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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

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"you're being asked to sit on your ### and not do anything for a while, you're not being asked to jump in a Higgins boat and head for Omaha beach.  you can do this"

- Anonymous
This is so true.  We all have a ton of food in our pantries, people that are laid off have money coming in, your credit report won't take a hit if you get behind on payments, and families that really need help are about to get a check from the government.  

Watch netflix, read a book, learn something, play with your kids, throw the football, play a 20-year long nfl madden dynasty, do whatever the heck you want.  Just do it at home.  

Unfortunately, this won't happen unless the government demands it, and they aren't.  I just had to run out and I saw full gas stations, car washes, oil change facilities, and of course grocery stores.  

Governor Cuomo has gotten a lot of hype in here, but he said something really dumb about a quarantine today.  He said he didn't know if it would be legal or if it would even help.  Unreal.

 
Not really. If a cure is found that would change a lot about how we could go back to some sense of normal. 
They aren't going to find a cure in the next month.  The next month is when this goes from "really stressed out and overworked doctors in NYC and New Orleans" to full-blown healthcare system disaster.

Sure, if the cure is found, that would be great. I'd love to see a cure for cancer too.

But the cure is such a pointless thing to hope for because there's another thing that would get us back to a sense of normality a month from now. A super strict 4-week quarantine.  That's all that's needed.  That's it.

 
Tired: The people best positioned to ride out an extended shelter-at-home period are the introverts.

Wired: The people best positioned to ride out an extended shelter-at-home period are the guys with shaved heads.
Interested to see how long my hair/beard gets during all of this

 
shader said:
Italy reports 5,974 new cases and 889 new deaths.
This saddens me. What's perhaps worse is that I look at the deaths for France and the UK (both now well over 200/day) and almost think to myself that that's not so bad. Obviously it's terrible but I'm almost become desensitized to "only" a few hundred deaths a day. 

 
Am I off understanding everything is not solved going full quarantine for a month? That is, if we protect 80% (non-essentials) from infection for a month, then go back to BAU, isn’t it just a matter of time for the global spread to catch them and the same spike occurs, just delayed? I guess I understood flattening the curve did not mean eliminating cases, but spreading out unavoidable infections over a longer duration vs all at once. To that end, isn’t something between full quarantine and BAU the answer?
No -- not the same spike. Thinking of it as the difference between:

a) 20 inches of rain in one day

b) 1/2 inch of rain per day over 40 days

 
I just thought I'd point something out using this post.

First, I think some of this frustration is the fact that we can't see what's in front of us. I mean, some places we can see it (Italy, NYC, etc.), but if it's not in front of us, it's harder to see the justification. Unfortunately, I believe that will change for most everywhere soon enough to fix that.

But, the second part that I don't understand as well is this idea that "we can't do this for too long".

Yes, we can. Imagine we were at war with another country that is dropping bombs on a daily basis where you live. Think of many modern day third world countries going through that on a regular basis. Or England in WW2 having to hide in the subways as a matter of life and death. Or the Jews. And that was in a different era without the accommodations we currently have. They didn't have Amazon and Netflix and food delivery. 

Throughout history, large populations and countries even have gone through far worse with far less for far longer. It just seems a bit much that so many people keep saying "we can't do this for too long" when it's only been a couple weeks and the idea of carrying through with this for even a couple months seems impossible. It's not.

Maybe we need to "see" the bombs being dropped and "see" the dead bodies in the street to take this seriously and realize, yeah, I can stay inside for as long as it takes until it's safe for me and for others. I don't know. No one is saying it's comfortable, but it could be A LOT worse. 
Yup. It certainly can be done. We lived through hell for almost 2 years in Iran. No internet, facetime, amazon, food deliveries, home school, netflix or even tv unless you enjoy watching the mullahs. This is nothing. And 0 compensation for losing your job or business. People crying about how tough this is anger me. This is a war, I'd say WWIII. The only way my mom, myself and bro got out on a flight was through underground contacts my aunt had. But they held my dad because he's an engineer. For 3 mo we thought we'll never see dad again. It was beyond awful. And we were/are all US citizens but the government still considered my parents Iranian. 

