*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[Doug B]

Boosters approved for 50+ but is there even any data showing the benefit?

Reading between the lines below (no study linked or cited) ... it looks like the benefit was reckoned from the small end of the telescope. Not so much extra benefit from a fourth shot as making up for the waning benefits of the third shot:

But for those over 50, determined to be a vulnerable age group, officials at the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have decided the data on waning immunity justifies making another shot available four months after the first boost. And while anyone who meets that criteria can now get another booster, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said it was "especially important" for those 65 and older and those 50 and older with underlying medical conditions.

EDIT: Same ABC News link as above -- Dr. Fauci here is likely not citing his own personal research, so I'm curious from where he derived the bolded below. Not that he made it up out of thin air, but would still like to see the original research:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the White House, has said he expects additional boosters would "reconstitute" people back to the maximal level of antibodies, rather than boost people higher than their previous immune responses from any of the earlier shots.

But he said the body's B cell and T cell response, which have more impact on the duration of immunity, may incrementally be increased with each additional boost.

 

[belljr]

The cases, U.S. wide, have essentially plateaued. I would expect that this past week represents the last few days that the 7-day case average continues to decline. A 2.5 month run is nothing to sneeze at, though. Perhaps Omicron BA.2 has to finish making its way through the populace before case numbers can resume their downward slide.

The 7-day averages of deaths is still in freefall. Death averages will probably slow their descent at some point, but IMHO Omicron BA.2 is not going to be enough to cause a death spike.

Anecdotally -- without hard numbers to link -- COVID hospitalization information from different parts of the country look pretty darn good. Would love to see some easy-peasy figures assembled somewhere to wrap up all the hospitalization numbers with a bow ... but for now, encouraging anecdotes are welcome.

Yeah I think its the BA.2 plateau ..... our numbers are up a little but nothing too concerning.  We are up from a week ago but overall way down from the surge.   We are also down from the September numbers pre omnicron but not quite getting back down to last summer.

I think this will be similar to SA - in a little rise / steady cases before it dips again

 

[nirad3]

I'm not 50+ .... but I'm not going to get the booster unless there are some real significant spikes, which I just don't see happening in the summer.    

 

[jobarules]

I'm not 50+ .... but I'm not going to get the booster unless there are some real significant spikes, which I just don't see happening in the summer.    

Yeah Im not even thinking about getting another booster until flu season.

 

[Biff84]

Reading between the lines below (no study linked or cited) ... it looks like the benefit was reckoned from the small end of the telescope. Not so much extra benefit from a fourth shot as making up for the waning benefits of the third shot:

EDIT: Same ABC News link as above -- Dr. Fauci here is likely not citing his own personal research, so I'm curious from where he derived the bolded below. Not that he made it up out of thin air, but would still like to see the original research:

I’d just like a little more than ‘well it should help’. My job went from almost enjoyable to an unmanageable hell overnight. The first round of shots of course was worth it. Boosters were a little bit harder but the benefit was still clear. This one, I’m not sure it’s worth it especially if there’s a chance 2 months down the line that it really didn’t help and another booster would be recommended in August with the flu shot.

 

[belljr]

I am 50+ and 30 pounds over weight.    Unless something comes out that there is a drastic drop I'm waiting also.

I'm also just  4 months out 

 

[[icon]]

45, overweight, and 7 months out from full strength Moderna booster. 

No plans on another booster until/if we see another notable surge. 

Side note... REALLY need things to stay cool through May at least. We've got about $80k in corporate sponsor money pulled in for BBQfest this year and they're going to expect a full-capacity event. As of now, we can deliver that. 

Have a few grand tied up in airfare/lodging/trains for 4 Pearl jam shows in Canada /US this September as well. Really hoping that goes off without issue. 

 

[nirad3]

Went to a conference up in LA yesterday.  LA is way more mask-y (sorry, don't know what other word to use lol) and not only were people mainly masked up in the lobby of the hotel the conference was at, but driving around Koreatown yesterday it looked like at least 75-80% of the people just walking the streets had masks on!  

That said, once we got into the conference, I saw only ONE person (out of a good 125+) wearing a mask.  People were not really on top of each other per se, but it felt quite "normal", which was a nice thing.  

 

[belljr]

I took my daughter to the Harry Potter exhibit at the Franklin Institute Sunday.   There were a handful of masks. And i regretted not taking mine because if I didn't catch it sunday, I either had it or never will.

There were wall to wall people packed in tiny rooms walking through the exhibit.

