*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)

[Redwes25]

Korea is a much better gauge, it is 2.8% if you compare dead/recovered.

1.7% if you just take cases/death.  Either way it has risen a lot since the under 1% level, which is scary news.  

 

[shader]

1.7% if you just take cases/death.  Either way it has risen a lot since the under 1% level, which is scary news.  

South Korea remains the best case scenario and what will likely happen if the hospitals aren’t overrun in future waves.

 

[Redwes25]

Update on Italy from Worldometers.  Scary stuff but also interesting info on CFR.

Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19  would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

 

[Weebs210]

I ain't kiddin', GB. My oven really is on the blink    

You've been pretty helpful to me over the last few weeks so if you give me more details I can see what I can find. Like what specifically are you trying to do? Hard reset on it?

 

[Moe.]

Apolitically speaking, this is where President Trump's "new nationalism" or "American greatness" vis a vis economic protectionism is designed to specifically help with short-term national economic crises. If the "new nationalism" wants to really step up, now is the time. That's not my opinion. Pandemics and war are exactly what it is designed to be effective in solving. The ramifications are up for the user reading this to decide whether or not this is a net benefit or detriment. 

Here is what 3M had to say. I'll go with detriment.

The Administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets. There are, however, significant humanitarian implications of ceasing respirator supplies to healthcare workers in Canada and Latin America, where we are a critical supplier of respirators. In addition, ceasing all export of respirators produced in the United States would likely cause other countries to retaliate and do the same, as some have already done. If that were to occur, the net number of respirators being made available to the United States would actually decrease. That is the opposite of what we and the Administration, on behalf of the American people, both seek.

 

[nirad3]

Not here because my fecal cloud has been lingering.

Lingering Fecal Cloud is the name of my screamo cover band.  

 

[Soulfly3]

received an email from my employer that we will be "tested" each morning prior to coming into the office, starting monday (we are a skeleton staff of about 10 in an office usually with 140-160 at any time)

they didnt elaborate what that meant, but it's a govt office. 

 

[bigmarc27]

I sure hope this isn’t correct and represents an over-exaggeration.  If China’s numbers aren’t accurate, you can forget everything you thought you knew about death rates 

Dude, China is lying. It’s what they do. There’s no way they shot off like a rocket and then just stopped it. 

 

[BassNBrew]

received an email from my employer that we will be "tested" each morning prior to coming into the office, starting monday (we are a skeleton staff of about 10 in an office usually with 140-160 at any time)

they didnt elaborate what that meant, but it's a govt office. 

Dang. Surely means another suspension for Josh Gordon. 

 

[Doug B]

received an email from my employer that we will be "tested" each morning prior to coming into the office, starting monday (we are a skeleton staff of about 10 in an office usually with 140-160 at any time)

they didnt elaborate what that meant, but it's a govt office. 

Honestly ... I could deal with this becoming commonplace in public life. Got a fever? No movies, restaurants, work, etc.

 

[Soulfly3]

Dang. Surely means another suspension for Josh Gordon. 

my sincerest hope is he runs on the field w a joint in his mouth

 

[rockaction]

my sincerest hope is he runs on the field w a joint in his mouth

I inherited him on a dynasty squad. No lie.

I haven't dropped him. 

2013!

 

[Doug B]

I ain't kiddin', GB. My oven really is on the blink    

You've been pretty helpful to me over the last few weeks so if you give me more details I can see what I can find. Like what specifically are you trying to do? Hard reset on it?

Will PM when I get a minute. Yeah, it's absolutely an issue with the electronic controls (it displays an error code, which I Googled). The interior of the oven itself (ingniter, burners, etc.) is in good shape and was maintenanced in November 2018.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

I ain't kiddin', GB. My oven really is on the blink    

i replaced the board that runs all the electronics on my oven.  it's not too hard.  what's wrong with it?

 

[prosopis]

I have failed my father when it comes to being a handy man lol. 

You have forgotten the face of your father.

