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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

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Israel posted compelling info a month or two ago about infections going way up as time since vaccination passed.  This is apparently all about hospitalizations and severe disease, which appears less compelling.  I think there should still be an attempt to keep cases down if boosters will help with that, even if the impact on hospitalizations and severe disease is small.

Israeli data is all on Pfizer.  There is some evidence that the other vaccines may wane less or more slowly.  Time needs to pass for the data to be exact. 

 
worrierking said:
Israel posted compelling info a month or two ago about infections going way up as time since vaccination passed.  This is apparently all about hospitalizations and severe disease, which appears less compelling.  I think there should still be an attempt to keep cases down if boosters will help with that, even if the impact on hospitalizations and severe disease is small.

Israeli data is all on Pfizer.  There is some evidence that the other vaccines may wane less or more slowly.  Time needs to pass for the data to be exact. 
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That's the data that launched the debate among medical experts, even about half of Israel's. The prevalence of Delta coincided with the '6 month' timeframe (the waning immunity theory), and the experts are split on what caused the findings in the study. 

And re: Pfizer vs Moderna, Pfizer was given first, so it will be another few weeks before they can say with certainty if Moderna has truly outperformed, or if it just hadn't hit the waning period yet (if that ends up being the cause in the first place). 

And this is the entire point of the debate. Do we really want to set a policy based on a guess (which is what Israel basically did)? IDK the answer to that. 

 
I'm disappointed in the FDA panel. The decision if followed through on is going to cost many lives as the Delta surge increases and fills our hospitals. No bueno.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Summarizing some things heard during the live FDA stream: 

45% of deaths during the 4th wave in Israel were from fully vaccinated.  Severe cases and death from double-vaxxed people was a significant portion of the group of severe cases.  The booster essentially eliminated this risk and also significantly lowered the rate of infection.  Myocarditis was not a higher risk from the booster vs the second dose.  In fact, no such cases have been observed in males under-30 to date (the demographic asked about) -- however they have not had 30-days of follow-up yet -- however again Israel is actively seeking out this data by calling the hospitals for all such cases  weekly.
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They key question I would have about this is what vaccines did they get? The two mRNA vaccines predominantly used in this country have performed much different/better than the other vaccines available around the world. 

 
cap'n grunge said:
I'm disappointed in the FDA panel. The decision if followed through on is going to cost many lives as the Delta surge increases and fills our hospitals. No bueno.
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Hospitals have crested nationwide I'm pretty sure.

Naturally, there will be another surge of some other variant, but delta seems on the downward path.

 
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/no-3rd-shot-for-now-fda-cliff-notes (notes from today's meeting by Your Local Epidemiologist)

she summarizes the presentation and then adds Q&A and Discussion points from it:

Q&A

After presentations, voting members were able to ask the CDC, FDA, Pfizer, UK, and Israel representatives questions. This is where we got a lot of important answers. Here are a few:

  • Why is there so little reporting on cellular immune response instead of just neutralization antibodies? What evidence does Pfizer have? And what does cellular immune response look like for the average person? Pfizer responded by saying it had great data on memory B-cell and T-cell response after immunization. B/T-cell response is working great among the general population. B-/T-cell immunity isn’t good at protecting against infection and spread. We need neutralizing antibodies to do this.
  • Why not make the 3rd dose for the Delta variant specifically? Pfizer said Delta is not escaping immunity like Beta is/was. There is scientific evidence that protection is not just waning for Delta, it’s waning for other variants too. So, this isn’t mainly a Delta problem; it’s more of a timing problem.
  • Why don’t we know the specific antibody titer needed for protection? Israel is studying this right now but, but won’t have results for another month. Pfizer has looked at this and were unable to come up with antibody threshold. They said this is a much more complicated story than neutralizing antibodies.
Discussion

Then a discussion among only voting members ensued. Frustrations, really centered around data, were aired:

