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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

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This is a good study, but along with most that I see these days does not include data from the Omicron wave.  I understand this one was measuring Long COVID, so it couldn't be completely current, but I keep seeing information from various studies and various reports that does not include Omicron.  Omicron changed things.  

We still don't have Omicron-specific info on things like:

  • Does Omicron change the fact that outdoors is safer than indoors, and if so, by how much?
  • Does Omicron's highly contagious nature change the amount of time in an exposure needed to infect individuals?
  • Is it really less severe disease than earlier variants or not? It seems to be.
  • Is it actually less likely than earlier variants to infect the lungs? This also seems to be true, but how much?
  • Are masks less effective with Omicron?  N95s? 
There are dozens of questions like this that I would like to see answers to.  Anyone else frustrated by this?  Most studies just say COVID-19 does X.  Can we please get separation of data for Omicron?
Unfortunately this is how it's going to continue to go. Studies take a lot of time, and this virus changes quickly- by the time the study is done, we've very likely moved on to multiple variants from the one just studied. The current variants may behave similarly in some ways and differently in others, but we won't really know until long after it's burned through in most cases. It's one of the many reasons why we're still struggling to combat this, the virus is always a step or two ahead of us. It's also difficult to separate out variants in studies when multiple are circulating at the same time.

I also think part of it is that people are much more hesitant to give their opinions/recommendations now without a lot of concrete evidence in fear of the backlash if they turn out to be "wrong" (or things change). It's just a difficult situation all around.

 
I'm close to "recovered" at this point.  One thing I don't recall people talking about that happened to me was severe lack of appetite and the resulting weigh loss.  I loss about 7 pounds in 6 days.  Just wasn't hungry and just pounded water and Powerade.
I’m probably at 75%. I haven’t experienced this, but Mrs. O has. She’s probably at 50%  

 
What's your friend's clinical / epidemiological background? 
Zero (wait, his wife is a radiologist, so maybe 0.001?)

I didn't mean to suggest his view should guide anyone else's (related: please don't take medical advice from the anonymous friend of a psuedonymous Internet poster). I was just sharing his perspective.

My own view is that I decided sometime in late 2020, and especially once vaccines were available, that I wasn't going to spend a lot of time worrying about mask mandates and others' masking behavior in general. It's just not clear how much of an impact it has, in either direction

 
Anyone else a fan of Michael Lewis? In his latest "Against the Rules" podcast, he really goes after the Great Barrington crowd, in particular Stanford Prof. John Ionnidis, who predicted at the outset of the pandemic that there would be no more than 10K Covid deaths. The overall theme of the episode is less Covid policies in particular and more how otherwise smart people can misuse data (the podcast is about the role of experts in our society).

 
We still don't have Omicron-specific info on things like:

  • Does Omicron change the fact that outdoors is safer than indoors, and if so, by how much?
  • Does Omicron's highly contagious nature change the amount of time in an exposure needed to infect individuals?
  • Is it really less severe disease than earlier variants or not? It seems to be.
  • Is it actually less likely than earlier variants to infect the lungs? This also seems to be true, but how much?
  • Are masks less effective with Omicron?  N95s? 
I apologize in advance for not digging up links, but I'll share what impressions I have of these points. I guess it's what I think I know more than rock-hard fact.

Does Omicron change the fact that outdoors is safer than indoors? Possibly. This is essentially a bunch of anecdotes from one large event ... but the recent New Orleans Jazz Fest (last weekend of April, first weekend of May) -- held outdoors but with dense concert crowds -- has been considered a spreader event. Not sure about "super-spreader", but definitely a local source of an uptick in cases.

Does Omicron's highly contagious nature change the amount of time in an exposure needed to infect individuals? AFAIK, this is locked down. Omicron can infect someone much more quickly than previous variants.

Is it really less severe disease than earlier variants or not? Is it actually less likely than earlier variants to infect the lungs? These two kind of work together. Omicron had been said a few months back to not infect the lungs as much as prior variants. I haven't seen recent follow-ups, though.

Are masks less effective with Omicron?  N95s? Unfortunately, the usual 2020-21 loose-ish cloth/surgical masks are less effective against Omicron than against prior variants because Omicron can infect a person with a much smaller viral load. N95s are the minimum standard for protection against Omicron.

 
Just tested positive after a short golf/casino trip. I guess I couldn’t dodge it forever. 44 and no underlying conditions still means  just isolate and rest I suppose. 