 

[IMAX 3D]

I retired from my job at the age of 37 the first week of February. I had enough money to travel the world (which was my goal) before I turned 40. I've been to many places but still had a few on my list, most were open ended tickets to Sweden, Croatia, Australia. Now I'm starting to look at how my money is managed and not allowed to travel. Fun. But this is so depressing. I was living off of stocks I've bought as far back as 2008. Those stocks aren't producing enough to keep my lifestyle up either. I sold my apartment in Vegas because paying for health insurance has become more important now

The idea was I'd take 3 years to travel and then just consult or start my own firm ("semi-retired"'). I'm not in good health and just wanted the rest of my passport to be filled up. 1st world problems to be certain, but it's been a drain on my mental health. A single guy with wanderlust and ready to go and gets tripped up by this is difficult to get out of your head/ 

 

[Doug B]

I ain't kiddin', GB. My oven really is on the blink    

i replaced the board that runs all the electronics on my oven.  it's not too hard.  what's wrong with it?

That's what I think the fix is going to have to be.

Except for replacing igniters, the oven's been working like a champ since 2006 (came with the house we bought). The owner's manual is copyrighted 1997, so it's a little older than I thought it was. The model is GE 24 inch Built-In Gas Oven JGRP17BEW4BB. Here's a photo if it helps.

Anyway ... over the last month, it's been throwing an "F3" code on the display immediately after preheating and reaching temperature. Maybe one time out of five, you can get past preheating with no error code, and it will cook like normal. Usually, though ... it'll throw the code and shut the burner off.

Broiling mostly works ... but do it too long and that "F3" pops up and kills the burner.

Googling seems to suggest swapping out "the board". Need to see what that entails. But anyway ... since all the gas elements and such work fine ... I was hoping it was kind of a "software issue" and that maybe I could just "restart" the oven somehow. Preferably without taking it out the wall to unplug it (did this once before to fix a gas leak, major PITA and needed another set of hands).

EDIT: Here's an online article about the "F3" error in GE ovens:

The "F3" error codes flashes on a GE oven and stops all current operations. The code can become frustrating, especially when a manual does not list the problem. The solution is a small part repair that will save money when compared with replacing your oven.

Function

When "F3" error code flashes, a small part known as the oven temperature sensor has encountered an error and fails to work anymore. According to Repair Clinic, the error means that a circuit has been exposed or broken.

 

[beer 30]

I sure hope this isn’t correct and represents an over-exaggeration.  If China’s numbers aren’t accurate, you can forget everything you thought you knew about death rates 

You seriously think China's numbers are accurate? You? Thought you had some sense in this thread but here we are. I know you were taking some heat about your stance on China yesterday but c'mon man 

 

[shader]

Update on Italy from Worldometers.  Scary stuff but also interesting info on CFR.

Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19  would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

5 million seems impossible. I reject that based on everything we know.  Usually this type of information turns out to be inaccurate or unverifiable.  Sure they are definitely not accurate with their numbers, but this info seems outlandish, to say the least 

 

[DA RAIDERS]

@Doug B being wall mounted makes it harder.  hopefully the board is right up top and you don't have to take it out.  

 

[shader]

You seriously think China's numbers are accurate? You? Thought you had some sense in this thread but here we are. I know you were taking some heat about your stance on China yesterday but c'mon man 

I honestly don’t care whether I take heat or not, nor do I know if their numbers are accurate.  I’m open either way. I think I prefer the security of thinking that the WHO document and their analysis of this virus (based on China) is accurate. But I could be wrong.  My opinion really isn’t relevant.

 

[shader]

Dude, China is lying. It’s what they do. There’s no way they shot off like a rocket and then just stopped it. 

Why would that not be possible?  Do you think it’s possible for New York and the USA to get this under control?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

After weeks of acting as if it deliberately wanted to make the covid-19 pandemic worse, the FDA will now allow the importation of KN-95 masks.  Better late than never, but the FDA must be abolished and re-imagined from scratch when this is over.

 

[Doug B]

@Doug B being wall mounted makes it harder.  hopefully the board is right up top and you don't have to take it out.  

Might not need a new board after all:

Prevention/Solution

A new oven sensor needs to be purchased. They can be found at many local repair shops or online at websites like Parts Wizard. GE has their own specific model that also works in other brands of ovens.

I would bet the parts dealer that sells the igniter would have one of these, too. Just need to find out where this part is and hope it's not too hard to access and get tools around.

