*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

[JAA]

The hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is anything but extremely improbable. If your argument requires hyperbole, then it's not a strong argument to begin with. 

For the 30 year old age group, yes it's extremely improbably that a covid infection results in hospitalization...

More hyperbole

Try this:  https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Take a look at the age group, then see how the trend is increasing.  If you want to say 10 out of 100k is improbable, sure.  However, that age group is only half of the overall rate of 20.  IMO, your lens for "extremely improbable" is disingenuous when you look at the entire CV data picture.  Ill even go as far as to say you are cherry picking stats.

 

[jplvr]

Right, but it is being prescribed by doctors

I had a longer post typed up when I responded earlier, but took out some stuff. I'm in a thread on another forum, trying to pay attention to some doctors posting, but that has mostly dried up due to flubro posters in a more conservative forum. This particular NYC doc deserves a medal for wading off into threads, but below is a post of his from today. A week or two ago, he reported that his hospital was stopping their treatment of severe patients with HCQ, and another doc from Wisconsin said the same, although both were still hopeful at that time it would prove beneficial in the earlier stage. A friend of mine also has a BIL who is a doctor in the New Orleans area who was using it for treatment, but I haven't spoken to the BIL for a couple of months, and that was passed through to me from the friend who was hoping to use the drug if people in his now closed dental office came into contact with a CV patient.

It is a long known side effect- it is rare with HCQ by itself, in an patient with no other arrhythmogenic meds. Potentiating QT prolongation stacks when taking other medications (for example azithromycin) and many other drugs and disease states. There seems to be some sort of weird connection between COVID and arrhythmias as well. The QT can be monitored easily in the hospital, but when it gets to a certain point, the QT prolonging drugs need to be stopped as it can quickly turn into a life threatening heart rhythm called "torsades de pointes" and then death. It's not totally uncommon, and I've seen it myself from a different antibiotic called Levaquin.

So, along with what I've said all along. You don't give something without a proven benefit if there are real risks. We are all looking forward to RCTs that should be coming out very soon, but so far it seems the risks, although small, outweigh the benefits (which seem to be negligible).

Also I should add this is a warning, which many other drugs have FDA warnings and are still used routinely all the time.

I really just think the controversy surrounding HCQ is way overblown. I have plenty of fingers to point and blame to issue, but I just want to argue about it enough to type out any of it.

 

[-fish-]

Thank you for sharing fish.  I honestly dont know how you are containing yourself when someone makes such baseless and hurtful claims.

I just don't understand some people.  It makes me sad.

It would make me sad if people only put themselves at risk by being foolish.  The justaflu people, the conspiracy theorists, the religious whackjobs...normally I'd just shake my head and feel bad for them.   But they're putting others at risk.   At that point, people shouldn't be afraid to call them out for their reckless stupidity.

 

[parasaurolophus]

  If you want to say 10 out of 100k is improbable, sure.

Ummmm.....

 

[bigbottom]

After the story came out, this is what the CEO is now doing to help.

The hospital CEO said as of April 20, she was waiving her own accrual of paid time off, giving back two days every pay period from her personal time off bank, and was also using her accrued PTO to cover three days every pay period, saving the organization money. She said she planned to do that for a three-month time frame. 

Wow, don’t hurt yourself. 

In other words, she is not taking a pay cut. 

 

[JAA]

No, that's 2-3 per 100,000 of the population bro.     

So then the percentage depends on what percent of the 100,000 that tested positive were in that age group. I couldn't find that data anywhere on that pdf.

So here is one that shows the risk of hospitalization by age group. From: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-30/odds-of-hospitalization-death-with-covid-19-rise-steadily-with-age-study

By decade, the risk of hospitalization from infection with the new coronavirus is: Zero for kids under 10; 0.1% for kids 10 to 19; 1% for people aged 20 to 29; 3.4% for people aged 30 to 39; 4.3% for people in their 40s; 8.2% for those in their 50s; 11.8% for people aged 60 to 69; 16.6% for those in their 70s; and 18.4% for those in their 80s or above.

So it's even higher than 2 to 3%.

It's 3.4%. 