 
I’m probably at 75%. I haven’t experienced this, but Mrs. O has. She’s probably at 50%  
@Osaurus , what do these percentages represent? A general feeling of "I'm 75% back to normal overall" or something else?

To me, feeling 50% -- even as a vague general measure of well-being -- would mean I was in bad shape. Is Ms. O able to do her day-to-day stuff at the moment, or is she decidedly infirm and recuperating?

How long has it been since you guys tested positive?

 
@Osaurus , what do these percentages represent? A general feeling of "I'm 75% back to normal overall" or something else?

To me, feeling 50% -- even as a vague general measure of well-being -- would mean I was in bad shape. Is Ms. O able to do her day-to-day stuff at the moment, or is she decidedly infirm and recuperating?

How long has it been since you guys tested positive?
Back to normal overall. I tested positive on Monday, but felt symptoms on Sunday. I was on site with a client last Thursday and someone there in proximity to me also tested positive. I haven’t taken any time off whatsoever since I wfh mostly. Mrs. O tested positive Monday and hasn’t worked as she is achy and tired mostly from coughing off and on all night (although she is improving). She can work, but she had tons of sick time so no big deal. 

 
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Does Omicron change the fact that outdoors is safer than indoors? Possibly. This is essentially a bunch of anecdotes from one large event ... but the recent New Orleans Jazz Fest (last weekend of April, first weekend of May) -- held outdoors but with dense concert crowds -- has been considered a spreader event. Not sure about "super-spreader", but definitely a local source of an uptick in cases.
@worrierking, I completely forgot -- there was a special wastewater testing effort AT Jazz Fest this year (WDSU-TV video). "The testing is coming from the portlets from the event."  :X

Jazz Fest and French Quarter Fest are getting some blame for increasing cases in New Orleans

 
This is a good study, but along with most that I see these days does not include data from the Omicron wave.  I understand this one was measuring Long COVID, so it couldn't be completely current, but I keep seeing information from various studies and various reports that does not include Omicron.  Omicron changed things.  

We still don't have Omicron-specific info on things like:

  • Does Omicron change the fact that outdoors is safer than indoors, and if so, by how much?
  • Does Omicron's highly contagious nature change the amount of time in an exposure needed to infect individuals?
  • Is it really less severe disease than earlier variants or not? It seems to be.
  • Is it actually less likely than earlier variants to infect the lungs? This also seems to be true, but how much?
  • Are masks less effective with Omicron?  N95s? 
There are dozens of questions like this that I would like to see answers to.  Anyone else frustrated by this?  Most studies just say COVID-19 does X.  Can we please get separation of data for Omicron?


Well, I slept with my infected son last night, while I wore a KN95 and we have been wearing them indoors, but eating outside.  So I will have definitive answers to all of these questions in 3-5 days.

 
3 hours ago, Doug B said:
That article is somewhat equivocal -- this part is more hopeful:

It's a muddy picture.

...

Thinking about "long COVID" some:

All throughout adulthood, I have struggled to get over symptoms of any respiratory infection. People conceive of the ordinary common cold as "a few days and then you're over it". For me, though -- any time I caught a bug that made me cough, that coughing would linger for weeks. Post-nasal drip and coughing for a month or so was typical, even from something with otherwise mild symptoms. Admittedly -- never checked for allergies, but there was no seasonality and was always tied to an obvious respiratory infection.

So ... looking back on it, I guess I was suffering sometimes from "long rhinovirus infection", sometimes "long enterovirus infection", and other times "long coronavirus infection". Whatever was going around at the time.

After a COVID infection, if I kept coughing for 4-6 weeks after other symptoms subsided, that would be textbook "long COVID", right? And as annoying as coughing is, it's not necessarily life-impacting (I mean, it can be but IMHO that wouldn't be the default situation).

Anyway, this all a roundabout way of getting to the idea that "long COVID" right now is being treated as never-before-seen thing AND is serving as a catch-all for all kinds of lingering effects. And that "shapelessness" of "long COVID" in the public discussion gets in the way of understanding the risks.

I don't want to know merely a percentage of "people having long COVID symptoms for 30 days after infection". I want to know about degrees of severity. Level of infirmity. Life impacts. Length of symptoms.

And not at the anecdotal level (" ... I know someone with brain fog ..."). Heck, I think I have "brain fog" myself -- or I'm just old and tired. How could I tell?

Don't tell me "30% of COVID patients develop long COVID!" Tell me that "1 in 7 report difficulty performing their normal work tasks". "1 in 200 report being unable to drive a car". "1 in 15 experience disordered sleep."

