*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

[the moops]

Well I think that is very local. I took the family out for sit down dinner at a nice Italian place. We had our own booth. Capacity was limited. Could not sit/stand at bar area. Closest table was 6+ feet away. No masks.

I am not sure when I will go back to sitting inside a restaurant. This scares me https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764-f1

Outdoor patios for me please

 

[bucksoh]

Lie # 1

Your wrong!!!! 

 

[Statorama]

I still feel like the people that are at most risk aren't being directly informed on that.  And I can't really wrap my mind around why not.

Nursing homes seem to be getting the message, but those not in homes and outside their lifespan do not seem to.  In fact, anecdotally, the older the person the less likely I tend to see them doing anything at all to avoid risk.  

You're not alone.  I thought I must just not be "in the loop" since I'm not one of those most at risk (I'm old, but I'm not "man yells at clouds" old).  But a lot of anecdotal evidence gives me the vibe that "at risk" folks aren't getting enough information.  And that's crazy to me since Covid is the only thing on TV / radio now.

 

[msommer]

Your wrong!!!! 

*you're

 

[Battersbox]

Been thinking abouy #2.
Here in DK we shut down hard in March and brought the R0 back down under 1, actually to 0.7 per the estimates (this week estimating last week, always). After about a month we start to open up a few things, right around that time we learn that the R0 has crept back up to 0.9, why? No one had an explanation. Anyway, the bits that should open up opened, (kindergarten and school up to 5th grade). The government had chosen the stuff they were advised had the least risk. All trends, cases, hospitalizations, ICU beds, ventilators, deaths keep dropping and there is more thought put into what's more dangerous and what's dangerous. Political negotiations ensue, a second batch of stuff is opened (social distancing is maintained through it all). In the mean time, the R0 has dropped back down to 0.7, despite the kids going back to school. 

So, what I think is going on is that we are still learning where and how this disease spreads. And that we are using what we learn to hypothesize on steps forward, and learning from that.
Hopefully, with all the different approaches to closing down and opening back up we'll learn how to live with covid-19 until we have a vaccine, well knowing that this may take awhile, and likely that there will be setbacks.

I don't think this will be a sprint, this will be at least a 5K if not more, and that YMMV, what works in Denmark may not work in India or the US or Brazil but that doesn't mean we can't learn from each other because knowledge and science will get us through this better than conjecture and feelings.

Good post.

It's shame the 'open things up' and 'stay shut down' arguments tend to swing so binary. It of course should be nuanced.

I think much of the blame for this falls on governments themselves. In March, sure, it made sense to err on the side of caution. But as the weeks and months go by it becomes hard to swallow what is being fed to the masses, especially when leaders say they are simply following the science when sometimes they are doing no such thing. My best example would be schools: the overwhelming evidence from around the world is that kids don't suffer from Covid19 in a measurable way and in fact suffer more from the ancillary effects of NOT going to school. Yet we get governors casting doubt about kids returning to school in the fall. If a governor is simply 'following the science' he should be saying the opposite.

 

[[icon]]

I firmly believe if there is no such evidence, falsely claiming so warrants a permanent ban and IP ban from this site. 

Seconded. @bucksoh do you have the link/evidence of these death threats?  
 

As stated, Mods would love to know if members are doing this. 

 

[RCon]

Good post.

It's shame the 'open things up' and 'stay shut down' arguments tend to swing so binary. It of course should be nuanced.

I think much of the blame for this falls on governments themselves. In March, sure, it made sense to err on the side of caution. But as the weeks and months go by it becomes hard to swallow what is being fed to the masses, especially when leaders say they are simply following the science when sometimes they are doing no such thing. My best example would be schools: the overwhelming evidence from around the world is that kids don't suffer from Covid19 in a measurable way and in fact suffer more from the ancillary effects of NOT going to school. Yet we get governors casting doubt about kids returning to school in the fall. If a governor is simply 'following the science' he should be saying the opposite.

I don't necessarily agree with you about the lack of danger to children, but the bolded may be more than it seems.  Rumors in CT at least that the teachers' union isn't willing to return to school this fall without some significant safety actions.  This may not always be a governor deciding it is/isn't safe.

