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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

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McBokonon said:
- he said in response to the CNN article reporting the thing he implies they won't report.
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I think he was implying that they havent reported much about the upswing. This article was after a state of emergency was declared. 

Reasonable to conclude they didnt declare a state of emergency out of the blue. 

All that being said, I have no idea if there are other articles from CNN about this topic. 

 
San Antonio having a great couple week run with hospitalizations taking a nosedive - down 30+%, ICU down ~20%, recoveries skyrocketing.

 
The WHA in WI has been great for getting hospitalization data, but since the DHS change they have barely been reporting and when they do there are wild swings.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Link to data? 

Is San Antonio an isolated island off the coast of Texas, or do they share the land mass with other parts of Texas?
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Our local government dashboard.

Not hard to find.

eta - I certainly take the numbers with a healthy dose of cynicism, but I figure it is worth noting the positive trends you would never see or hear about if you didn't dig for them.

 
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Osaurus said:
Grace Under Pressure said:
Are the Florida numbers reliable? Not a fan of changes midstream on trending data, so forgive me for being skeptical, but the declines seem to coincide closely with the change in data reporting to HHS instead of to the CDC.

I also see a lot of individual hospital system level reporting, both in Florida and Texas. Not a fan of that either.
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Many people believe their numbers are not reliable including me.
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I can't speak to how accurate the state site is anymore.  Our local news has done a great job of getting numbers directly from the hospitals of the area and it does appear that things are flattening here.  Deaths still shooting up, but those getting sick are flattening.  

After the fiasco with the state site and the Governor not being able to explain why his group wasn't reporting the numbers the institutions were reporting, I don't even bother with the state site anymore...I'm just focused on locally.

 
My wife was tested today. Her asthma has been bothering her since yesterday and her sinuses have been hurting. She went to urgent care. The doc said "could be asthma, could be covid". She had her O2 measured (perfect), an XRay done (perfect) and got the test. Results in 5 days lol. She asked the doc "Isnt that ridiculous?" He said yes. He just said to avoid vulnerable people until she gets the results. He gave her a prescription for prednisone.

 
shadyridr said:
My wife was tested today. Her asthma has been bothering her since yesterday and her sinuses have been hurting. She went to urgent care. The doc said "could be asthma, could be covid". She had her O2 measured (perfect), an XRay done (perfect) and got the test. Results in 5 days lol. She asked the doc "Isnt that ridiculous?" He said yes. He just said to avoid vulnerable people until she gets the results. He gave her a prescription for prednisone.
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That's good.  Lots of people with this are oxygen starved and don't realize it until they crash and are admitted in bad shape.

 
Sand said:
That's good.  Lots of people with this are oxygen starved and don't realize it until they crash and are admitted in bad shape.
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I picked up a pulse oximeter back in March after someone on SSC recommended having one in preparation for Covid.  Love having it for the peace of mind it brings.  For some reason my wife's O2 level is always higher than mine, though.  :kicksrock:

 
matuski said:
Our local government dashboard.

Not hard to find.

eta - I certainly take the numbers with a healthy dose of cynicism, but I figure it is worth noting the positive trends you would never see or hear about if you didn't dig for them.
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What's the cause for the improved numbers?  Have there been behavior or policy changes in San Antonio?

Are there similar improvements in Austin (which I think is the next closest city to SA)?

 
The Z Machine said:
What's the cause for the improved numbers?  Have there been behavior or policy changes in San Antonio?

Are there similar improvements in Austin (which I think is the next closest city to SA)?
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I wonder how much it just burns out in these hotspots.  I guess we're about to see if cases start spiking in NJ, NY, and WA.

 
matuski said:
Our local government dashboard.

Not hard to find.

eta - I certainly take the numbers with a healthy dose of cynicism, but I figure it is worth noting the positive trends you would never see or hear about if you didn't dig for them.
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Agreed on the healthy skepticism, and I did find the dashboard, thanks: SA Dashboard

The hospitalizations are declining, which is great. They still have a long way to go.

  • Currently 851 are in the hospital in Bexar county, which has about 2 million residents.
  • In the state of NY, which has 19 million residents, around 550 are in the hospital.
  • Long Island, which has 3 million residents, has around 85 hospitalizations.
That's the point about SA vs. the state view. Sure, when you get down to a micro enough level the numbers can become tolerable to look at. But taking the state of Texas as a whole, the hospitalizations are still at critically high levels.

