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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

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The cigarette box literally says MAY CAUSE CANCER and yet millions still smoke. And people are shocked that not everyone wants to wear a mask when the message is MAY PREVENT SPREAD.
Nicotine is physically addictive and people suffer from withdrawal when they try to quit. Terrible comparison.

 
You are trying so hard to poke holes in an analogy by creating your own really flawed analogy. 1% of all people that go out in public without a mask don't die within or kill somebody within a month, so your analogy makes no sense. And the month time frame is irrelevant anyway since he already said that it would obviously take longer.

We know for a fact smoking causes serious health problems and has been universally acknowledged to do so for many years. Masks have only been endorsed for a short period of time, were actually actively campaigned against as recently as a few months ago by all the same "experts", and don't have the same level of certainty behind them. 

And I say all of this as somebody that is documented pro mask in this thread longer than most.  

Man this thread is weird sometimes.
I disagree but won’t clutter the thread after this.  Cigarettes bring pleasure and are enjoyed by millions of people, despite their obvious risks

(I’ve never smoked and would never encourage anyone to smoke, for the record)

Not wearing a mask is just a crappy thing to do, for no reason at all.  
 

Terrible analogy, I’m moving on.

 
Any California FBG's that can shed some light on how widespread mask usage is?  According to google, California instituted a mask mandate almost exactly a month ago.

But...I've read reports that not all counties are following that.  

California's cases are on a a steady rise over the past month, and their early mask mandate represents our best chance of getting data (that I can tell) from a state that is in an outbreak scenario.
Better now. Bunch of anti maskers in Orange County. Last to come along. 

 
I get the analogy.  I don't agree with it.  I don't like the "it's not going to change" line.

Smoking is obviously disastrous for your health longterm.  But many of us do things that we know could one day take years off our life.  We eat crappy food when we know we shouldn't.  We don't exercise like we should.  Some drink more than they should, etc.  It's quite easy to rationalize away behaviors that have long-term effects by thinking that we'll one day get in shape/quit smoking, etc.

This is a pandemic that is affecting people right now.  If 1% of people that smoked died within a month, I doubt anyone would pick up a cigarette.  If picking up that cigarette could directly kill other people within a month, we definitely wouldn't smoke.

I see where you're going with the analogy, but I think it falls quite short.  People need to be shown the seriousness of this virus, told to mask up and stay away from others, and if that messaging was out there being drilled into people's heads, they'd listen and do what needs to be done.  Unfortunately, many people aren't being told those things.

This isn't a matter of an educated public being told the risks and deciding not to follow, this is a matter of an uneducated public getting mixed signals from everywhere and making ridiculous decisions that they wouldn't make if they were being told the truth by the people they listen to and respect.
Except those same people consistenly choosing the crappy food and not exercising are landing the more serious covid cases thus inflating the numbers. This pandemic wouldn't be affecting as many people if we were healthy.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200714/why-obesity-may-stack-the-deck-for-covid-19-risk

Be sure to judge them as harsh as you do the anti-maskers. 

 
Worldometer death data (best to worst)

#1 - Hawaii - 1 death per 64,358 residents (22 out of 1,415,876)
#10 - Kansas - 1 death per 9,552 residents (305 out of 2,913,335)
#20 - North Carolina - 1 death per 6,419 residents (1,634 out of 10,488,073)
#30 - Ohio - 1 death per 3,748 residents (3,119 out of 11,689,049)
#40 - Pennsylvania - 1 death per 1,812 residents (7,066 out of 12,802,081)
#50 - New Jersey - 1 death per 564 residents (15,757 out of 8,882,181)

 
Yeah just looking at your state numbers, it's pretty clear to see that cases are on the rise again.  A bit disconcerting if mask usage is prevalent there.  My biggest worry is that we are spending a massive amount of time and energy on the mask debate, even though we really don't know if masks are enough to actually stop an outbreak that's happening (or from occurring)
Mask use indoors nearly 100% here (statewide mandate from months ago). Outside maybe 20-30%, even lower at some crowded beaches. While our overall case counts are low, we’ve been trending up the last couple weeks, both cases and hospitalizations. Several clusters in multigenerational housing and a nursing home.

