Mile High
Footballguy
People just love spending $8 on a bag of popcorn and setting alone in a almost empty theater.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
The Commish
Footballguy
You're going to want to check back in a couple weeks from "reopening". I've seen a lot of "see, we opened up yesterday and no new cases...WE ARE BEING SCAMMED!!!!!!" sorts of sentiment. Along with the predictable "Remember when it was predicted to be millions of deaths???? YEAH ME TOO!!!!!" garbage.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Which is an uptick, which according to the "guidelines" means shutting back down....are we outraged they aren't following the guidelines and shutting down? I haven't seen that sentiment outside of those who thought opening back up this early was a mistake in the first place....not even from those who claimed they were/are worried that Governors wouldn't follow the guidelines for political reasons.
The Commish
Footballguy
We are probably getting into "political" territory here, so I'll leave this as my last comment...we were told this can't be hidden and shouldn't be a concern.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
I don’t think they should have opened yet. Not much I can do about it other than hope for the best. Unfortunately, Georgia is a bit of a guinea pig for the rest of the country.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I have not seen that confirmed. One of the most important questions in this whole thing.
By ‘stopping it’ I’m talking about a resurgence of cases and ultimately deaths. Hospital capacity isn’t the only concern.
Mile High
Footballguy
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msommer
Footballguy
It's not confirmed but IIRC for both the cases in the Faroe Islands and South Korea that the people who tested positive twice have not been re infected. It's more that the virus stays in the body longer than expected. Several things are not known, such as are the tests catching inactive viral cells or active viral cells, and whether these people are contagious
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I’ve been thinking about this for where I live, TN. We are on day 6 of the end of stay at home orders. My wife saw a visible rise in traffic as the week went on. Enough that she’s now going to stop delivering groceries.
If the incubation period if 1-2 weeks, the rise in sick people will probably start sometime next week. But when will it hit the numbers? I’d say a 2 weeks from Monday, but possibly late next week.
6-8 weeks seems a bit long to me.
shader
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
I suppose it depends on how many undiscovered contagious cases are out there. If there are many the R0 number will soar very quickly. If there are few it needs time to spread again.
So the later the better I would venture (unless my reasoning is wrong)
msommer
Footballguy
Tennessee seems to have a much better grasp on testing that GeorgiaAnd Tennessee! Don’t forget about us.
shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Cuomo announced new antibody testing results
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html
He Estimated that 12.3% of New York State has had corona.
My math follows:
Thats would be about 2.3 million people.
With 24,000 deaths, that puts the death rate at 1%. So if I’m doing my math right, the death rate has doubled from the previous round of testing.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html
He Estimated that 12.3% of New York State has had corona.
My math follows:
Thats would be about 2.3 million people.
With 24,000 deaths, that puts the death rate at 1%. So if I’m doing my math right, the death rate has doubled from the previous round of testing.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Down from the first two announcements (13.9% for the first 3K and 14.9% from the first 7,500.)
Death rate was indeed 0.5% but that is pending reclassification of at home deaths that might push it to 0.8%. So I presume the new range is 1.0-1.3%.
Sand
Footballguy
The first wave of COVID lawsuits has begun. Color me shocked that Ticketmaster is being sued for screwing over ticket buyers. So predictable.
Oof:
Getting people to engage in social distancing, however, can be easier said than done. The country's president, Jair Bolsonaro, has sabotaged efforts to impose effective social distancing, firing his health minister who defended the move, and attacking covid-19 as “hysteria”.
Asked about Brazil's rising death toll, the far-right politician recently declared: “So what?”
msommer
Footballguy
It depends on if you were counting probable deaths because their confirmed deaths are 18600. I doubt the 0.5% # counted probable deaths. That being said the denominator definitely decreased with more testing. Can't deny that. I'd say the true range will probably be in the 0.7%-1.0% range.
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Apple Jack
Footballguy
Surely has been posted, but just in case it hasn't:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721
boots11234
Footballguy
jamny
Footballguy
That's why I've been asking for clarification on that and also info on new hospitalizations. With increased testing we can't go by an increase in new cases and the guidelines should , and maybe some do, use new hospitalizations as a stat.