Some additional data  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

The COVID-19–associated hospitalization rate among patients identified through COVID-NET for the 4-week period ending March 28, 2020, was 4.6 per 100,000 population (Figure 1). Hospitalization rates increased with age, with a rate of 0.3 in persons aged 0–4 years, 0.1 in those aged 5–17 years, 2.5 in those aged 18–49 years, 7.4 in those aged 50–64 years, and 13.8 in those aged ≥65 years. Rates were highest among persons aged ≥65 years, ranging from 12.2 in those aged 65–74 years to 17.2 in those aged ≥85 years. More than half (805; 54.4%) of hospitalizations occurred among men; COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates were higher among males than among females (5.1 versus 4.1 per 100,000 population). Among the 1,482 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated hospitalizations reported through COVID-NET, six (0.4%) each were patients aged 0–4 years and 5–17 years, 366 (24.7%) were aged 18–49 years, 461 (31.1%) were aged 50–64 years, and 643 (43.4%) were aged ≥65 years. Among patients with race/ethnicity data (580), 261 (45.0%) were non-Hispanic white (white), 192 (33.1%) were non-Hispanic black (black), 47 (8.1%) were Hispanic, 32 (5.5%) were Asian, two (0.3%) were American Indian/Alaskan Native, and 46 (7.9%) were of other or unknown race. Rates varied widely by COVID-NET surveillance site (Figure 2).

 

[Tolstoy]

i'm really hoping Ecuador's 11K+ new cases today on worldometer is a mistake.

 

[MTskibum]

More hyperbole

Try this:  https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Take a look at the age group, then see how the trend is increasing.  If you want to say 10 out of 100k is improbable, sure.  However, that age group is only half of the overall rate of 20.  IMO, your lens for "extremely improbable" is disingenuous when you look at the entire CV data picture.  Ill even go as far as to say you are cherry picking stats.

Ummmm.....

That is for the total population. So far 14.3  out of every 100,000 people aged 19-49 that live in the 100 random counties being tracked by the cdc for this project have been hospitalized.

It provides no data about what the percent chance that someone aged 30 will be hospitilized since we do not know how many people age 19-49 in those counties have been infected.

 

[MTskibum]

i'm really hoping Ecuador's 11K+ new cases today on worldometer is a mistake.

Most countries numbers are worldometer are completely useless.

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/4/24/headlines/ecuadors_coronavirus_death_toll_may_be_15_times_higher_than_reported

The New York Times reports Ecuador’s COVID-19 death toll is 15 times higher than the official government count, making it one of the worst in the world. The Times’s analysis of official death registrations in Ecuador reveals a staggering 7,600 more people died of COVID-19 from March 1 to April 15, more than the average mortality rate in recent years. This spike is in stark contrast to the 503 deaths the government attributed to the coronavirus as of April 15.

 

[GroveDiesel]

In other words, she is not taking a pay cut. 

And she gets a ton of PTO.

 

[JAA]

Hard to say we got lucky, but a virus this infectious that also spreads asymptotically, but which is much deadlier would have welded right through us.

What's worse is that our ridiculous overreaction to this one is actually going to cause more people to ignore that one.... kind of like how a bunch of people stick around during the mother of all hurricanes because everyone told them the 5 before that were gonna be the mother of all hurricanes and nothing happened.

What would you have done differently?

 

[JAA]

2 million out of 327 million is 0.6%

New York City will pass 0.2% of their entire population tomorrow. 

Also, this German study has it at about .4% - https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

The California studies put it well below that as well:   https://reason.com/2020/04/21/if-covid-19-has-a-low-infection-fatality-rate-how-many-will-die/

So even if 100% of people got it (which probably wouldn't happen), it's still gonna be hard pressed to hit 2 million, like I said.     And from what I've been reading the fatality rates tend to be higher where there's heavy pollution.    https://www.sciencealert.com/two-new-studies-provides-evidence-that-air-pollution-is-increasing-risk-of-death-from-coronavirus     So New Yorkers not having any clean air to breathe could push their numbers up.   

Lets say its .1%.  Lets say only 70% of the 340m US population gets it.  Lets say this happens by the end of 2020.

Question:  Where would this rank CV in leading causes of death in the US on average?

