers about surveillance and how Americans don't agree with it. Well, do we agree with a virus that spreads like crazy and kills people more? I just find that side of the argument absurd.
Ah, we'll just tell Facebook to slip in a few permissions updates.

 
Just saw a news article on a local news site saying that Florida's agriculture industry is getting slammed by this pandemic as well, since they sell to schools and theme parks, which are all closed. They're basically leaving that stuff to rot, and to add to Florida's issues: agriculture is the 2nd largest portion of the economy here, after tourism. Since that's already pretty much shut down, and since we grow produce in the "winter" here(yes, it can get too hot to grow stuff here), this happened at a really bad time, and farmers are losing millions of dollars. Just an unseen side effect of the pandemic.
This seems like it should be able to be solved.  People are still eating food now, they're just doing it at home instead of at school or at Disneyworld.  Shouldn't there be an increase in demand for these agricultural products in supermarkets and takeout food?

 
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So ended the first month in the Age of Distancing, also known as the Great Isolation. Web cams were humming, the “curve” was being monitored and hands were kept clean. And the people stayed home, adapted their habits and looked into the future with a mixture of curiosity and concern.

 
So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.
For me the main concern has always been overwhelming our medical system. It appears as if we have prevented that and can now begin discussing slowly opening back up, with the help of testing.

 
Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 
On 9/10/2001 pretty much nobody would have expected what has occurred in air travel but it happened pretty quickly, we accepted it and now it is part of life. We, as Americans, will adapt. Kinda what we do and partly what makes us great. Look at the response to this virus? We're compressing years long timelines into months/weeks. Pretty impressive stuff is going on right now if you stop and look around.

How on earth is this not trying to be political?
Jeez the political cops are out early. Dude made a statement, ease up

File under:  @rockaction is not discussing but arguing.  Thanks, but ill pass on this one :bye:
:goodposting:

 
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Just saw a news article on a local news site saying that Florida's agriculture industry is getting slammed by this pandemic as well, since they sell to schools and theme parks, which are all closed. They're basically leaving that stuff to rot, and to add to Florida's issues: agriculture is the 2nd largest portion of the economy here, after tourism. Since that's already pretty much shut down, and since we grow produce in the "winter" here(yes, it can get too hot to grow stuff here), this happened at a really bad time, and farmers are losing millions of dollars. Just an unseen side effect of the pandemic.
I guess one good thing regarding FL agriculture is that orange juice sales are on fire.

 
The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.
Well that was a dumb model if it predicted 2 million deaths with a full lockdown.

2 million deaths in the USA is still theoretically possible, but the government clearly won’t allow that to happen. 

 
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Jeez the political cops are out early. Dude made a statement, ease up
When somebody announces they're not trying to be political and then proceed to indict the political machinations of the economy, it would seem not out line to say something. Dude did make a statement. I'm not a political cop, but it was nakedly political. Notice I didn't tell him he was wrong in his belief, simply that what he said was inherently political. YMMV on doing that, but I did.

 
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This seems like it should be able to be solved.  People are still eating food now, they're just doing it at home instead of at school or at Disneyworld.  Shouldn't there be an increase in demand for these agricultural products in supermarkets and takeout food?
The article asked a similar question, a lot of the supermarket chains already have contracts for produce, a lot of which originates overseas, so farmers not in those contracts are pretty much SOL.

 
It's as simple as I could make it.  [More people tested = more cases than the places where there were less people tested] didn't seem to sink in.

It's not an argument, it's just basic statistics.  I'm not saying one country has done better than another.  There will be plenty of time for all of that ankle biting once this is over.
So if Germany tested at the same rate as the US they would have similar numbers?

 
The article asked a similar question, a lot of the supermarket chains already have contracts for produce, a lot of which originates overseas, so farmers not in those contracts are pretty much SOL.
For now they are...

The other fallout from this is going to be a refocusing of sourcing from America. I don't think there is any doubt folks will be more than willing to spend an extra $1, $20, $100 depending on what you are buying if has a Made In America sticker on it. Including your oranges & bananas. 

 
Downloading an app isn't simple? How many people have downloaded Zoom since this started?

Testing on the other hand will take time to ramp up, obviously. But the article (which was an opinion piece) was quoting poll numbers about surveillance and how Americans don't agree with it. Well, do we agree with a virus that spreads like crazy and kills people more? I just find that side of the argument absurd.
I'm not harping on your post at all. So none of this is a crit on what you said, just joining the convo down thread. Really should've quoted the post with the article. Sorry.

I'm on board with the "we can do this". I actually believe the free market can do a lot to solve and mitigate this situation. I just question if our gov is up for the task, especially to take a lead role. They can't even figure out how to get $1200 into people's bank accounts in a timely manner and we already have a massive electronic transfer infrastructure and the IRS in place. CDC botched testing, etc., etc.

I do like ideas like the Kinsa Health Weather Map. Something like that could be open sourced, have a larger install base and tweaked to better represent indications of this and other viruses. I like it. I just don't understand articles like the Vox article talking about what needs to be done next in phase 2 to re-start the economy. How does any of that  happen before a vaccine or treatment can be developed? QR codes on every building? Who is building this app? How does some old lady who can't work a microwave download it? Homeless people? Seems like a massive lift when there are simpler things we can do right now to start climbing out of our caves and still protect ourselves and our families as we acclimate to this new world.

The plans in the the Vox piece can't be phase 2. It's just not going to happen that fast. Maybe we get there in 3, 5, 10 years, but we need short term ideas that will actually help slowly integrate us into some sort of normalcy post curve flattening. Cranking out hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes  and N95 masks seems like a perfectly fine start. I can't buy any of these currently. Athletic apparel companies could start designing "virus protective clothing", Nike virus glasses, UA CV masks, I don't know. There are relatively easy things to that can be done now or tomorrow to allow us to enter into this new world and live smarter and safer. Yes, this virus is a killer and spreads. A N95 mask costs $3.50 retail and blocks 99% of particles. I get that frontline workers need them now, but at some point expanding production seems like a much easier next step than creating an app, GPS tracking system and some sort of enforcement system.

 
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For me the main concern has always been overwhelming our medical system. It appears as if we have prevented that and can now begin discussing slowly opening back up, with the help of testing.
Not so sure we have accomplished not crashing the healthcare system quite yet. It depends where people live. Some places may still be early in the timeline, so it may look like they only have a few cases but two weeks from now those places could see an explosion. So this month the problem areas are NYC, NO,  CHI, DET, ATL, BOS but next month it could be DC, PHI, HOU, DEN, and LV. 

And for places that are reaching the peak soon, the burnout rate for healthcare professionals will be very high as they won’t be willing to deal with a second wave of more chaos. 

 
For now they are...

The other fallout from this is going to be a refocusing of sourcing from America. I don't think there is any doubt folks will be more than willing to spend an extra $1, $20, $100 depending on what you are buying if has a Made In America sticker on it. Including your oranges & bananas. 
That is plausible, but we're going to have to see how this all shakes out.

 
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