All I can say is this could be a whole lot worse. Count your blessings it isn't. But as far as the virus is concerned, we have a long way to go and we need to each do our part to not get others infected. 

 
Going by TJ's quote to me above, such a quarantine in the U.S. simply can't be based on voluntary action.

The enforcement actions necessary to force north of 99% compliance ... I just don't think America, collectively, has an appetite for that. And in today's "take a video!" world ... you'd have hundreds of videos on the Internet that would make Kent State look like Disneyland.

There's just no easy answer. America would have to shrug off something essential to its identity to truly enforce a 99+% quarantine among the population.
And that's what frightens me, all the gun owners who in their minds bought them in the first place just in case there ever came a day or time where it "felt" like citizen's rights were being stripped. I think a couple weeks of mostly stay inside orders vs a 4 Week or 8 week Shelter in Place, HARD LOCKDOWN where tree trimmers and construction crews must stay indoors, that's when we will see how much this country can stand...so far the results are not good. If people had not acted like such fools on the beaches and then in boats they wouldn't have issued orders closing them down...and using that as a barometer for what would likely have to happen in order to enforce those actions many seem to desire or are voicing, doesn't seem realistic from where I sit in South Florida. 

 
No -- not the same spike. Thinking of it as the difference between:

a) 20 inches of rain in one day

b) 1/2 inch of rain per day over 40 days
I’m saying if we go full quarantine for a month and then back to BAU. Are we not just delaying spiking spread vs flattening a curve?

 
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Governor Cuomo has gotten a lot of hype in here, but he said something really dumb about a quarantine today.  He said he didn't know if it would be legal or if it would even help.  Unreal.
That's not a bad point in the sense that he probably doesn't want to be the one to command Guardsmen/police to enforce the quarantine at gunpoint.

 
Am I off understanding everything is not solved going full quarantine for a month? That is, if we protect 80% (non-essentials) from infection for a month, then go back to BAU, isn’t it just a matter of time for the global spread to catch them and the same spike occurs, just delayed? I guess I understood flattening the curve did not mean eliminating cases, but spreading out unavoidable infections over a longer duration vs all at once. To that end, isn’t something between full quarantine and BAU the answer?
I encourage you to listen to the NYT podcast from Tuesday or something.  A strict month quarantine done right would, for the most part, kill the virus.  That's just the way it works.  The virus wouldn't have new hosts to infect.  In that 4-week interval you could build up your testing capabilities and hire teams of contact tracing groups to help once the quarantine ends.  

But it has to be done correctly.  Right now all we are doing is slowing down the spread.  Yeah, it's possible this will work long-term, but do you really want to be sitting in your home in this half quarantine state in 4-6 months?  I don't.   I also suspect other poeple are getting antsy and ready to get out.  The issue now is that the USA has a lot more cases than we did 2-3 weeks ago when we all started these half measures.  So back to normal now is much more dangerous.

 
They aren't going to find a cure in the next month.  The next month is when this goes from "really stressed out and overworked doctors in NYC and New Orleans" to full-blown healthcare system disaster.

Sure, if the cure is found, that would be great. I'd love to see a cure for cancer too.

But the cure is such a pointless thing to hope for because there's another thing that would get us back to a sense of normality a month from now. A super strict 4-week quarantine.  That's all that's needed.  That's it.
Not now game. End game. Cripes man.

 
Yup. It certainly can be done. We lived through hell for almost 2 years in Iran. No internet, facetime, amazon, food deliveries, home school, netflix or even tv unless you enjoy watching the mullahs. This is nothing. And 0 compensation for losing your job or business. People crying about how tough this is anger me. This is a war, I'd say WWIII. The only way my mom, myself and bro got out on a flight was through underground contacts my aunt had. But they held my dad because he's an engineer. For 3 mo we thought we'll never see dad again. It was beyond awful. And we were/are all US citizens but the government still considered my parents Iranian. 

All I can say is this could be a whole lot worse. Count your blessings it isn't. But as far as the virus is concerned, we have a long way to go and we need to each do our part to not get others infected. 
I mean seriously we are all joking about the weight we're going to gain during our quarantine.  We are fine.