Does anyone know where to find an ongoing list of new hospitalizations by state and county? Worldometer doesn't show that, nor does wikipedia. Cuomo shows it on his daily updates for NY.
-fish-
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Funny thing about a lagging indicator like deaths, they keep increasing after the infections stop. So the previous was always: it can't mathematically be any lower than .5% Given the false positives in the antibody test (i.e. margin of error) it still seems useful to use this bottom end figure to shut up the "just a flu" bros. Sadly, they have now abandoned that indefensible position and taken up the insincere "we can't stay locked down for 18 months" position that exactly 0.0% of us are espousing.
FWIW, am in favor of slow, thoughtful, targeted, re-opening.
But also want:
- More testing (leverage defense protection act for this if necessary), with 24 hour turnaround and NO cost for either the test itself nor any subsequent hospitalization
- Federally run contact tracing (so silly that this hasn't already happened)
- More messaging on the value (and, in some places at certain times, requirements) of mask-wearing
- Widespread tracking and reporting of LOCAL R0 (everyone should know their local RO on a daily basis - post it on highway messaging, digital clock towers along time and temp, etc.)
- federal messaging praising companies who can commit to work-from-home policies whenever RO gets above 1.0
- federal messaging expressing sincere appreciation for those who workers at companies who can't commit to large-scale work-from-home policies
msommer
Footballguy
WHO didn't say that people could be reinfected again. They were timidly saying they had seen no evidence that they couldn't. Now they probably have, let's see what they say next
jamny
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Pretty sure they just said that there was no evidence of immunity, not that there is not immunity.
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msommer
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
What did the WHO say here that was wrong? This article doesn’t contain proof that people can’t ever be reinfected. It just says that the people who were presumably reinfected....actually weren't. That is different than proving it can never happen.
chet
Footballguy
Here are anecdotal (no control group) from the first 39 patients who were treated with leronlimab under emergency authorization from the FDA. EIND stands for emergency investigative new drug:
@Joe Bryant
-fish-
Footballguy
WHO's statement was based on anecdotal evidence that people were reinfected. According to this study, that didn't and doesn't happen.
-fish-
Footballguy
Gilead increased its lobbying by over 30% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to last year.
The NIAID study that was going to be such a game-changer still hasn't been released, although a summary was supposed to come out yesterday.
The NIAID study that was going to be such a game-changer still hasn't been released, although a summary was supposed to come out yesterday.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I haven’t seen anyone defending the WHO but maybe I missed that. There’s no question China lied, suppressed information, denied community spread, silenced whistleblower doctors, et al. That’s not news.
What other conclusions did you draw from the New York Post summary? Did you click through to read the underlying secondary source (The Saturday Daily Telegraph in Australia.) Did you notice any differences in the lengthy original reporting and the American papers article upon which it was purportedly based?
The primary source - 15 page dossier prepared for 5 western nation intelligence agencies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK, USA) - was not released. That’s fine, they may have good reason to not do so (they don’t want to dox who leaked it), but we might want to wait a minute for independent sourcing to confirm. But even still, the Au newspaper isn’t claiming SARS-CoV 2 came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
In fact the NY Post article - I know, this will come as a shocker - is straight up gaslighting what was reported by the paper holding the primary source document.
I don’t know how to do color coding on my my iPhone & I’m social distancing in a park 15 miles from home. So in this comparison exercise I’ll use italics for quotes from the Post and bolded for quotes from the original reporting of the Telegraph.
Headline:
China lied about origin of coronavirus, leaked intelligence report says
Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program
from the respective articles:
A damning dossier leaked from the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance claims that China lied to the world about human-to-human transmission of the virus, disappeared whistleblowers and refused to hand over virus samples so the West could make a vaccine.
The bombshell 15-page research document also indicated that the virus was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a claim initially dismissed as a conspiracy theory because Chinese officials insisted the virus came from the local wet markets, according to the Australian Daily Telegraph.
