*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

[proteus126]

A week ago, I was expecting NYC to be bad, but with the testing being behind there was no way to know just how bad. But now that testing is catching up to that of Italy, we can start to compare the two...

It is far worse than I thought. It is catastrophic bad.  

Yep.  Urban cores highly dependent on public transit, and the dense suburbs along the main transit lines, are apt for getting pounded.

 

[Flying Elvis]

Those with little kids should check out the YT stream of author Mo Willems. He started a lunch time live doodle and plans to continue it through the school shut down.

Episode 1 link:

https://youtu.be/RmzjCPQv3y8

My kids had fun following along. 

 

[otb_lifer]

Yep.  Urban cores highly dependent on public transit, and the dense suburbs along the main transit lines, are apt for getting pounded.

this ^

the tentacles are gonna reach far into Jersey and the Island and Yonkers and Westchester and Conn. as well. 

the numbers for the greater metropolitan area are gonna be steep - we're just seeing the tip, i'm afraid. 

 

[Otis]

A week ago, I was expecting NYC to be bad, but with the testing being behind there was no way to know just how bad. But now that testing is catching up to that of Italy, we can start to compare the two.

Italy went into lockdown on March 9th, and on that day they had 152 cases per million of population. Yesterday began day 0 of New York City's lockdown, and they are starting the lockdown at 772 cases per million. That is FIVE TIMES MORE than what Italy had when they went in to lockdown.

After 12 days of lockdown Italy was up to 886 cases per million. If NYC experiences the same growth rate during the first 12 days of lockdown, NYC will be up to 4500 cases per million on April 2nd. That would be about 9,675 people needing hospitalization in NYC alone. 

It is far worse than I thought. It is catastrophic bad.  

Sort of, like, what people have been saying for a week or two now.  Like, a week before NYC shuttered.  

I understand there was a lot of skepticism at the start of this.  I was one of the skeptics.  But there was a point a couple of weeks ago when this was no longer open to reasonable debate.  It was serious, really serious. And still our federal government was on tape delay and still downplaying it; still NYC was open for business.  

Ultimately I believe you couldn't stop this, no matter what you did.  Any reasonable and practical response was necessarily going to underestimate the gravity of it, and this was going to be a mess.  But that week or so delay will end up making this all an order of magnitude worse.

I think the end of March is going to be ugly.  April is going to be brutal.  Hopefully May we start to see a leveling off and a slow resolving.  And, maybe I'm being way too optimistic here, but hopefully in June or July we start to get back a little normalcy. 

 

[shader]

Spain is the new Italy. Death rate starting to climb.  1,000 deaths in Madrid alone.  But their “doubling rate” is also starting to fall.  Quarantines will work eventually.  At what cost, who knows.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sort of, like, what people have been saying for a week or two now.  Like, a week before NYC shuttered.  

I understand there was a lot of skepticism at the start of this.  I was one of the skeptics.  But there was a point a couple of weeks ago when this was no longer open to reasonable debate.  It was serious, really serious. And still our federal government was on tape delay and still downplaying it; still NYC was open for business.  

Ultimately I believe you couldn't stop this, no matter what you did.  Any reasonable and practical response was necessarily going to underestimate the gravity of it, and this was going to be a mess.  But that week or so delay will end up making this all an order of magnitude worse.

I think the end of March is going to be ugly.  April is going to be brutal.  Hopefully May we start to see a leveling off and a slow resolving.  And, maybe I'm being way too optimistic here, but hopefully in June or July we start to get back a little normalcy. 

The shuttering isn’t going to stop it. Until everyone who is outside of the home is in full protective gear it will just continue until everyone has had it. 

I went through a drive through yesterday. 12 people inside slinging food and passing it out a window to someone who hands it to youvwho is a couple of feet away. Would have felt safer inside eating

 

[[icon]]

DHS (and others?) issuing "Right to Travel" papers to essential personnel. 

Firsthand: Buddy's wife is chemist for lab servicing USDA and got hers today. Another buddy got his from DHS. 

Some degree of travel restrictions / lockdown likely imminent. 

As an amendment to this; 

Buddy's wife's paperwork looks DHS/Govt issued. 

