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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

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That data about comorbidities in nyc finally put forward some better details. 

I was actually shocked how the breathing problems were much lower in representation than I would have figured. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Where did your wife and kid go!   ;)

That's impressive.  I thought I had been doing pretty good but I'm no where close to that.
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It’s the toddler. If I didn’t have him I’d go to the store and do a few things generally considered ok. But leaving him without a dad is my greatest fear. I’ve seen the doctor more in the last few years than I did the previous 10 years. 

 
beer 30 said:
Not to mention the piles that seem to accumulate in parking lots after non-descript white male w/perfect teeth and his wife (not named Karen) leave them there as they waltz off to the Range Rover. People suck
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For real? I hate people. Bad enough to run across the new cigarette butt: vape pen remnants.

 
HairyGOATee said:
They should mandate gloves where I'm located. Too many people at the supermarket don't seem to be taking this seriously at all.
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Gloves don’t prevent you from getting or spreading Covid-19. Gloves are a partial substitute for washing your hands. Wash your hands, put on gloves, touch a contaminated surface, take off your gloves, and you have clean hands. But if you touch a contaminated surface with your gloves and then touch other objects you have spread the contamination. Touch your face and you may have infected yourself.

As others have pointed out, mandating gloves will only increase the amount of litter in the parking lots and potentially create a shortage for medical professionals.

 
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Redwes25 said:
According to worldometers we have crossed over 50k deaths and there seems to be no downward trend of cases and deaths which seem just stuck at just under 30k and just over 2k, respectively. Sometimes for each are on other side of that line such as cases yesterday but generally those are our daily numbers. 
 

Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet. 
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The IHME model seems to insist on a symmetric normal-like distribution of cases and deaths but we seem to be holding steady in a linear pattern that would suggest a longer tail. Other countries that are further along have shown this as well. We’re well past the exponential phase but sitting at a linear phase isn’t going to be a great alternative.

If we are indeed opening things up soon that could be a very bad idea. I’d much prefer to see cases and death numbers definitively declining and a national plan rather than this “do what you feel like” approach that’s being endorsed. 

 
Redwes25 said:
According to worldometers we have crossed over 50k deaths and there seems to be no downward trend of cases and deaths which seem just stuck at just under 30k and just over 2k, respectively. Sometimes for each are on other side of that line such as cases yesterday but generally those are our daily numbers. 
 

Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet. 
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Looking at how many is different than looking at percent increase.  The percent increase is going down.  Slowly, but it is going down.  Deaths on the other hand are trailing and should start to have a lower day to day percent increase next week.  (Speaking as the US in whole)

 
Mr. Pickles said:
The IHME model seems to insist on a symmetric normal-like distribution of cases and deaths but we seem to be holding steady in a linear pattern that would suggest a longer tail. Other countries that are further along have shown this as well. We’re well past the exponential phase but sitting at a linear phase isn’t going to be a great alternative.

If we are indeed opening things up soon that could be a very bad idea. I’d much prefer to see cases and death numbers definitively declining and a national plan rather than this “do what you feel like” approach that’s being endorsed. 
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It has to be so difficult to model this in a way that encapsulates the entire country. If you look at a Times Square webcam, or the view of Las Vegas last night during the draft, it's totally empty.  

In my TN suburb of Nashville, the streets are full.  Traffic is not as bad as usual, but grocery stores are full, people are at drive-thrus, etc.

How does a model account for that?  How is each city handling it?  It's just so incredibly hard to calculate with so many differences across the country.

 
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I've been thinking about something. A couple weeks ago I saw a report showing that when they analyzed test results from various patients they concluded that the virus got the East Coast via Europe and to the West Coast via Asia. Now obviously things are going much better on the West Coast as far as cases and deaths per 1m residents. Is it possible there really are multiple strains and the one that came via Europe is deadlier?

 
Mr. Pickles said:
The IHME model seems to insist on a symmetric normal-like distribution of cases and deaths but we seem to be holding steady in a linear pattern that would suggest a longer tail. Other countries that are further along have shown this as well. We’re well past the exponential phase but sitting at a linear phase isn’t going to be a great alternative.

If we are indeed opening things up soon that could be a very bad idea. I’d much prefer to see cases and death numbers definitively declining and a national plan rather than this “do what you feel like” approach that’s being endorsed. 
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That model is garbage and agree that plateau is shown elsewhere but was hoping for some downward trend basically a month on social distancing 

 
Pennsylvania has some nice breakdowns on the DOH website:

Positive Cases By Age:

0-4 <1%

5-12 <1%

13-18 1%

19-24 6%

25-49 39%

50-64 28%

65+ 25%

Hospitalization Rate of confirms (incidentally, PA has 21% positive test rate, so make your own assumption on if/how the denominator needs to be adjusted):

0-29 2%

30-49 5%

50-64 10%

65-79 20%

80+ 21%

Nursing home positives : 5679 residents + 673 staff (17% of total PA cases)

Nursing home deaths : 849 (60% of total PA deaths)

 
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shader said:
It has to be so difficult to model this in a way that encapsulates the entire country. If you look at a Times Square webcam, or the view of Las Vegas last night during the draft, it's totally empty.  