Today that nursing home had 2/3 of its staff call in sick, so they can no longer care for their 8 COVID patients. They’re being allocated to hospitals throughout the island. Assuming those workers have COVID too, those hospital beds will be occupied for two weeks minimum.

Even with only 20-40 cases per day and good mask compliance, it feels like this is getting ready to blow up.

 
Worldometer death data (best to worst)

#1 - Hawaii - 1 death per 64,358 residents (22 out of 1,415,876)
#10 - Kansas - 1 death per 9,552 residents (305 out of 2,913,335)
#20 - North Carolina - 1 death per 6,419 residents (1,634 out of 10,488,073)
#30 - Ohio - 1 death per 3,748 residents (3,119 out of 11,689,049)
#40 - Pennsylvania - 1 death per 1,812 residents (7,066 out of 12,802,081)
#50 - New Jersey - 1 death per 564 residents (15,757 out of 8,882,181)
Where’s CT?

 
Except those same people consistenly choosing the crappy food and not exercising are landing the more serious covid cases thus inflating the numbers. This pandemic wouldn't be affecting as many people if we were healthy.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200714/why-obesity-may-stack-the-deck-for-covid-19-risk

Be sure to judge them as harsh as you do the anti-maskers. 
I'll dig it out in a bit, but there's a new heat map looking at blood markers suggesting lactate threshold is a huge indication of death.  Not a shock.  At all.  

 
I was in the ER last night in a state with a mask mandate.  The nurses were at their station, 6 or them at least sitting side by side and talking in a group with masks down.  The doctors were walking around without masks.  I saw a police officer walk through without a mask.  I'm not even sure why they bothered "scanning" me on the way in. 

I'm aware of another huge practice that had a covid positive staff member.  Next business day they were open for business as usual.

It's our culture that's the issue and leadership isn't going to change it.  We can crap on our culture, but it's the same culture of risk taking that has brought so much innovation and entertainment to the world.
To be fair, I'm next to my fellow nurses for hours at a time....that's one scenario where masks aren't really going to be much help, and I've clearly been arguing for them here. Not saying they shouldn't have had them in place even if only to set a good example.............

 
To be fair, I'm next to my fellow nurses for hours at a time....that's one scenario where masks aren't really going to be much help, and I've clearly been arguing for them here. Not saying they shouldn't have had them in place even if only to set a good example.............
Huh? That’s exactly where masks are going to help.

 
Huh? That’s exactly where masks are going to help.
Ummmmmm......if you're sitting directly next to somebody for 2+ hours, a simple mask is worthless. 5 or 10 minutes? Walking past in a store? Very different story.

BUt not a helpful discussion at this point in time

 
This thread took the weirdest ####### turn. How are cigarettes and masks even being compared?
Pretty simple. 

Somebody said we shouldnt be surprised there are people that disregard common sense medical advice for selfish reasons because look at all the smokers. You know people that make themselves and others sick and just continue to do it. 

But somehow people got defensive over a perfectly reasonable comparison. 

And here we are. 

 
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Not breaking out on my nose has been pretty great since freshman year of high school. Probably just a coincidence thats happening at my age now.  
Breaking out on my chin here. Been weird. Hadn't thought about why until today. Just figured it was the heat around here or lack of washing my face enough (I do, but compared to washing my hands, it's nothing). 