Fedex is issuing Less official looking "letter-head ish" papers to their key staff now. Here's one another buddy got.

Still unsure if it translates into national lockdown with Certainty, but the fact that a lot of these went out over the weekend seems to indicate a degree of priority/urgency to them. 

We shall see, wanted to share the physical document with you guys though. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Spain is the new Italy. Death rate starting to climb.  1,000 deaths in Madrid alone.  But their “doubling rate” is also starting to fall.  Quarantines will work eventually.  At what cost, who knows.

I don’t think they will unless you are doing medical checks and only allowing people out once a week

 

[parasaurolophus]

Spain is the new Italy. Death rate starting to climb.  1,000 deaths in Madrid alone.  But their “doubling rate” is also starting to fall.  Quarantines will work eventually.  At what cost, who knows.

The doubling rates can fall for reasons other than pseudo quarantines. 

 

[[icon]]

Spain is the new Italy. Death rate starting to climb.  1,000 deaths in Madrid alone.  But their “doubling rate” is also starting to fall.  Quarantines will work eventually.  At what cost, who knows.

Does anyone know of a means to calculate r0 from doubling rate? What is it for r3 or r5-ish (like Italy post quarantine)? 

Doubling time of 5-6 days is certainly an improvement but still feels bad if that's "all" an Italian semi-quarantine can do... especially given they're nearly 2 weeks into it.  

 

[shader]

The doubling rates can fall for reasons other than pseudo quarantines. 

Such as? The R0 factor is significantly reduced when people don’t congregate and meet together.  What does “pseudo quarantine” mean anyway?

 

[Terminalxylem]

I dont mean for the disease. China is who gobbled up all the masks and stopped shipping as well. 

They even convinced the lds to send them a plane full. 

Duplicate. Did I mention I'm pissed there isn't enough PPE?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

So what are the “suppression “ methods that these articles say are necessary but never really get into?

 

[shader]

Does anyone know of a means to calculate r0 from doubling rate? What is it for r3 or r5-ish (like Italy post quarantine)? 

Doubling time of 5-6 days is certainly an improvement but still feels bad if that's "all" an Italian semi-quarantine can do... especially given they're nearly 2 weeks into it.  

Well the issue with their quarantine is that they aren’t doing it Chinese-style. In China, if you tested positive you were separated from family.
 

In most places you go home to recuperate and you infect your family.  So yeah, the doubling time lengthens, but you’re still infecting your family.

Perhaps it will take another week or two for the family spreading to stop, and then we will see cases truly start to fall there.  

 

[worrierking]

Yep.  Urban cores highly dependent on public transit, and the dense suburbs along the main transit lines, are apt for getting pounded.

Look at cities like Dallas and Houston that don't have a lot of public transportation.  Very few cases there. 

 

[Cowboysfan8]

As an amendment to this; 

Buddy's wife's paperwork looks DHS/Govt issued. 

Fedex is issuing Less official looking "letter-head ish" papers to their key staff now. Here's one another buddy got.

Still unsure if it translates into national lockdown with Certainty, but the fact that a lot of these went out over the weekend seems to indicate a degree of priority/urgency to them. 

We shall see, wanted to share the physical document with you guys though. 

Who the hell knows really, but is your state “shutdown” yet? 
 

The “local authorities” in the first line is why I’m asking

 

[Tecumseh]

Duplicate. Did I mention I'm pissed there isn't enough PPE?

Had my first experience with reusing PPE last night. Felt pretty f’in gross.

ETA: We’re supposed to save our masks in a paper bag and reuse them on our next shift. I don’t work again for 3 days. Hope they have a new one for me...

 

[The Big Donkey]

Tampa mayor readies for stay at home order

Mayor Jane Castor warned residents on Saturday to brace for an impending “stay-at-home order” in the coming days. If Gov. Ron DeSantis doesn’t issue a statewide order, then one may come from Hillsborough County leaders.

“It will be soon, I would be surprised if it’s not by Monday,” Castor told reporters Saturday. “Time is of the essence.”

Hillsborough County has yet to see the rapid spikes in COVID-19 coronavirus cases that have paralyzed other parts of the country, Castor said, but that’s only because the community has yet to offer large-scale testing to the public.