 

[shader]

I don’t like what I see with this article.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-volunteers-at-cny-groceries-shoppers-line-up-for-tests-to-track-diseases-spread.html

 

[top dog]

What the hell happened to this thread?  

 

[JAA]

According to worldometers we have crossed over 50k deaths and there seems to be no downward trend of cases and deaths which seem just stuck at just under 30k and just over 2k, respectively. Sometimes for each are on other side of that line such as cases yesterday but generally those are our daily numbers. 
 

Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet. 

While NY/NYC are declining, there are 20-25 states that aren’t. 

MA and PA are going to have a bad month

 

[JAA]

According to worldometers we have crossed over 50k deaths and there seems to be no downward trend of cases and deaths which seem just stuck at just under 30k and just over 2k, respectively. Sometimes for each are on other side of that line such as cases yesterday but generally those are our daily numbers. 
 

Really depressing to see these numbers, I had hoped the plateau would have start seen decreasing numbers by now given the social distancing we have all done but not apparent yet. 

Looking at how many is different than looking at percent increase.  The percent increase is going down.  Slowly, but it is going down.  Deaths on the other hand are trailing and should start to have a lower day to day percent increase next week.  (Speaking as the US in whole)

I agree with your points.  That said, I dont think its worth discussing the US as a whole.  Each state (more like region) will have its own cycle.  NY is the best example where NYC is one aspect, but CNY is completely different.  Pretty tough to manage geographically these days with all the ways to travel long distances.  I imagine 1918 was much easier to limit travel.

 

[Doug B]

I don’t like what I see with this article.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-volunteers-at-cny-groceries-shoppers-line-up-for-tests-to-track-diseases-spread.html

Do you mean how so many of the people that volunteered for the testing were sure they had COVID already? Or something else?

 

[JAA]

Pennsylvania has some nice breakdowns on the DOH website:

Positive Cases By Age:

0-4 <1%

5-12 <1%

13-18 1%

19-24 6%

25-49 39%

50-64 28%

65+ 25%

Hospitalization Rate of confirms (incidentally, PA has 21% positive test rate, so make your own assumption on if/how the denominator needs to be adjusted):

0-29 2%

30-49 5%

50-64 10%

65-79 20%

80+ 21%

Nursing home positives : 5679 residents + 673 staff (17% of total PA cases)

Nursing home deaths : 849 (60% of total PA deaths)

Great data points, thank you for sharing.

 

[JAA]

There was a lot of talk in here a couple of weeks back about hydroxychloriquine being a game changer.  Looks like that was misguided.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/fda-issues-warnings-on-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-after-serious-poisoning-and-death-reported.html

Wait wait wait wait - you mean we arent all going to be saved by a previous existing miracle drug?

 

[shader]

Do you mean how so many of the people that volunteered for the testing were sure they had COVID already? Or something else?

Yes.  I took Cuomo’s word for it, and have been surprised that virtually everyone is doing the same.

Did a little digging and came up with that.  I saw folks on twitter claiming that they lived in New York and the antibody testing was on social media the day of.

Found that article which confirms my suspicions. It wasn’t random.  End of story.

The only way we will know what the cfr is, is to have an extremely accurate antibody test and use it on entire populations.  These studies and models aren’t sufficient, imo. 

What are your thoughts? Am I going down the right path here?

 

[JAA]

2 million out of 327 million is 0.6%

New York City will pass 0.2% of their entire population tomorrow. 

Also, this German study has it at about .4% - https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

The California studies put it well below that as well:   https://reason.com/2020/04/21/if-covid-19-has-a-low-infection-fatality-rate-how-many-will-die/

So even if 100% of people got it (which probably wouldn't happen), it's still gonna be hard pressed to hit 2 million, like I said.     And from what I've been reading the fatality rates tend to be higher where there's heavy pollution.    https://www.sciencealert.com/two-new-studies-provides-evidence-that-air-pollution-is-increasing-risk-of-death-from-coronavirus     So New Yorkers not having any clean air to breathe could push their numbers up.   

Lets say its .1%.  Lets say only 70% of the 340m US population gets it.  Lets say this happens by the end of 2020.

Question:  Where would this rank CV in leading causes of death in the US on average?

Not sure he is coming back, so Ill answer my own question.