 
Worldometer death data (best to worst)

#1 - Hawaii - 1 death per 64,358 residents (22 out of 1,415,876)
#10 - Kansas - 1 death per 9,552 residents (305 out of 2,913,335)
#20 - North Carolina - 1 death per 6,419 residents (1,634 out of 10,488,073)
#30 - Ohio - 1 death per 3,748 residents (3,119 out of 11,689,049)
#40 - Pennsylvania - 1 death per 1,812 residents (7,066 out of 12,802,081)
#50 - New Jersey - 1 death per 564 residents (15,757 out of 8,882,181)


Where’s CT?
Connecticut ranks 48th with 1 death per 811 residents (4,396 out of 3,565,284)

To give you an idea of how bad New England got hit early on, here are some amazing numbers...

Florida just passed CT in overall deaths, but is nowhere near CT's death rate.
Florida ranks 27th with 1 death per 4,470 residents (4,805 out of 21,477,729)
To reach CT levels, FL would need to have 21,678 more deaths, and that's if CT has no more deaths.  FL's single day record is 156, and at that pace, FL will equal CT's death per resident in 4 and a half months.

 
Pretty simple. 

Somebody said we shouldnt be surprised there are people that disregard common sense medical advice for selfish reasons because look at all the smokers. You know people that make themselves and others sick and just continue to do it. 

But somehow people got defensive over a perfectly reasonable comparison. 

And here we are. 
Hello exactly 

People like to argue for the sake of arguing.

 
No relief at Covid worldometers.  New cases over 240,000.  U.S. new cases hit a new high, just shy of 75,000.  Remember when things first started to settle down in late May/early June and we were seeing less than 25,000 new cases per day?  Yeesh.  Deaths of 946 in the U.S. keeps our trend line steady for the past two weeks ...let's see what happens over the next few weeks as a result of the increased number of cases. 

Beyond the deaths, though, reading about the effects of this virus are super scary.  I saw a friend's FB post where he was apparently quoting Dr. Fauci, who pointed out the long-term, never-really-gone effects of viruses such as chicken pox, herpes, and HIV.  Anyone who recovers from this virus and thinks, "well that wasn't too bad" could be in for a rude awakening in the months, years, and even decades ahead.  :shudder: 

 
Except those same people consistenly choosing the crappy food and not exercising are landing the more serious covid cases thus inflating the numbers. This pandemic wouldn't be affecting as many people if we were healthy.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200714/why-obesity-may-stack-the-deck-for-covid-19-risk

Be sure to judge them as harsh as you do the anti-maskers. 
There’s an argument to be made that they are making the situation worse but not nearly to the level of those not wearing masks.

ETA - although I’m struggling on the numbers being inflated - need that explained

 
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It was 107 here this week. Wearing a mask didn't cause me to stroke out or anything. Unless you work outside, how big of a deal can it be going from your air conditioned car to the front entry of the grocery store?
Did you "enjoy" wearing it? Thats literally all I said but let's argue for the sake arguing on this site yet again.

 
No relief at Covid worldometers.  New cases over 240,000.  U.S. new cases hit a new high, just shy of 75,000.  Remember when things first started to settle down in late May/early June and we were seeing less than 25,000 new cases per day?  Yeesh.  Deaths of 946 in the U.S. keeps our trend line steady for the past two weeks ...let's see what happens over the next few weeks as a result of the increased number of cases. 

Beyond the deaths, though, reading about the effects of this virus are super scary.  I saw a friend's FB post where he was apparently quoting Dr. Fauci, who pointed out the long-term, never-really-gone effects of viruses such as chicken pox, herpes, and HIV.  Anyone who recovers from this virus and thinks, "well that wasn't too bad" could be in for a rude awakening in the months, years, and even decades ahead.  :shudder: 
These are really bad numbers with a disease we don't yet understand. Awful.

 
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There’s an argument to be made that they are making the situation worse but not nearly to the level of those not wearing masks.
There is no way to know that.

Asymptomatic spread is still unknown for %'s and it is unknown the efficacy of some of the piece of crap masks out there. 

I pointed this out months ago, but the shift from shaming people that were wearing masks to now the shaming of people not wearing them has been wild. 

