parasaurolophus
Footballguy
How do the deaths break down? ICU cases?Sammy3469 said:
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Here's a sophisticated tool being used to model the CV.
I've spent some time futzing with it and if I've figured it out right (no promises), getting the rate of transmission to 1 or below by the end of March saves roughly 90% of the lives we'd lose if we didn't get it done until the end of April. The cost of waiting is absolutely enormous.
And it's hard to tell what "best case" and "worst case" look like without knowing what's real-world achievable in terms of slowing the rate of transmission, so the range of outcomes is enormous.
Not sure if .5 (each infected person infects .5 people on average) or 1.0 (each infected infects one other) or some other number is the input to use once we get serious about fighting this nationwide, but just for illustration (again, I have NO IDEA what's realistic)... getting it to .5 by the end of March gets us out of this with something like 30k fatalities. Waiting until April and getting it down to 1.0 results in ~1MM eventual deaths.
Regardless of whether I'm using this exactly right or my input ranges are realistic, I think the takeaway here is that despite the wasted months, we still have a big opportunity to impact what happens over the next 6-12 months.
DO YOUR PART
I've spent some time futzing with it and if I've figured it out right (no promises), getting the rate of transmission to 1 or below by the end of March saves roughly 90% of the lives we'd lose if we didn't get it done until the end of April. The cost of waiting is absolutely enormous.
And it's hard to tell what "best case" and "worst case" look like without knowing what's real-world achievable in terms of slowing the rate of transmission, so the range of outcomes is enormous.
Not sure if .5 (each infected person infects .5 people on average) or 1.0 (each infected infects one other) or some other number is the input to use once we get serious about fighting this nationwide, but just for illustration (again, I have NO IDEA what's realistic)... getting it to .5 by the end of March gets us out of this with something like 30k fatalities. Waiting until April and getting it down to 1.0 results in ~1MM eventual deaths.
Regardless of whether I'm using this exactly right or my input ranges are realistic, I think the takeaway here is that despite the wasted months, we still have a big opportunity to impact what happens over the next 6-12 months.
DO YOUR PART
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Blast away but I feel like if this was in the WWII era, we'd be told we can leave our homes and return to work and daily lives at noon tomorrow provided we come out wearing masks. Then the radio would provide step by step instructions on how to make them out of t-shirts and yarn. Those caught in public without masks would get escalating fines/punishment and we'd somehow emerge fine as a nation.
Fast forward to today - If rather than mailing checks pushing 1 trillion dollars and keeping us from working and moving around in public, would we be better served investing our resources in supplying masks to everyone? Keep in mind people are ignoring the stay at home orders all over the country and doing so without masks. I gotta believe that if everyone was wearing masks and washing their hands, we'd get through this. And I think people would gladly accept having to wear masks for the foreseeable future if it meant we could carry on working and living. I know the masks aren't perfect, but if literally everyone was wearing them?
Fast forward to today - If rather than mailing checks pushing 1 trillion dollars and keeping us from working and moving around in public, would we be better served investing our resources in supplying masks to everyone? Keep in mind people are ignoring the stay at home orders all over the country and doing so without masks. I gotta believe that if everyone was wearing masks and washing their hands, we'd get through this. And I think people would gladly accept having to wear masks for the foreseeable future if it meant we could carry on working and living. I know the masks aren't perfect, but if literally everyone was wearing them?
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DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Statorama said:
that's awesome.-fish- said:
but.....this is what will happen: cease and desist. patent violation. hasn't been vetted by the fda, etc. sued out of existence, people keep dying. hate to be negative, but this is the world we live in
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Trump eyeing 2 week lockdown except for grocery stores and pharmacies..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/breaking-trump-eyes-2-week-quarantine-only-drug-grocery-stores-open
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/breaking-trump-eyes-2-week-quarantine-only-drug-grocery-stores-open
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
yeah, here in CA, out HOA gardeners came through today.Rich Conway said:
makes no sense.![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
It's telling that the reporter didn't cite a single source for the lab-coat-door-knock claim.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Anyone, please enlighten me. You can't continually wear a mask, correct? I t has to be replaced at some point, right? I'v e got the majority of a box of N-95s from a mold remediaton effort we did on our building. I work in DC and have seen what I believe is a misuse of masks. Hell, I imagine I could attempt using an ex girlfriend's b cup bra or her g string as a defense
Neo
The Dude minds
skol asylum
Footballguy
I bought one years ago to try wear when spraying weeds. I couldn't breathe through the damn thing. No way I could wear it for a few minutes let alone all day.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
Rirruto
Footballguy
My state closed down bars/breweries among other things, but now they can have drive thrus and deliver. I guess there are some upsides to a horrible global crisis.