 

[Politician Spock]

Sort of, like, what people have been saying for a week or two now.  Like, a week before NYC shuttered.  

I understand there was a lot of skepticism at the start of this.  I was one of the skeptics.  But there was a point a couple of weeks ago when this was no longer open to reasonable debate.  It was serious, really serious. And still our federal government was on tape delay and still downplaying it; still NYC was open for business.  

Ultimately I believe you couldn't stop this, no matter what you did.  Any reasonable and practical response was necessarily going to underestimate the gravity of it, and this was going to be a mess.  But that week or so delay will end up making this all an order of magnitude worse.

I think the end of March is going to be ugly.  April is going to be brutal.  Hopefully May we start to see a leveling off and a slow resolving.  And, maybe I'm being way too optimistic here, but hopefully in June or July we start to get back a little normalcy. 

NYC will actually exit this earlier than the rest of the country because they waited too long to respond. The cost of that early exit being 1) the amount of unnecessary deaths resulting from their overwhelmed hospitals; and 2) how much NYC infected the rest of the US. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If NY state were a country onto itself in terms of measuring caseload, it will surpass France within the next 24 hours.

Right now, the concentration of this in the metro NY area is terrifying.  I think the number alone in NYC was 7500+ yesterday.  With the population density there, the healthcare system will get overrun imminently...I suspect then the death rate with rise as not everyone will be able to get care.  This could happen this week.

 

[shader]

If NY state were a country onto itself in terms of measuring caseload, it will surpass France within the next 24 hours.

Right now, the concentration of this in the metro NY area is terrifying.  I think the number alone in NYC was 7500+ yesterday.  With the population density there, the healthcare system will get overrun imminently...I suspect then the death rate with rise as not everyone will be able to get care.  This could happen this week.

The deaths and icu visits are a certainty to explode in NYC.  It’s a waiting game now.  Hopefully the hospitals are preparing but it’s a disaster for NYC.

 

[squistion]

The doubling rates can fall for reasons other than pseudo quarantines. 

 pseudo quarantines?     

 

[Otis]

NYC will actually exist this earlier than the rest of the country because they waited too long to respond. The cost of that early exist being 1) the amount of unnecessary deaths resulting from their overwhelmed hospitals; and 2) how much NYC infected the rest of the US. 

To your bolded point, most everyone I know who lives in Manhattan but had a place out of the city have retreated to those other places. The Hamptons, the Long Island north fork, ski places in Vermont and Colorado, beach houses at the jersey shore or North Carolina. Last week everyone fled. At least one of whom is experiencing symptoms and has been tested (no results yet) — the authorities in North Carolina were not happy with this New Yorker coming down there. So, you may be right, there may end up being a lot of spread just based on everyone evacuating NYC to faraway places. 

 

[Politician Spock]

If NY state were a country onto itself in terms of measuring caseload, it will surpass France within the next 24 hours.

Right now, the concentration of this in the metro NY area is terrifying.  I think the number alone in NYC was 7500+ yesterday.  With the population density there, the healthcare system will get overrun imminently...I suspect then the death rate with rise as not everyone will be able to get care.  This could happen this week.

Sadly, if the media reported this, there would be a wave of people accusing them of fear mongering. 

The truth is NYC is about to experience a situation multiple times worse than Italy has experienced to date. I honestly cannot see any honest and logical reason it wouldn't at this point. It would be a miracle if it doesn't.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I get what you're saying......but if HIV had infected 300,000 people in its first 3 months of existence, I don't think anyone would be saying that it's overboard to wipe down toilet seats.

Like I said, you'll likely never be able to say with 100% certainty. But good hand hygiene trumps all the surface disinfecting. If practiced fastidiously, it obviates most of the other stuff IMO. Moreover, nothing we know about respiratory viruses (including SARS-CoV-2) suggests packages and mail are relevant fomites - basically the surface needs to have enough virus which can readily transfer to your hands, then mucous membranes. If I grabbed a package damp with saliva/mucus, then rubbed my eyes immediately, sure. But a regular package/piece of mail? Wash your hands after handling it if you're worried, and save the Lysol for general household cleaning.