 
No relief at Covid worldometers.  New cases over 240,000.  U.S. new cases hit a new high, just shy of 75,000.  Remember when things first started to settle down in late May/early June and we were seeing less than 25,000 new cases per day?  Yeesh.  Deaths of 946 in the U.S. keeps our trend line steady for the past two weeks ...let's see what happens over the next few weeks as a result of the increased number of cases. 

Beyond the deaths, though, reading about the effects of this virus are super scary.  I saw a friend's FB post where he was apparently quoting Dr. Fauci, who pointed out the long-term, never-really-gone effects of viruses such as chicken pox, herpes, and HIV.  Anyone who recovers from this virus and thinks, "well that wasn't too bad" could be in for a rude awakening in the months, years, and even decades ahead.  :shudder: 
Clearly we need to just stop testing so that cases don’t continue to rise.  🙄

Great point about the long term effects.  Very scary.

 
"Across the Jackson Health System hospitals, we currently have 445 inpatients who have tested positive for COVID-19, and we have safely discharged a total of 1,466 since the pandemic began."

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1284221378200252417?cxt=HHwWgsC1ycKivNIjAAAA

About 5 weeks ago, Jackson Health COVID-19 cases had trended down to 100 daily cases. Many thought the disease was burning out.
I went and looked at their Twitter account and on 7/10, a week ago, they were at 375 / 1225. So the bad news is that they're gaining a net 10 patients a day. The good news is they're releasing 34 patients a day.

 
There is no way to know that.

Asymptomatic spread is still unknown for %'s and it is unknown the efficacy of some of the piece of crap masks out there. 

I pointed this out months ago, but the shift from shaming people that were wearing masks to now the shaming of people not wearing them has been wild. 
Your claim is obese people are contributing more to the Coronavirus pandemic than people who don’t wear masks?  I find that hard to believe - not saying I have data otherwise but on its face that seems difficult to believe.  

 
Clearly we need to just stop testing so that cases don’t continue to rise.  🙄
Between that statement and the recent one about not ordering Americans to wear masks to contain the spread of coronavirus, I can’t think of better leadership heading into the biggest super spreader event possible in the next month as schools open up  :thumbup:  🇺🇸

might as well stock up on water, tp and whatever crazy #### people were hoarding during the lockdown that wasn’t a lockdown in March. Get ahead of the curve this time.

So, how’s the vermicelli game in your town?

 
Wasn't sure if this got shared in here. Man I hope it's wrong, we need a win. 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/amp/coronavirus-antibodies-vaccine-fading-covid-15415698.php
I don’t understand this - nobody has permanent immunity to the flu so why is this any different?

After reading more it’s more that the antibodies go away over time too quickly.  Is it just a matter of finding a vaccine that helps the antibodies stay for a year until you get another one?

 
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Death counts per state is a worthy discussion.  But before we begin, a question...

Overall, are states reporting COVID deaths fairly similar?  By this, I mean, if I look at the numbers from Worldometer, would there be a real concern that a bunch of states are wildly off on their numbers?  Over or underreporting?  If so, which states are way off?  I want to dig a little deeper into the death tolls, but I fear if I use the numbers on Worldometer, many people will simply say the numbers are wrong, and therefore the data is meaningless.
You most likely don't want to have a conversation with those people in the first place :shrug:  

 
Did you "enjoy" wearing it? Thats literally all I said but let's argue for the sake arguing on this site yet again.
I wasn't arguing for the sake of arguing. In fact, I didn't think I was arguing at all. Truth be told, on the short jaunts where I am exposed to heat, I honestly don't even notice it at this point, which is kind of what I was saying. I neither enjoy it nor am bothered by it in the slightest. Unless I had a physical ailment making it currently uncomfortable, (cut behind my ear, giant nose zit, whatever), I just don't see how people find it inconvenient, yet alone uncomfortable, in the minute it takes to traverse the parking lot. The whole thing just strikes me as odd.