 
That's not a bad point in the sense that he probably doesn't want to be the one to command Guardsmen/police to enforce the quarantine at gunpoint.
In NYC where civilians and I'm using the term loosely here but civilians were chucking water on police officers just doing their job, imagine tasking them with enforcing lockdown at gunpoint or arrest and now whole families have gathered together and they have a neighborhood nightmare on their hands in a matter of minutes. 

Rioting, Looting, hasn't happened yet but one of these cities that is next is likely to step in that direction IMO. 

NYC will not be the only hot spot, in a couple weeks when they have perhaps peaked, several other cities simultaneously I might add are going to follow NYC and that could make things much much worse than they are at the moment. 

 
 BigJim, here's something I wrote in another thread that I think answers your concern.
 

How does a 30-day lockdown solve anything?  Assume we do that and it works perfectly.  What stops CV from coming over from other countries on day 31?
It's OK if new isolateable cases come in starting on Day 31. IOW, the 30 days off gives America a kind of a do-over -- a chance to institute isolation measures and contact tracing that should have been initiated mid-February.

It's not so much a blanket problem of "having cases". It's having cases running wild in the background. A month pretty much burns out those "wild cases". On Day 31, you catch them as they come in as best you can (yes, some will be missed in real time ... but hopefully only a small number of asymptomatics).

 
But the cure is such a pointless thing to hope for because there's another thing that would get us back to a sense of normality a month from now. A super strict 4-week quarantine.  That's all that's needed.  That's it.
Why this isn’t well understood by now is baffling.

Stay at home. Self isolate like you have it and that the next person you see will get it from you and die. And that person is your mom/grandmom. 

We could already be at 10 days into a 30 day lockdown with a defined end-date established. Yet we still have people thinking “it’s just a NY thing”. That’s just prolonging the inevitable, it’s literally making it worse.

If anything NY is actually going to come out of this better, relatively speaking, because they are going through it now and taking it seriously. Meanwhile people in other locales are still going to restaurants and carrying on as normal.

 
I encourage you to listen to the NYT podcast from Tuesday or something.  A strict month quarantine done right would, for the most part, kill the virus.  That's just the way it works.  The virus wouldn't have new hosts to infect.  In that 4-week interval you could build up your testing capabilities and hire teams of contact tracing groups to help once the quarantine ends.  
I’ll have to check that out because I’m not really understanding how this kills a virus that is spreading through the globe, understanding after a month of quarantine we will never stop global travel fro touching us. Maybe it kills the virus the US momentarily, but nothing is really preventing re-emergence.

for the record, I’m by no means in the itching to get back to BAU camp. To the contrary, I think we should forget about school and heavy attendance events until the fall, generally isolate/WFH as much as possible, and basically do our best to tread water for several months.

 
In NYC where civilians and I'm using the term loosely here but civilians were chucking water on police officers just doing their job, imagine tasking them with enforcing lockdown at gunpoint or arrest and now whole families have gathered together and they have a neighborhood nightmare on their hands in a matter of minutes. 

Rioting, Looting, hasn't happened yet but one of these cities that is next is likely to step in that direction IMO. 

NYC will not be the only hot spot, in a couple weeks when they have perhaps peaked, several other cities simultaneously I might add are going to follow NYC and that could make things much much worse than they are at the moment. 
I mean people in subdivisions with 2000-3000 sq foot houses can easily shelter in place and store a month's worth of food. I wonder about that ability for people in small apartments in big cities to do this though. 

We are stocked here at our place, but we have another grocery pickup scheduled on Monday just to stock up on toiletries and such. 

 
30 days of not contacting other people would reduce the R0 (transmission rate) below 1 which basically stops the virus from spreading in its tracks. That’s not even a Covid-19 thing, that’s a rate of transmission/math thing. 

This isn’t some new revelation. It’s been said in this very thread for 2-3 weeks now, and we’re just on a typical message board. C’mon people.

 
I mean people in subdivisions with 2000-3000 sq foot houses can easily shelter in place and store a month's worth of food. I wonder about that ability for people in small apartments in big cities to do this though. 