Hopefully it is trending better statewide as well. Rooting for all states to get this beat. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Agreed on the healthy skepticism, and I did find the dashboard, thanks: SA Dashboard

The hospitalizations are declining, which is great. They still have a long way to go.

  • Currently 851 are in the hospital in Bexar county, which has about 2 million residents.
  • In the state of NY, which has 19 million residents, around 550 are in the hospital.
  • Long Island, which has 3 million residents, has around 85 hospitalizations.
That's the point about SA vs. the state view. Sure, when you get down to a micro enough level the numbers can become tolerable to look at. But taking the state of Texas as a whole, the hospitalizations are still at critically high levels.

Hopefully it is trending better statewide as well. Rooting for all states to get this beat. 
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Also, I should show numbers if I'm asking for numbers:

NY State Dashboard - Hospitalizations

 
This is so true. We have a paper accepted for @bmj_latest arguing that the 1- or 2-metre physical distancing rule is essentially meaningless. Need to take account of indoor v outdoor, ventilation levels, type of activity, masks and much more. Outdoors is MUCH safer!
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@trishgreenhalgh

I will be interested to see when this is published. I am sure this is hyperbole as she can be prone to that in some tweets, but will still be curious to read. 

She is a professor of primary care at oxford and has been a good follow for covid info. 

 
Scolding Beachgoers Isn’t Helping

People complain that going to the shore is a careless act during a pandemic, but the science so far suggests otherwise.
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The beach shaming is especially terrible because, so many months in, we now know that the virus spreads most readily indoors, especially in unventilated, crowded spaces, and even more so in such spaces where people are talking or singing without masks. Outdoor transmission isn't impossible, of course, but being outdoors is protective for scientifically well-understood reasons: Open air dilutes the concentration of virus in the air one breathes, sunlight can help kill viruses, and people have more room to stay apart in the great outdoors than within walled spaces.

In other words, one can hardly imagine a comparatively safer environment than a sunny, windy ocean beach. It’s not that there is any activity with absolutely zero risk, but the beach may well be as good as it gets—if people stay socially distant, which is much easier to do on a big beach.

And yet many news organizations have seized upon beaches, and scenes of beachgoers, as a sign of why things are so bad in the United States.   
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Blick said:
I wonder how much it just burns out in these hotspots.  I guess we're about to see if cases start spiking in NJ, NY, and WA.
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Cases are creeping up in NJ and the transmission rate has been slowly going up as well. It was under 1 for quite some time but has creeped up into the neighborhood of 1.4 now. Governor Murphy has just pulled back and gone back to more stringent indoor gathering numbers. Went from 50% capacity or 100 people to a hard cap of 25 people.

We’re also up to 34 states plus DC that anyone traveling from has to quarantine for 14 days once arriving in NJ. It’s getting crazy.

I would not be surprised at all if it’s announced within the next few days that no schools in NJ will be allowed to meet in person this fall.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Cases are creeping up in NJ and the transmission rate has been slowly going up as well. It was under 1 for quite some time but has creeped up into the neighborhood of 1.4 now. Governor Murphy has just pulled back and gone back to more stringent indoor gathering numbers. Went from 50% capacity or 100 people to a hard cap of 25 people.

We’re also up to 34 states plus DC that anyone traveling from has to quarantine for 14 days once arriving in NJ. It’s getting crazy.

I would not be surprised at all if it’s announced within the next few days that no schools in NJ will be allowed to meet in person this fall.
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So far youth sports haven't appeared to contribute but who really knows anymore.

I say this as someone deeply involved

 
Traveled from MA to MD w/ my son over the weekend for a lax tourney. Drove down, stayed with my sister, and went nowhere but to and from her house to the fields. There was a "one spectator per player" rule in effect, which it seems most complied with. And college coaches are not allowed to attend per NCAA. So I would say crowd was around 60% of what is typical. I kept my distance but there were clusters of people together w/out masks...all outside though, is the heat with a stiff breeze, so who knows. Seemed safe. As required by state regs, now that we are back, we are both getting rapid Covid tests this afternoon. Otherwise we'd have to quarantine for 14 days.

 
parasaurolophus said:
The beach shaming is especially terrible because, so many months in, we now know that the virus spreads most readily indoors, especially in unventilated, crowded spaces, and even more so in such spaces where people are talking or singing without masks. Outdoor transmission isn't impossible, of course, but being outdoors is protective for scientifically well-understood reasons: Open air dilutes the concentration of virus in the air one breathes, sunlight can help kill viruses, and people have more room to stay apart in the great outdoors than within walled spaces.