.1% with 70% of the us population contracting would make CV the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for 2020.

BTW - the justaflu is #8

 

[cosjobs]

There is no clinical trial that says this works for Covid, let's leave it at that.  Nobody should be prescribing this right now.

I'd take it.

If I had malaria

 

[cosjobs]

 Just too many variables to control with the cocktail approach IMO.

That's when I use Uber

 

[cosjobs]

Run all you want. I’ll run with if me or mine has it I’m trying this OK?

Keep this handy

 

[Keerock]

No -- that's horse manure. Speaks poorly of the site ... but I'm in a bind.

Thought rubbing alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, etc. would bounce back around when paper products did. Thought I had enough at home, but others in the household use up the alcohol in the house instead of just washing their hands.

https://www.froggysfog.com/sanitizer/froggy-s-simply-sanitizer-hand-rub-formulation.html

Has an odd smell, and is not "gel-like", but it suffices. 

 

[CurlyNight]

Gavin Newsom

@GavinNewsom

NEW: CA has launched a first-in-the-nation program-- Restaurants Deliver will allow local restaurants to provide meals for older Californians. 3 meals a day--at no cost. This will help provide jobs to local businesses and aid those in need. Learn more: http://Covid19.ca.gov.

Friendship line expanded beyond being just for health issues. If you need to talk about anything.

888.670.1360

 

[cosjobs]

Replying to my own post:

The retailer above purports to be a print shop (stationery, business cards, direct mail, etc.) in the Atlanta metro area. Is there any reliable way I can vet this online offer? The price ain't great compared to pre-COVID prices, but I've seen much worse out there.

This is a better deal and has a wider range of use, Its 95% pure alcohol

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Not sure he is coming back, so Ill answer my own question.

.1% with 70% of the us population contracting would make CV the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for 2020.

BTW - the justaflu is #8

Interesting. What about .5% - .6%? That's the NY number from the antibody survey.

 

[cosjobs]

Definitely. Any company that asks rank and file employees to take pay cuts while giving executives bonuses should be permanently banned from receiving any type of federal aid.

or my business

 

[RCon]

Spidey sense about this site? Total scam, right?

Can't find isopropyl alcohol anywhere ... in person or online :(  

Don't know about that one, but bulkapothecary.com and froggysfog.com are both legit.  I have ordered and received from both.

 

[JbizzleMan]

He sure showed him.

@washingtonpost

·

1m

A Georgia man is in jail for allegedly shooting and killing his stepson for refusing to abide by the state's stay-at-home order, police say

 

[NotSmart]

Run all you want. I’ll run with if me or mine has it I’m trying this OK?

Keep this handy

I was expecting this - both would be a good way to be prepared.

 

[JbizzleMan]

RUH ROH.

@NatGeo

One lab reported exposing SARS-CoV-2 to 158°F, and the virus survived for 5 minutes! At 132°F, the virus survived for at least 10 minutes!!!

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30003-3/fulltext

 

[jplvr]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday.

 

[cosjobs]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday.

wow

 

[The Commish]

That's when I use Uber

Uber Vax.....why didn't I think of that?!?!?!?!?!?

 

[jplvr]

wow

It's an estimate and extrapolation, of course, but a good sign nonetheless. 

 

[shader]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday.

Much better. Apparently in this survey they used phone numbers to randomly call and invite people to come get tested.

 

[rcam]

Yes.  I took Cuomo’s word for it, and have been surprised that virtually everyone is doing the same.

Did a little digging and came up with that.  I saw folks on twitter claiming that they lived in New York and the antibody testing was on social media the day of.

Found that article which confirms my suspicions. It wasn’t random.  End of story.

The only way we will know what the cfr is, is to have an extremely accurate antibody test and use it on entire populations.  These studies and models aren’t sufficient, imo. 

What are your thoughts? Am I going down the right path here?

I'm not putting much faith in the antibody tests at the moment. Too many false positives and the testing isn't random.