We are stocked here at our place, but we have another grocery pickup scheduled on Monday just to stock up on toiletries and such. 
AMEN!!! That really is a huge point. I have a good sized condominium but my freezer isn't very big and we don't use or freeze a lot of things, mostly fresh produce and fresh meats/fish. A lot of the non perishables I bought are still here like pasta n sauces.  

 
 BigJim, here's something I wrote in another thread that I think answers your concern.
 
Ahh, I see. I think the conditions for this to work is what I’m not accepting as realistic (our current government doing something with that time vs proclaiming it solved).

 
Just found out some great folks (even if they are LSU fans) in my wife's mardi gras organization are dealing with this virus.  Doesnt sound good either as he has some other health issues.  They were in the process of moving back home to Louisiana and this virus got a hold of him.  I'm not one to flippantly put this stuff out there but if any of you could spare anything in these uncertain times, it would be much appreciated.  Such a great family with 2 fantastic college age kids.  Hitting much closer to home now....

https://fundrazr.com/21dob2?ref=fb_88t6g2_ab_0ghRG8iDzpL0ghRG8iDzpL

 
I’ll have to check that out because I’m not really understanding how this kills a virus that is spreading through the globe, understanding after a month of quarantine we will never stop global travel fro touching us. Maybe it kills the virus the US momentarily, but nothing is really preventing re-emergence.
The hope is that we are on better footing to handle re-emergences than we were for the initial emergence.

 
Question if it hasn't been discussed...

POLICE...I am reading some areas where perhaps 20% of the Force is CV-19 positive and in quarantine...is that a good thing to reveal to the general public or potential criminals? 

It's a concern, they are human like all of us and the more they are exposed the more at risk all of them are and the more they can spread it when they are out on patrol just doing their normal jobs. Now expand that to Firefighters, Paramedics, ER Docs who don't have a cushy private practice they can just close up for a few weeks, these folks are in a brutal situation. 

If you happen to get into any situation involving any of these people, I would use the upmost respect and understand they have a way tougher job at the moment. These people and some others deserve a special hazard pay or bonus for coming in a continuing to work and protect everyone. 

 
I mean people in subdivisions with 2000-3000 sq foot houses can easily shelter in place and store a month's worth of food. I wonder about that ability for people in small apartments in big cities to do this though. 

We are stocked here at our place, but we have another grocery pickup scheduled on Monday just to stock up on toiletries and such. 
550 sqft here in Paris and we've been locked down almost two weeks with another two-plus more to go. Our kitchen is the size of a walk in closet of one of these mcmansions BUT if you're used to small living it's not so bad. More density means smaller living space but also more stores within walking distance. So far I have yet to experience toilet paper shortage or anything else and we go out every couple of days for things as we do have limited storage.

Should be no problem for most in big cities with small living areas.

 
This has no relevance to anyone in this thread but me, but I just learned that a guy on our street has the virus.  And that the family was letting their kids play with other kids in our neighborhood park until Wednesday of this week.  And, most relevant to me specifically, one week ago the post office accidentally delivered my Amazon package to them, and the wife brought my misdelivered package over and left it on my porch.

 
Gawain said:
He's giving a bad look to the name Gawain 😉

I posted this to Reddit on a throwaway, but wanted to put it here as well:

Throwaway for obvious reasons.

I manage a warehouse of about 100 people. Two weeks ago my director's spouting off that there's no reason to take any protective actions. I can't get permission to pull the communal coffee pot that almost every employee touches on a daily basis. I have several folks out for quarantine and HR is unwilling to share any information. I can't even get guidance as to how to code these folks when I'm entering time. Guys are starting to see sick - unpaid, because they have used up their paid sick time and don't want to use personal.

As a union shop, it's unclear how far I can push a guy that is at work, but shouldn't be. I had a guy inside coughing, who swore up and down that it was just a cold. My boss stays in his office and his boss has been on site for 45 minutes max since his proclamation that "it's not even a flu" two weeks ago. Meanwhile, I'm putting on my managers that they have to try to disinfect every piece of communal equipment in the entire building.

Corporate and HR won't put anything in writing. Non-union staff got raises pulled, while business over the past two weeks has been up Y/Y.

