*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

[gianmarco]

Then there's Dak and Zeke.....

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Then there's Dak and Zeke.....

how bout them Cowboys?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Where do we draw the line on hazard pay?  Almost everyone not working from home deserves it at this point, but is that feasible?

Thinking about that myself. I’d prolly draw it at frontline workers but that’s prolly not fair. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Thinking about that myself. I’d prolly draw it at frontline workers but that’s prolly not fair. 

our union (worst union ive ever been a part of) sent us an email 1-2 weeks ago saying to forget about hazard pay. to be fair, we closed the office to the public, so it was just 140 of us in an office building (still a hazard) but now we're down to about 10.

all hospital staff should 100% be given a 10-20% shift premium.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Sigh. The good ol' worldometers posters on FB. Noting that just about everything in the world has caused more deaths this year than the coronavirus. Abortions, starvation, cancer, malaria, drinking unclean water, etc etc.  

 

[fruity pebbles]

our union (worst union ive ever been a part of) sent us an email 1-2 weeks ago saying to forget about hazard pay. to be fair, we closed the office to the public, so it was just 140 of us in an office building (still a hazard) but now we're down to about 10.

all hospital staff should 100% be given a 10-20% shift premium.

That’s prolly where I’d draw the line for now. Anyone who comes in contact with known covid+ individuals as part of their job. 

 

[shader]

Italy 2nd lowest daily rise in cases in the last month with 3,153 new cases.  

 

[Doug B]

Italy 2nd lowest daily rise in cases in the last month with 3,153 new cases.  

Gotta start somewhere.

I am curious about how long it will take before hotspot countries like Italy, Spain, and the U.S. are down to sub-100 new cases per day? In truth ... that may never really happen, as the "acceptable-risk background radiation" level of COVID-infection in society might end up being several hundred or so everyday.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

False Negatives Raise Doctors' Doubts About Coronavirus Tests

Kinda puts in question ALL of the data we're working off of, doesn't it?

Including those "case closed" studies saying there's no way this appeared earlier than the official record tells us.

 Some doctors described situations in which patients show up with clear symptoms such as a cough and fever, test negative, and then test positive later on.

“If a patient presents with classic Covid symptoms, but tests negative, they’ve still got Covid,” said Sperling, who is the chair of emergency medicine at the hospital. “There is just nothing else it could be in New York City in 2020.”

Yes, you read that right. If if you test negative right now with active symptoms, you're still being counted as a Covid-19 case. But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.

 

[Politician Spock]

Gotta start somewhere.

I am curious about how long it will take before hotspot countries like Italy, Spain, and the U.S. are down to sub-100 new cases per day? In truth ... that may never really happen, as the "acceptable-risk background radiation" level of COVID-infection in society might end up being several hundred or so everyday.  

Won't happen until we develop herd immunity or a vaccine. 

 

[shader]

Gotta start somewhere.

I am curious about how long it will take before hotspot countries like Italy, Spain, and the U.S. are down to sub-100 new cases per day? In truth ... that may never really happen, as the "acceptable-risk background radiation" level of COVID-infection in society might end up being several hundred or so everyday.  

That's the million dollar question isn't it.  Outside of China-style lockdowns, we really don't know if this is going to work.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Fed went on a massive printing and buying spree. That money always spills into the stock market. As they say, never bet against the Fed. 

Sounds logical.

 

[shader]

Won't happen until we develop herd immunity or a vaccine. 

If true, I don't know how much longer people can quarantine.  I feel a rising anti-quarantine sentiment.  Hope I'm wrong.

 

[DaVinci]

Wait - she was drunk watching the news at 2am, got in the shower and then fell?

How do you celebrate Easter? 

 

[Politician Spock]

If true, I don't know how much longer people can quarantine.  I feel a rising anti-quarantine sentiment.  Hope I'm wrong.

That's why it won't get to sub-100 new cases per day without herd immunity or a vaccine. 

It's achievable with China style mitigation, but we can't do that in the US.

Oh... and China is also lying. 

 

[sho nuff]

Sigh. The good ol' worldometers posters on FB. Noting that just about everything in the world has caused more deaths this year than the coronavirus. Abortions, starvation, cancer, malaria, drinking unclean water, etc etc.  

Same people who posted the numbers comparing it to H1N1 in the first week claiming this wasn't so bad because there were only 400 deaths so far?

 

[Doug B]

But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.

You link was to swab testing. So far as I'm aware, there has never been swab testing that's gotten much above 70% reliable. That was one reason the CDC-developed test (the one that had a bad-reagent) was actually a battery of three tests that all had to ring up "positive" to count as a positive case.