 

[Politician Spock]

To your bolded point, most everyone I know who lives in Manhattan but had a place out of the city have retreated to those other places. The Hamptons, the Long Island north fork, ski places in Vermont and Colorado, beach houses at the jersey shore or North Carolina. Last week everyone fled. At least one of whom is experiencing symptoms and has been tested (no results yet) — the authorities in North Carolina were not happy with this New Yorker coming down there. So, you may be right, there may end up being a lot of spread just based on everyone evacuating NYC to faraway places. 

Tons of people who live in the rest of the country visit NYC for business and pleasure. Anyone who has done that in the past week has a good chance of having brought to their homes throughout the country.

If you know anyone who has traveled to NYC in the past week, stay the #### away from them. 

 

[tamales]

A week ago, I was expecting NYC to be bad, but with the testing being behind there was no way to know just how bad. But now that testing is catching up to that of Italy, we can start to compare the two.

Italy went into lockdown on March 9th, and on that day they had 152 cases per million of population. Yesterday began day 0 of New York City's lockdown, and they are starting the lockdown at 772 cases per million. That is FIVE TIMES MORE than what Italy had when they went in to lockdown.

After 12 days of lockdown Italy was up to 886 cases per million. If NYC experiences the same growth rate during the first 12 days of lockdown, NYC will be up to 4500 cases per million on April 2nd. That would be about 9,675 people needing hospitalization in NYC alone. 

It is far worse than I thought. It is catastrophic bad.  

You keep saying this. Lockdown for NY essentially started Monday when schools and restaurants were closed and most people started working from home. But keep ignoring us real NYers who said it's been a ghost town all week. 

 

[mr roboto]

Do we have any more recent data or evidence discussing the efficacy of treatment drugs like the antimalarial drug and others that have been talked about in the last few days? If we do find therapy drugs that are somewhat effective at treating late stage patients that could make a significant difference on the hospital burdens and need to use ventilators but I’m just not sure if we know if that’s been effective or not.

 

[Otis]

Sadly, if the media reported this, there would be a wave of people accusing them of fear mongering. 

The truth is NYC is about to experience a situation multiple times worse than Italy has experienced to date. I honestly cannot see any honest and logical reason it wouldn't at this point. It would be a miracle if it doesn't.

Can you move people to hospitals outside the city?  I suppose no because then you’re just widening the spread?  I just don’t see how this is going to go down without them taking bus loads of infected to hospitals 1 or 2 hours outside of the city where they can be treated. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Yeah yeah, I've heard the story.   

Have you been to a hospital lately?

 

[Politician Spock]

You keep saying this. Lockdown for NY essentially started Monday when schools and restaurants were closed and most people started working from home. But keep ignoring us real NYers who said it's been a ghost town all week. 

NYC did not do last Monday what Italy did. San Francisco did.

 

[[icon]]

Who the hell knows really, but is your state “shutdown” yet? 
 

The “local authorities” in the first line is why I’m asking

Agreed Local's should have been all over this. Some have only been "slow". Most, worse. 
 

TN is predictably bad in the "bible will save us, science be damned" idiocy of the Deep South.  Memphis FINALLY forced bars/restaurants to close except curbside/delivery on Wednesday or so. Many nonessential companies still forcing employees to come into work. 

Of course it's business as usual just across the border in N Mississippi where the hillbillies still think this is an anti-trump conspiracy. A buddy posted on Facebook a pic of him at Como steakhouse at a table with 14 folks. Looked packed all around them too. ####### morons. I know some of them live/work in Memphis. 
 

We are going to need a national order or this isn't going to work.. especially in rural areas. 

 

[Politician Spock]

Can you move people to hospitals outside the city?  I suppose no because then you’re just widening the spread?  I just don’t see how this is going to go down without them taking bus loads of infected to hospitals 1 or 2 hours outside of the city where they can be treated. 

I'm a math guy. I really have no idea what options are available to manage surplus of patients. All I know is that they will have a surplus of patients that even Italy is not experiencing. 

 

[[icon]]

You keep saying this. Lockdown for NY essentially started Monday when schools and restaurants were closed and most people started working from home. But keep ignoring us real NYers who said it's been a ghost town all week. 

Except for people going sightseeing for a mission critical bagel & coffee, Right? 

