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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

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ladies in scrubs on the trains ... i used to be all  :wub:   now it's 100%  :unsure:

three on my ride right now, all in surgical masks. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
What the hell is manna?  All I know is that buffets are awesome.  And so would seeing nana come down from heaven.  :shrug:
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Manna

Manna (Hebrew: מָן‎ mān, Greek: μάννα; Arabic: اَلْمَنُّ‎), sometimes or archaically spelled mana is, according to the Bible, an edible substance which God provided for the Israelites during their travels in the desert during the 40-year period following the Exodus and prior to the conquest of Canaan.
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Exodus 16:4 4 Then said the LORD unto Moses: 'Behold, I will cause to rain bread from heaven for you; and the people shall go out and gather a day's portion every day, that I may prove them, whether they will walk in My law, or not.

 
Global cases steadily increasing: https://i.imgur.com/CmBiHIE.png

However, the upside is much of that appears to be Japanese Cruise cases (now at 160+). There doesn't appear to be any other countries with pockets of growth. :thumbup:  
 

This DOES make me wonder about last week's reports of India with thousands of suspected cases. I wonder if it's an inability to test properly yet? 

 
Mr. Ham said:
I’m very dubious. Read today on Reddit that some researchers think incubation can be as long as 24 days.

Lack of cases is India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with fluid borders, doesn’t mean the disease isn’t spreading. It almost certainly is. More likely it isn’t being tested for and detected. 

Something doesn’t smell right. In fact, it feels a little Spanish Flu all over. Singapore, like Spain in 1919, appears to be transparent in publishing details of their cases and is seeing steady growth in confirmed cases. I’d look more to their growth rate and watch carefully over the next week, and use that to extrapolate what’s likely happening elsewhere. 

I gather most governments, including our own, have protocols in place to protect against panic and economic loses that doesn’t rely on transparency. Have to start thinking about what we would be likely to see, and how we would know, if this thing is steadily spreading outside of the public’s eye.

Fact 160 have been infected on a cruise ship should be a worrying indicator of its virility. Think that’s not happening in places like India and Indonesia, where people go to markets where everyone is touching shoulders?

Not convinced yet by what’s published that this is really hitting a plateau.
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It's China, we all know they aren't reporting correct numbers and are, in fact, now trying to decrease numbers through slight of hand definition changes.

From @[icon]'s article:

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As the Wuhan virus continues to spread across China unabated, Beijing authorities on Sunday evening (Feb. 9) announced that the city is being locked down.

As the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) continues to rage across China, 80 cities have been locked down under "closed-off management" (封閉式管理) measures. On Sunday, Beijing authorities announced an "Epidemic prevention and control notice of strict closed community management" and declared that the city is going under lockdown (封城), reported the Beijing Daily.

Look, I know there is no love loss from Taiwan reporting on Chinese affairs but I tend to believe them a helluva lot more than Chinese reports of 900 dead. That's such a bull#### number and everyone knows it. Add a zero or maybe even two at this point. How many people are in 80 cities in China?

 
Some dank stuff on Twitter if you look.  It's so hard to tell what's real and fake not gonna bother posting it.   Just imagining how quick we would go into meltdown if the whole US just said stay inside for three weeks. K bye.  

 
Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus from a glass-half-full perspective, 4 out of 5 people infected apparently get only mild cold symptoms (CNBC 2/10/2020😞

10:34 am: WHO officials say 15% of all patients get pneumonia
The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care.
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This makes me think A LOT of people carried this around in December and early January, say, and just shrugged it off. It also brings any mortality rate calculation into question -- we just don't have even a vague read on the number of carriers going back to, say, Dec. 1 2019. Or maybe even a little earlier.

 
22:10: 2,097 new cases and 103 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)

17:56: 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates. (Source)

16:00: 4 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)

14:20: 2 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)

12:30: 2 new cases in Singapore. (Source)

09:46: 4 new cases in the United Kingdom. (Source)

05:13: 65 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 135. (Source)

01:01: 1 new case in Malaysia. (Source)

 
Mr. Ham said:
I’m admittedly twitchy about these things.