I am more interested in the ships and small towns where the entire population is tested. The Diamond Princess, Vo Italy, and now USS Theodore Roosevelt. The military ship is especially interesting because most of the sailors should be young and in good health. Right now, about 17% of the ship's population has tested positive with a .11% mortality rate. IMO, any antibody test that is coming close to the same percentage of infection as a close quarters military ship is suspect. Also, from early numbers, I think we would expect a .2% mortality rate for the 20-29 age group. Anything more than 1 more death - especially if the ship ends up having 5-10 in total should be alarming to everyone. That would put the mortality rate between .5 to 1% for an age group that is supposed to be the least susceptible yet still in the workforce. 

 

[moleculo]

this brewery is a few miles from me here in SC.  It's a pretty unique place - literally a guys farm in the middle of no where.  There really isn't a taproom and/or indoor seating, it's more of a big garage with 30 barrels of beer fermenting.  Anyway, I follow Benford on teh facebook and he has been (rightfully) complaining that he can't open for consumption.  I say righfully becase again, he has no indoor seating anyways, it's 100% outside, on a farm.  Plenty of room to spread out.  There is absolutely no reason I wouldn't feel safe walking up, getting a beer, and sitting down at a picnic table in the sun and enjoy the fresh air.  Every time I've been there, it's really just me and my wife and maybe a couple other folks...never busy.  Like I said - it really is in the middle of nowere.  But, because he is a brewery afterall, he can't open.  blanket rules and all that.

Now that SC has opened up retail (and for some reason included flea markets), Benford has found their loophole.  They are hosting a flea market this weekend.  They invited any and all businesses who don't have a physical store front to come up and set up a table on his farm.  And, if people wanted to order a growler from his brewery while shopping, that's fine - he can sell growlers.  He will probably have some music going too.  I'd bet he would even give you some plastic cups if you wanted to pour beer from your growler into your plastic cup.  And, if you were to bring your own lawn chair and people watch the good folks shoping, he won't chase you away.

Part of me wants to say "good for Benford for finding the loophole to get business going again!", but the rational part of me is really, really nervous about how many folks get teh Rona. While I would have no problem with Benford being open for the occasional beer enthesuiast, having a flea market sounds like a really, really bad idea.

 

[shader]

I'm not putting much faith in the antibody tests at the moment. Too many false positives and the testing isn't random.

I am more interested in the ships and small towns where the entire population is tested. The Diamond Princess, Vo Italy, and now USS Theodore Roosevelt. The military ship is especially interesting because most of the sailors should be young and in good health. Right now, about 17% of the ship's population has tested positive with a .11% mortality rate. IMO, any antibody test that is coming close to the same percentage of infection as a close quarters military ship is suspect. Also, from early numbers, I think we would expect a .2% mortality rate for the 20-29 age group. Anything more than 1 more death - especially if the ship ends up having 5-10 in total should be alarming to everyone. That would put the mortality rate between .5 to 1% for an age group that is supposed to be the least susceptible yet still in the workforce. 

The Diamond Princess has about a 2% CFR, though it likely skewed older than the general population.

 

[JbizzleMan]

@DrDenaGrayson

Study of #COVID19 cases in #SouthKorea: 94 of 216 people working on the 11th floor of a call center were infected with #coronavirus, translating to an attack rate of 43.5(!). Note that most of those infected () sat on the same side of the floor.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

@DrDenaGrayson

The household secondary attack rate among symptomatic #coronavirus patients in this study was 16.2%. Of the 97 persons with confirmed #COVID19, only 4 (1.9%) remained asymptomatic within 14 days of quarantine, and NONE of their household contacts acquired secondary infections.

 

[shader]

The antibody test used in the Miami testing has a very low specificity.  I don't claim to be an expert on that, but I did find it interesting.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

The particular antibody test is the BioMedomics, which has not been reviewed by the FDA.

 

[The Commish]

this brewery is a few miles from me here in SC.  It's a pretty unique place - literally a guys farm in the middle of no where.  There really isn't a taproom and/or indoor seating, it's more of a big garage with 30 barrels of beer fermenting.  Anyway, I follow Benford on teh facebook and he has been (rightfully) complaining that he can't open for consumption.  I say righfully becase again, he has no indoor seating anyways, it's 100% outside, on a farm.  Plenty of room to spread out.  There is absolutely no reason I wouldn't feel safe walking up, getting a beer, and sitting down at a picnic table in the sun and enjoy the fresh air.  Every time I've been there, it's really just me and my wife and maybe a couple other folks...never busy.  Like I said - it really is in the middle of nowere.  But, because he is a brewery afterall, he can't open.  blanket rules and all that.