 

[RUSF18]

NYC did not do last Monday what Italy did. San Francisco did.

It wasn't a full lockdown but I don't know anyone who has been in the city since last Thursday the  12th, and I'm just across the border in Hoboken. 

 

[ffjunk]

Sort of, like, what people have been saying for a week or two now.  Like, a week before NYC shuttered.  

I understand there was a lot of skepticism at the start of this.  I was one of the skeptics.  But there was a point a couple of weeks ago when this was no longer open to reasonable debate.  It was serious, really serious. And still our federal government was on tape delay and still downplaying it; still NYC was open for business.  

Ultimately I believe you couldn't stop this, no matter what you did.  Any reasonable and practical response was necessarily going to underestimate the gravity of it, and this was going to be a mess.  But that week or so delay will end up making this all an order of magnitude worse.

I think the end of March is going to be ugly.  April is going to be brutal.  Hopefully May we start to see a leveling off and a slow resolving.  And, maybe I'm being way too optimistic here, but hopefully in June or July we start to get back a little normalcy. 

The issue is a lot of people were skeptics. The message came out strong to distance yourself and stay in.  If the government came out too strong the potential for mass hysteria would've been huge and if it worked a lot of people would've said it wasn't needed. I believe we are going to see a shelter in place everywhere soon. For how long I don't know. But there is obviously going to be an increase in positive cases reported because of all the testing that is getting done. The younger crowd will be able to handle it. The elderly will not and the hospitals aren't able to handle it all. I don't have an answer except for the government to get back to their ABC's and prepare more for these large events. Each state needs to stockpile medical necessities. We are not prepared at all. 

 

[[icon]]

As info I have donated 75% of my masks.

20pk > parents at risk in FL 

2x20pks > Friend who's charge nurse in local hospital that's starting to get hit good. 

I have ~16 remaining. Gf and I each used one recently, then gave two to a buddy who's elderly father is at risk. 
 

Have half face plastic 3M p100 respirators w 6 sets of filters if this is prolonged. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Does anyone?    That's part of the problem. 

Infectious disease physicians and epidemiologists?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Can you move people to hospitals outside the city?  I suppose no because then you’re just widening the spread?  I just don’t see how this is going to go down without them taking bus loads of infected to hospitals 1 or 2 hours outside of the city where they can be treated. 

There has been talk this week if I remember correctly of a navy hospital ship off the coast of New York and another off the coast of California. I believe they were talking about having other patients stay there so the covid patients could use the hospitals

 

[TheDirtyWord]

NYC did not do last Monday what Italy did. San Francisco did.

Even if they did, the caseload in Italy has increased six-fold since March 9...the deaths have increased ten-fold.

Per capita population of NYC - 28k/square mile.  Italy? 520/square mile.

 

[BobbyLayne]

In the brief time I was out yesterday (came back around noon), there were quite a few people walking around the East Village. There was a group chat last night amongst some friends, they were discussing getting together in Central Park but fitting six feet apart.



Since one fled to NC midweek and another flew to TN yesterday, I was able to persuade them to just do a Zoom. I now have three Zoom groups today (1030, 1 & 2) with different groups from church.

Not planning on going out again until Saturday unless it’s to cross the street to get groceries.

 

[Politician Spock]

Even if they did, the caseload in Italy has increased six-fold since March 9...the death rate has increased ten-fold.

Per capita population of NYC - 28k/square mile.  Italy? 520/square mile.

Yep. Even by adjusting the "lookdown" from Saturday to Thursday based on anecdotal observation, NYC is still two to three times worse than Italy.  

 

[MAC_32]

You keep saying this. Lockdown for NY essentially started Monday when schools and restaurants were closed and most people started working from home. But keep ignoring us real NYers who said it's been a ghost town all week. 

Monday was too late. What happened at bars and restaurants nationwide on Saturday alone, and especially in NYC, will have unquantifiable but dire consequences. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Yeah getting crazy amounts of scripts for it, most for new patients and doctors from outside the area. We were advised by corporate to scrutinize scripts to make sure they are for legit purposes and written by doctors within in their scope of practice. We seemed to be getting a lot of ‘I’ve got a friend who is a doctor and I think I need this’ scripts.