“At the same time, a senior intelligence source told Fox News that while most intelligence agencies believe COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab, it was thought to have been released accidentally.”
Bobby Layne:
Paragraph 1 is largely true, though using “damning” is a pejorative while the last sentence seems to be speculative sensationalism.
The second paragraph is simply not true. At all. Not based on what the Telegraph article states. And it finishes with the assertion this claim isn’t theirs but came from the Telegraph. We’re not taking about sloppy wording or ambiguous sentence structure. That is simply straight up gaslighting; they’re telling you don’t believe what your lying eyes read.
Para 3 - Here we have the introduction of a “supporting source”, an unnamed senior intelligence source. Interesting euphemisms aside, there is absolutely no evidence “most intelligence agencies” believe Covid-19 originated in a lab. In point of fact, no one in the intelligence or scientific communities believe that. What was reported by the Telegraph? That the U.S. was going to begin an investigation into whether that is possible.
OK, let’s go to the videotape:
comparing to Para 1 of the Post:
China deliberately suppressed or destroyed evidence of the coronavirus outbreak in an “assault on international transparency’’ that cost tens of thousands of lives, according to a dossier prepared by concerned Western governments on the COVID-19 contagion.
The 15-page research document, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, lays the foundation for the case of negligence being mounted against China.
It states that to the “endangerment of other countries” the Chinese government covered-up news of the virus by silencing or “disappearing” doctors who spoke out, destroying evidence of it in laboratories and refusing to provide live samples to international scientists who were working on a vaccine.
...
Its [the dossier] major themes include the “deadly denial of human-to-human transmission”, the silencing or “disappearing” of doctors and scientists who spoke out, the destruction of evidence of the virus from genomic studies laboratories, and “bleaching of wildlife market stalls”, along with the refusal to provide live virus samples to international scientists working on a vaccine.
OK, not bad, not completely off the rails (yet.)
Comparing Para 2 (which is NOT editorial comment, it is claiming to be sourced from the a telegraph article they hyperlinked in the Post website):
The Australian government’s position is that the virus most likely originated in the Wuhan wet market but that there is a remote possibility — a 5 per cent chance — it accidentally leaked from a laboratory.
The US’s position, according to reports this week, is that it is more likely the virus leaked from a laboratory but it could also have come from a wet market that trades and slaughters wild animals, where other diseases including the H5N1 avian flu and SARS originated.
[ambiguous what “reports this week” refers to, no hyperlink as is commonly used when introducing another source - all the reporting I have seen has the U.S. intelligence agencies stating it is far more likely it did not come from the lab...but I digress]
UNLIKELY CLAIMS VIRUS CREATED IN LAB
Scientific consensus is that the virus came from a wetmarket. But the US’s top spy agency confirmed on the record for the first time yesterday that the US intelligence committee is investigating whether COVID-19 was the result of an accident at a Wuhan laboratory.
[What was confirmed? That the US intelligence committee is investigating. Not that they have drawn conclusions or changed previously published reports that U.S. intelligence lines up with the scientific community.
ALSO NOTE - immediately after asserting the U.S. position, the Telegraph contradicts that with a quote from Richard Grenell below:]
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence acting director Richard Grenell said the virus was not created in a laboratory.
“The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to US policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China,” he said.
“The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified. As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to US national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”
How did the Post read that and then summarize in the second paragraph “The bombshell 15-page research document also indicated that the virus was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology”? There is nothing in the 93-paragraph report in the Telegraph indicating the dossier says that. This is a fabrication.
What the dossier does include is a study (since withdrawn) claiming the virus came from the lab. There is no scientific proof, the genome sequencing for SARS-CoV 2 is unique. But let’s read what the Telegraph noted is included in the dossier.
Despite Mr Grenell’s statement and scientific consensus that the virus was not created in a laboratory, based on its genome sequence, the governments’ research paper obtained by The Telegraph [the dossier] notes a study that claims it was created.
South China University of Technology researchers published a study on February 6 that concluded “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high-risk biohazards laboratories”.