Enough that my anxiety/claustrophobia kicked in a couple times.  I have a weird thing in big crowds where anxiety sets it.  Not if I'm sitting in a stadium but when you get packed in like say front of stage at a concert or something

 

[AAABatteries]

I’m not suggesting anybody should get the next approved booster, as for now I’m not either but I am curious the risk calculation folks are making.  Seems like many (not just folks in this thread but everywhere) are saying the case counts are low and that is a factor for them not getting it.  Obviously, to get really sick or die you have to catch it first but I would think the IFR would be as or more important since most people are returning to normal and you don’t know who has what and folks aren’t being as cautious.

Again, I’m not suggesting anyone is wrong - I’m doing the same but I do wonder how much added risk I have in either direction I have (getting it or not getting it).

 

[top dog]

Enough that my anxiety/claustrophobia kicked in a couple times.  I have a weird thing in big crowds where anxiety sets it.  Not if I'm sitting in a stadium but when you get packed in like say front of stage at a concert or something

I have a similar anxiety thing. I've decided over the years that it is chaotic crowds vs. organized crowds. For example, going to a football game and being with 80,000 people, even shoulder to shoulder going through a gate. No problem. Get me in an open music festival where there are no seats and I have to play plinko to get to a restroom and I start to loose my crap. It's weird. 

 

[PhillipPhoto]

So if most people aren't even planning on getting it, don't think it's an emergency, why are we ok with it being approved as an "emergency use authorization"?

 

[belljr]

I’m not suggesting anybody should get the next approved booster, as for now I’m not either but I am curious the risk calculation folks are making.  Seems like many (not just folks in this thread but everywhere) are saying the case counts are low and that is a factor for them not getting it.  Obviously, to get really sick or die you have to catch it first but I would think the IFR would be as or more important since most people are returning to normal and you don’t know who has what and folks aren’t being as cautious.

Again, I’m not suggesting anyone is wrong - I’m doing the same but I do wonder how much added risk I have in either direction I have (getting it or not getting it).

Unless I'm reading things wrong me dropping from 94 to 75 ish protection isn't a big reason

 

[jobarules]

I’m not suggesting anybody should get the next approved booster, as for now I’m not either but I am curious the risk calculation folks are making.  Seems like many (not just folks in this thread but everywhere) are saying the case counts are low and that is a factor for them not getting it.  Obviously, to get really sick or die you have to catch it first but I would think the IFR would be as or more important since most people are returning to normal and you don’t know who has what and folks aren’t being as cautious.

Again, I’m not suggesting anyone is wrong - I’m doing the same but I do wonder how much added risk I have in either direction I have (getting it or not getting it).

For me it has nothing to do with case counts.

 

[nirad3]

For me it has nothing to do with case counts.

I'm not completely disregarding them, but hospitalizations will be my #1 concern.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Until 4th boosters have been available long enough to measure the difference there's really not going to be a lot to go on.

The gap in protection from 2nd to 3rd shots looks like it's around 80% though (for severe/fatal outcomes -- the booster provides ~80% protection vs 2 shots).  So, just a guess, the third is a big deal, but the 4th probably won't be as large as that -- at least for the time being.

 

[Dragons]

Until 4th boosters have been available long enough to measure the difference there's really not going to be a lot to go on.

The gap in protection from 2nd to 3rd shots looks like it's around 80% though (for severe/fatal outcomes -- the booster provides ~80% protection vs 2 shots).  So, just a guess, the third is a big deal, but the 4th probably won't be as large as that -- at least for the time being.

And with cases dropping and summer (outdoor) weather coming up, it seems EV+ to wait. An omnicron specific booster may come available, or a new variant may pop up. Deferring a booster may offer better protection during a future wave.

I'm also not technically eligible (not quite 50).

ETA - age eligible did not stop me from getting the first booster right away in late summer/early fall.

 

[Biff84]

I’ve said it before, they really need to consider long term solutions for these boosters. Yearly in the fall (protection for holiday season) for the general public and a 6 month booster for the high risk if needed. When they make recommendations like this it further destroys the trust and more people will be turned off to future recommendations that will be needed.

If they lower the age, I probably will get it simply because I’m around it all the time and don’t think it will hurt. But I wouldn’t seek it out.

 

[IC FBGCav]

45, overweight, and 7 months out from full strength Moderna booster. 

No plans on another booster until/if we see another notable surge. 

Side note... REALLY need things to stay cool through May at least. We've got about $80k in corporate sponsor money pulled in for BBQfest this year and they're going to expect a full-capacity event. As of now, we can deliver that. 