To confirm that someone had COVID-19 in the recent past (last several months) ... a serological test would be conducted on drawn blood. Such tests are also not 100% and thus would also need to be repeated (or done in parallel) to better lock down a result.

 

[shader]

That's why it won't get to sub-100 new cases per day without herd immunity or a vaccine. 

It's achievable with China style mitigation, but we can't do that in the US.

Oh... and China is also lying. 

I have no idea what's going on in China.  But I have noticed that their numbers are slowly going up again (very slowly).  Even publicly, they haven't eradicated this thing.  And who knows what's really going on.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

You link was to swab testing. So far as I'm aware, there has never been swab testing that's gotten much above 70% reliable. That was one reason the CDC-developed test (the one that had a bad-reagent) was actually a battery of three tests that all had to ring up "positive" to count as a positive case.

To confirm that someone had COVID-19 in the recent past (last several months) ... a serological test would be conducted on drawn blood. Such tests are also not 100% and thus would also need to be repeated (or done in parallel) to better lock down a result.

Then two things - we're working with bad data on current cases and the case isn't closed on what was going on in December and January. So what now?

 

[thecatch]

This is a must-read for anyone following COVID-19 and the anticipated resumption of 'normal' society. An impactful excerpt:

Assuming MLB players' contracts have clauses like the NBA players do (which basically void a percentage of their salary for each missed game), I wonder if/when the players (and players' union) will start getting desperate to play, even if the medical community frowns on the idea.

 

[shader]

False Negatives Raise Doctors' Doubts About Coronavirus Tests

Kinda puts in question ALL of the data we're working off of, doesn't it?

Including those "case closed" studies saying there's no way this appeared earlier than the official record tells us.

Yes, you read that right. If if you test negative right now with active symptoms, you're still being counted as a Covid-19 case. But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.

Testing isn't 100% accurate, therefore your December conspiracy theories might be true?  

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Then two things - we're working with bad data on current cases and the case isn't closed on what was going on in December and January. So what now?

Not picking on you Mr. A, genuine question... did you read the link someone posted (https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-13) that shows that there is NOTHING that shows from analyzing the virus samples that indicates that it was there prior to late January? Genuinely curious if you've seen something other than anecdotal stuff that argues otherwise. 

 

[beer 30]

Gotta start somewhere.

I am curious about how long it will take before hotspot countries like Italy, Spain, and the U.S. are down to sub-100 new cases per day? In truth ... that may never really happen, as the "acceptable-risk background radiation" level of COVID-infection in society might end up being several hundred or so everyday.  

https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/chinas-new-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-near-six-week-high/

BEIJING — China reported the highest number of new daily coronavirus cases in nearly six weeks, driven by a rise in infected travelers arriving from overseas and underscoring challenges Beijing faces in preventing a second wave of COVID-19.

A total of 108 new coronavirus cases were reported Sunday, up from 99 a day earlier and marking the highest number of cases since 143 cases were reported on March 5.

Probably going to be a while if country zero is up above 100 a week after they started to open back up.

If true, I don't know how much longer people can quarantine.  I feel a rising anti-quarantine sentiment.  Hope I'm wrong.

Same here, it's pivoted almost overnight and I point back to whatever day it was last week when the administration announced that the anticipated death count was tracking much lower than first thought. The next day it started and has gotten progressively worse since. With the weather warming up people are just not going to stay home.

 

[shader]

Assuming MLB players' contracts have clauses like the NBA players do (which basically void a percentage of their salary for each missed game), I wonder if/when the players (and players' union) will start getting desperate to play, even if the medical community frowns on the idea.

To be fair, that's going to be the case with people everywhere.  Most people will quarantine while they can watch Netflix, hang out with family, grill out, plant a garden, etc.

But when it begins to seriously impact their life and their future, what will they do?

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Testing isn't 100% accurate, therefore your December conspiracy theories might be true?  

Yeah, that's not what I said. Notably you shut down the discussion that this could have been here in December and January based on one article that dismissed the still ongoing Stanford study. 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Was just at Chik Fil A. Line wrapped around the building twice - obviously just drive thru, no inside service. And the traffic was full blown regular mid day traffic for Tampa. I have a feeling  the quarantine won't be "lifted" so much as it will continue eroding over time.

 

[Statorama]

Oklahoma hospital closed, Healthcare workers furloughed due to Coronavirus policies

Integris Baptist Medical Center in Oklahoma City closed down all operations except emergency, radiology, and ambulatory infusion. The hospital has experienced a 50% drop in revenues since procedures deemed nonessential by the government have been halted.