“The paper is soon withdrawn because it ‘was not supported by direct proofs’, according to author Botao Xiano,” the dossier noted, continuing to point out that: ‘“No scientists have confirmed or refuted the paper’s findings’, scholar Yanzhong Huang wrote on March 5.”
The Saturday Telegraph does not claim that the South China University of Technology study is credible, only that it has been included in this government research paper produced as part of the case against China.
Thats it. A report not supported with any proof, withdrawn, but included in the dossier in case it warrants further investigation. After noting it, the Australian newspaper clarifies they’re not suggesting it’s credible, only that the dossier noted its existence and that it was withdrawn because it lacked evidence or scientific proof. It was a speculative study with no underlying documentation.
On to paragraph 3? Unfortunately, no - the Post isn’t citing the Telegraph. We aren’t privy to the underlying documentation the senior intelligence source is using; there is no hint what that belief might be based on. You’ll just have to believe them.
Further reading, from May 1st:
BBC World News - Coronavirus: Is there any evidence for lab release theory?
Conclusion - when a media source is summarizing original reporting, it’s always a good idea to click their hyperlink and see if what they wrote matches the original story. In this case, it wasn’t even close.
That said, I would encourage you to read the Saturday Daily Telegraph article (link above.) There’s a lot else in there about ongoing studies by the Wuhan Institute of Virology and another nearby lab, the Wuhan Institute of Infectious diseases. There are legitimate concerns about the security of those facilities (see the Washington Post investigations in February of Sensitive but Unclassified cables sent back to Washington regarding this.)
There is no reason to give the Chinese government the benefit if the doubt! They suppress news, cover up revelations that make them look bad, violate human rights as they suppress any independence exhibited by doctors and researchers. They lack freedom of information flow or the rule of law which characterizes free societies.
There are an estimated 5,000 unique Coronaviruses in bats which we haven’t discovered yet. There are millions of bats in that region. We are going to have another outbreak sooner or later. We need to continue to study Coronavirus in this region and we need free governments to apply pressure on the Chinese government and other nations in the region to eradicate wet markets. This madness has to end.
Happy Saturday, folks. Enjoy your day, stay safe, and please keep washing your hands.
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I think a lot of people don't realize that things are going to change the more data we have. Science isn't about confirming a preconceived notion, it's about researching a topic and finding out how it works, and that will change over time. For example: for a long time after T-rex's discovery, scientists thought it stood up straight, dragging its tail on the ground. Around the early 90s, they realized that this position was incorrect and altered it, making Jurassic Park that much cooler.
beer 30
Footballguy
I lose no sleep over Ticketmaster, they have been screwing people over since the 80's. The rest? We all knew it was going to happen, I hate that we've become that society but not a lot you can do to change it.
Battersbox
Footballguy
I have seen a significant body of posters on Twitter that fully believe this is all about gubment favoritism and that Dr. Fauci himself is complicit. I don't personally have that level of cynicism, but many do.
Also, as we all know, half the population refuses to believe that early-treatment hydroxychloroquine is effective and is instead dangerous despite myriad anecdotal reports of positive impacts from around the globe and 60 years of safety. It's interesting to me that for hydroxy, it's not at all about evil pharma and the money they could rake from it, whereas for Remdesivir, it's ALL about evil pharma and the $$$$ they will rake in from it.
The Commish
Footballguy
Read for yourself:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria
Hospitalizations aren't a factor as a criteria other than the hospitals have to be able to handle all the cases they are getting.
jamny
Footballguy
I know. I posted it here when it was first released and ever since have been questioning why they would use new cases as a stat when increased testing will always increase cases. It needs to be a decline in new hospitalizations over 14 days.
-fish-
Footballguy
To the contrary, there has been significant criticism of Trump's investment position in Sanofil, and although anecdotal evidence, especially early results from France, looked positive, peer-reviewed studies with more data showed that it may do more harm than good.
Penguin
Footballguy
Ticketmaster refunded me for my March Madness tickets about two weeks after the tourny was cancelled
- Status