Have a few grand tied up in airfare/lodging/trains for 4 Pearl jam shows in Canada /US this September as well. Really hoping that goes off without issue. 

Have you had covid?  I still think the best outcome comes from surviving it.  So it you are protected and survive.  That is the ultimate outcome.

Now if you had covid.  I think, no need for the shots but I am not a doctor.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I will say, in my head it is truly hard that someone hasn't got it yet unless you are immune or a recluse person.

I am sure there are millions in the US but doesn't compute.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I’ve said it before, they really need to consider long term solutions for these boosters. Yearly in the fall (protection for holiday season) for the general public and a 6 month booster for the high risk if needed. When they make recommendations like this it further destroys the trust and more people will be turned off to future recommendations that will be needed.

If they lower the age, I probably will get it simply because I’m around it all the time and don’t think it will hurt. But I wouldn’t seek it out.

We don't know the long term effects of having covid or the vaxx.  Time simply dictates that as a fact.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I’m not suggesting anybody should get the next approved booster, as for now I’m not either but I am curious the risk calculation folks are making.  Seems like many (not just folks in this thread but everywhere) are saying the case counts are low and that is a factor for them not getting it.  Obviously, to get really sick or die you have to catch it first but I would think the IFR would be as or more important since most people are returning to normal and you don’t know who has what and folks aren’t being as cautious.

Again, I’m not suggesting anyone is wrong - I’m doing the same but I do wonder how much added risk I have in either direction I have (getting it or not getting it).

I am the opposite. I wish the booster was for 40 and up so I could go get it for spring and ride out the summer until October’s covid/flu combo shot. 

 

[Biff84]

Have you had covid?  I still think the best outcome comes from surviving it.  So it you are protected and survive.  That is the ultimate outcome.

Now if you had covid.  I think, no need for the shots but I am not a doctor.

People are getting COVID for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th times now, I don’t think I would be that confident infection acquired immunity lasts long at all.

 

[IC FBGCav]

People are getting COVID for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th times now, I don’t think I would be that confident infection acquired immunity lasts long at all.

I don't know those people.  Love to see those stats.  I get what you are saying but science doesn't work that way.

 

[Biff84]

I don't know those people.  Love to see those stats.  I get what you are saying but science doesn't work that way.

What science are you talking about? Do you think getting COVID once will give you lifetime immunity?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Good discussion on 4th shot/2nd booster.

 

[culdeus]

I am the opposite. I wish the booster was for 40 and up so I could go get it for spring and ride out the summer until October’s covid/flu combo shot. 

Just say you haven't had one yet.  If absolutely parnaoid just make up a new card with your first two dose info leaving your booster out.  

 

[beer 30]

Just say you haven't had one yet.  If absolutely parnaoid just make up a new card with your first two dose info leaving your booster out.  

In SC all you gotta say is I'm immunocompromised and they will happily stick you, no questions asked 

 

[IC FBGCav]

What science are you talking about? Do you think getting COVID once will give you lifetime immunity?

Why wouldn't it?  It has been around since us and engineered better than we can at this point.  

I am not say you will never get infected again but you should, yes should, as I am not a scientist, be better protected.  The first time you get the virus should be the worse.  Any other exposure should not have an equal impact on your health as the first.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Why wouldn't it?  It has been around since us and engineered better than we can at this point.  

I am not say you will never get infected again but you should, yes should, as I am not a scientist, be better protected.  The first time you get the virus should be the worse.  Any other exposure should not have an equal impact on your health as the first.

This has been disproven time and time again. You've been given numerous links to the contrary. Natural immunity for COVID is hit and miss. Some seem to have it and some don't. I don't understand why you keep arguing this despite evidence to the contrary. And before you ask for links, they've already been provided, in the Covid vaccine thread IIRC. 

 

[jobarules]

Still fighting about masks in NYC. now for the 2-4 year olds because they remain unvaccinated. The NYC health commissioner had the nerve to go on TV and say that now 2-4 year olds are our most vulnerable population.

 

[PhillipPhoto]

This has been disproven time and time again. You've been given numerous links to the contrary. Natural immunity for COVID is hit and miss. Some seem to have it and some don't. I don't understand why you keep arguing this despite evidence to the contrary. And before you ask for links, they've already been provided, in the Covid vaccine thread IIRC. 

Similar to the vaccine then. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Similar to the vaccine then. 

 Not at all. But I guess that depends on what your perceived purpose of the vaccine is. 