  • Members discussed Pfizer’s surprising answer that they, in fact, had B/T-cell data and didn’t share it in their presentation. If B/T-cells are mounted, then the general population would have protection for a long time. So, this gets even more confusing… Why is Israel’s vaccines not working against severe disease? We desperately need to see Pfizer’s data on B/T-cell protection.
  • Voting members voiced frustration about lack of safety data. Particularly, the risk-benefit ratio for myocarditis. The Pfizer clinical trial of 3rd shots was very small sample (~300 people). So no reassurance was provided for myocarditis. But, unfortunately, this is only really able to be answered post-licensure approval. Vaccine-induced myocarditis is so rare that we need millions of people vaccinated to see the “true” effect. An in-depth benefit-risk analysis could provide insight into whether the benefit of vaccinating younger with a 3rd dose is better than the risk of potential myocarditis from a 3rd dose. This was missing from the presentations today.
  • While Israel started to see increase in severe cases, we haven’t seen that in the United States. But then others questioned…do we want to wait to see if this happens in the United States?
  • A third dose may benefit transmission. But we haven’t seen this data. If we had this data, it would really change the game that we could (or could not) impact R(0). If we want to stop the pandemic, will vaccinating the vaccinated again really make a meaningful impact? To make the biggest impact we need to vaccinate the unvaccinated. Some members stated that this transmission could help with the current pediatric cases surge while we wait for the pediatric vaccine.
 
jobarules said:
So now you people know more than the FDA

FOLLOW THE SCIENCE 
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Our health authorities have botched our pandemic response pretty much literally every step of the way.  From masks, to testing, to vaccines, to boosters -- it's been one wrong decision after another.  I don't know why anybody expected them to get this one right.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Our health authorities have botched our pandemic response pretty much literally every step of the way.  From masks, to testing, to vaccines, to boosters -- it's been one wrong decision after another.  I don't know why anybody expected them to get this one right.
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Yet I've been told for the last 18 months to follow the science 

 
jobarules said:
Yet I've been told for the last 18 months to follow the science 
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Which is precisely what the aforementioned health authorities have not done (or have done way after the fact). Which is where following good sources of news and data comes in clutch, because those health authorities get called out for their missteps. Whereas other sources (looking at you, main stream media) just throw out clickbait bleeding edge headlines to garner views. Unfortunately the latter is what gets shared and discussed most of the time. 

 
Capella said:
Ok dude we get it. Don’t follow the science. Go lick some door knobs and take the horse medicine and move on already. Christ. 
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I followed the science.  Had Covid before vax were available.  Some how this is the only virus in history that you have and you are not protected.  

You go to the cdc website and is says getting COVID twice is rare.  Pretty plain page.

You go to the cdc website and ask if you can get covid after getting the vaccine and there is animation and all kinds of marketing but they never use the word rare.

Why? 

 
IC FBGCav said:
I followed the science.  Had Covid before vax were available.  Some how this is the only virus in history that you have and you are not protected.  

You go to the cdc website and is says getting COVID twice is rare.  Pretty plain page.

You go to the cdc website and ask if you can get covid after getting the vaccine and there is animation and all kinds of marketing but they never use the word rare.

Why? 
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Because it’s a novel virus and almost nobody knows anything since we’ve never seen it before and our scientists and intelligent people are trying to keep up with it as it keeps changing?

 
jobarules said:
I think the FDA is wrong. @icon said otherwise and he knows everything.
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Sorry been busy at the beach and I apparently missed an absolute SPECIMEN of a lunch pail day for ol'shady today. Lot of work put in. 

Not really sure where this comes from but it's nice to know I've got a free place to stay if I'm ever in the city. 😜

Regarding boosters (since I was summoned) I'm in favor of data/science driven approach... same as ever.

Optional boosters available now for high risk etc, everyone else brings a negative antibody test to get it.

The tests aren't perfect, some people will game the system... yada yada.... don't care. Give at risk folks a choice, give everyone else access based on need. 

If more data comes out that supports them.. open the firehoses. 

Easy easy 

 
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IC FBGCav said:
I followed the science.  Had Covid before vax were available.  Some how this is the only virus in history that you have and you are not protected.  

You go to the cdc website and is says getting COVID twice is rare.  Pretty plain page.

You go to the cdc website and ask if you can get covid after getting the vaccine and there is animation and all kinds of marketing but they never use the word rare.

Why? 
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You get a new variation of colds and flu yearly or monthly despite being from an original strain. 

 
All and all delta seems like no big deal.  We move on.  By we. I mean the non horse paste eaters. 

No real serious variant is behind this.  Shut it down we done 

 
Capella said:
Because it’s a novel virus and almost nobody knows anything since we’ve never seen it before and our scientists and intelligent people are trying to keep up with it as it keeps changing?
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It doesn't change, quit being ignorant.

I will explain this if necessary.

 
culdeus said:
All and all delta seems like no big deal.  We move on.  By we. I mean the non horse paste eaters. 

No real serious variant is behind this.  Shut it down we done 
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Again, one of the main issues and differences between being vaxxed in June and being vaxxed when Delta is 90%+ of the cases is the fact that a vaccinated person can spread it and is contagious potentially for 6 days. When you have kids out there under 12 who are still not eligible, that is still a reason for all to exercise caution. 
 