Oklahoma, like many states, has enacted a policy of temporarily banning nonessential medical procedures in an effort to preserve resources, especially personal protective equipment such as masks. In states without an overwhelming COVID-19 outbreak, some hospitals are seeing very little activity.

The health care system lost more than 40,000 jobs in March, a consequence of the abrupt shift of all medical resources to prepare for potential coronavirus outbreaks. Although New York City and some other areas have seen significant outbreaks, most of the country has not been overwhelmed by the virus.

From USA Today:

The workers range from dentists and general surgeons to medical assistants and nurses, from allergists and dermatologists to primary care physicians and pediatricians.

By June, an estimated 60,000 family practices will close or significantly scale back, and 800,000 of their employees will be laid off, furloughed or have their hours reduced as they see a decline in business during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a HealthLandscape and American Academy of Family Physicians report released Thursday.

 

[thecatch]

To be fair, that's going to be the case with people everywhere.  Most people will quarantine while they can watch Netflix, hang out with family, grill out, plant a garden, etc.

But when it begins to seriously impact their life and their future, what will they do?

Yes.  But MLB players can exert more pressure on their employers to go back to work and resume getting paid than the staff at a local restaurant, for example.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Not picking on you Mr. A, genuine question... did you read the link someone posted (https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-13) that shows that there is NOTHING that shows from analyzing the virus samples that indicates that it was there prior to late January? Genuinely curious if you've seen something other than anecdotal stuff that argues otherwise. 

No, I'm saying I'm not eliminating something as a possibility when we clearly still don't have a full picture of this virus. All those people who were testing negative for the flu in Dec/Jan had something. A different strain? A current strain that we still can't accurately detect?

Either way, this news about false negatives couldn't be anymore clear - we're basing sweeping decisions with massive consequence on bad data. Blanket decisions under false pretenses have to come to an end.  

 

[Doug B]

Then two things - we're working with bad data on current cases and the case isn't closed on what was going on in December and January. So what now?

Keep collecting data. The data isn't "bad" per se -- there's a spectrum. 100% accurate data in any endeavor is essentially impossible. So you get as much data as you can the best way you can. While that means you are only ever dealing with estimates, that doesn't mean you're dealing with miles-off info. It probably doesn't matter a ton if the cases/hospitalizations/deaths numbers in NYC, say, are 20% higher or lower -- the degree of the crisis and the reactions of front-line health providers, etc. would remain essentially the same.

As for the December/January theory ... since the idea is likely unfalsifiable, it won't end up amounting to much. Background serological testing will happen, and apparent healthies/low-symptom folks will get sampled.  But there likely won't be a ready way to tell someone "Yep ... you got it for sure in December" as opposed to having gotten COVID at some other more recent time.

 

[RUSF18]

Rutgers has developed a saliva test that just received emergency approval from the FDA. 

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/new-rutgers-saliva-test-coronavirus-gets-fda-approval

 

[Politician Spock]

I disagree strongly. We have a $24 trillion national debt, and after spending around $3.5 trillion on a stimulus and stocks, we are no close to plugging the hole that will reduce GDP by double that. The lost income and resulting debt, even with bailout and no interest loans, will retract the economy at a pace faster than the deficit in income can be recovered. Additionally, the lack of income to the treasury will spiral the debt, and need for new programs will spiral it further. Ultimately, the Fed’s actions will need to compensate for lost productivity and income, which most they it might if this is a 2 month crisis. It will be much longer than that, and the cracks will show. Eventually, printing our way out of this will cause serious inflation.

This is why in a boom time you don’t keep rates artificially low and increase deficits. We used a get out of jail card in the 2007-2008 crisis, and we don’t have tools that can compensate for lost GDP and treasury income. We may very well get bit very hard here. 

And it seems like a genius move to spend trillions on stock if the markets will see a temporary dip. What if it’s not temporary? That compounds the problems. 

You are conflating government debt and spending with Federal Reserve operations. 

The Federal Reserve operates independently of government (it's actually a hybrid of both government and private influence, but that's a whole other story... all that matters here is that neither government nor private industry has sole influence on what the Fed decides to do).

While the stimulus is being financed by the Fed buying government debt, that's not everything the Fed is currently doing. The Fed is on a massive buying spree in the banking industry. Buying securities such as MBS is volumes never seen before in history. The sellers of those securities get freshly printed Fed cash, and some (actually a lot) of that is then ending up in the stock market.