EDIT: Bah ... the manual doesn't even mention "oven sensor" or "sensor" :(   Gotta keep Googling, maybe check YouTube.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I sure hope this isn’t correct and represents an over-exaggeration.  If China’s numbers aren’t accurate, you can forget everything you thought you knew about death rates 

"IF", that's one way to put it I guess.

FYI, their case numbers were fudged as well.

 

[bigmarc27]

Why would that not be possible?  Do you think it’s possible for New York and the USA to get this under control?

Sure but things will dissipate and trail off, China turned the faucet off overnight. 

 

[SFBayDuck]

It's been like 3-4 weeks.  They aren't setup to educate at home.  You have to give these underpaid educational systems a chance to figure out what to do.

Kids are going to survive.  They have summer every year and don't fall apart. 

And if a parent is worried about their kids, spend an hour with them every night.  One solid hour with your kids teaches them more than they learn in a full day in school, guaranteed.  What subjects are they learning?  If they are learning about the Civil War, find them some Civil War videos (Ken Burns).  If they are learning trigonometry, find them a youtube series that probably explains it better than the actual trigonometry teacher does.

I think "suffering educations" is way down the list of important things right now and with a bit of work, those obstacles can be overcome.

https://www.khanacademy.org/ is great for supplementing (or in some cases replacing) what your kids should be learning.  They have courses across all subjects from preschool all the way up to standardized test prep for SAT, LSAT, GMAT, etc.  

My daughter has used this for the past few years if she's having trouble with a homework topic, especially in math.  Luckily her high school was able to pivot to online learning really quickly, she's just finishing up their third full week.  They're keeping a schedule, classes over Zoom, open-note tests, that kind of thing.  It's not perfect, but it's kept them still learning and, in some ways probably even more importantly from a mental health perspective, has them in a daily routine.

 

[shader]

Sure but things will dissipate and trail off, China turned the faucet off overnight. 

They really didn’t. But they also did a much better job of quarantining that the USA did

 

[snore]

Might not need a new board after all:

I would bet the parts dealer that sells the igniter would have one of these, too. Just need to find out where this part is and hope it's not too hard to access and get tools around.

EDIT: Bah ... the manual doesn't even mention "oven sensor" or "sensor" :(   Gotta keep Googling, maybe check YouTube.

https://www.geapplianceparts.com/store/parts/spec/WB21X5301

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Might not need a new board after all:

I would bet the parts dealer that sells the igniter would have one of these, too. Just need to find out where this part is and hope it's not too hard to access and get tools around.

EDIT: Bah ... the manual doesn't even mention "oven sensor" or "sensor" :(   Gotta keep Googling, maybe check YouTube.

thought about that, from your description.  oven gets X hot, and shuts off.  there might be a sensor, but that sensor might simply be part of the board.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

One county in Colorado is testing people for covid-19 antibodies.  About 1% of the population is testing positive, with another 2% "indeterminate."

That cold you had back in February that you're now sure was covid-19?  It was just a cold.  

 

[Steve Tasker]

I sure hope this isn’t correct and represents an over-exaggeration.  If China’s numbers aren’t accurate, you can forget everything you thought you knew about death rates 

I say this as someone who has really been following this from the periphery, and not nearly as closely as you or many others in the thread - how are you and others so certain that China's reporting is accurate?  This is a genuine question, not any sort of attack.  This may make me sound like a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but for the most part, I don't really trust much in terms of data, reporting, news, etc., from official Chinese sources.  Frankly, I'm skeptical, in general.  Is there significant independent scientific backing of the numbers that China is reporting?

 

[Possum]

After weeks of acting as if it deliberately wanted to make the covid-19 pandemic worse, the FDA will now allow the importation of KN-95 masks.  Better late than never, but the FDA must be abolished and re-imagined from scratch when this is over.

unfortunately though that article says there's a whole lot of unregulated factories popping up in China right now pushing out potentially faulty PPE stuff like these masks. It mentions a shipment of them that had to be turned away from the Netherlands because of bad manufacturing and quotes a top doc in NY saying the KN95 is too porous to be used in hospitals.

 

[DallasDMac]

All the projections show how much this country is going to pay for it's arrogance. "Give up my spring break? No way bro." "Shut down the 50 person choir practice? No way!" We are a nation of idiots.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I honestly don’t care whether I take heat or not, nor do I know if their numbers are accurate.  I’m open either way. I think I prefer the security of thinking that the WHO document and their analysis of this virus (based on China) is accurate. But I could be wrong.  My opinion really isn’t relevant.

