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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

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Redwes25 said:
752 death toll in NY for last 24 hours.  Think we are going to see this plateau for the week and then hopefully start to trend down next week.  Numbers will be brutal by the end of this in NY.  
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I agree with this.  Im starting to think NY (NYC at least) has peaked.  Maybe 10-14 more days.

 
belljr said:
However even better is I think if you just qualify say 197999 for married with 0 kids.

Your AGI goes up for 1 kid so you need to be under 207000 married with 1 kid

If that makes sense.

I think
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What is my AGI limit with wife and 3 kids?

 
Redwes25 said:
752 death toll in NY for last 24 hours.  Think we are going to see this plateau for the week and then hopefully start to trend down next week.  Numbers will be brutal by the end of this in NY.  
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If today is the peak, and we really get down to 0 deaths by May 15th like the IHME model predicts, it will be both a miracle (to get to 0) and the worst tragedy of a generation or more, as we can basically take today's total deaths cumulative to date and effectively double it before we get down to 0 (to account for the deaths on the way down to 0).

 
I need a driveway redone and it wasn’t going to be a top priority but I would imagine that concrete workers should be able to work during this period of time right?

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
If today is the peak, and we really get down to 0 deaths by May 15th like the IHME model predicts, it will be both a miracle (to get to 0) and the worst tragedy of a generation or more, as we can basically take today's total deaths cumulative to date and effectively double it before we get down to 0 (to account for the deaths on the way down to 0).
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I think that model is garbage.  It predicted the peak deaths in NYC five days ago with a pretty quick decline.  That is not what is happening nor what happened in places that are ahead of us on Curve (Italy, Spain, China, etc...)

 
Redwes25 said:
I think that model is garbage.  It predicted the peak deaths in NYC five days ago with a pretty quick decline.  That is not what is happening nor what happened in places that are ahead of us on Curve (Italy, Spain, China, etc...)
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Tend to agree. Would like to see how it reflects the last several days worth of data and the future projections. The steep decline wasn't seen in those places, as you point out. Doubling the current number would have around 22K passed away, current model reflects around 14K. 

Bottom line is the plateau is not really anything to point to in terms of "re-opening". Really need to see steep declines before any of those thoughts can be even considered.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Tend to agree. Would like to see how it reflects the last several days worth of data and the future projections. The steep decline wasn't seen in those places, as you point out. Doubling the current number would have around 22K passed away, current model reflects around 14K. 

Bottom line is the plateau is not really anything to point to in terms of "re-opening". Really need to see steep declines before any of those thoughts can be even considered.
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The first thing that has to happen before you re-open is that you actually have to get to a plateau in terms of active cases.  The USA isn't close to a plateau.

Click on any country in Worldometers and look at the active cases chart.  Start with South Korea.  You can see their active cases plateau and then go down.

Italy and Spain are just now plateauing.

We know active cases isn't super precise, but it's all the data we have.  If it's not precise enough, states need to make it precise.  Because THAT is the most important stat that's out there in terms of figuring out when to re-open.  

 
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shader said:
The first thing that has to happen before you re-open is that you actually have to get to a plateau in terms of active cases.  The USA isn't close to a plateau.

Click on any country in Worldometers and look at the active cases chart.  Start with South Korea.  You can see their active cases plateau and then go down.

Italy and Spain are just now plateauing.

We know active cases isn't super precise, but it's all the data we have.  If it's not precise enough, states need to make it precise.  Because THAT is the most important stat that's out there in terms of figuring out when to re-open.  
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IMHO you need a plateau of hospitalizations, and that plateau has to be lower than your capacity by a certain margin so you won't be swamped if you open up too much. This is the way I see the European countries go about it. What you open is also interesting and here the European countries differ a lot

 
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Ray McKigney said:
The retail sector is beginning to crash. I don't want to speak out of school, so I can't mention names, but two massive companies, names you would all know, are swirling the drain and can't find investors. I'm currently negotiating "terms of surrender" with these companies, both of whom have 7 figure balances on arrears with the company I work for. It's getting ugly fast out there. If this co tinues for several more months, as it appears will be necessary, expect many of the places you eat/stay/shop at to no longer exist. 

Not saying we should be doing anything differently, just stating sad facts. 
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Some of the names I heard that are going to struggle coming out of this are Macy's, Kohl's and GAP. Just nod if I'm close

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Tend to agree. Would like to see how it reflects the last several days worth of data and the future projections. The steep decline wasn't seen in those places, as you point out. Doubling the current number would have around 22K passed away, current model reflects around 14K. 

