This wave will be very hard to track because testing and reporting systems have really broken down. Some states have even significantly changed how their hospitalizations are reported. Wastewater seems to be the last untainted metric out there and it’s showing significant increases in most areas. But I’m not seeing the significant retail changes I normal see in the other waves yet - high demand for cough and cold meds, desperate needs for testing, etc.
I’d say that celebrities and pro athletes are leading indicators of an upcoming wave. People with means or jobs that require frequent testing are more likely to identify cases. They bring attention back to the virus and then people are more likely to get tested if they have symptoms.
One indicator I’d watch is school attendance. Not reported cases but how empty the classes look. That’s what will show when community spread is significant.
Yesterday I did a booster shot clinic at the retirement community near me. The conversations often steer towards if they’ve had COVID and when which also happens in the pharmacy. I’m usually pretty open with people that my family likely all get it in February with Omicron. Many people usually respond with ‘us too’ around the same time frame. But yesterday it hit me that most of the retirees say that they got it around the holidays before Omicron. Obviously just an anecdotal observation but I think kids are responsible for a significant amount of the transmission, especially with Omicron. It’s not a huge leap since it’s always been that way with the flu and common cold too.
I’d say that celebrities and pro athletes are leading indicators of an upcoming wave. People with means or jobs that require frequent testing are more likely to identify cases. They bring attention back to the virus and then people are more likely to get tested if they have symptoms.
One indicator I’d watch is school attendance. Not reported cases but how empty the classes look. That’s what will show when community spread is significant.
Yesterday I did a booster shot clinic at the retirement community near me. The conversations often steer towards if they’ve had COVID and when which also happens in the pharmacy. I’m usually pretty open with people that my family likely all get it in February with Omicron. Many people usually respond with ‘us too’ around the same time frame. But yesterday it hit me that most of the retirees say that they got it around the holidays before Omicron. Obviously just an anecdotal observation but I think kids are responsible for a significant amount of the transmission, especially with Omicron. It’s not a huge leap since it’s always been that way with the flu and common cold too.