First thing I’m gonna do when I get back to work is run a report and make sure our patients who regularly take it get taken care of and triage from there. That is if we are ever able to get some in. It very likely could be the next TP situation with everyone trying to get it. And if it does prove to be helpful, the people who really need it won’t be able to get it.

Jesus, we're not sure it even works. Give it to those with approved indications, then save the rest for hospitalized patients if it pans out.

 

[JaxBill]

Tampa mayor readies for stay at home order

Mayor Jane Castor warned residents on Saturday to brace for an impending “stay-at-home order” in the coming days. If Gov. Ron DeSantis doesn’t issue a statewide order, then one may come from Hillsborough County leaders.

“It will be soon, I would be surprised if it’s not by Monday,” Castor told reporters Saturday. “Time is of the essence.”

Hillsborough County has yet to see the rapid spikes in COVID-19 coronavirus cases that have paralyzed other parts of the country, Castor said, but that’s only because the community has yet to offer large-scale testing to the public.

I like this quote. My current pet peeve is the overuse of the term "martial law". Yeah, you will be inconvenienced.  But these "lockdowns" aren't martial law.

"This is not going to be a police state,” Castor said. “We live in the greatest city in the nation and we have citizens that stand up and do what is necessary in times of crisis. We are asking all of our citizens to be responsible and do the right thing.”

“Let’s make kindness contagious,” Castor said.

 

[Politician Spock]

Monday was too late. What happened at bars and restaurants nationwide on Saturday alone, and especially in NYC, will have unquantifiable but dire consequences. 

Bars and restaurants aren't even the worst issue for NYC. The virus can live on the surfaces inside the trains for up to 72 hours. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Hmmm

Friend of mine is a former model monkey for Goldman Sachs, he’s been doing some charts & sending the link to his colleagues (e.g., it’s restricted or else I would share it.) He’s an I-banker, not an epidemiologist.

He is projecting 100 million cases in the USA by the third week of April. Presumably this does not account for the effects of social distancing, shelter in place, et al.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Not sure what Freud has to do with this, but there is plenty of blame to go around for the PPE shortage.

Freud? I dont know what that means. 

The PPE shortage hit a long time ago. The number of ordinary citizens gobbling up masks at that point was small and did not really affect medical supply, at least not in the way some are portraying it. 

The real shortage was caused because china literally bought back tons of masks that they had shipped to us and no longer shipped them to us. They were getting pallets upon pallets shipped back to them. Some guy stocking supplies in his basement might go clear the shelves at CVS, but then that CVS never got redelivered because the supply line had been cut already. A month ago Lowes had already discontinued them on their website. They were listed, but said not available online and limited quantity in stores. The LDS church sent a whole plane full of them to China back in january. Those would be nice right now. 

Hospitals knew these things were on backorder before anybody else. What did they do? They went to the media and blamed ordinary citizens buying one day supply for a nurse treating this and claimed they were useless and that people didnt know how to put them on. I mean jesus christ. Its a freaking mask with elastic and a metal piece you bend over your nose. 

This was back in February when all those articles started hitting. 

These things arent hard to make if everybody in America wanted them a month ago(which they should but of course thanks medical folks for convincing the bulk of the population they arent helpful or super complicated), hospitals would be flush with them because tons of businesses would already have adjusted to meet demand. Instead they only now are ramping up because the demand is so high from hospitals and states begging for them. 

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If you want more grease, you dont tell people that their wheel doesnt matter, so they dont need grease and hope you can scoop up the leftovers. 

I mean look at what is happening with hand sanitizer. Distillers all over the country are stepping up and even donating it. A company I used to work for just made 8000 gallons of the stuff to donate and will then start to sell it. They sell isopropyl alcohol for the glass cutting business to some customers that are now shut down. So they can sit on those gallons now or do something with it. 

Why? Because everybody wants it. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He is projecting 100 million cases in the USA by the third week of April. Presumably this does not account for the effects of social distancing, shelter in place, et al.

The math is really easy to work out if you assume no impact from the interventions.

Here's a model that tries to account for those.

 

[tamales]

Except for people going sightseeing for a mission critical bagel & coffee, Right? 

That's takeout and still open AFTER the shutdown. 

#bagelgate