In my TN suburb of Nashville, the streets are full.  Traffic is not as bad as usual, but grocery stores are full, people are at drive-thrus, etc.

How does a model account for that?  How is each city handling it?  It's just so incredibly hard to calculate with so many differences across the country.
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That seems like a poor comparison - Times Square and Vegas aren't comparable to your local grocery store.  People are going to grocery stores everywhere.  I think modeling is impossible though like you are saying.  I still don't know what our governors are thinking (yours and mine and the SC gov).  I'm still just hoping people stay put.

 
AAABatteries said:
That seems like a poor comparison - Times Square and Vegas aren't comparable to your local grocery store.  People are going to grocery stores everywhere.  I think modeling is impossible though like you are saying.  I still don't know what our governors are thinking (yours and mine and the SC gov).  I'm still just hoping people stay put.
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SC is always looking to be relevant when it comes to sedition-ish stuff. It's in their blood from the Civil War.

 
jamny said:
jobarules said:
Politician Spock said:
Yesterday 100 people per hour died from COVID-19 around the world.

In about two weeks it could be 1000 people per hour... with the NYC area leading the way.  
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You're telling me this post came before mitigation?
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It was a ridiculous and unnecessary post at the time and hasn't aged well.
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To be fair social distancing has done a great job and mitigated many thousands of deaths.  Would we have got to a peak of 20,000 per day?  That's hard to say.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
There was a lot of talk in here a couple of weeks back about hydroxychloriquine being a game changer.  Looks like that was misguided.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/fda-issues-warnings-on-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-after-serious-poisoning-and-death-reported.html
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No not really. This study didn’t include Zinc which was also recommended. Z pack, hydro AND zinc. This was the combo and it needs to be given as close to onset as possible. As far as it being unsafe that’s just plain old BS. This has been on the market for 30 years.  They are saying in this warning don’t let people take this at home.  It still hold a lot of hope IMO. 

 
boots11234 said:
No not really. This study didn’t include Zinc which was also recommended. Z pack, hydro AND zinc. This was the combo and it needs to be given as close to onset as possible. As far as it being unsafe that’s just plain old BS. This has been on the market for 30 years.  They are saying in this warning don’t let people take this at home.  It still hold a lot of hope IMO. 
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Well it's being prescribed by doctors for use at home so obviously a lot of people have run with this.  Whether they figure out the right cocktail to make this work or not, may be still getting studied but the gun has been jumped.  

 
parasaurolophus said:
That data about comorbidities in nyc finally put forward some better details. 

I was actually shocked how the breathing problems were much lower in representation than I would have figured. 
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Is this linked upthread? If not, can you post it?

Regarding the presentation of breathing problems, two things about comparing current U.S. outcomes to China's early outcomes is that (a) the air quality in industrialized areas of China is abysmal, and (b) China is about at 1960s level of awareness regarding smoking tobacco.

 
boots11234 said:
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
There was a lot of talk in here a couple of weeks back about hydroxychloriquine being a game changer.  Looks like that was misguided.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/fda-issues-warnings-on-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-after-serious-poisoning-and-death-reported.html
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No not really. This study didn’t include Zinc which was also recommended. Z pack, hydro AND zinc. This was the combo and it needs to be given as close to onset as possible. As far as it being unsafe that’s just plain old BS. This has been on the market for 30 years.  They are saying in this warning don’t let people take this at home.  It still hold a lot of hope IMO. 
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There's a significant difference between saying "hydroxychloriquine could be a game changer" and "this cocktail of drugs including hydroxychloriquine could be a game changer"...like a REALLY significant difference.  The study linked here seems to be a push back on the first, which was said many times in press conferences.  Whether it holds any validity will be established with time.  I'm willing to bet we have a vaccine before we have valid, peer reviewed work on the cocktail of drugs though.  Just too many variables to control with the cocktail approach IMO.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Right, but it is being prescribed by doctors
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If we didn't have these press briefing circus events, there would be little talk of this drug. The guy was trying to express hope over treatments, screwed up the delivery, and now it's just an unnecessary controversy. The briefing yesterday was probably the worst. I wish he would stop.

 
Doug B said:
Spidey sense about this site? Total scam, right?