 

[IC FBGCav]

This has been disproven time and time again. You've been given numerous links to the contrary. Natural immunity for COVID is hit and miss. Some seem to have it and some don't. I don't understand why you keep arguing this despite evidence to the contrary. And before you ask for links, they've already been provided, in the Covid vaccine thread IIRC. 

Show your evidence.  

 

[IC FBGCav]

This has been disproven time and time again. You've been given numerous links to the contrary. Natural immunity for COVID is hit and miss. Some seem to have it and some don't. I don't understand why you keep arguing this despite evidence to the contrary. And before you ask for links, they've already been provided, in the Covid vaccine thread IIRC. 

Evidence people are not around here much anymore because it was bs 2 years ago and the same now.

Unless Covid is magical.  How do you get worse symptoms encountering it a second time?  

 

[Terminalxylem]

For the record, our immune response to viruses varies tremendously. For some, you get sick once and don’t have to worry about being reinfected. Others you never clear completely. Those viruses can remain latent in your system indefinitely, possibly recurring or contributing to chronic sequelae like cirrhosis and cancer. Still others can cause more severe disease upon re-exposure, especially when infected with a different strain.

Respiratory viruses tend to fall mostly in the transient immunity category, where you are protected temporarily, often for several months-years, before reinfection occurs. Prior immunity may mitigate the severity of future infection, but that is far from guaranteed. 

Even though covid hasn’t been around forever, its viral ancestors have evolved plenty of tricks to evade our immune system. There’s no reason to believe any flavor of immunity - natural, vaccine-derived or hybrid will protect one indefinitely. Recurring boosters and reinfection will almost certainly be a part of our collective existence for the foreseeable future.

 

[DallasDMac]

I will say, in my head it is truly hard that someone hasn't got it yet unless you are immune or a recluse person.

I was WFH for years before COVID. I was at risk due to a pulmonary embolism right as COVID hit the US so hunkered down. We followed the guidance, masked up and stayed home, avoiding crowds. Got vaccinated and boostered as soon as we could. We still mask up at the grocery store and such even though we don't have too. We still rarely go to restaurants or anywhere that is indoors and crowded.

That being said, I had my booster in November and neither the wife nor I are in a big hurry for yet another shot. Like many, we are in sort of a "wait and see" mode. Of course that will change quickly most likely if the BA-2 variant makes it to San Antonio.

 

[belljr]

Yeah I can't think of any viruses where the second time was just as bad as the first time 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Evidence people are not around here much anymore because it was bs 2 years ago and the same now.

Unless Covid is magical.  How do you get worse symptoms encountering it a second time?  

I personally know several people that have gotten Covid twice and experienced more severe symptoms the second time.  Everybody’s body/immune system are different and the virus is constantly mutating.  You think the flu is guaranteed to be milder every time that you get it too?  

 

[worrierking]

I've been waiting for confirmation on this for a pretty long while.  We had discussions about this with people here and elsewhere who were really afraid of the vaccine due to the risk of myocarditis.  Early indications appeared to show that myocarditis was more common after COVID-19 infection than from the vaccines, but there was no solid confirmation.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/myocarditis-risk-higher-after-covid-infection-than-vaccination-cdc-finds.html

 

[lod001]

I've been waiting for confirmation on this for a pretty long while.  We had discussions about this with people here and elsewhere who were really afraid of the vaccine due to the risk of myocarditis.  Early indications appeared to show that myocarditis was more common after COVID-19 infection than from the vaccines, but there was no solid confirmation.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/myocarditis-risk-higher-after-covid-infection-than-vaccination-cdc-finds.html

"the study excluded booster doses" and of course smart people know that the more of that crap you pump into ya, the more likely you are to get adverse reactions.

Seeing how EVERYONE will get covid eventually, that is a total joke, and of course another lie by the CDC. Pretty funny how the myocarditis strikes the people who have gotten the jab, not us who have not.

The jab does NOTHING against the current strains. It was for the original (and didn't work then) and its long gone yet fools continue to pump that crap into themselves.

 

[lod001]

I've been waiting for confirmation on this for a pretty long while.  We had discussions about this with people here and elsewhere who were really afraid of the vaccine due to the risk of myocarditis.  Early indications appeared to show that myocarditis was more common after COVID-19 infection than from the vaccines, but there was no solid confirmation.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/myocarditis-risk-higher-after-covid-infection-than-vaccination-cdc-finds.html

You talking about this CDC? 

https://www.newstarget.com/2022-03-17-cdc-rochelle-walensky-trying-to-cover-lies.html

or this one: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/reported-pediatric-covid-19-deaths-plummet-24-after-cdc-fixes-coding-logic-error

Or maybe this one? They are ether corrupts liars or completely incompetent. take your pick but one thing is for sure, they are not to be believed. 