While the amount the Fed is currently engaged in is historic, what it is doing is actually just standard operating procedure for it. When the system needs more base money, the Fed prints it (mostly digitally) and buys assets. When the system needs less base money, it sells assets and retires the dollars it got back from the sale. Money is created and money is retired. That's the purpose of the Fed.

When the Fed is in printing mode, it's really a bad idea to expect the stock market to go down, because the stock market historically has been where those dollars end up first, even though the Fed doesn't buy stocks (or so it claims). This is where the phrase "don't bet against the Fed" came from. 

It's also why looking at the stock market as an indicator of the health of the economy is a waste of time. The small business industry is going to get decimated in the next year, if not longer, and that disaster won't be reflected in the stock market much at all, except in stocks where the business relies heavily on servicing small businesses. 

 

[SoBeDad]

The government is not ready and doesn't have the resources to properly deal with confined people, such as prisoners and detainees at ICE camps:

>> Under CDC Guidelines — which detention centers are required to follow — people exposed to COVID-19 should be put in individual, not group, quarantine: “Facilities should make every possible effort to quarantine close contacts of COVID-19 cases individually.”

Cohort quarantine “should only be practiced if there are no other available options.” The CDC says “cohorting multiple quarantined close contacts of a COVID-19 case could transmit COVID-19 from those who are infected to those who are uninfected.”

"I’m in so much pain, I barely have breath in my chest and my throat hurt,” Francisco Fuentes, a Honduran national at Krome, told the Herald. He said he has been feeling ill for days and still won’t be administered a coronavirus test. “I’m sorry I’m crying but my bones and my body aches, I feel faint and my fever is burning. Please help me.”

The chances of detainees being tested for coronavirus inside the Florida detention centers are slim, federal sources say. “The only way someone will get tested is if they’re over 65 or basically dying,” one ICE prosecutor said.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MiamiHerald/status/1249710590538416128

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

No, I'm saying I'm not eliminating something as a possibility when we clearly still don't have a full picture of this virus. All those people who were testing negative for the flu in Dec/Jan had something. A different strain? A current strain that we still can't accurately detect?

Either way, this news about false negatives couldn't be anymore clear - we're basing sweeping decisions with massive consequence on bad data. Blanket decisions under false pretenses have to come to an end.  

I get that regarding testing, but a couple of things... 1) as I posted the other day, in LA as an example, 80% of tests are negative, so (aside from those that are required checks of healthcare workers, etc.) they have something else besides Covid-19. There are still other respiratory illnesses that display similar symptoms (i.e. "just a virus") 2) that is still not addressing the fact that the science of analyzing virus DNA/RNA is explicitly showing that COVID-19 DNA/RNA was NOT present in California prior to late January. 

 

[TheWinz]

How do you celebrate Easter? 

Like everyone else this year.  Eat a few reese's peanut butter eggs in the morning, bash on those who attend church, eat dinner, get drunk, watch news, then take showers.  Who didn't do this?

 

[Doug B]

Assuming MLB players' contracts have clauses like the NBA players do (which basically void a percentage of their salary for each missed game), I wonder if/when the players (and players' union) will start getting desperate to play, even if the medical community frowns on the idea.

Short version: way, way too many ancillary staff are needed to pull games off even without spectators. The leagues alone can't get no-crowd games off the ground -- even if owners, team officials, coaches, and players are all working together as one.

The SI article is a short, quick, and worthwhile read.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

There does need to be a better plan than "shut it all down" in some places, those with less density and low infection rates. There is even a blueprint for what it needs to be. Will we do it? For some reason we don't seem to agree that testing, surveillance, isolation, masks and social distancing in concert are viable In the US. Why is that? 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Like everyone else this year.  Eat a few reese's peanut butter eggs in the morning, bash on those who attend church, eat dinner, get drunk, watch news, then take showers.  Who didn't do this?

I went "no shower". And "all" the reeses.

 

[moleculo]

No, I'm saying I'm not eliminating something as a possibility when we clearly still don't have a full picture of this virus. All those people who were testing negative for the flu in Dec/Jan had something. A different strain? A current strain that we still can't accurately detect?

Either way, this news about false negatives couldn't be anymore clear - we're basing sweeping decisions with massive consequence on bad data. Blanket decisions under false pretenses have to come to an end.  

The risk of opening things up too early and with insufficient measures means hundreds of thousands of people die (if not millions).  The risk of opening up too late is an incrementally worse economy.

if you don't trust the data, the appropriate response is the conservative one - assume it's actually worse than reported, and keep everything locked down longer.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Oklahoma hospital closed, Healthcare workers furloughed due to Coronavirus policies

Here's a good example. Why a place like Oklahoma doesn't take the lead in what needs to be done outside of "shut it all down" is confusing. 