But I don’t like a few things I read today from legit medical or scientific sources. Incubation could be 24 days. Models would expect to see at least 3x patients who didn’t present symptoms when they passed through borders, compared to those fagged. Where are these cases?

As previously mentioned, there should be dozens or hundreds of cases in Indonesia and Malaysia. Where are the cases in India, after reports of some 2,500 suspected?

Also, numbers coming out of China may not show slowing of transmissions. It’s likely they’ve hit the maximum testing capacity. This leads me to a tingly feeling that we’re not getting transparent data from a number of sources that may be trying to protect the public good, but indicate a problem that can only be suppressed so long.

My gut tells me this is about to go the wrong direction in a big way... meaning next 1-2 weeks, 3 tops.

Talk me down, please.
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I think it's pretty clear that China is manipulating the numbers, which would be consistent with the first-hand reports of health care workers who are saying that they are limited in the number of cases they can report as confirmed each day, as well as their limitations in testing capacity due to shortages of reagents.   

 
-fish- said:
I think it's pretty clear that China is manipulating the numbers, which would be consistent with the first-hand reports of health care workers who are saying that they are limited in the number of cases they can report as confirmed each day, as well as their limitations in testing capacity due to shortages of reagents.   
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Still not clear we shouldn't be tracking Singapore and the boat closer than China.  For all we know they euthanize people 

 
Either China are absolutely lying through their teeth (in what would be a truly a despicable lie that puts millions at risk), or their extreme quarantine procedures are working very well.  Their official numbers have been falling the last 3-5 days.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I’m admittedly twitchy about these things.

But I don’t like a few things I read today from legit medical or scientific sources. Incubation could be 24 days. Models would expect to see at least 3x patients who didn’t present symptoms when they passed through borders, compared to those fagged. Where are these cases?

As previously mentioned, there should be dozens or hundreds of cases in Indonesia and Malaysia. Where are the cases in India, after reports of some 2,500 suspected?

Also, numbers coming out of China may not show slowing of transmissions. It’s likely they’ve hit the maximum testing capacity. This leads me to a tingly feeling that we’re not getting transparent data from a number of sources that may be trying to protect the public good, but indicate a problem that can only be suppressed so long.

My gut tells me this is about to go the wrong direction in a big way... meaning next 1-2 weeks, 3 tops.

Talk me down, please.
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It’s difficult because we have a built-in normalcy bias that makes us want to believe the numbers the govt provides.  We yearn for the truth and for data. Based on that, there’s no reason yet to panic. 
 

But then it’s China.......and all the reasons above seem legit and don’t seem like Alex Jones-ish info.  

Tough one

 
So it can possibly have an incubation period of up to 24 days and can stay alive on surfaces for up to 9 days.  Great googly moogly.

 
Don Hutson said:
So it can possibly have an incubation period of up to 24 days and can stay alive on surfaces for up to 9 days.  Great googly moogly.
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This is people misunderstanding statistics.  Instead of looking at glass half full side of that, which says the median incubation period is 3 days, people looked at the long tail of the sigma with confidence interval to eek out that 24.  People see what they want to see.

 
culdeus said:
This is people misunderstanding statistics.  Instead of looking at glass half full side of that, which says the median incubation period is 3 days, people looked at the long tail of the sigma with confidence interval to eek out that 24.  People see what they want to see.
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They are now saying the average lifespan on surfaces is 4-5 days with a high end of 9 days.  The high end of 24 days means that all quarantine efforts will have to be extended at least that long.

 
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culdeus said:
This is people misunderstanding statistics.  Instead of looking at glass half full side of that, which says the median incubation period is 3 days, people looked at the long tail of the sigma with confidence interval to eek out that 24.  People see what they want to see.
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I was told there would be no math!

 
Mr. Ham said:
Where did you see median incubation of 3 days?

Was discussing my concerns with my wife, and she offered the optimistic view that someone was interviewed from the cruise in Japan, who said several of those that were tested positive had no idea. They had no symptoms whatsoever. To me, that’s terrifying. They were exposed, and could be going about life, traveling, touching elevator buttons and so on more weeks before they present a sniffle or a cough. 