I don’t get why people won’t just wear a damn mask when inside in public or at large gatherings.  Literally one of the least intrusive things someone can do. 

 
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parasaurolophus said:
How does one do this?
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When I made an appointment for shot #3, their website showed me a list of general conditions that qualified a person for a third short, and I just had to click a little button saying that I had one of those conditions.  I didn't have say specifically what was wrong with me, just that I had looked at the list and saw something that applied to me.  Nobody tried to verify any of that.  This was at a regional grocery store chain, but I know a couple of other people IRL who also got boosters at other large pharmacies like CVS.  

Edit: Somebody posted something several weeks ago -- probably Biff -- about how the major pharmacies had told their people not to be the "vaccine police."  That definitely seems to be SOP at those places.  It's a little dumb that they real criterion for whether you get a booster is whether you're willing to fib on a semi-anonymous form, but here we are.

 
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hagmania said:
Hospitals have crested nationwide I'm pretty sure.

Naturally, there will be another surge of some other variant, but delta seems on the downward path.
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The COVID surges are regional and seasonal. Cases are falling in Florida, just like last summer with a few differences that have been documented by data and epi scientists, such as younger cases and a longer surge. But they're increasing in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin and several other northern states, just like in 2020. It's related to behavior, which is influenced by weather. Checkout Covidactnow.org for overlays of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by state, county, and metro area.  

This summer 2021 surge in Florida was worse than the 2020 surge in terms of deaths, and Florids has a higher vaccination rate than all of the northern states listed above. Most of the deaths and hospitalizations in Florida were among the unvaxxed, with obesity, heart disease, etc. At Miami's large public hospital, Jackson Health, over half of those who were vaxxed and in ICU were organ recipients (Jackson and associated UM do  the most transplants in the country).

 
SoBeDad said:
The COVID surges are regional and seasonal. Cases are falling in Florida, just like last summer with a few differences that have been documented by data and epi scientists, such as younger cases and a longer surge. But they're increasing in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin and several other northern states, just like in 2020. It's related to behavior, which is influenced by weather. Checkout Covidactnow.org for overlays of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by state, county, and metro area.  

This summer 2021 surge in Florida was worse than the 2020 surge in terms of deaths, and Florids has a higher vaccination rate than all of the northern states listed above. Most of the deaths and hospitalizations in Florida were among the unvaxxed, with obesity, heart disease, etc. At Miami's large public hospital, Jackson Health, over half of those who were vaxxed and in ICU were organ recipients (Jackson and associated UM do  the most transplants in the country).
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A fair point. Over half of the hospitals I'm referencing are in Florida, Texas and Tennessee, while the others are spread throughout the bottom half of the country.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Again, one of the main issues and differences between being vaxxed in June and being vaxxed when Delta is 90%+ of the cases is the fact that a vaccinated person can spread it and is contagious potentially for 6 days. When you have kids out there under 12 who are still not eligible, that is still a reason for all to exercise caution. 
 

I don’t get why people won’t just wear a damn mask when inside in public or at large gatherings.  Literally one of the least intrusive things someone can do. 
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Yep, and despite our falling overall numbers here in the US, as someone else mentioned above it's still regional in severity. Some are falling while others are rising.  I know that here in our state our numbers are finally falling after a brutal August, but they're just now back down to the end of July level, which already wasn't great, and as we have seen multiple times now, the switch can flip very quickly. Fall is arriving and people will be indoors more, so I am still concerned for the areas (like mine :bag:  ) with a poor vaccination rate. 

And not to :pokey:  GB culdeus, but I get a little nervous every time he declares the pandemic over. He's 0 for 3 so far. 

 
Noticed on the NYT's covid page that Mississippi has finally passed New Jersey in deaths per capita. A pretty sad figure given the advances made in therapeutics and vaccines well before the former's big spike. It does look like most of the country has peaked in this wave except for a fair bit of Appalachia. Hopefully they start to decline soon.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Yep, and despite our falling overall numbers here in the US, as someone else mentioned above it's still regional in severity. Some are falling while others are rising.  I know that here in our state our numbers are finally falling after a brutal August, but they're just now back down to the end of July level, which already wasn't great, and as we have seen multiple times now, the switch can flip very quickly. Fall is arriving and people will be indoors more, so I am still concerned for the areas (like mine :bag:  ) with a poor vaccination rate. 