Correct me if I'm wrong , but isn't the government assuming liabilty for any resulting conseuquences for industrial masks?
skol asylum
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
mine has authorized the sale of mixed drinks, to go. global pandemic? go ahead and drink and drive. weird times
CurlyNight
Footballguy
LA Times.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has announced the deployment of California National Guard members to help distribute food to isolated and vulnerable residents during the pandemic.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has announced the deployment of California National Guard members to help distribute food to isolated and vulnerable residents during the pandemic.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Well ####, for a trillion dollars lets get some better masks and throw in some gloves while we're at it. I don't care how uncomfortable any of 'em are if it allows me to get back to normal life.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
In CA, you can get cocktails delivered.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/wine/amp/California-you-can-now-get-cocktails-delivered-15146289.php
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/wine/amp/California-you-can-now-get-cocktails-delivered-15146289.php
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Wishing you the best. What you just described is why I don't think we can do this on a long term basis. Maybe we can suck it up for 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, but at some point if we can avoid the flooding of our health care system we have to cut the economy back on.
skol asylum
Footballguy
I agree. At some point the pressure will be to great and they will have to do it. Hopefully we'll have flattened the curve enough to make a difference, and even then we will have enough social distancing and other learned mannerisms is help slow the spread.
Mile High
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
BNO Newsroom
NEW: Colombia announces 'nationwide quarantine' from Wednesday through April 13 in fight against coronavirus.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Worth watching the video in this article to get a sense of what is going on Italy. I think harsh measures are needed. Yes, it is going to hurt the economy but what you see in this video is going to hurt more.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Laurie Garrett
@Laurie_Garrett
1 hr
The last time I heard this many ambulance sirens piercing the NYC night was 9/11 . #COVID19 is slamming us...8000 cases and counting, hospitals full, #Trump declared us a national emergency zone. Things turned radically today....our surge has started.
She's a good one to follow on Twitter for NY..
@Laurie_Garrett
1 hr
The last time I heard this many ambulance sirens piercing the NYC night was 9/11 . #COVID19 is slamming us...8000 cases and counting, hospitals full, #Trump declared us a national emergency zone. Things turned radically today....our surge has started.
She's a good one to follow on Twitter for NY..
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Absolutely awful.
Yeah, most intensivists don't get rattled or stressed. For one of them to say that is legit scary. The sheer volume is just overwhelming, day after day.
We better hope we can control this before it gets to that point here.
[scooter]
Footballguy
Officially, N95 masks are only designed to be used once, for a short period of time (like 30 minutes max).
Unofficially......you can use them over and over again until they fall apart. Protection levels will gradually decline, but it's still better than a bandana.
What are harsh measures in your opinion?
Short of locking everyone in their home and maybe allowing one person to go get groceries once a week, it's not going to make a difference.
[scooter]
Footballguy
Harsh measures are not possible without widespread testing, IMO.
Even if we lockdown the entire country, the virus will re-appear the moment we re-open the airports, the shipyards, and the border crossings.
MTskibum
Footballguy
The problem is hypertension and heart disease can be hereditary and have nothing to do with diet or exercise. My dad is 62, runs 3-4 marathons a year, and is extremely healthy except he has high blood pressure and had a 98% block of the widowmaker a couple years ago.
I am only 38, I exercise daily, 6'1" 165, greatly cut down my sodium intake by not eating any processed foods, and yet I still have 130/85 which is pre-hypertension. I cannot reduce my blood pressure further no matter what I try.
I am not sure if i would fall in the "preexisting" conditions if this got me, but my dad certainly would and it is no fault of his own.
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Between that and all the temperatures checks, I think China was able to corral this. Problem is that we sent all our manufacturing to China so we can't make what we need and we don't have people available at 15 cents an hour to stand in front of the stores and check temperatures.
Assuming this isn't shtick, it is about the worst possible time to move your 401k from stocks to money funds. Unless you are already post 59 and are planning to draw in the next few years for income.
Penguin
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
NY State or NY City? Based on the tweet, I was assuming it meant the latter.
ETA: further posts clarified
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