Lay out those life impacts. When does long COVID matter to the sufferer, and how often?

I hate getting headaches as much as anyone ... but if the aftermath of COVID makes me have to pop Advil three times a week for a few months afterwards, I can't really say I have "long COVID", can I? I'd probably be readily lumped into the long COVID statistics, though, if I raised my hand and reported "lingering headaches".
Expand  
I said this awhile and got blasted for it.
The hand gesture makes all the difference.

 
OK doomsdayer :lol:  

But seriously, that is an awful headline. Terrible job, NY Post. I read the actual article they are referring to (link here) yesterday, and decided not to post it to add to my doomsday ranking, but if you read it, it directly says the viruses aren't changing, it's the human behavior making the same old viruses behave in new ways. 

 
OK doomsdayer :lol:  

But seriously, that is an awful headline. Terrible job, NY Post. I read the actual article they are referring to (link here) yesterday, and decided not to post it to add to my doomsday ranking, but if you read it, it directly says the viruses aren't changing, it's the human behavior making the same old viruses behave in new ways. 
Human behavior or lack of naturally acquired immunity ? I'll read the article you posted.

And I never counted you among the doomsdayers.

 
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Comparing the headlines they seem similar to me:

How COVID restrictions could lead to an uptick in unusual illnesses

vs

Viruses that were on hiatus during Covid are back — and behaving in unexpected ways

The articles say the same exact thing. Not sure what you are talking about.

These viruses are not different than they were before, but we are. For one thing, because of Covid restrictions, we have far less recently acquired immunity; as a group, more of us are vulnerable right now. And that increase in susceptibility, experts suggest, means we may experience some … wonkiness as we work toward a new post-pandemic equilibrium with the bugs that infect us.

 
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Just tested positive after a short golf/casino trip. I guess I couldn’t dodge it forever. 44 and no underlying conditions still means  just isolate and rest I suppose. 


First, hope you get through without too many bad symptoms.

But yeah, I'm shocked that I haven't got it yet.  Or maybe I did and just had absolutely no symptoms.  I travel for work at least once a month and have been in bars/restaurants quite a bit and N95 masks just don't fit my giant head/bearded face.

Anyways, I'm sure it'll catch up to me at some point.  I'm in below-average but fair shape so there's a chance I'd get some moderate symptoms.  But I've never had the flu (knock on wood), so maybe I have some sort of superhuman immunity.  :shrug:   

 
OK doomsdayer :lol:  

But seriously, that is an awful headline. Terrible job, NY Post. I read the actual article they are referring to (link here) yesterday, and decided not to post it to add to my doomsday ranking, but if you read it, it directly says the viruses aren't changing, it's the human behavior making the same old viruses behave in new ways. 
I mean, it is the NY Post. And to be fair, the headline includes the key word "could", and the article has a whole bunch of could's and may's. Of course some will take it and run with it like it's some concrete proof, but it's really just something to keep an eye on, which is what they say in the article as well. 

Anyway, it makes sense and has been discussed before, but not sure what we would change even if it does lead to more/worse cases of other illnesses. All it does is highlight how difficult it is to navigate this damn thing.

 
large scale Long Covid study released by CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7121e1.htm

I've only skimmed it thus far, but here's a descriptive summary tl;dr blurb I can't link to bc it was from an email:

the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report released a large study this week that shows Long COVID is more common than we may have thought. This is important because we’ve had a lot of anecdotal estimates of the prevalence of Long COVID or small studies with relatively few people. In this study, they looked at the electronic health records of people who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 or positive COVID-19 test result in an emergency room, inpatient or outpatient facility between March 2020 and November 2021 (so before Omicron), a total of 353,164 unique individuals. They paired each of these positive cases with a person who also visited for care during that time but did not have a COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test result (1,640,776 control patients). They followed each of these patients for a month to a year, on the lookout in their electronic health record for new medical conditions. For those 18-64, 38.2% COVID-19 survivors had a new condition compared to 14.4% of controls. For those 65+, 45.4% of COVID-19 survivors had a new condition compared to 18.5% of controls. The risk difference between those with COVID-19 versus those without is one in five COVID-19 survivors aged 18-64. For those 65+, one in four COVID-19 survivors developed a new condition. Some of the most commonly found conditions are shown below. (graphic showing: Neurologic and mental health conditions, kidney failure, musculoskeletal conditions, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory conditions, blood clots and vascular issues)

Pre-Omicron data only. That will be interesting to keep an eye on when they have more current data.

 
Probably unanswerable.

