Probably goes without saying that this also assumes there is a fairly long-term immunity from having had it once. Given how similar viruses have behaved in the past, scientists currently seem to think that makes sense, but we don't know this for certain yet. If having it once does not grant immunity, or only creates a limited immunity (say, for a few weeks or months), then herd immunity isn't going to be possible.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
CR69
Footballguy
Reading what some of you are going through with schooling is disappointing but makes me feel grateful for our school system.
They're using Google Classroom, Lexia (for reading) and Moby Math. They're doing zoom meetings a few times a week to keep the interaction going between students, sharing and even science projects that the kids follow at home with their own readily available materials. They distributed chromebooks for everyone that needed one. Our local cable internet provider (Charter) is even giving free internet access for those that need it.
I just assumed it was pretty much the same everywhere.
They're using Google Classroom, Lexia (for reading) and Moby Math. They're doing zoom meetings a few times a week to keep the interaction going between students, sharing and even science projects that the kids follow at home with their own readily available materials. They distributed chromebooks for everyone that needed one. Our local cable internet provider (Charter) is even giving free internet access for those that need it.
I just assumed it was pretty much the same everywhere.
the moops
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You would rather have your kids bring home coronavirus and kill you instead?
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Asymptomatic or mild cases have to be way higher than we thought. In WI kenosha, saw its first day of drive thru open to public test results and in one day went from 391 cases to 477.
As far as i know that wasnt fueled by any large company, prison, or facility.
msommer
Footballguy
It may. If enugh people voluntarily social distance from others. This is exactly what Sweden is trying to do.
I think we both agree that no way would this work in the US
msommer
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
No one is saying we shouldn’t slowly begin loosening restrictions. So let’s try to be reasonable here. Slowly loosen them and then if cases start shooting up, re-assess.
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beer 30
Footballguy
Not as sure about that as you are Ham and I'm not saying that strike up an argument about it. I think there are areas that have survived, adapted and prospered during this time. If we go back to living life pre-COVID, yea I would agree. But I think we've learned, we've adapted and I think the data is showing that we can get on with life (changed to be sure) with proper adherence to social distancing, wearing the right PPE when appropriate and being smart about going back into the public.
Yes there will be those idiots that were never going to do this anyhow, there will continue to be push back from areas that by their nature, have to do things differently to exist in this new world and there will be times when we are lax with all the procedures/precautions we are putting into place. It's going to happen no matter what we do.
@jobarules posted a page back about people dying from this and it was a pretty blunt post. Frankly I thought it would get more push back but he's right. People are going to die regardless of what we do. Millions as you think? Maybe but I find that hard to believe with what we know today as opposed to what we knew in March. More than normal because of this virus? Most certainly. It's not pretty and I'm not wishing it on anyone. What NYC has gone through is hell on earth. Will it happen again? I really hope not but I also think we know much better today how to handle an outbreak than we did in March and we can quickly counteract this outbreaks armed with that knowledge.
Just my current
shader
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
These meatpacking plants are insane at this point. Last week monday brown county had 181 cases. Now they have 1185. Pretty much all from a meatpacking plant.
Are they processing pangolin meat??
Are they processing pangolin meat??
shader
Footballguy
The worst kept secret that everyone knows, it’s here to stay. It’s about managing it until a vaccine. There’s virtually no way to eliminate it, outside of martial law.
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Curious where the lack of civility is in my post? And glad to see you're shifting over to the reopen safely side. Welcome.
I don't know man. Maybe it's because I have an only child but he hasn't interacted with any other kid in 6 weeks. He hasn't seen his cousins, friends, or baseball teammates in 6 weeks. I can go outside and play with him all i want and we have. We've practiced hitting, pitching, had football catches in the street, and even gone on long walks to catch pokemon on pokemon go. Yet none of that involves other kids.
The only interaction he has with one of his friends is playing fortnite and I HATE that game because it turns him into a little monster. I try and limit it but at the same time it is literally the only interaction he has with any children. It's sad.
jamny
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
We’re gonna go slow here in downstate NY. I’m not displeased we get to learn something one way or another from others going faster.Not as sure about that as you are Ham and I'm not saying that strike up an argument about it. I think there are areas that have survived, adapted and prospered during this time. If we go back to living life pre-COVID, yea I would agree. But I think we've learned, we've adapted and I think the data is showing that we can get on with life (changed to be sure) with proper adherence to social distancing, wearing the right PPE when appropriate and being smart about going back into the public.
Yes there will be those idiots that were never going to do this anyhow, there will continue to be push back from areas that by their nature, have to do things differently to exist in this new world and there will be times when we are lax with all the procedures/precautions we are putting into place. It's going to happen no matter what we do.
@jobarules posted a page back about people dying from this and it was a pretty blunt post. Frankly I thought it would get more push back but he's right. People are going to die regardless of what we do. Millions as you think? Maybe but I find that hard to believe with what we know today as opposed to what we knew in March. More than normal because of this virus? Most certainly. It's not pretty and I'm not wishing it on anyone. What NYC has gone through is hell on earth. Will it happen again? I really hope not but I also think we know much better today how to handle an outbreak than we did in March and we can quickly counteract this outbreaks armed with that knowledge.