Again, what has me twitchy is the fact that we’re not seeing cases we should be seeing. Lots of them. And after about six weeks of this in Wuhan, things got massively out of hand. I honestly hope the numbers indicate it’s dying down and not that serious, but there are quite a few specialists on record say essentially that the horse has left the barn. I’m now wondering if the full implication of what that mean is being absorbed, and what that’s going to look like when it presents itself in earnest. Are the numbers outside of China holding steady reassuring, or are they breeding false confidence? Are we being given all the data?
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The same study that said it could run out to 24

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1

 
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Mr. Ham said:
Where did you see median incubation of 3 days?

Was discussing my concerns with my wife, and she offered the optimistic view that someone was interviewed from the cruise in Japan, who said several of those that were tested positive had no idea. They had no symptoms whatsoever. To me, that’s terrifying. They were exposed, and could be going about life, traveling, touching elevator buttons and so on more weeks before they present a sniffle or a cough. 

Again, what has me twitchy is the fact that we’re not seeing cases we should be seeing. Lots of them. And after about six weeks of this in Wuhan, things got massively out of hand. I honestly hope the numbers indicate it’s dying down and not that serious, but there are quite a few specialists on record that the horse has left the barn. I’m now wondering if the full implication of what that mean is being absorbed, and what that’s going to look like when it presents itself in earnest. Are the numbers outside of China holding steady reassuring, or are they breeding false confidence? Are we being given all the data?
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The 3 day average incubation period came from Chinese scientists.  Hard to put much trust into that number.  But even if some have a 3 day incubation period, it is good news that the US doesn't have a whole slew of secondary cases which we would have had by now.

 
Don Hutson said:
The 3 day average incubation period came from Chinese scientists.  Hard to put much trust into that number.  But even if some have a 3 day incubation period, it is good news that the US doesn't have a whole slew of secondary cases which we would have had by now.
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I don't think this is true, Chinese researchers have been able to share data widely, they captured the genome and published it without retribution on what? December 3rd?  

There are materials, fluids, and kits moving freely between countries here. There isn't reason to doubt these figures on the whole.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Also says this, “Pneumonia is the most common complication suffered by patients at 79.1 percent.”

Don’t like that a minority (43%) do not experience fever as an early symptom. Sounds like even if the incubation period is on average 3 days, the point at which one would remove themselves from the population would be later than that. 

Look, I can’t control it and am getting this out of my system. We’ll see, but there are several things that don’t bring me comfort. 
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check the edit, I got the right link in there on the edit

 
Doug B said:
Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus from a glass-half-full perspective, 4 out of 5 people infected apparently get only mild cold symptoms (CNBC 2/10/2020😞

This makes me think A LOT of people carried this around in December and early January, say, and just shrugged it off. It also brings any mortality rate calculation into question -- we just don't have even a vague read on the number of carriers going back to, say, Dec. 1 2019. Or maybe even a little earlier.
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It sounds like if the patient makes it through the 1st-2nd week and starts to improve, then all is good. But if the symptoms stay severe in the 2nd to 3rd week, then it's possibly fatal. Even with a strong immune system it could lead to a cytokine storm and then organ failure.

It's like this virus is potentially deadly to not only those with a weakened immune system but also those with an immune system that is too strong. 

 
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I was in Philippine Immigration extending my visa on Feb 6th.  A guy came in with major sniffles.  I could hear him coming from 20 feet away by the sound of mucous percolating in his nose.  There were 5 of us sat at a 6 top table and he sat with us.  I glanced over and saw that he had a Chinese Passport.  I got up immediately and stood as far away as possible.  One by one every other person at the table got up and moved.  I kind of felt bad for the guy, but if you're sniffling every 3 seconds, at least blow your nose.  He literally walked past a bathroom before he sat with us.  He could have blown his nose and washed his hands for Pete's sake.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Also says this, “Pneumonia is the most common complication suffered by patients at 79.1 percent.”

