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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

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Two of my good friends just tested positive for COVID for the second time within the last week.  Both double vaxxed Pfizer this summer with no booster. 

Zach: 32 M / case #1 May 2020 / Pfizer Jab #2 September / Symptomatically Positive #2 this past Friday. 

Belal: 45 M / Case #1 Oct 2020 / Pfizer Jab #2 April / Symptomatically positive #2 Sunday PM 

edit to correct B's case and jab date 
Crazy. My father is double vaxxed with no booster and got covid in summer.  His wife is currently positive. So far so good but we will see if that changes in a few days. He keeps claiming he's "super immune".

 
humpback said:
For our resident medical experts, what do you think is causing spikes in hospitalizations in some areas? If omicron is supposed to be much less severe, is it possible the hospitalizations are still from the delta wave and the new cases are driven by omicron?

I'm in Maryland, where we have one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, yet hospitalizations have tripled over the last ~5 weeks to a level we haven't seen since January, pre-vaccines.
It’s omicron. A whole lot of omicron, with a smattering of residual delta. 

 
Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
My daughter organized her college ski trip .... 1100 went, 450 got Covid (all tested by the college every day). 100% vaxxed, 75%+ boosted. Similar stories. Very few who had covid before got it again.
To clarify, you probably don’t know any (or very few) people with SYMPTOMATIC covid who developed SYMPTOMATIC covid again. What you don’t know is how many people had asymptomatic covid/minimally symptomatic upper respiratory tract infection, but were never officially diagnosed with covid, who developed reinfection.

In contrast, everybody is well aware of their vaccination status when they develop symptomatic breakthrough infection. 

The only way to know definitively know the incidence of breakthrough infection vs. reinfection is serial testing of an entire population. 

 
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Landed in SFO last night with no major issues.  Was required to test to board however nobody checked.  Had to show proof of vaccination at check in.  Flight delayed about 30 because of the vax check, would have surely been longer if testing was verified, but we made up the time in the air.

Customs was the most lax I have experienced in 20+ years of traveling to and from EU.  No forms to fill out, just asked us what we brought in and how much cash, how long are you staying, etc.  Final exit was just a red light that went on randomly and they checked something.  No control of vax status for incoming travelers on the US end that I could see.  The girl that checked us in in MUC just looked at my phone and said ok.

 
The difference between EU and here were apparent right after exiting customs.  Any public indoor area, FFP2 masks are required in DE.  At SFO, while most were masked, many are waiting outside of customs maskless.  Of all the places to exercise a little bit more caution...

 
I read some headline that the booster only protects for 10 weeks. I'll try and find the article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/how-long-does-booster-protection-omicron-covid-last-study-2021-12%3famp
Thx for sharing, I didn’t see this.  It’s pretty consistent with what we are seeing and hearing from multiple countries and studies.  At this point we know that

1) vaccine efficacy for preventing symptomatic Covid decreases steadily over the span of 2-3 months

2) vaccine efficacy for preventing serious illness, hospitalization or death holds up well through 4 months and likely beyond

3) we will have boosters every 4-6 months for awhile

At least those are my takeaways so far.  And I’m totally fine with getting a booster every 4-6 months.

Thanks again for the link.  Merry Christmas!

 
Thx for sharing, I didn’t see this.  It’s pretty consistent with what we are seeing and hearing from multiple countries and studies.  At this point we know that

1) vaccine efficacy for preventing symptomatic Covid decreases steadily over the span of 2-3 months

2) vaccine efficacy for preventing serious illness, hospitalization or death holds up well through 4 months and likely beyond

3) we will have boosters every 4-6 months for awhile

At least those are my takeaways so far.  And I’m totally fine with getting a booster every 4-6 months.

Thanks again for the link.  Merry Christmas!
If it turns out booster only prevents symptomatic infection for 10 weeks but we still get protection against severe covid for longer I think I'll hold off on future boosters for now.

 
If you have immunocompromised people you may be around or unvaccinated kids, you should treat this outbreak like it’s March of 2020. Odds of you getting and spreading seems high with current levels. 

 
Yeah, one of my team members in NY just tested positive.  He and his wife were boosted 10 days ago.  Both positive now, along with their 3-year old.   Very mild symptoms.
So technically still inside the 14 day window....if that still is a thing. Wonder if people are getting the booster and thinking all good without the "wait time"

*Assuming that's still a thing

 
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If you have immunocompromised people you may be around or unvaccinated kids, you should treat this outbreak like it’s March of 2020. Odds of you getting and spreading seems high with current levels. 