Totalitarian countries are really good at controlling information and covering things up. And international bodies are really bad at sussing that out and calling it out. I mean, this is the same WHO that got dragged for ham handedly blowing off and ignoring a question about Taiwan. If they’re willing to appease China  in such a stupid fashion, you can bet they’re doing other things to appease them as well.

 

[rockaction]

All the projections show how much this country is going to pay for it's arrogance. "Give up my spring break? No way bro." "Shut down the 50 person choir practice? No way!" We are a nation of idiots.

I am way more sanguine about our country than you. I'll leave it at that. I am also frustrated with the response, but there's a difference between bad people and bad actions. We are certainly not a nation of idiots, per the technical term, in fact, we've never been smarter due to pre-natal nutrition.

We're ill-equipped, both constitutionally (small "c") and disposition-wise, to deal with this. But we'll get through it. 

 

[rockaction]

Totalitarian countries are really good at controlling information and covering things up. And international bodies are really bad at sussing that out and calling it out. I mean, this is the same WHO that got dragged for ham handedly blowing off and ignoring a question about Taiwan. If they’re willing to appease China  in such a stupid fashion, you can bet they’re doing other things to appease them as well.

International bodies are uniquely bad at calling out totalitarian countries no matter the issue. That is because international bodies are often composed of them as a measure of diplomacy and carrot-and-stick negotiating. 

But everyone knew that. I just appreciate you reaffirming it. 

 

[gianmarco]

Yeah, I skip right past the vaccine/miracle drug stories.  Such a waste of bandwidth and this idea that a miracle drug is going to save us is probably contributing to the social distancing noncompliance we are dealing with.

Along these lines, here's a new paper that shows that the chloroquine/azithro combo isn't effective.  Small N, however, this methodology is different and more clinical.  To summarize, the previous article that showed decrease growth from cultures when the medicine uptake is in the secretions and did not check PCRs unless those cultures were positive.  That methodology isn't clinically relevant whereas this study checked PCRs directly from secretions.

I know we are hoping for some miracle drug or drug combo, but this isn't looking like it.

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...CDC recommends "face cover" as new facts shows the virus can be spread by speaking.

 

[CurlyNight]

Wonder if why Fauci wasn't at the presser is because on cnn last night he said he doesn't understand why there isn't a national stay at home order. Have to wonder. Hopefully it's because he's busy or taking a rest.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wonder if why Fauci wasn't at the presser is because on cnn last night he said he doesn't understand why there isn't a national stay at home order. Have to wonder. Hopefully it's because he's busy or taking a rest.

Busy changing the CDC recommendation on face covering.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

MSN - NY Times: Profiteers and Pool Noodles: The Mask Market Is a Total Mess

Last month, Susan Houghtelling, a hospital supply-chain manager in upstate New York, was facing a shortfall of medical supplies when her inbox suddenly flooded with offers.

There were advertisements for gallons of hand sanitizer, crates of isolation gowns and, most crucially, pallets of N95 masks — perhaps the most sought-after product on the planet. All were for prices that were multiples higher than what she normally paid.

“All of these people are coming out of the woodwork, and all of them mysteriously now have access to an abundant supply,” said Ms. Houghtelling, who works for three hospitals owned by Arnot Health, based in Elmira. She forwarded dozens of messages to The New York Times from brand-new vendors. One offered her boxes of 50 surgical masks for $70 each; she used to pay $2.28.

One solicitor in particular caught her attention: Blank Industries, a company that offered N95 masks for nearly $5 each — and only if Ms. Houghtelling ordered a million. She figured it was a scam.

Blank Industries is a real company, but it’s an ice-melt manufacturer in Hudson, Mass. In an interview, Andrew Blank, the founder, said he had upended his business to sell masks after hearing from a former Chinese supplier he had once hired to make a new kind of toothbrush. (Mr. Blank had invented it.) After the coronavirus hit, the supplier turned his dental-products plant into a mask factory. Mr. Blank told his 12 employees to stop selling rock salt and start selling masks.

Why was he charging $4.92 for each N95? “To be honest, I don’t even know what an N95 normally sells for,” he said.