 
Your claim is obese people are contributing more to the Coronavirus pandemic than people who don’t wear masks?  I find that hard to believe - not saying I have data otherwise but on its face that seems difficult to believe.  
They are for sure getting sicker and clogging the hospitals up

 
Florida Purposely Hosting 400+ House Parties

I posted this a couple weeks ago, maybe a month ago. Again, we have this utopian POV that we can enforce things on people and also aiming at the wrong folks...hate to say it but this proves that Two events that do not really have anything to do with each other has been mixed into the same conversation and it really muddies the waters when you are trying to get folks to follow simple guidelines. 

Not blaming or pinning it on any one group of folks, but this is an example of the things that are happening and we have folks screaming and crying about a couple people not wearing a mask indoors, this blows any of that good work out of the water in just a couple hours of "fun". 

 
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Who exactly thought that?
Let's see...we were going to be open at Easter, then it was May 1st in time for the Summer Movie season, then we were shooting for the 4th of July and they closed the beaches which did NOTHING to stop anything, in fact it made it worse because people locked themselves indoors but had parties of people over which i just posted about...

-We were re-opening in May, you know what re-open means to the average citizen right? Not the folks who frequent in here and have it all figured out but you know, real people who work minimum wage jobs, were told they might be out of work a few weeks which then became unemployment checks. 

I think it's naive to think people were not told this would burn out or fade out, many were under that impression even if you weren't. Rather than be in shock that anyone is so ignorant, maybe we could be honest about how things were portrayed to most Americans when we had daily updates on the TV. 

Can't assume everyone is as bright as you, friend. 

 
I wasn't arguing for the sake of arguing. In fact, I didn't think I was arguing at all. Truth be told, on the short jaunts where I am exposed to heat, I honestly don't even notice it at this point, which is kind of what I was saying. I neither enjoy it nor am bothered by it in the slightest. Unless I had a physical ailment making it currently uncomfortable, (cut behind my ear, giant nose zit, whatever), I just don't see how people find it inconvenient, yet alone uncomfortable, in the minute it takes to traverse the parking lot. The whole thing just strikes me as odd.
Sorry for my harshness last night. I was a little drunk.

I wear them. I find them very uncomfortable wearing them especially for long times in the heat but I wear them. But nobody enjoys wearing them and thats all my post was saying which is why I find it weird someone took issue with it. Just like someone took issue with me saying it doesn't shock me people are being selfish or ignoring their own health by not wearing masks. Just look at all the cigarette smokers we have in this world.

 
Your claim is obese people are contributing more to the Coronavirus pandemic than people who don’t wear masks?  I find that hard to believe - not saying I have data otherwise but on its face that seems difficult to believe.  
My claim is that your claim is not based on any kind of data at all and could easily be incorrect.

You cant tell me the % of asymptomatic folks spreading this. 

You cant tell me infectious dose.

You cant even tell me the % of cases that are transmitted via places that we are upset about people not wearing masks.

Grocery stores, hardware stores, etc have not been thought to be big contributors and that is where we are complaining about people not wearing a mask the most. I also imagine that anti maskers skew more rural where obviously spread has been less and a mask is less important. 

Now with all these places rolling out mask requirements soon we might be able to get a better idea of the level of masking effectiveness.

The flip side to this is obesity is obviously the #1 comorbidity here. We know it contributes a huge amount to the deaths. Now of course there is the discussion of how to weigh cases vs deaths vs hospitalizations. 

We also know that there are places that are much healthier and have low mask compliance and have fared far better. 

The evolution on this has been wild. Asymptomatic spread has gone from impossible and masks have gone from worthless to now so powerful that people are 100% sure that asymptomatic anti-maskers outweigh a comorbidity with like 45% representation in deaths for total effect(no pun intended). 

 
I don’t understand this - nobody has permanent immunity to the flu so why is this any different?

After reading more it’s more that the antibodies go away over time too quickly.  Is it just a matter of finding a vaccine that helps the antibodies stay for a year until you get another one?
That's what I got out of it. If it's needed annually, that would work. But if you need a booster every 3-4 months that's not going to imo. 