 
Thx for sharing, I didn’t see this.  It’s pretty consistent with what we are seeing and hearing from multiple countries and studies.  At this point we know that

1) vaccine efficacy for preventing symptomatic Covid decreases steadily over the span of 2-3 months

2) vaccine efficacy for preventing serious illness, hospitalization or death holds up well through 4 months and likely beyond

3) we will have boosters every 4-6 months for awhile

At least those are my takeaways so far.  And I’m totally fine with getting a booster every 4-6 months.

Thanks again for the link.  Merry Christmas!
Yep, and per usual, the headline/way it's presented is a bit misleading- the effectiveness lessens, but it's still far more effective than no booster (especially Moderna).

Omicron will likely burn through much of the US during that 10 week window, so to quote the article: "In the meantime, the experts said the priority to tackle Omicron was still to vaccinate people who weren't vaccinated and get boosters into as many people as possible."

 
Thought I had symptoms last night and this morning.  Nope, just a small hangover and too much eggnog making me feel gross.  Had a negative rapid test this morning. 

Also, all our Christmas plans have been downsized to the immediate family.  The other families we often hang with don't want to risk an infection before they visit some elderly folks this coming week. 

 
Ignoring the whole rant above, I do agree with the "you must show vaccine proof to eat in this restaurant" mandate seems completely useless with Omicron.

 
Ignoring the whole rant above, I do agree with the "you must show vaccine proof to eat in this restaurant" mandate seems completely useless with Omicron.
I don't need 100% efficacy to think a policy is wise/advisable.

To me, absent the ability to digitally validate by vaccine shot / boost status, I'm okay with the vax or negative test mandate for dining / entertainment. 

Plus while I'm not in favor of mandates for employment, I have no issue with an "inconvenience tax"  on antivaxxers... limiting their ability to participate in certain social components of society. :thumbup:
 

 
The difference between EU and here were apparent right after exiting customs.  Any public indoor area, FFP2 masks are required in DE.  At SFO, while most were masked, many are waiting outside of customs maskless.  Of all the places to exercise a little bit more caution...
Europe sounds like Hawaii, except places where tourists predominate. Kinda surprised San Fran isn’t on board with masking.

 
I don't need 100% efficacy to think a policy is wise/advisable.

To me, absent the ability to digitally validate by vaccine shot / boost status, I'm okay with the vax or negative test mandate for dining / entertainment. 

Plus while I'm not in favor of mandates for employment, I have no issue with an "inconvenience tax"  on antivaxxers... limiting their ability to participate in certain social components of society. :thumbup:
 
Wouldn't a test negative to enter a restaurant policy make more sense than a vax proof policy during omicron? The former does not exist in NYC. The latter does.

 
Wouldn't a test negative to enter a restaurant policy make more sense than a vax proof policy during omicron? The former does not exist in NYC. The latter does.
Assuming infinite rapid testing capacity? Perhaps. Issues I see with this: 

1) Testing Capacity is already insufficient. Adding this requirement would dramatically increase stress on that system. 

2) The same people who ##### about vaccine requirements would also piss and moan about the testing requirement. Generally most of them are just miserable people looking for an excuse to whine. 
 

I do agree with evolving restrictions based on the situation. The problem is we have a lot of mouth-breathers who view this as a bad thing rather than a logical quantitative approach to risk reduction. 

 
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Assuming infinite rapid testing capacity? Perhaps. Issues I see with this: 

1) Testing Capacity is already insufficient. Adding this requirement would dramatically increase stress on that system. 

2) The same people who ##### about vaccine requirements would also piss and moan about the testing requirement. Generally most of them are just miserable people looking for an excuse to whine. 
1. Agree with this. They should've been mass producing the at home test kits using the Defense Production Act and had them widely available this way restaurant owners can have them available for all customers.

2. Agreed 100%. I don't care about those people. I'm just talking about what's safer AT THIS POINT.

IMO RIGHT NOW I'd rather be around a non-vaxxed person who has a recent negative test than a fully vaxxed and boosted person who has not been tested. The former is definitely safer during this Omicron wave.

 
1. Agree with this. They should've been mass producing the at home test kits using the Defense Production Act and had them widely available this way restaurant owners can have them available for all customers.

2. Agreed 100%. I don't care about those people. I'm just talking about what's safer AT THIS POINT.

IMO RIGHT NOW I'd rather be around a non-vaxxed person who has a recent negative test than a fully vaxxed and boosted person who has not been tested. The former is definitely safer during this Omicron wave.
I think I disagree with the bolded. A non-vaxxed has been proven to spread more/longer than a vaxxed. I think I'm better off taking chances with the vaxxed. 

Change my mind. What makes you say the last sentence?