Rochelle Walensky, CDC director : “Our data from the C.D.C. today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don’t get sick,” she said. “And that it’s not just in the clinical trials, it’s also in real-world data.” MSNBC 1 April 2021.

https://twitter.com/net_nuance/status/1503130164036870149

They are now, 1 year later walking back that lie. It took them a year!!!!! incompetent or corrupt. Certainly not capable of dishing out recommendations.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I will say, in my head it is truly hard that someone hasn't got it yet unless you are immune or a recluse person.

I am sure there are millions in the US but doesn't compute.

Not only have not had covid, but I haven't even had so much as a cold since March 2020.  (I remember the date because I was mildly I'll when we shut down over spring break).  Haven't taken any meaningful precaution besides vaccination for about a year.

I assume that next cold is going to suck.

Edit: In fact, I wonder for real if mRNA vaccines don't somehow have some kind of weird cross-efficacy for cold viruses.  Probably I've just been lucky, but like most people I usually get 2-3 colds per year, so this is a nice little run for me.

 

[djmich]

I will say, in my head it is truly hard that someone hasn't got it yet unless you are immune or a recluse person.

I am sure there are millions in the US but doesn't compute.

I’ve been out and about for the last 18 mos, had a three weeks in a row recently of travel with high density conferences.  Finally got it the last week.  I couldn’t understand how I hadn’t had it either, but most people travel less than I do so could see why a lot haven’t had it.

 

[lod001]

I've been waiting for confirmation on this for a pretty long while.  We had discussions about this with people here and elsewhere who were really afraid of the vaccine due to the risk of myocarditis.  Early indications appeared to show that myocarditis was more common after COVID-19 infection than from the vaccines, but there was no solid confirmation.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/myocarditis-risk-higher-after-covid-infection-than-vaccination-cdc-finds.html

Or you can read the real truth. Debunking the above BS.

https://twitter.com/Parsifaler/status/1510245270478536710

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Analysis of EHR data from 40 U.S. health care systems found that the incidences of cardiac complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection or mRNA COVID-19 vaccination were low overall but were higher after infection than after vaccination for both males and females in all age groups. Two studies from Israel (2) and the United Kingdom (3) have found similar higher risk for myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with that after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

Myocarditis or pericarditis incidence after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in the current study (0–35.9 per 100,000 for males and 0–10.9 for females across age groups and vaccine cohorts) was similar to estimates found in a study from eight U.S. health systems in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (10). Previous CDC estimates found the highest risk for post-vaccination myocarditis among males aged 16–17 years (10.6 per 100,000) during a 7-day risk window after receipt of a second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose (5). Estimates from the current study (22.0 per 100,000 males aged 12–17 years) are higher, likely because outcomes were captured using ICD-10-CM codes alone rather than through passive reporting with subsequent verification through medical record review. Even among males aged 12–17 years, the group with the highest incidence of cardiac complications after receipt of a second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose, the risk was 1.8–5.6 times as high after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after vaccination.

 

[rockaction]

Why do people keep coming in the thread with contrary positions that other people have already debunked?

Haven't you all had enough of the contrary? What, did you get drunk and forget you've had this same conversation in different threads about ten times? 

Move on, you're ####### up a good thread. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Why do people keep coming in the thread with contrary positions that other people have already debunked?

Haven't you all had enough of the contrary? What, did you get drunk and forget you've had this same conversation in different threads about ten times? 

Move on, you're ####### up a good thread. 

Some of them are definitely under the influence. Others don’t even want to consider info that conflicts with their “sources” or baseline assumptions.

While it’s sometimes helpful to review the data/arguments, a lot of the blame is on people responding. I’m guilty of that, too. But I’m trying to be better, by not quoting nimrods (you made the cut, congrats!) while attempting to clarify some of the finer points.

 

[The Z Machine]

Why do people keep coming in the thread with contrary positions that other people have already debunked?

Haven't you all had enough of the contrary? What, did you get drunk and forget you've had this same conversation in different threads about ten times? 

Move on, you're ####### up a good thread. 

Why do you want an echo chamber?  Is there no room for discourse?

 

[stbugs]

Why do you want an echo chamber?  Is there no room for discourse?

Discourse? I hope you aren’t being serious. The two idiots in here have been 1) asking for the same evidence they’ve been given a hundred times and 2) just a complete loon who gets his talking points from FB an Twitter conspiracy nuts.