And not to :pokey:  GB culdeus, but I get a little nervous every time he declares the pandemic over. He's 0 for 3 so far. 
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Yes culdeus has been very very wrong on that aspect so far lol. 

 
Desert_Power said:
Noticed on the NYT's covid page that Mississippi has finally passed New Jersey in deaths per capita. A pretty sad figure given the advances made in therapeutics and vaccines well before the former's big spike. It does look like most of the country has peaked in this wave except for a fair bit of Appalachia. Hopefully they start to decline soon.
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It's mind-boggling that the states who were destroyed in March-May of 2020 are now being passed.

 
culdeus said:
Its still over and been over since March.  If you live in a red area. Sorry.  Delta was a non event. 
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This is basically my experience too.  I'm currently living my life almost exactly the same as I did in 2018.  My biggest worry is that we'll re-implement a mask mandate in response to the most neurotic among us, but honestly that's pretty unlikely to happen given my state's political leanings and the bizarre-to-this-day fact that masks have become a red/blue thing.  I'm still paying attention to the pandemic because it's obviously still a huge news story, but it stopped affecting me at all last spring.

 
culdeus said:
Its still over and been over since March.  If you live in a red area. Sorry.  Delta was a non event. 
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Kind of been over for those of us in red areas too if our homes and those we have to be around are fully vaccinated.  I’d say it’s more that it’s “over” if you are vaccinated, no matter where you live.

 
AAABatteries said:
Kind of been over for those of us in red areas too if our homes and those we have to be around are fully vaccinated.  I’d say it’s more that it’s “over” if you are vaccinated, no matter where you live.
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More or less this,  It's hard to fathom those that still think this is really a big deal or has been since roughly end of March.  If it's a big deal it's either of your own paranoia or you are a horse.  Some people do enjoy watching the world burn though and it's been entertaining.  

 
culdeus said:
More or less this,  It's hard to fathom those that still think this is really a big deal or has been since roughly end of March.  If it's a big deal it's either of your own paranoia or you are a horse.  Some people do enjoy watching the world burn though and it's been entertaining.  
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You're right. All paranoia I guess. Fortunately none of us in here that live in the south needed an ICU bed (for ANY reason) in the last 3-4 weeks or we might have a different opinion. 

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
How long until herd immunity?  I heard Delta cases may finally be receding.
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I don't think we have any clue on herd immunity. Vaccination alone is not high enough yet, but we don't know (nor have we ever known) how many might have natural immunity. Delta cases are falling in some regions and rising in others. I'm not sure if we are following the same pattern (from region to region) as past waves. Would be interesting to see if that's the case.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This is basically my experience too.  I'm currently living my life almost exactly the same as I did in 2018.  My biggest worry is that we'll re-implement a mask mandate in response to the most neurotic among us, but honestly that's pretty unlikely to happen given my state's political leanings and the bizarre-to-this-day fact that masks have become a red/blue thing.  I'm still paying attention to the pandemic because it's obviously still a huge news story, but it stopped affecting me at all last spring.
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100%  Our state knee jerked and did a mask mandate. It's not real this time though, I've completely ignored it and havent been called out once. 

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
How long until herd immunity? 
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Probably never.  It's sounding more and more like maybe we possibly could have eradicated the alpha variant if we really tried, although it would have taken years to accomplish.  But people who understand the modeling better than I do make it sound as if delta is just too contagious for eradication to be a reasonable goal.  Maybe those folks are wrong and we'll all be celebrating the complete destruction of SARS-CoV-2 five years from now, but I seriously doubt it.  

In a world without vaccination, that would obviously kind of suck.  But if we can get everybody vaccinated, covid-19 becomes just another epsilon-level background risk that we all deal with routinely every time we step outside.  It's not a big deal.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This is basically my experience too.  I'm currently living my life almost exactly the same as I did in 2018.  My biggest worry is that we'll re-implement a mask mandate in response to the most neurotic among us, but honestly that's pretty unlikely to happen given my state's political leanings and the bizarre-to-this-day fact that masks have become a red/blue thing.  I'm still paying attention to the pandemic because it's obviously still a huge news story, but it stopped affecting me at all last spring.
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I'm ok with our school masking but the rest I don't really bother unless a store is requesting it. I still don't eat at a restaurant

 
Strangely, I read that post as "It's still over and has been over since March, if you live in a red area.  Sorry, delta was a non event."  (I live in a red area and the pandemic hasn't affected daily life around here since last spring, which is why I read it that way.)

Now I'm not sure if I was reading it correctly, or if I've placed myself in Works on Contingency? No. Money Down! territory here.

 
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