Does that mean of the patience who exhibit complication, 79% get pneumonia, or of the 1k or so in the study, 79% got pneumonia? Big difference, and not very artfully worded. 
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The WHO scientist I quoted upthread has the incidence of pneumonia at 15% of infected patients.

I am not comfortable using Taiwan News as a source here. WHO scientists, CDC researchers, run through major Western media outlets ... that’s what I’m putting stock in right now.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Also says this, “Pneumonia is the most common complication suffered by patients at 79.1 percent.”

Does that mean of the patience who exhibit complication, 79% get pneumonia, or of the 1k or so in the study, 79% got pneumonia? Big difference, and not very artfully worded.

Don’t like that a minority (43%) do not experience fever as an early symptom. Sounds like even if the incubation period is on average 3 days, the point at which one would remove themselves from the population would be later than that. 

Look, I can’t control it and am getting this out of my system. We’ll see, but there are several things that don’t bring me comfort. 
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You should watch some Dr. John Campbell on youtube, he does a daily review, sometimes more than one,  of medical journal literature as it comes online and offers his experience in epidemiology.  

 
Mr. Ham said:
This is just it. We expect this out of China, and so we look to other countries for indications of what to actually expect. And there should be many, many cases that we aren’t seeing in many places. It’s tempting to see this as good news, as if transmission varies greatly elsewhere for some reason. Then you see the ship and realize, no, it’s highly contagious. And then you ask yourself again, where are the cases we’d expect in places with massive population densities: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, amongst others?
 

Even here, they identified a few people coming off of trips to China. With an incubation period of up to 24 days, there should be other cases coming up from fellow travelers. Happened on the cruise ship, right? Didn’t happen on a 747 or airport lounge, or Uber?
 

The cases are almost undoubtedly there. Why aren’t we seeing them?

Something is amiss. I’d feel much better if half a dozen new cases were popping up daily in the US.
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Ham, no offense, but this is the definition of conspiracy theory. Look, I can totally get behind China lying. That’s a country that is built on propaganda.  But if all the other countries are lying too...then I mean what’s the point of even tracking numbers.  At some point we have to take some numbers at face value.

Personally my strategy has been to go to https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

I have no idea what that site is, but they seem to do a great job of keeping stats updated by country.

I’ve been tracking all non-China infections. 277 4 days ago, 394 today. Those are the numbers I’ll be watching.  

 
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Doug B said:
The WHO scientist I quoted upthread has the incidence of pneumonia at 15% of infected patients.

I am not comfortable using Taiwan News as a source here. WHO scientists, CDC researchers, run through major Western media outlets ... that’s what I’m putting stock in right now.
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The study is linked in the news report.  

 
culdeus said:
The study is linked in the news report.  
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I’m looking at it now — it hasn’t yet undergone peer review. Questions like the one Ham asked will be raised by other researchers. It will also be more informative to compare results of several similar studies — will they agree in aggregate? What patterns will emerge?

EDIT: For what it’s worth ... this study did classify well over 80% of the cases as non-severe. That lines up with WHO info released earlier today.

EDIT 2: This study also gives “severe pneumonia” cases occurring at 15.7%, about the same as WHO’s given rate for any severity of pneumonia.

 
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Mr. Ham said:
I’d mentioned many pages back that I was curious if my company would pull out of Mobile World Congress, which is February 24-27 in Barcelona. It’s well over 100k attendees, most international. I’ve gone a few times, but had no occasion to this year. Regardless, we spend millions as does everyone who has a stake in any aspect of mobile technologies. My company (will remain nameless) has not yet pulled out, but Ericsson (typically one of the largest presences), Intel, Amazon, Sony and some others have. I expect now that the precedent has been set, it’ll be a lot of dominos falling. Crazy how much of an economic impact that show alone will have based on marketing losses, lost sales, travel, and infusion to the Spanish economy. 
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I work for big oil(100k+ employees), we cut off almost all international travel. I had to cancel a trip to the UK this week.

Although the price of oil is tanking anyways, it could have been a cost cutting measure disguised as health concerns.

 
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