 

[proteus126]

Your wrong!!!! 

Ok, Jussie.

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

Well I think that is very local. I took the family out for sit down dinner at a nice Italian place. We had our own booth. Capacity was limited. Could not sit/stand at bar area. Closest table was 6+ feet away. No masks.

Definitely. We waited 90 mins at a popular waterfront restaurant on Hilton Head. 300-400 people outside, either dining on the patio,  at the bar or the numerous benches around restaurant. Not a single mask. People tried to social distance the best they could, but most got within 3 ft of others.

 

[proteus126]

Sorry if previously posted. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/over-100-million-in-china-e2-80-99s-northeast-face-renewed-lockdown/ar-BB14ev9M
 

100 million put on lockdown in NE China.

I don’t get it. Higher baseline of cases now than early March. We only controlled it through lockdowns. Why do we think we can trend to less restrictions and also control spread?

We need the R0 to be below 1 for new case #s to retract, and we barely managed that state-by-state with 2 months of aggressive shutdown of public life.

I think we’re on a trajectory to a major uptick in July, in many places.

Will we learn lessons then, or will it be so badly politicized that taking stringent measures to reduce spread becomes a religious battle?

I thought China had this?  Now they are locking down 1/10th of their country?  Such lying MFers.

 

[jobarules]

Very jealous of my brother and sister in law. Both tested positive in march. They are going to Cancun in July. They visit their family all the time. 

 

[shader]

I thought China had this?  Now they are locking down 1/10th of their country?  Such lying MFers.

Or....they view lockdowns as an essential preemptive strategy.

One thing is for sure, China wouldn’t be reopening their country in a week when they also had 100k new cases. 

 

[shader]

Very jealous of my brother and sister in law. Both tested positive in march. They are going to Cancun in July. They visit their family all the time. 

Listened to a podcast where it was speculated that people with immunity would have major advantages over the next year. Pretty interesting 

 

[Morton Muffley]

I don't think you should be conflicted at all. I mean, what is this guy guilty of? Faith in God? I have no issues with his faith in God, but if he was on Facebook (as both he and the article imply he was) and elsewhere touting this as "a fake crisis" that was "blown out of proportion" and "not that serious" and then only after HE suffers personally does he change his perspective...can we not agree that he is guilty of poor judgment? extreme narcissism? endangering the lives of others (words have impact however small and like-minded his audience may be)?  Is that not something I am allowed to be frustrated by?  Is his narcissism not something I can be disgusted by?  Is that not one the seven deadly sins of the faith he follows?  Wow, what a terrible guy. Never claimed he was a terrible guy, only that I was conflicted.  Would ask that you leave the hyperbole out of this.   I mean, the story states that even though he was a doubter, he was abiding by the rules. So, wtf? Well, one can follow the rules and still have a negative impact as I think I presented above.  

Conversely, should we feel compelled to dunk on everyone who was erring on the side of caution who doesn't catch this virus or really get sick in any way? Not sure I even understand this comment.

Thanks for your response.  See my comments embedded above in bold.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Can you link the death threats?  I've never seen anything like that here - this is a genteel place and if that did happen I hope a big hammer came out.

Also, not everywhere has antibody testing readily available.  As far as I know I can't get one.

There weren't any death threats. And unless he had stored blood from Jan/Feb, he has no idea when he contracted C-19. And the first approved tests weren't very good.

I think I understand why people want to be antibody tested, but can you explain how you might alter your behavior based on the results?

 

[proteus126]

Or....they view lockdowns as an essential preemptive strategy.

One thing is for sure, China wouldn’t be reopening their country in a week when they also had 100k new cases. 

Or... they have a serious outbreak they have been suppressing news about.  I doubt they lock up 100M people for a paltry numbers that have been showing up on Worldometers.

 

[Sand]

I think I understand why people want to be antibody tested, but can you explain how you might alter your behavior based on the results?

Based on a sickness I had in late January (a nasty dry cough - never had that before) I think I may have had it.  Now, if I got tested and came back positive it's so far back that knowledge doesn't do anyone any good.  I kinda want to know, but kinda don't.