In other words, one can hardly imagine a comparatively safer environment than a sunny, windy ocean beach. It’s not that there is any activity with absolutely zero risk, but the beach may well be as good as it gets—if people stay socially distant, which is much easier to do on a big beach.

And yet many news organizations have seized upon beaches, and scenes of beachgoers, as a sign of why things are so bad in the United States.   
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Pretty happy to read this after spending last week "down the shore". There were people as far as the eye could see, but they generally give you 15-20ft when setting up their space. Impossible to walk down the beach without coming within 6ft of people though. Only semi-crowded place I went inside was a Wawa. Everyone was masked-up, but felt less safe than the beach, tbh.

 
E-Z Glider said:
Pretty happy to read this after spending last week "down the shore". There were people as far as the eye could see, but they generally give you 15-20ft when setting up their space. Impossible to walk down the beach without coming within 6ft of people though. Only semi-crowded place I went inside was a Wawa. Everyone was masked-up, but felt less safe than the beach, tbh.
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I have a week coming up, don't care about bars or eating out tbh.  Just a place to go veh for a week

 
bradyfan said:
History: Consequences of the Black Death

Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350 with an estimated one-third of the continent's population ultimately succumbing to the disease...

From the perspective of many of the survivors, the effect of the plague may have been ultimately favorable, as the massive reduction of the workforce meant their labor was suddenly in higher demand... For many Europeans, the 15th century was a golden age of prosperity and new opportunities....
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It started in China just like this one. 

Anyway, main reason for revisiting this is what I saw last night. Original Star Trek episode: Requiem for Methuselah. The black death pandemic was mentioned among other things a character lived through in his centuries on earth

 
shadyridr said:
My wife was tested today. Her asthma has been bothering her since yesterday and her sinuses have been hurting. She went to urgent care. The doc said "could be asthma, could be covid". She had her O2 measured (perfect), an XRay done (perfect) and got the test. Results in 5 days lol. She asked the doc "Isnt that ridiculous?" He said yes. He just said to avoid vulnerable people until she gets the results. He gave her a prescription for prednisone.
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I’m on Day 17 - no test results 

 
parasaurolophus said:
@trishgreenhalgh

I will be interested to see when this is published. I am sure this is hyperbole as she can be prone to that in some tweets, but will still be curious to read. 

She is a professor of primary care at oxford and has been a good follow for covid info. 
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I think cubic feet will end up being a bigger factor when looking at indoor risk. Which sadly puts the risk much higher at small mom and pops compared to big box stores.

 
Zigg said:
Are there any second world countries, or just first and third?  I would think Ecuador is a second world country.

That is based on very little.
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It’s a term that goes back to the Cold War. First world: USA and allies. Second world: USSR and allies. Third world: Everywhere else.

The second world ceased to exist when the USSR fell apart.

 
JMO JMO, feels like we are past the second? wave in Texas.  All the metrics are down bigly.  A lot less panic in the media.  TMC hospital is at Phase 1 now.  Hospitals bent, but did not break.  

100% of the focus is on schools now.  

Feel like the new normal will be sporadic outbreaks as things open up too soon.  Whether this involves schools or not is TBD.  Some start as early as next Monday.  GLLLL PEAS

 
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parasaurolophus said:
We Need to Talk About Ventilation. How is it that six months into a respiratory pandemic, we are still doing so little to mitigate airborne transmission?
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Great article. Fascinating how Japan reacted so well. 
I assume it would be a major challenge to change the ventilation in thousands of schools in such a small time frame. Maybe that's why it isn't brought up as much as it should be, it's just not feasible at this point despite the obvious safety risks. 

 
culdeus said:
JMO JMO, feels like we are past the second? wave in Texas.  All the metrics are down bigly.  A lot less panic in the media.  TMC hospital is at Phase 1 now.  Hospitals bent, but did not break.  

100% of the focus is on schools now.  

Feel like the new normal will be sporadic outbreaks as things open up too soon.  Whether this involves schools or not is TBD.  Some start as early as next Monday.  GLLLL PEAS
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That's great news, keep it up Texas. I agree the new normal will be strange for a while. In NY I've just accepted it, my wife and kids are still pretty skittish. 

 
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