 

[Statorama]

Dr. Fauci about to be fired?

Fauci is trying to do a little revisionist history in his various press tours and I think it's rubbing people (or a person) the wrong way.

From a February 29th interview

PETER ALEXANDER, TODAY SHOW CO-HOST: Dr. Fauci, it’s Saturday morning in America. People are waking up with real concerns about this. They want to go to malls, to movies, and maybe the gym. Should we be changing our habits, and if so, how?

FAUCI: Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything you’re doing on a day by day basis.

 

[BassNBrew]

I have a question and apologies if this is already talked about; the thread is huge. Did you guys do Easter stuff for your kids yesterday? We told our 4 year old that the Easter Bunny couldn't come this year because of the virus. We are in the Philly area and following all the protocols (stay at home) and did not deem going out to the store to buy Easter candy and dollar toys a necessity. My wife tried to order some things on Amazon but due to their prioritization, the delivery dates were way after Easter and she gave up. We haven't been able to schedule an instacart delivery in weeks and we are living off of what we have in the pantry. We also didn't dye eggs because they are a scarce commodity and we only have about a dozen and a half left and didn't want to "waste" them. My daughter completely understood until we got on her online Pre-K class this morning and all the kids were talking about their Easter baskets and how one family went to South Jersey for an Easter egg hunt (WTF????????????). Instant tears but we are getting through it and my wife is now thinking of going to CVS to buy her some candy. I'm just a bit gobsmacked because I am wondering if we are the only weirdos holed up in our house and everyone else is out there living like normal. 

Opps.  Wish you had posted this in the middle of last week.  We would have figured something out other that telling a 4yo the Easter Bunny cancelled.  Understand why you did this, just would have come up with some other option.

Where do we draw the line on hazard pay?  Almost everyone not working from home deserves it at this point, but is that feasible?

Great idea..would love me some hazard pay.

 

[Politician Spock]

There does need to be a better plan than "shut it all down" in some places, those with less density and low infection rates. There is even a blueprint for what it needs to be. Will we do it? For some reason we don't seem to agree that testing, surveillance, isolation, masks and social distancing in concert are viable In the US. Why is that? 

We didn't shut it all down.

We only shut down non-essentials.

I'm open to hearing where the line should be moved, but given how many businesses that qualify as being "essential" can be laughed at, I think the line has already been drawn pretty liberally to keep a lot open that isn't really essential. The line I wouldn't cross is that so much is open that the hospitals get overwhelmed. I think Ohio could open up so more without that happening. But Michigan, for example, already has six times as many deaths as Ohio with around the same amount of population. They probably shouldn't open up anything more, and maybe should get more strict and close some. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I think my favorite (ok, least favorite) notion in all this is that despite shutting down just 3 days apart, those 72 hours must be the reason why California has this well under control compared to New York despite California having twice the population. There's no way it could have been that the outbreak struck California well before it was on everyone's radar. Despite now having shut down for over 3 weeks, New York has more new cases in what, the last 3 days, than California has over the entirety of this spread? It doesn't add up.

 

[-fish-]

Like everyone else this year.  Eat a few reese's peanut butter eggs in the morning, bash on those who attend church, eat dinner, get drunk, watch news, then take showers.  Who didn't do this?

You took a shower?

 

[Slapdash]

Saw about 5 families doing an easter egg hunt in the park next to my house together  

 

[TheWinz]

You took a shower?

Patially, when fishing my wife out of the tub

 

[Mr Anonymous]

There does need to be a better plan than "shut it all down" in some places, those with less density and low infection rates. There is even a blueprint for what it needs to be. Will we do it? For some reason we don't seem to agree that testing, surveillance, isolation, masks and social distancing in concert are viable In the US. Why is that? 

Excellent post and question. Could it be that some don't want to even try?

 

[Don't Noonan]

Dr. Fauci about to be fired?

Fauci is trying to do a little revisionist history in his various press tours and I think it's rubbing people (or a person) the wrong way.

From a February 29th interview

Dr. Fauchi was very wrong at the beginning of this.  He has changed his tune considerably since his early mistakes.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

The risk of opening things up too early and with insufficient measures means hundreds of thousands of people die (if not millions).  The risk of opening up too late is an incrementally worse economy.

if you don't trust the data, the appropriate response is the conservative one - assume it's actually worse than reported, and keep everything locked down longer.

No, you and others continue to operate within two extremes. Free for all doesn't work and neither does blanket shut down. Both have horrible (though different) and unacceptable consequences.