I went to a conference that week and as far as I know no one that I worked with there has gotten sick.  So at least if I did have it I wouldn't feel bad about going.

 

[Battersbox]

I don't necessarily agree with you about the lack of danger to children, but the bolded may be more than it seems.  Rumors in CT at least that the teachers' union isn't willing to return to school this fall without some significant safety actions.  This may not always be a governor deciding it is/isn't safe.

True, unions will have a lot of say in this. Governors have the bully pulpit however, and if they keep casting doubt on the safety of children, it's more likely the unions and their ranks will go along. But as far as danger to children, the data says it is minimal. It of course will never be zero, but if we are truly 'following the science', then leaders (governors) should be pointing this out.

 

[Sand]

Or... they have a serious outbreak they have been suppressing news about. 

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

So whos having a Memorial Day bbq?

Can you take hydroxychloroquine and drink?

 

[Politician Spock]

Or... they have a serious outbreak they have been suppressing news about.  I doubt they lock up 100M people for a paltry numbers that have been showing up on Worldometers.

Well, on Worldmeters China went from 6 new cases yesterday to 7 new cases today. That's a 17% increase!!!

 

[shader]

Stymied over this. Feel like we’re living in a mass delusion. Great that we’re getting some good news on treatments, but can’t see how we’re not walking toward a buzzsaw in many places. We won’t know for a few weeks.

Yeah I feel the same. In my opinion we aren’t seeing major increases for the same reason that herd immunity works.  A huge swath of the population isn’t putting themselves in harms way.  

But as time goes on, more and more will.  People will get bolder.  They will open up more.  They will stop wearing masks. They will congregate more.  They will take vacations. Slowly that R0 will creep up until it’s rising quickly again.

 

[Morton Muffley]

Very jealous of my brother and sister in law. Both tested positive in march. They are going to Cancun in July. They visit their family all the time. 

They tested positive for Covid or antibodies?  If March, am assuming it is Covid as I don't believe there was an antibody test at that time.  Then again the days all merge together so maybe there was an antibody test in March.  Anyway, my point in asking is that if it was merely an antibody test then it's far more likely than not that it was a false positive than a real positive - in which case you should not be envious at all.  So, for their sake, I hope it was a Covid positive test not an antibody positive test.

 

[jobarules]

They tested positive for Covid or antibodies?  If March, am assuming it is Covid as I don't believe there was an antibody test at that time.  Then again the days all merge together so maybe there was an antibody test in March.  Anyway, my point in asking is that if it was merely an antibody test then it's far more likely than not that it was a false positive than a real positive - in which case you should not be envious at all.  So, for their sake, I hope it was a Covid positive test not an antibody positive test.

Covid

 

[tonydead]

Sorry if previously posted. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/over-100-million-in-china-e2-80-99s-northeast-face-renewed-lockdown/ar-BB14ev9M
 

100 million put on lockdown in NE China.

I don’t get it. Higher baseline of cases now than early March. We only controlled it through lockdowns. Why do we think we can trend to less restrictions and also control spread?

We need the R0 to be below 1 for new case #s to retract, and we barely managed that state-by-state with 2 months of aggressive shutdown of public life.

I think we’re on a trajectory to a major uptick in July, in many places.

Will we learn lessons then, or will it be so badly politicized that taking stringent measures to reduce spread becomes a religious battle?

Not true, we were never locked down.  We had stay at home orders of various degrees, but, far from locked or shut down.  IMO social distancing (and hygiene) does a lot more to control the spread.  We are perfectly capable of doing in restaurants and dry cleaners what we've been doing all along in the grocery stores and the other 60% of business that were deemed essential and never shut down.  Biggest misconception of this whole thing IMO.

 

[matuski]

There weren't any death threats. And unless he had stored blood from Jan/Feb, he has no idea when he contracted C-19. And the first approved tests weren't very good.

I think I understand why people want to be antibody tested, but can you explain how you might alter your behavior based on the results?

I'd be on a plane right now.