Now that SC has opened up retail (and for some reason included flea markets), Benford has found their loophole.  They are hosting a flea market this weekend.  They invited any and all businesses who don't have a physical store front to come up and set up a table on his farm.  And, if people wanted to order a growler from his brewery while shopping, that's fine - he can sell growlers.  He will probably have some music going too.  I'd bet he would even give you some plastic cups if you wanted to pour beer from your growler into your plastic cup.  And, if you were to bring your own lawn chair and people watch the good folks shoping, he won't chase you away.

Part of me wants to say "good for Benford for finding the loophole to get business going again!", but the rational part of me is really, really nervous about how many folks get teh Rona. While I would have no problem with Benford being open for the occasional beer enthesuiast, having a flea market sounds like a really, really bad idea.

I've met that guy..had a couple beers with him and it's a pretty good product even.  NONE of this surprises me, at all.  Sounds exactly like him.

 

[moleculo]

I've met that guy..had a couple beers with him and it's a pretty good product even.  NONE of this surprises me, at all.  Sounds exactly like him.

Yup.  You know this area.  You know these people.  You know his flea market will be packed.  This will not end well.

Eta: I've met Brian too.  Good dude.  His beer is OK...i mean, its good, but not world class.  He is more of a "throw stuff in and see what happens" kind of brewer than scientist type.  Every now and then he makes a really good beer but also every now and then its just meh.

 

[moleculo]

I'm not putting much faith in the antibody tests at the moment. Too many false positives and the testing isn't random.

I am more interested in the ships and small towns where the entire population is tested. The Diamond Princess, Vo Italy, and now USS Theodore Roosevelt. The military ship is especially interesting because most of the sailors should be young and in good health. Right now, about 17% of the ship's population has tested positive with a .11% mortality rate. IMO, any antibody test that is coming close to the same percentage of infection as a close quarters military ship is suspect. Also, from early numbers, I think we would expect a .2% mortality rate for the 20-29 age group. Anything more than 1 more death - especially if the ship ends up having 5-10 in total should be alarming to everyone. That would put the mortality rate between .5 to 1% for an age group that is supposed to be the least susceptible yet still in the workforce. 

A 0.1-0.2% mortality rate for that age group is still really bad.  Without looking up, I'd bet that's still about 10x vs influenza.

Eta: yup

 

[JAA]

Not sure he is coming back, so Ill answer my own question.

.1% with 70% of the us population contracting would make CV the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for 2020.

BTW - the justaflu is #8

Interesting. What about .5% - .6%? That's the NY number from the antibody survey.

Its just math ifriend (340000000 * (populationInfected)) * mortalityRate

For those 1.2-1.4m.  Which would be the #1 cause of death in the US.  It would be double #2.

 

[[scooter]]

Yesterday, Sweden reported an all-time high for new cases -- a 10% jump over the day before.

Then today they eclipsed yesterday's mark with an 8% increase over yesterday's number.

 

[The Commish]

Yup.  You know this area.  You know these people.  You know his flea market will be packed.  This will not end well.

Eta: I've met Brian too.  Good dude.  His beer is OK...i mean, its good, but not world class.  He is more of a "throw stuff in and see what happens" kind of brewer than scientist type.  Every now and then he makes a really good beer but also every now and then its just meh.

Agreed....just before we left the area, Legal Remedy in Rock Hill had opened.  I just like the whole place...food's good, beer's good but he'd try different things too, though more controlled.  If you haven't gotten down there, it's worth it IMO.  I'd drive by there sometimes and be like "What's that blueberry smell?".  It was them experimenting.  I'm not a fan of the different flavored beers, but he had one that had a spice factor to it that was fantastic.  I loved it.  Wish I could remember the name of it, but it was great....it was only every so often though.

 

[prosopis]

I just got word from work that they are targeting the first week in June to reopen ambulatory elective surgery.

I have still not received any unemployment. I have been out of work since March 18 and I am starting to freak out.

I feel a nervous breakdown coming.