Bottom line is the plateau is not really anything to point to in terms of "re-opening". Really need to see steep declines before any of those thoughts can be even considered.
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I would hope policy makers are aware of these flaws if a couple of guys on a fantasy football message board can figure it out.

 
beer 30 said:
Some of the names I heard that are going to struggle coming out of this are Macy's, Kohl's and GAP. Just nod if I'm close
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Anything with a lot of presence in malls has to be getting waylaid now. Ironically, (indoor) malls are among the places in which it's easiest to enforce social distancing in ways to make retail shopping pretty safe.

 
beer 30 said:
Some of the names I heard that are going to struggle coming out of this are Macy's, Kohl's and GAP. Just nod if I'm close
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Always thought it was a bad move for Kohl's to close their grocery stores.  Thought they'd move to a hybrid model like Super Target (and they'd be open for business today if they did).

Kohl's has a pretty good online presence (and a zillionaire owner), so they should be fine if this doesn't drag on much longer.  Macy's was holding on for dear life even when the economy was roaring.

 
Ray McKigney said:
The retail sector is beginning to crash. I don't want to speak out of school, so I can't mention names, but two massive companies, names you would all know, are swirling the drain and can't find investors. I'm currently negotiating "terms of surrender" with these companies, both of whom have 7 figure balances on arrears with the company I work for. It's getting ugly fast out there. If this co tinues for several more months, as it appears will be necessary, expect many of the places you eat/stay/shop at to no longer exist. 

Not saying we should be doing anything differently, just stating sad facts. 
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Retail sector has been struggling for awhile.  This will be the nail in the coffin for a few large companies but not sure they would have survived anyway (JCP is a prime example).  

 
Wife got her results back...."inconclusive"...they want to test her again.  Unbelievable :lol:

She's told them no and will wait for the antibody test to be available.  She's back on her feet and back to normal for the most part.  None of the rest of us have had any issues, so we will continue to do what we're doing.  Only now we can are including her as part of the family again.  I'll do the shopping and the rest stay home.  This has been quite the rollercoaster.  

 
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Redwes25 said:
I would hope policy makers are aware of these flaws if a couple of guys on a fantasy football message board can figure it out.
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Umm...check out ANY of the first 150 pages in this thread and compare the general consensus opinion there to that of our policymakers at the time and I think you'll understand the concern

 
The Commish said:
Wife got her results back...."inconclusive"...they want to test her again.  Unbelievable :lol:

She's told them no and will wait for the antibody test to be available.  She's back on her feet and back to normal for the most part.  None of the rest of us have had any issues, so we will continue to do what we're doing.  I'll do the shopping and the rest stay home.  This has been quite the rollercoaster.  
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It's a gosh darn Greek tragedy. This far in, how long did you wait? A week? Two?

 
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The Commish said:
Wife got her results back...."inconclusive"...they want to test her again.  Unbelievable :lol:

She's told them no and will wait for the antibody test to be available.  She's back on her feet and back to normal for the most part.  None of the rest of us have had any issues, so we will continue to do what we're doing.  Only now we can are including her as part of the family again.  I'll do the shopping and the rest stay home.  This has been quite the rollercoaster.  
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mannn, that's frustrating! I wonder if that means they messed up the test somehow?

anyway, glad she's better :thumbup:  

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
mannn, that's frustrating! I wonder if that means they messed up the test somehow?

anyway, glad she's better :thumbup:  
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Has to be that.  It's a standard PCR test.  You can't "kinda have the virus".  The only other option is the sample went bad while it was sitting, waiting to be processed.  That might be more likely.

 
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Anyone remember how to see the number of posts people have in this thread? I am hoping that will help me find my first post in this thread.

 
beer 30 said:
Some of the names I heard that are going to struggle coming out of this are Macy's, Kohl's and GAP. Just nod if I'm close
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Best Buy's suppliers were actively preparing for its bankruptcy back in the 2010-13 range.  The stock subsequently caught fire, but they just announced furloughs and I suspect they'll be in trouble again.

 
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Doug B said:
Anyone remember how to see the number of posts people have in this thread? I am hoping that will help me find my first post in this thread.
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I was thinking that feature went away with the last big board upgrade. If there's away to do it now, I haven't been able to find it, and I've tried. 

 
thecatch said:
Best Buy's suppliers were actively preparing for its bankruptcy back in the 2010-13 range.  The stock subsequently caught fire, but they just announced furloughs and I suspect they'll be in trouble again.
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How they survived while Circuit City (basically the same store, no?) died always befuddled me.  I'd be surprised if Best Buy makes it through.  

 
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