 
They are for sure getting sicker and clogging the hospitals up
Completely agree and that was why I said there's a conversation to be had.  Do we have large numbers that were turned away or dying because their wasn't a bed/ventilator?  There's literally no way to know who is "right" because there's no way to get data on folks not wearing masks.  My point is, on face value, it doesn't seem to make sense that we should shame fat people more than non-mask wearers.

 
My claim is that your claim is not based on any kind of data at all and could easily be incorrect.

You cant tell me the % of asymptomatic folks spreading this. 

You cant tell me infectious dose.

You cant even tell me the % of cases that are transmitted via places that we are upset about people not wearing masks.

Grocery stores, hardware stores, etc have not been thought to be big contributors and that is where we are complaining about people not wearing a mask the most. I also imagine that anti maskers skew more rural where obviously spread has been less and a mask is less important. 

Now with all these places rolling out mask requirements soon we might be able to get a better idea of the level of masking effectiveness.

The flip side to this is obesity is obviously the #1 comorbidity here. We know it contributes a huge amount to the deaths. Now of course there is the discussion of how to weigh cases vs deaths vs hospitalizations. 

We also know that there are places that are much healthier and have low mask compliance and have fared far better. 

The evolution on this has been wild. Asymptomatic spread has gone from impossible and masks have gone from worthless to now so powerful that people are 100% sure that asymptomatic anti-maskers outweigh a comorbidity with like 45% representation in deaths for total effect(no pun intended). 
What did you think my claim was?  I have a feeling we are discussing two different things.

ETA - I've also said a couple of times that I'm basing this not on data but rather on "gut" 

 
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Who exactly thought that?
Several data scientist on Twitter with varying degrees of epidemiological expertise, usually none. Some of the graphs are informative and bring up valid points to consider, such as lagging deaths, died/admitted with COVID versus died/admitted with COVIDZ. Many also rightfully question the inaccuracies of some state models. Most, but not all, are agenda driven such as Ethical Skeptic and Justin Hart. GummiBear and Hold2LLC are more intellectually honest. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1284263004801060865

 
Let's see...we were going to be open at Easter, then it was May 1st in time for the Summer Movie season, then we were shooting for the 4th of July and they closed the beaches which did NOTHING to stop anything, in fact it made it worse because people locked themselves indoors but had parties of people over which i just posted about...

-We were re-opening in May, you know what re-open means to the average citizen right? Not the folks who frequent in here and have it all figured out but you know, real people who work minimum wage jobs, were told they might be out of work a few weeks which then became unemployment checks. 

I think it's naive to think people were not told this would burn out or fade out, many were under that impression even if you weren't. Rather than be in shock that anyone is so ignorant, maybe we could be honest about how things were portrayed to most Americans when we had daily updates on the TV. 

Can't assume everyone is as bright as you, friend. 
This is 100% true. Most Americans underestimated this thing. Thanks in large part to the federal leadership downplaying it. 

 
I just had one of the most chilling, surprising, exciting and depressing experiences that I have had in awhile...all over a pretty silly and mundane thing. I was out for a morning walk, enjoying my iced coffee through the well maintained and manicured neighborhood of my small suburban downtown. All of a sudden I felt a rush and a smile, but I didn't know why. As I walked a bit more, I could hear it. It was muffled and I couldn't make out the words but I know the sound as clear as any. Someone was playing an old (obviously) radio broadcast of a Detroit Tigers game. I couldn't make out what year but there is no mistaking what it was. For a moment, it flashed in my body that maybe lockdown was all a dream, then I felt a surge of nostalgia for typical summer days, my youth, the boys of summer, the girls of summer. Then I was hit with the sunken shoulders of reality. 

Perhaps the start of MLB in a few weeks will bring back some bit of joy and normalcy. Things might feel a bit more real if I can just see the Tigers lose 10-3 to the Royals. 

 
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