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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

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TripItUp said:
See the links posted above.
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Awesome job finding links on the internet that back up your opinion.  I disagree with all three propositions.  There is value in following case counts and anyone that argues that there isn't, is just trying to get links.  

 
shader said:
Awesome job finding links on the internet that back up your opinion.  I disagree with all three propositions.  There is value in following case counts and anyone that argues that there isn't, is just trying to get links.  
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You disagree with all 3 reputable sources...I can provide 10 more but whatever.  Good luck.

 
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BassNBrew said:
We have tested 0.5%, Korea which had a 3-4 week head start has tested 0.9%.  I suspected we'll lead the world in testing.
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It's easy to understand why people would think that.  The USA was probably the worst in the world at testing just 2-3 short weeks ago. The change in testing has been dramatic and explosive.  I haven't seen a lot of "feel good" stories being written about it, but it's been astounding.  Hats off to anyone involved. 

 
BassNBrew said:
No.  We predict a lot of things based on sample sizes smaller than that.
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Agree to disagree...when the vast majority of infected people have minor symptoms and are asymptomatic and we are not even close to testing everybody with symptoms....it's pretty much a meaningless stat.

As about 20 articles and reputable media reports that I've seen have pointed out.

 
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TripItUp said:
pretty much irrelevant
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shader said:
Awesome job finding links on the internet that back up your opinion.  I disagree with all three propositions.  There is value in following case counts and anyone that argues that there isn't, is just trying to get links.  
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I think you guys are kind of talking past each other.  The links say the case numbers aren't accurate.  I think we can agree on that.  That said, it doesn't mean the case numbers aren't useful.

 
TripItUp said:
Agree to disagree...when the vast majority of infected people have minor symptoms and are asymptomatic and we are not even close to testing everybody with symptoms....it's pretty much a meaningless stat.

As about 20 articles and reputable media reports that I've seen have pointed out.
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That meaningless stat has been very accurate in predicting death rates.

 
TripItUp said:
not precise is the understatement of the universe.
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Still relevant and meaningful data.  If positive tests drop way down, that’s a good thing. 
 

Less sick people and less people testing positive as infected with the virus seems like a pretty meaningful stat in the case of a pandemic. 

 
Is the testing sample we're looking at a result of being disproportionately distributed to hot spot areas?

I'm not critiquing the decision to send them there, I just wonder if we're getting the whole picture.

 
RnR said:
Is the testing sample we're looking at a result of being disproportionately distributed to hot spot areas?

I'm not critiquing the decision to send them there, I just wonder if we're getting the whole picture.
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correct, a disproportionate amount of tests are in hotspot areas.

 
shader said:
I'm not reading an article that says that case counts are meaningless, when I know they aren't. 

Case counts aren't perfect, the method has flaws, some countries are better than others, in some countries they ARE meaningless.....but they do have value, thus they aren't meaningless.  

Take them with a grain of salt if you must, but let's not float the absurd idea out there that there's no value in reporting case counts.
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Do what you want. 

I wouldn't link the article if it was garbage. If you want to maintain your bias by refusing to read an article that might challenge your opinion, that's on you.  But there's information in that article that I'd venture to guess you aren't aware of.

Me? I like reading things that challenge my viewpoint. It's how I learn.

 
Otis said:
Still relevant and meaningful data.  If positive tests drop way down, that’s a good thing. 
 

Less sick people and less people testing positive as infected with the virus seems like a pretty meaningful stat in the case of a pandemic. 
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I agree with your latter statement if we weren't only testing less than .5% of the population.

 
TripItUp said:
Agree to disagree...when the vast majority of infected people have minor symptoms and are asymptomatic and we are not even close to testing everybody with symptoms....it's pretty much a meaningless stat.

As about 20 articles and media reports that I've seen have pointed out.
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The reason many people are asymptomatic is that they haven't gotten symptoms yet.  There's zero proof that "the vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic".  It may turn out that way, but there's no proof that's the case.  