 

[Politician Spock]

Not true, we were never locked down.  We had stay at home orders of various degrees, but, far from locked or shut down.  IMO social distancing (and hygiene) does a lot more to control the spread.  We are perfectly capable of doing in restaurants and dry cleaners what we've been doing all along in the grocery stores and the other 60% of business that were deemed essential and never shut down.  Biggest misconception of this whole thing IMO.

Ummmm.... here in Columbus, Ohio we aren't capable of it. https://radio.wosu.org/post/nine-columbus-restaurants-and-bars-cited-social-distancing-violations#stream/0

 

[Battersbox]

Thanks for your response.  See my comments embedded above in bold.

Maybe I read the article too quickly, but didn't it state that he was following guidelines all along despite having doubts? I didn't see anything about him spreading disnfo on Facebook or anything akin to that (if it was implied, I certainly didn't infer it). I also didn't see anything stating he'd put anyone else in danger. I guess I can re-read it, but I didn't get that. It surprises me you were able to infer so much about this guy from what was written.

And poor judgement? Maybe. But to me what he did was the opposite of narcissism, since he doubted the situation but followed the rules anyway. He literally made his own beliefs secondary to those of others (if he really did follow guidelines). Many of us have doubted certain aspects of this situation. Sometimes we're vindicated, sometimes we're wrong. I don't know if its fair to say 'this guy didn't take this as seriously as I think he should have, therefore he put lives in danger through his words'. I feel like that's jumping to a big conclusion. 

My last sentence was poorly written, apologies for that. What I meant was: It seems arbitrary to pick out one single person (who wasn't sufficiently afraid of the virus) who tested positive and subsequently got sick and to write a story about him. It would be just as arbitrary and imo foolish to find the most paranoid person possible who has taken every precaution and then write a story about how he didn't get sick. It's meaningless Monday morning quarterbacking. 

All of us have varying degrees of fear about both ourselves and others. That doesn't make it more or less justified for any one of us to get sick. 
 

 

[Mr.Pack]

Things turning back to normal at the home depot

Went to the one in West Allis, WI. yesterday. We bought plants and flowers from the outside garden center. However to pay you had to wait in line to go into the store only to go through the store to come back outside to the Garden area to pay. Dumbest thing I've ever seen. It was literally a 10ft walk to pay at the outdoor garden cashier.

 

[-fish-]

Not true, we were never locked down.  We had stay at home orders of various degrees, but, far from locked or shut down.  IMO social distancing (and hygiene) does a lot more to control the spread.  We are perfectly capable of doing in restaurants and dry cleaners what we've been doing all along in the grocery stores and the other 60% of business that were deemed essential and never shut down.  Biggest misconception of this whole thing IMO.

Dry cleaners, sure.  Restaurants, maybe not.   The risk is exposure + time.   Sitting indoors in a restaurant for an hour an a half is a fairly risky thing to do.   Going into your dry cleaner for 5 minutes is much less.   Dry cleaners never closed in Washington, by the way, so I'm not sure why you've included them.   

 

[tonydead]

Ummmm.... here in Columbus, Ohio we aren't capable of it. https://radio.wosu.org/post/nine-columbus-restaurants-and-bars-cited-social-distancing-violations#stream/0

They are, they choose not to.  Thus the citations and visit from the Po Po. 

 

[tonydead]

Maybe I read the article too quickly, but didn't it state that he was following guidelines all along despite having doubts?
 

He continued his rideshare job until he got sick in April.  Since he trusted in God, I'm assumimg he wasn't practising any sort of precautions.  

 

[Politician Spock]

They are, they choose not to.  Thus the citations and visit from the Po Po. 

A person is capable of it. 

People are not. 

 

[Mr.Pack]

I have a meeting at work next week regarding new protocols and I am being told we are aiming for a June 1st opening at 50% of what we used to do.

I have a friend who's top level management at a Life Ins company. He is in Phase 4 of their returning to work policy..... He returns to his office April 2021 .

Until then he'll be working from home.