Just my current
In their favor (hopefully) is we might have a seasonal effect from the weather, before the next wave appears in the fall. Hopefully as states are reopening they are simultaneously ensuring they have the capacity, equipment and PPE for the fall. Of course we’ll have seasonal flu as well.
It’s important to have capacity, to now the infection rate (antibody testing), and to continue diagnostic testing. I presume we’re not being Pollyanna optimists and just hoping it goes away.
Sweeden has far different demographics than the U.S. Much smaller households - #1 is single living alone, #2 is married/unmarried w/ no kids. They’re healthier - top 5 health care system, USA is around 38th or do. They live 4-5 years longer. 6 out of 10 Swedes live in rural areas or villages of 200 or less. 10M residents / 4.7M households might not be a perfect model for a country of 329M/128M but I guess we’ll find out.
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beer 30
Footballguy
They are a mess but another example of an industry adapting to stay in the game, whether by their choice or the governments. We are starting to work closely with them, putting to work all the air scrubbers we have coming off rent from the healthcare industry and transferring it to these huge processing facilities. They are installing testing stations that every employee needs to pass through before they can go to work, putting in air purification systems all over the plants, etc.
Learn how to play, I love Fortnite. Get what you are saying though, gotta be tough on young ones. My daughter teaches 2nd grade and one of the biggest hits because of this is the lack of social interaction amongst the kids. It's not healthy for them to be isolated.
the moops
Footballguy
He has always been on that side. As have most people in this thread. I think if anythning, you have softened your stance
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Unless there's been some post deleting or editing, the posting history says something dramatically different. It's cool though. @shader is clearly an intelligent person. It was just a matter of time.
beer 30
Footballguy
Yea that's something else I failed to mention in my diatribe. Every area is going to be unique. How NYC handles this compared to Fort Mill, SC is orders of magnitude different thus painting with a broad brush is probably a bad idea. There was a place for it as this thing attacked us but like so many times in the past, the US took a shot to the body, doubled over but straightened up and came out swinging. We have to be adaptable, we can't just stomp our foot and say I want it to be like it was on February 1st. It's not realistic and if anyone thinks it is then we'll just agree to disagree right now.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Correct. You find a cure or way to mitigate while working on a vaccine. They seem to be getting closer. Until we have that all everyone can do is be smart.
I think things need to loosen up, especially for the younger like my kids and those without underlying health issues. In the US there are 51 deaths under the age of 25, all but 2 of them immuno-compromised. And like 95% of the total are from imuno-compromised across all age groups. Essentially 100% of people are taking the hit to keep 3% of the population safe. Which is what we should do. But it's a fact. How to loosen it up is the question? As soon as the younger mix with the older (ie my teenagers with me), there's a risk. And putting people like me in the hospital that are likely gonna be fine in the end stresses the health system.
#1 thing as shader says is the vaccine. Early on I was of the opinion they could get one together in 3-6 months and forward hit the trials for it and life would move on.
Obviously that hasn't happened. Which honestly surprises me with all the smart people, computers, and money we put into healthcare.
Summerofgeorge
Footballguy
Yeah. Most positives are around Philly , Pittsburgh and Hazleton I believe. A lot of rural counties in Pa. 60 some in my county. We aren’t in the “14 days of decreasing cases” like the fed guidelines call for but....here we go I guess
Woot!
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Every region, also each industry.
Construction and manufacturing can go first. Those are controlled environment. Test for antibodies, take temps when they clock in, issue PPE, practice social distancing.
Gets trickier with other industries. Just have to plan it out. No reason to wing it.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
That doesn't sound right. I remember the H1N1 pandemic and that vaccine moved right along. There are already human trials underway for covid vaccines with more coming online in the very near future, so there's great reason for optimism.
I got it from here
https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/science/2020/04/why-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year
The mumps vaccine—considered the fastest ever approved—took four years to go from collecting viral samples to licensing a drug in 1967
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not if you preferentially infect the healthier part of the herd (desired) or overwhelm your healthcare system by lack of restrictions (undesired).
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah, I’ve read quite a few articles indicating the expectation Fauci has set (12-18 months) is extremely optimistic.
worrierking
Footballguy
Has this been posted? I'm not sure I buy it but it's interesting. Some are theorizing that kids under 10 don't transmit the disease. From the Sydney Morning Herald:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/experts-fail-to-find-a-single-case-of-children-passing-virus-to-adults-20200430-p54ohi.html
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/experts-fail-to-find-a-single-case-of-children-passing-virus-to-adults-20200430-p54ohi.html
MTskibum
Footballguy
But the asymptomatic period can range between 2 and 10 days. I would like to see a follow up study done that shows how many remain asymptomatic.
top dog
Footballguy
I am currently crafting an email to my boss that gets in writing my concerns with how we are handling this as a company (IGNORING THE MANDATES OF OUR STATE GOVERNMENT TO HAVE EMPLOYEES WORK FROM HOME WHO CAN WORK FROM HOME) but disguising it in a veil of me offering to donate supplies for cleaning and the steps I will be following to help mitigate risk. I'm sure they won't SEE RIGHT THROUGH my intent of this email.