I told him. “50 cents?” he repeated. His supplier was charging him $4.75.

The eruption in demand for dwindling amounts of masks has resulted in a kind of global supply-chain bedlam. In the United States, the federal government has decided against commandeering American factories to create a new stream of masks. Instead, federal officials are competing against states, hospitals and medical suppliers for the same pool of masks, which come mostly from China.

Yet states and hospitals, whose typical suppliers are overwhelmed and overextended, have little experience negotiating directly with the Chinese supply chain. Thousands of middlemen — entrepreneurs, do-gooders and profiteers — have rushed to fill the void.

That frenzy has created a mess of confusion, according to interviews with hospitals, factories and mask buyers. Production of masks is soaring, but so are scams, logistical hurdles and, of course, prices.

The prices don’t seem like that big of a deal.  You want more masks in a time like this, companies with an incentive will fill the void.  It’s not like they are charging 700 dollars.

 

[Man In The Box]

Wonder if why Fauci wasn't at the presser is because on cnn last night he said he doesn't understand why there isn't a national stay at home order. Have to wonder. Hopefully it's because he's busy or taking a rest.

It’s being reported that Dr. Fauci said he wasn’t bumped. He said there are 15 or so members of the task force and they can’t all be up there every night. He’s missed every time he’s not up there though that’s for sure. 

 

[shader]

I say this as someone who has really been following this from the periphery, and not nearly as closely as you or many others in the thread - how are you and others so certain that China's reporting is accurate?  This is a genuine question, not any sort of attack.  This may make me sound like a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but for the most part, I don't really trust much in terms of data, reporting, news, etc., from official Chinese sources.  Frankly, I'm skeptical, in general.  Is there significant independent scientific backing of the numbers that China is reporting?

Great question.  To be honest, I was the biggest China skeptic of all.  If you read the first 20 pages of this thread, you'll see many posts where I slam China numbers, disparage them for being inaccurate and question what the reality of this virus is.  In fact, I update numbers every night, and I don't include the numbers from China.  The reason my numbers don't include China (all the main number counting websites INCLUDING the John Hopkins website DO include China) is because I didn't believe them.

All that changed when the WHO went to China and opened their doors.  Their "scientific backing" of the numbers changed my tune.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The above has been my definitive "bible" regarding this virus.  Once I read it, I was astounded at how detailed it was. 

This was released on Feb 24th I think.  It was released at a time when China was on the backside of their epidemic.  In the 5-6 weeks since that time, everything that we've seen points to China having gotten past the problem.  So if they had a problem, and they defeated the problem, shouldn't we listen to them?

Then when you read the experts, they always talk about China and what China did.  The NYT has frequently had podcasts where experts discuss the quarantine methods that China used and talk about why they were successful.

I am 100% convinced that China knew within a 95% =/- ratio exactly how many cases they had, because they defeated the virus in a MUCH quicker way than any other country has.  

So were they lying in the info they released to the rest of the world?  Possibly.  But why?  And why are their numbers used by so many scientists?

 

[BassNBrew]

They really didn’t. But they also did a much better job of quarantining that the USA did

Yeah...awesome.  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096

It's not happening here.

 

[shader]

Along these lines, here's a new paper that shows that the chloroquine/azithro combo isn't effective.  Small N, however, this methodology is different and more clinical.  To summarize, the previous article that showed decrease growth from cultures when the medicine uptake is in the secretions and did not check PCRs unless those cultures were positive.  That methodology isn't clinically relevant whereas this study checked PCRs directly from secretions.

I know we are hoping for some miracle drug or drug combo, but this isn't looking like it.

Thanks for the info.  I think I saw that Fauci downplayed the chances of this drug solving the problem too.

 

[shader]

Yeah...awesome.  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096

It's not happening here.

Obviously

 

[CurlyNight]

It’s being reported that Dr. Fauci said he wasn’t bumped. He said there are 15 or so members of the task force and they can’t all be up there every night. He’s missed every time he’s not up there though that’s for sure. 

Hard to believe since Fauci said last night people should wear a covering over their nose and mouth but today it's voluntary unless I missed something. 

 

[CurlyNight]

Has Birx ever been absent but Fauci there?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Has Birx ever been absent?

Yes

Not as often as Dr Fauci but there have been days when neither was there