 

[The Commish]

Ummmm.... here in Columbus, Ohio we aren't capable of it. https://radio.wosu.org/post/nine-columbus-restaurants-and-bars-cited-social-distancing-violations#stream/0

We can post anecdote after anecdote of idiots not able to control themselves and not have the self awareness to do the right thing.  It's not changing minds though.  Around me, we've had multiple people arrested for aggravated assault for coughing on other people...it's disgusting how many behave.

 

[tonydead]

A person is capable of it. 

People are not. 

Restaurants have the right to refuse service.

 

[Politician Spock]

Restaurants have the right to refuse service.

There's no profit in doing that. 

 

[tonydead]

Dry cleaners, sure.  Restaurants, maybe not.   The risk is exposure + time.   Sitting indoors in a restaurant for an hour an a half is a fairly risky thing to do.   Going into your dry cleaner for 5 minutes is much less.   Dry cleaners never closed in Washington, by the way, so I'm not sure why you've included them.   

They were included as closed in my survey of businesses because the one we always use had shuttered and hasn't reopened since.  But it looks like you are correct.  Weird, I wonder what happened to them.

 

[tonydead]

There's no profit in doing that. 

More profit than getting shut down again for not following the rules.  Your link shows a lot of willing customers, supply and demand.  Less seats, raise prices.

 

[Morton Muffley]

Maybe I read the article too quickly, but didn't it state that he was following guidelines all along despite having doubts? I didn't see anything about him spreading disnfo on Facebook or anything akin to that (if it was implied, I certainly didn't infer it). I also didn't see anything stating he'd put anyone else in danger. I guess I can re-read it, but I didn't get that. It surprises me you were able to infer so much about this guy from what was written.

And poor judgement? Maybe. But to me what he did was the opposite of narcissism, since he doubted the situation but followed the rules anyway. He literally made his own beliefs secondary to those of others (if he really did follow guidelines). Many of us have doubted certain aspects of this situation. Sometimes we're vindicated, sometimes we're wrong. I don't know if its fair to say 'this guy didn't take this as seriously as I think he should have, therefore he put lives in danger through his words'. I feel like that's jumping to a big conclusion. 

My last sentence was poorly written, apologies for that. What I meant was: It seems arbitrary to pick out one single person (who wasn't sufficiently afraid of the virus) who tested positive and subsequently got sick and to write a story about him. It would be just as arbitrary and imo foolish to find the most paranoid person possible who has taken every precaution and then write a story about how he didn't get sick. It's meaningless Monday morning quarterbacking. 

All of us have varying degrees of fear about both ourselves and others. That doesn't make it more or less justified for any one of us to get sick. 
 

Thanks.  You are right.  I was definitely inferring that his post-infection FB posting was due to the fact that he didn't simply keep his strong opinions to himself, but instead shared them with others.  I still think it's a fair assumption that someone who is 1) on FB and 2) previously thought of Covid as a "fake crisis" and 3) after contracting felt the need to do a mea culpa about how wrong he was about Covid was likely doing it as mea culpa and not simply to help others see the light.  But you are definitely correct that is WAS an assumption and therefore may have been a poor one on my part.  Reagardless, he wasn't really the subject on my post, I was.  I was simply trying to express my inner conflict, however poorly founded.  That conflict was never really about him, but rather what he represents and my disappointment in myself for feeling the way I feel about those who act as such.  Anyway, the moment has passed and maybe tomorrow I will manage to do better: to be more charitable.  Thanks   

 

[Politician Spock]

More profit than getting shut down again for not following the rules.  Your link shows a lot of willing customers, supply and demand.  Less seats, raise prices.

Restaurants make razor thin margins at 100% capacity. To make a profit at 50% capacity would require prices to be doubled. 

 

[tonydead]

Restaurants make razor thin margins at 100% capacity. To make a profit at 50% capacity would require prices to be doubled. 

I'd pay that right now.  Let's do this.