The timeclocks are a tremendous source of clustering. I've been begging to go back to time sheets for three weeks. No dice. Hand sanitizer is scarce, masks are non-existent. Once I have a confirmed, its only a matter of time before 60% of my crews are sick.

I get that cases need to move and that morale is going to be down, but the lack of communication and the overall response is appalling.

And it's only going to get worse. I live in an area that hasn't been hit hard yet, but if the modelling is true, it is only a matter of time before I see spread.

I am quarantining my self (imperfectly, but better than nothing) from my wife and kids. I'd quit tomorrow if I had health insurance coverage...and then I think about how much worse it must be at a bigger DC. I think about my last job where the entire office has been working from home for three weeks. And I think that I have to continue trying to do the little that I can for the people I manage. Breaking up clusters, reminding folks to wash their hands, defending the production drop against the analysts that are going to start pushing for layoffs as early as next Wednesday.

It was a heck of a lot easier in 3PL management.

I hope no one that works for me dies.
Thank you for the work you are doing, without question things would be worse at your office and warehouse without the efforts you have made.

Real world reports are valuable to help people see what's really going on out there.

Your situation is likely very representative for most DC type businesses that are currently operating - if there's one thing that's universal, it's human nature.

In regards to trying to estimate how much flattening of the curve is likely, factoring in human nature is paramount.

 
550 sqft here in Paris and we've been locked down almost two weeks with another two-plus more to go. Our kitchen is the size of a walk in closet of one of these mcmansions BUT if you're used to small living it's not so bad. More density means smaller living space but also more stores within walking distance. So far I have yet to experience toilet paper shortage or anything else and we go out every couple of days for things as we do have limited storage.

Should be no problem for most in big cities with small living areas.
Thanks for posting. How do you find adherence to the lockdown is going there? Your perspective is very valuable and I hope you are doing well and can post here more often because you bring a unique experience which is our future.

As you can likely tell we are having a somewhat difficult time with adherence to a lockdown here and NYC is facing a huge problem, including scorn from other parts of its own country.

 
tamales said:
Yeah I don't do any of that when I go food shopping. If I get it I get it
I couldn't in good conscience suggest it's OK to make a non-essential run to HD without recommending some 'best practices' in terms of protecting yourself and others.  

 
This has no relevance to anyone in this thread but me, but I just learned that a guy on our street has the virus.  And that the family was letting their kids play with other kids in our neighborhood park until Wednesday of this week.  And, most relevant to me specifically, one week ago the post office accidentally delivered my Amazon package to them, and the wife brought my misdelivered package over and left it on my porch.
I would say it's relevant to a lot more folks than just you.

What was in the box that was delivered? 

 
This has no relevance to anyone in this thread but me, but I just learned that a guy on our street has the virus.  And that the family was letting their kids play with other kids in our neighborhood park until Wednesday of this week.  And, most relevant to me specifically, one week ago the post office accidentally delivered my Amazon package to them, and the wife brought my misdelivered package over and left it on my porch.
Keep the faith. 

My wife’s friend from work just got admitted to the hospital and is getting worse by the day. A woman in her 20’s with two little kids. No health issues. She sits 50 feet from my wife. 
 

MEANWHILE, there is a block party going on today a few doors down from my house. The whole neighborhood is there. People having a grand old time. Tons of kids. Adults bringing over food. The music is so loud, I can’t even hear my TV. I’d call the cops, but someone from the police force is co-sponsoring the party. I am beyond angry. 

 
This has no relevance to anyone in this thread but me, but I just learned that a guy on our street has the virus.  And that the family was letting their kids play with other kids in our neighborhood park until Wednesday of this week.  And, most relevant to me specifically, one week ago the post office accidentally delivered my Amazon package to them, and the wife brought my misdelivered package over and left it on my porch.


Again.....people suck and are stupid. And because of that, those of us that follow the basic guidelines get screwed.  None of this surprises me at all.   People are the worst.

One of my neighbors (I live on a cul-de-sac with 10 units) sent an email yesterday to let everyone know that they'd gotten someone else's delivery from Whole Foods. For some reason, they felt it necessary to open the package (we know this because the email included a list of every item in it)

So now they've brought the package into their house, opened it...... and touched everything in it.....Someone's food delivery.....and they thought this was a good idea.....