Can't find isopropyl alcohol anywhere ... in person or online :(  
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Replying to my own post:

The retailer above purports to be a print shop (stationery, business cards, direct mail, etc.) in the Atlanta metro area. Is there any reliable way I can vet this online offer? The price ain't great compared to pre-COVID prices, but I've seen much worse out there.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Doug B said:
Spidey sense about this site? Total scam, right?

Can't find isopropyl alcohol anywhere ... in person or online :(  
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Is 80% really updated guidance? 
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No -- that's horse manure. Speaks poorly of the site ... but I'm in a bind.

Thought rubbing alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, etc. would bounce back around when paper products did. Thought I had enough at home, but others in the household use up the alcohol in the house instead of just washing their hands.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Doug B said:
Is this linked upthread? If not, can you post it?

Regarding the presentation of breathing problems, two things about comparing current U.S. outcomes to China's early outcomes is that (a) the air quality in industrialized areas of China is abysmal, and (b) China is about at 1960s level of awareness regarding smoking tobacco.
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Link
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I must have misunderstood you. When you wrote:

"I was actually shocked how the breathing problems were much lower in representation than I would have figured."

... I thought you meant that relatively few COVID patients in NYC presented with COVID-caused breathing problems.

What you must've meant (correct me if wrong) was that pre-existing conditions related to breathing (e.g. asthma, COPD, etc.) didn't seem to be notable comorbidities among NYC COVID patients.

 
Doug B said:
What you must've meant (correct me if wrong) was that pre-existing conditions related to breathing (e.g. asthma, COPD, etc.) didn't seem to be notable comorbidities among NYC COVID patients.
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Yes. This is what I meant. They arent statistically insignificant of course, but just much lower than i thought.  

 
Doug B said:
No -- that's horse manure. Speaks poorly of the site ... but I'm in a bind.

Thought rubbing alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, etc. would bounce back around when paper products did. Thought I had enough at home, but others in the household use up the alcohol in the house instead of just washing their hands.
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Do you have any distilleries in your area? 

We have a couple of craft distilleries that are making hand sanitizer here in KC. If you have those you may check and see if they are making any.

 
Doug B said:
No -- that's horse manure. Speaks poorly of the site ... but I'm in a bind.

Thought rubbing alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, etc. would bounce back around when paper products did. Thought I had enough at home, but others in the household use up the alcohol in the house instead of just washing their hands.
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Everclear. 

 
-fish- said:
DrJ said:
The vast majority of deaths have come from old people and those with pre existing conditions.     Everyone else has very close to 0 risk of dying from this.     Not quite 0, but pretty darned close.

My 16 year old daughter is going to work in a grocery store.    Which means she'll be fairly likely to get it IMO.     I'd put her risk of dying at almost 0.    Mine will be a little higher since I'm in my 40's.    But it'll still be fairly close to 0.      In my estimate, the odds that I've already had this are dramatically higher than those odds.   
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I'm 52.   In my life, I've never known anyone to be hospitalized for the flu.   I've never known anyone to die from the flu.   In the last week, two otherwise healthy people who I've known for years died.   This week a friend in her late 30s with no underlying health problems was admitted to the hospital after her 02 levels crashed.   Would you mind talking to her  children to tell them her risk of death is almost 0?  Because they can't see their mom.   She can't see them.   She can't talk to them either, since she's been intubated.   Her risk of death is a hell of a lot more than 0.   I'd appreciate it if you'd stop spouting this nonsense.
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Thank you for sharing fish.  I honestly dont know how you are containing yourself when someone makes such baseless and hurtful claims.

I just don't understand some people.  It makes me sad.

 
gianmarco said:
This needs to end:  Denver Health Executives Get Bonuses 1 Week After Workers Asked To Take Cuts
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After the story came out, this is what the CEO is now doing to help.

The hospital CEO said as of April 20, she was waiving her own accrual of paid time off, giving back two days every pay period from her personal time off bank, and was also using her accrued PTO to cover three days every pay period, saving the organization money. She said she planned to do that for a three-month time frame. 

Wow, don’t hurt yourself. 

 
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Louisiana FINALLY started reporting recoveries today (or presumed recoveries***, but pretty solid numbers IMO). 

26140 total cases

14927 presumed recovered

----------

11213 active cases

They still haven't released updated test numbers yet, but from my own figures based on the last updated totals, I think we are still hovering between 16-18% total number of positives statewide (out of 142000+ test results). 

***A person is presumed recovered if 

1) it has been more than 14 days, since he/she tested positive and he/she is not currently in the hospital or deceased (when hospital status is known), or 
2) it has been more than 21 days, since he/she tested positive and he/she is not deceased (when hospital status is unknown).  

 
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