Spoiler

And how you explain it, really isn't true.  No restaurant is at 100% capacity from the time the open to the time they close.  Restaurants I go to have been in business for decades and I've never had to wait for a table.  Still, logic applies, wait in line pay more.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Not all antibodies that bind a pathogenic particle are neutralizing. Non-neutralizing antibodies, or binding antibodies, bind specifically to the pathogen, but do not interfere with their infectivity. that might be because they do not bind to the right region. Non-neutralising antibodies can be important to flag the particle for immune cells, signaling that it has been targeted, after which the particle is processed and consequently destroyed by recruited immune cells.[9] Neutralizing antibodies on the other hand can neutralize the biological effects of the antigen without a need for immune cells. In some cases, non-neutralising antibodies or insufficient amounts of neutralising antibodies binding to virus particles can be utilised by some virus species to facilitate uptake into their host cells. This mechanism is know as antibody-dependent enhancement.[10] It has been observed for Dengue virus and Zika virus.[11]

@Doug B hopefully this makes the distinction clear.

One other consequence I hadn't considered is the importance of which antibody type is tested for determining immunity. As I understand things, most of the current SARS-CoV-2 tests only measure binding antibodies. Assuming neutralizing Ab are the ones doing the heavy lifting in preventing re-infection (likely IMO), you'd ideally test for them exclusively.

To summarize the problems with antibody testing:

1. There is a window when an infected individual will test negative for antibodies, generally a week or so, but sometimes up to ~3 weeks after symptoms' onset. Add another 5 days if you want to count back to the initial exposure. 

2. Assuming a low community prevalence, say 10% or less, the tests must be extremely specific (~99%) to minimize the false positive rate. 

3. Measuring binding antibodies is not a good correlate of immunity. 

4. We aren't even sure if neutralizing antibodies provide long-term, complete Covid immunity.

For all these reasons, IMO it's premature to be relying on antibody testing for most purposes. If you're going to get tested, it's important to understand these limitations, especially if the test result causes you to alter your behavior and potentially put yourself/others at risk.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Also, please don't use unsterile (tap) water for nasal irrigation.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

For all these reasons, IMO it's premature to be relying on antibody testing for most purposes. If you're going to get tested, it's important to understand these limitations, especially if the test result causes you to alter your behavior and potentially put yourself/others at risk.

So this vaccine test that produced binding antibodies... is it cause for celebration?  Cautious optimism?  Another grifter's gonna grift moment?  How do you read the Moderna news today?

 

[tonydead]

Went to the one in West Allis, WI. yesterday. We bought plants and flowers from the outside garden center. However to pay you had to wait in line to go into the store only to go through the store to come back outside to the Garden area to pay. Dumbest thing I've ever seen. It was literally a 10ft walk to pay at the outdoor garden cashier.

Our garden area and checkout was open for the first time last week, that I noticed anyway.

 

[prosopis]

I have a meeting at work next week regarding new protocols and I am being told we are aiming for a June 1st opening at 50% of what we used to do.

I work in Ambulatory surgery in the Arizona desert.

* I do have some concern that the "meeting" next week will just screw up my unemployment. 

E mail from work cancelling our meeting which was supposed to be on Wednesday. No mention of if we are still opening on June 1st.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I've posted a few times in various threads here about how rarely (pretty much never) I've heard public coughing/sneezing over the last two months or so. Maybe one of the side effects of the lockdowns is to tamp down infections of garden-variety rhinoviruses and such.

But anyway -- perhaps that will be kind of an unsung frontier: How will the "publicly sick" be treated in the short and medium terms? Used to be, in most jobs, "just a cold" was nowhere near sufficient cover to take a day and leave coworkers and/or bosses in a lurch. So, generally, "just a cold" people were generally out and about not just at jobs, but in retail, groceries, drugstores (natch), school events, recreation, etc.

Is that general "just a cold" ethic going to come back at some point? 

I'm hoping behavioral modification leads to decreases in upper respiratory illnesses, including the flu next winter. And I hope vaccination rates go up for all preventable illnesses.

 

[Terminalxylem]

You're not alone.  I thought I must just not be "in the loop" since I'm not one of those most at risk (I'm old, but I'm not "man yells at clouds" old).  But a lot of anecdotal evidence gives me the vibe that "at risk" folks aren't getting enough information.  And that's crazy to me since Covid is the only thing on TV / radio now.

I wonder if it has to do with mixed messages from leadership, and the types of media "at risk" people are consuming?

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'd be on a plane right now.

Destination?