 
Again.....people suck and are stupid. And because of that, those of us that follow the basic guidelines get screwed.  None of this surprises me at all.   People are the worst.

One of my neighbors (I live on a cul-de-sac with 10 units) sent an email yesterday to let everyone know that they'd gotten someone else's delivery from Whole Foods. For some reason, they felt it necessary to open the package (we know this because the email included a list of every item in it)

So now they've brought the package into their house, opened it...... and touched everything in it.....Someone's food delivery.....and they thought this was a good idea.....
Maybe they were worried some stuff needed to be frozen or refrigerated? 

 
My county has 100 "reported" cases.  Just drove to store. 

Car wash: full

Oil Change place: full

Grocery stores: obviously full

Traffic: 75% of a typical Saturday

Chick-Fil-A: full

I mean, I know quarantines are happening, but not here.

 
Maybe they were worried some stuff needed to be frozen or refrigerated? 
I get that....but again....priorities.  Priority # 1, 2 and 3 should be "stay away from everyone and stop the spread of this".  I'm making that sacrifice and I just expect everyone else to do the same.  If that means your fish tacos go bad, I'm ok with that (and everyone else should be too)

 
rogwadd said:
I feel this.  I'd heard that declaration  and found on CDC that there's no evidence of any harm from ibuprofin.  On my second trip out for supplies, I realized I had no pain/cough and cold medication, so I stocked up.
I've seen enough concern about ibuprofen and C19 to consider avoiding it unless that's not possible.

It will take a long time for any link between ibuprofen and C19 to be proven or disproven, so might as well be extra careful now even if ultimately it wasn't warranted.

But I'd also take it if there were no other options.

 
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I get that....but again....priorities.  Priority # 1, 2 and 3 should be "stay away from everyone and stop the spread of this".  I'm making that sacrifice and I just expect everyone else to do the same.  If that means your fish tacos go bad, I'm ok with that (and everyone else should be too)
Seems a little weird to be worried about people touching food. If that is truly a concern you better start growing your own. 

 
I would say it's relevant to a lot more folks than just you.

What was in the box that was delivered? 
This:lmao:    Mr. krista really likes them, and I thought they'd be a great treat for him while quarantined.

We have been taking deliveries directly into the garage, disposing of the outside box into the recycling bin, wiping down the inside contents, and then hand-washing/sanitizing before touching anything else or coming back in the house.  I'd wondered if that was overkill, but now I'm glad we've done it.  Hopefully that will take care of any issue here.

 
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Why this isn’t well understood by now is baffling.

Stay at home. Self isolate like you have it and that the next person you see will get it from you and die. And that person is your mom/grandmom. 

We could already be at 10 days into a 30 day lockdown with a defined end-date established. Yet we still have people thinking “it’s just a NY thing”. That’s just prolonging the inevitable, it’s literally making it worse.

If anything NY is actually going to come out of this better, relatively speaking, because they are going through it now and taking it seriously. Meanwhile people in other locales are still going to restaurants and carrying on as normal.
I dont think  those are many of those locales but I could be wrong

 
This has no relevance to anyone in this thread but me, but I just learned that a guy on our street has the virus.  And that the family was letting their kids play with other kids in our neighborhood park until Wednesday of this week.  And, most relevant to me specifically, one week ago the post office accidentally delivered my Amazon package to them, and the wife brought my misdelivered package over and left it on my porch.
google michael rappaport psa.  kids are harbingers of death.  my kid has not interacted with another human, other than my wife and me, for 2 weeks.  her best friend, 4 houses down?  nope.

oh....thops.   tanner said he'll take the cats.

 
Yeah, I have a fridge (ordered in very early March) being delivered and hooked-up tomorrow...I'm honest-to-God nervous.  I figured I'll remove almost everything from the counters, keep my distance, have the rest of the family upstairs, and wipe down absolutely everything after they leave.

I should be ok....right?  RIGHT!?!? :scared:

ETA:  I swear if the dude coughs or even clears his throat, I may honestly let out a high-pitched scream.

 
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