Sand
Footballguy
This matches pretty well with the Illinois prison study at 96% and the Stanford study what was at 25-85x asymptomatic.
It's good to see these start to confirm each other.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
No vaccine for SARS or MERS (which are also coronaviruses) were ever developed. MERS is contained and SARS disappeared.
shader
Footballguy
We’ve all grown and changed our opinions as time has gone on. I don’t think I’ve ever been against loosening restrictions when appropriate. But, I’m sure it’s possible one night I was scared, had a few whiskeys and posted some dumb stuff.
If someone on page one had said that sports would be cancelled, the world would lockdown, the market would crash 30%, they’d have been laughed off the thread. But times change and we adjust.
My opinions have changed from time to time, but on the subject of “re-opening”, I don’t think they have all that much. The upside to 50 states handling things their own way is that we should all see a lot of different ways of handling lockdowns/quarantines and in a few months will know what works and what doesn’t.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
That's probably just selection bias. Doom-and-gloom articles tend to get a lot more attention and circulate more widely than good-news articles. Like I mentioned, we are already at the human trials stage for some possible vaccines, and there are literally scores more in the pipeline. Most of what I've read suggests that finding a vaccine -- or probably multiple vaccines -- should be fairly easy. The bigger issue is going to be producing and distributing it, but that's a solvable problem with a little intelligent rationing.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
My 20 year old daughter lives within 2 miles of the meat plants that have been shut down in Greeley due to all the deaths. She works at the Sam's right close by. She just called my wife and said she is at work and not feeling well. She isn't running a fever, but has a sore throat and is having trouble breathing. Just the phone call you don't want as a parent. I told her to inform her manager and ask to go home. My daughter is a little high strung, so I am hoping she is just hyperventilating with all the stress she is under between Sam's working her into the ground and it is finals week coming up.
I have mentioned on here that she is a bio major with a chem/math minor. Ironically when this school year started, she switched her area of emphasis to virology and parasitology. She was just accepted to the Keck Institute for their summer internship program to do some virus study.
And now her mom and I sit and worry.....
I have mentioned on here that she is a bio major with a chem/math minor. Ironically when this school year started, she switched her area of emphasis to virology and parasitology. She was just accepted to the Keck Institute for their summer internship program to do some virus study.
And now her mom and I sit and worry.....
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
This is false, by the way. Or at least extremely misleading. Somebody did actually create a vaccine for SARS, but it was never brought to market mainly because the disease was already killed off.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
rcam
Footballguy
I still think 98% is a pie in the sky number. It *really* doesn't make sense in the context of a place like New York. Assuming *most* of the positive tests are people who are actually symptomatic (pretty safe assumption due to scarcity of tests). 314000 positive tests in New York equates to 15.7 million people infected in New York. In a state of 20 million total people you are looking at nearly 80% being infected. If they haven't achieved herd immunity yet (which it doesn't appear to have happened), you are looking at an R0 likely over 5. There are a lot of things that don't add up both in the way we have seen the disease progress and basic number crunching when some study says 96-99% are asymptomatic.
Penguin
Footballguy
Early on it was reported that fibrosis was found in the lungs of some of the patients in China that had recovered. Haven't seen anything recently about that.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Interesting. The link below indicates otherwise. Says there has never been a vaccine created for any coronavirus. It would of course be great if there was. At the very least it does illustrate that a vaccine, while huge, is not necessary to get past viruses of this kind.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/16/coronavirus-vaccine-timeline/
ETA: I think this just comes down to word choice. It appears as though vaccines have been created, they've just never reached the approval for mass distribution and use stage which is obviously the most important step. There are already vaccines developed for Covid-19 but they're in the infant stages of testing.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The article in the link says that a SARS vaccine was never produced. That's true. But people get that confused with whether a vaccine was ever created (one was) and whether we could have produced one but chose not too.
Covid-19 is the single most pressing issue of our time, and we have a very advanced, well-developed scientific infrastructure that is well-equipped to find a solution. We know how to do this, and the problem has our full attention. The doom and gloom is wildly misplaced IMO.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Ummm...
I dont feel like reading the article right now but the byline indicates that this wasnt very close. Will read later.
We just could not generate much interest," a researcher said of the difficulty in getting funding to test the vaccine in humans.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
I agree that old timelines and obstacles might not be as daunting as assumed. If any SARS vaccine had been funded to it's completion, we might have something that could be effective right now. At the very least, it has helped us skip ahead in the science of battling coronaviruses. We've also never poured so many resources into a coronavirus vaccine before. I just hope that if this one disappears or is contained the way SARS and MERS did, that we see things through with the vaccine process.
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boots11234
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
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