Either way, if the testing methodology remains the same, the data still has value.  Maybe the only people that go get tested are individuals that are showing strong enough symptoms that they need to get tested.  Whether there are a bunch of asymptomatic cases or not, we're still getting great statistical data on those that have strong enough symptoms to get tested.

You actually make some good points, and I'm not trying to get in an argument.  But you have to understand that when you take the position that it cases are "meaningless" or "irrelevant", that's a very strong position.  All I have to do to show you that you're wrong is demonstrate value in the stat.  And there is a ton of value.  

Maybe just back off the "meaningless" shtick just a bit.

 
shader said:
The reason many people are asymptomatic is that they haven't gotten symptoms yet.  There's zero proof that "the vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic".  It may turn out that way, but there's no proof that's the case.  
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How about we bet on it?

 
TripItUp said:
I agree with your latter statement if we weren't only testing less than .5% of the population.
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That's increasing by leaps and bounds.  If we graph the total number of cases versus the number of test taken on a daily basis, we definitely can garner some insight.

 
TripItUp said:
Cases are a meaningless stat...not sure why the media and others continue to pay attention to that statistic.
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It is not meaningless, just not accurate. For example my brother tested positive, however since his wife was sick, but not sick enough to go to the hospital she was not tested.

It is a relative stat.

For what it is worth (My brother/SIL is 10 years younger at 28 seems to have beaten it)

 
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MTskibum said:
It is not meaningless, just not accurate. For example my brother tested positive, however since his wife sick, but not sick enough to go to the hospital she was not tested.

It is a relative stat. (My brother/SIL is 10 years younger at 28 seems to have beaten it)
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What value do you think current case counts has?

 
Otis said:
Still relevant and meaningful data.  If positive tests drop way down, that’s a good thing. 
 

Less sick people and less people testing positive as infected with the virus seems like a pretty meaningful stat in the case of a pandemic. 
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Let's assume that the number sick people is on the rise. We have no idea if the curve is the same as the curve of tested positive. The message for a while has been if your symptoms are not severe, stay home and ride it out. Patients have been turned away from testing. And I'm sure there is a certain percentage that are sick but afraid to get tested. And then on top of that we have testing ramping up so we have no idea how that plays into the positive cases curve. The data is a complete mess. The only solid data is hospitalizations, ICU cases, and deaths.

 
shader said:
I don't bet on pandemic stats.  Knock yourself out.
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I'll provide more links regarding percentage infected which are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

I know you wont read them, because Harvard and stuff doesn't matter but I'll provide them nonetheless.

 
TripItUp said:
What value do you think current case counts has?
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It mirrors deaths and once it turns, deaths should decrease based on what's happened in other countries.  That would also be the time that we can look at loosening some restrictions.

 
shader said:
The reason many people are asymptomatic is that they haven't gotten symptoms yet.  There's zero proof that "the vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic".  It may turn out that way, but there's no proof that's the case.  

Either way, if the testing methodology remains the same, the data still has value.  Maybe the only people that go get tested are individuals that are showing strong enough symptoms that they need to get tested.  Whether there are a bunch of asymptomatic cases or not, we're still getting great statistical data on those that have strong enough symptoms to get tested.

You actually make some good points, and I'm not trying to get in an argument.  But you have to understand that when you take the position that it cases are "meaningless" or "irrelevant", that's a very strong position.  All I have to do to show you that you're wrong is demonstrate value in the stat.  And there is a ton of value.  

Maybe just back off the "meaningless" shtick just a bit.
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There has been a few testing scenarios that do show that some percent remain asymptomatic, the actual percent can be debated but it is between 25% and 50% according to our best information currently.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/31/824155179/cdc-director-on-models-for-the-months-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

 
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BassNBrew said:
That meaningless stat has been very accurate in predicting death rates.
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For this purpose alone (well, also predicting hospitalization rates) ... case counts are useful even known to be missing almost all asymptomatic and low-symptom carriers. In a sense, those infected who will never need care are triaged out of the testing system.

Now then. That doesn’t mean that more comprehensive sampling tests shouldn’t be run for the sake of providing researchers better transmission data. But that’s a separate issue from what frontline healthcare providers are dealing with in the moment.

 
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