 
IMO RIGHT NOW I'd rather be around a non-vaxxed person who has a recent negative test than a fully vaxxed and boosted person who has not been tested. The former is definitely safer during this Omicron wave.
I think I disagree with the bolded. A non-vaxxed has been proven to spread more/longer than a vaxxed. I think I'm better off taking chances with the vaxxed. 

Change my mind. What makes you say the last sentence?
I think his point is really that right now, he values a negative test more than vaccinated. At least if you have a negative test, you probably aren't spreading covid around. But since Omicron is hitting vaccinated and boosted people, a vaccinated person can still be spreading this. 

I think adding "nonvaccinated" to the person with the negative test was really just to emphasize how much more he values the negative test rather than the vaccination at this moment in time. 

 
I think I disagree with the bolded. A non-vaxxed has been proven to spread more/longer than a vaxxed. I think I'm better off taking chances with the vaxxed. 

Change my mind. What makes you say the last sentence?
Obviously it depends on how recent the test was but if they had a negative test they took 15 min ago how can they spread it?

 
I don't remember if this was ever proven conclusively, but I do recall some discussion a couple months back about the fact that all of the vaccines we have so far are delivered intramuscularly, which might mean they do a better job protecting the virus from colonizing the lungs, but not as good a job of protecting the nose and throat. According to this theory, that was why we were seeing a lot of breakthrough infections with cold symptoms among the vaccinated but not a lot of the serious lung issues. (It was also put forward as an argument for the development of intranasal spray boosters to supplement shots).

Anyone know what the current thinking is on that theory? @Terminalxylem @Doug B @Biff84
I’ve not seen that proven conclusively, but the mechanism is biologically plausible.

A couple minor points:

1. Colonize technically means to occupy a place in the body without causing disease.

2. IM vaccines can promote mucosal (lining of the airways, digestive tract, etc.) immunity. It just takes time to convert IgG/M antibodies in the blood (those induced by vaccines) to those in the mucosa (IgA). That won’t happen unless exposed to the virus (or an intranasal vaccine).

3. Virus can get to the lungs a couple ways: inhaled directly, traveling from the upper to lower airways, or through the bloodstream. Mucosal antibodies help with the former, while the circulating vaccine-induced ones prevent systemic spread.

 
Wouldn't a test negative to enter a restaurant policy make more sense than a vax proof policy during omicron? The former does not exist in NYC. The latter does.
Are you talking about testing at the restaurant? Aren't infected already going to be there for 15-30 minutes before being shown to be positive? If not at the restaurant, how do you differentiate results for a test taken today vs a test taken 1 month ago? 

 
Are you talking about testing at the restaurant? Aren't infected already going to be there for 15-30 minutes before being shown to be positive? If not at the restaurant, how do you differentiate results for a test taken today vs a test taken 1 month ago? 
Testing at the restaurant would be phenomenal. Next best thing would be one positive test 24 hours prior. I'm sure they can develop some app that takes your positive test result from an at home test as verifies if it was done 24 hours before. 

 
Here is another inconsistency that drives me nuts. The CDC just announced a 7 day quarantine period vs the 10 day period for healthcare workers. I understand WHY they did it but do healthcare workers recover from covid quicker than the rest of the population? Why not just change the quarantine period to 7 days for all?

 
Here is another inconsistency that drives me nuts. The CDC just announced a 7 day quarantine period vs the 10 day period for healthcare workers. I understand WHY they did it but do healthcare workers recover from covid quicker than the rest of the population? Why not just change the quarantine period to 7 days for all?
Because it’s out of necessity rather than data. There is still remains a risk in days 7-10. How much is uncertain but it’s likely decreased in that time period. For health care workers their benefit to the pandemic exceeds that risk. Not to mention they are more likely to be wearing high quality masks. From what I’ve heard, many other essential business are likely to adopt the policy.

The thing to remember is that the CDC guidelines are not meant to be perfect. It’s making broad recommendations to try and guide the best health outcome.

 
Here is another inconsistency that drives me nuts. The CDC just announced a 7 day quarantine period vs the 10 day period for healthcare workers. I understand WHY they did it but do healthcare workers recover from covid quicker than the rest of the population? Why not just change the quarantine period to 7 days for all?
Perhaps the benefit of getting healthcare workers back to work when there is a shortage outweighs the benefit of being extra careful with recovery time.

 
My Omnicron party is in full swing.  I started feeling uneasy half way in :unsure:

18 people.

6 kids under 12 not sure of their shots.

12 adults - 11 vaccinated. 6 boosted.

The 12 adult not boosted are 35 and younger..... I've been sitting out back most of the time

 
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