How long after a close contact until you "are in the clear" about developing symptoms/get covid.

I think it used to be 10 days?

So let's say Monday was close contact.  When is it "safe to assume" you didn't catch it?

 
Probably unanswerable.

How long after a close contact until you "are in the clear" about developing symptoms/get covid.

I think it used to be 10 days?

So let's say Monday was close contact.  When is it "safe to assume" you didn't catch it?
YMMV but probably 10 days. Most people are popping 3-5 days after contact. 

 
So my 7yr old still has a strong positive test. But his symptoms are basically gone and are certainly less. So school says send him in a mask tomorrow as his 5-day quarantine is over. Would you send him?

 
So my 7yr old still has a strong positive test. But his symptoms are basically gone and are certainly less. So school says send him in a mask tomorrow as his 5-day quarantine is over. Would you send him?
If symptoms were completely gone I probably would. But if any symptoms are still present, along with the strong positive test, I probably would not. 

 
Nationwide COVID ICU admissions, past six weeks:

1900  (2022 low, serves as baseline)    
1999    +99     (5.2%)
2128    +129   (6.5%)
2322    +194   (9.1%)
2697    +375   (16.1%)
2766    +69     (2.6%)

These numbers get adjusted later, too, though not as much as the case counts do. Hopefully, that sharp decrease in rate of rise holds firm.
Thanks for continuing to post all the data!

I wonder to myself how relevant a metric ICU admission is. We closed our dedicated COVID ward earlier this year, and moved back to our original home unit ICU. I can't remember how long it has been exactly, but it has been months, now.

Since then, every single patient we have had that is COVID+, has been an incidental case. Meaning, they came in for something else and... "oh, btw, they tested positive for COVID." None of them had the severity of respiratory problems that were associated with the original or Delta variants. Very mild symptoms.

It's purely anecdotal, but it has been the same in most of the hospitals in the Northern Cali region, from talking to other RNs and MDs I know.

 
At a concert that requires proof of vaccine and also masks.  Seems dumb but whatever, especially if the mask less singer can belt out germs all over the crowd 

 
Only because he has missed a lot of days and the school said to come back Friday if his symptoms were on downswing. 
He's in 1st/2nd grade? It's the end of the year? Unless they are going to hold him back, what is he missing during the last 1-2 weeks of school in that grade? 

Different story if he's in 10th grade and has finals coming up, for example. 

 
Was at my daughter's dance recital last Sat. Bunch of people in the room, almost no masks. Found out a couple of days ago a mother was sick but refused to get Covid tested because she didn't want to miss the recital if she was positive. Of course she passed it on to her family, myself and my wife (so far, probably more to come). Best part to me is she was sick, knew she may have Covid, and didn't even wear a mask at the recital. Selfish #####. 

 
So my 7yr old still has a strong positive test. But his symptoms are basically gone and are certainly less. So school says send him in a mask tomorrow as his 5-day quarantine is over. Would you send him?
Agree that in this case there's probably no particular reason to send him at this point. But more generally, is he testing positive on a rapid or PCR? If he's negative on a rapid and positive on a PCR, I wouldn't worry too much about keeping him quarantined, since he's probably not contagious.

 
Spiking in So Cal again. All metrics up. UCLA going back to mandatory masks indoors and suggested outdoors


I don't mean to laugh at anything COVID-related, but :lol:   

I'm in SoCal.  It's definitely "going around".  We've gotten probably 4-5 email notifications over the past 2 weeks from our kids' school saying there was a positive case in either my 5th or 3rd graders' class.  

 
Curious what people are doing these days when they have a close contact. I went into the office yesterday and had a 5-10m conversation with a colleague. Today he told me he tested positive. I took a rapid (negative) and then got a PCR (pending, will probably get it tomorrow morning). Later this afternoon I had been planning on going to an industry event; it's not absolutely required for me to go, but I'd like to. Should I, or should I just stay home?

On the one hand, it wasn't all that close of a contact, so odds are nothing comes of this. Still, it's one thing to decide on my own risk tolerance, it's another to impose it on others, ya know? It just feels ... rude. And it's not like I'm considering locking myself in the basement and quarantining from my family. The question is whether to attend a non-essential event.
Ended up going to the event and not masking (it was a happy hour kind of thing, so there was lots of drinking and socializing, which made it hard to mask but also made me very self conscious whenever I found myself doing the "lean in and talk louder over the music" thing). I rationalized that I didn't really have that much of an exposure. Hope I don't end up being That Guy who infected a bunch of others, especially since I've spent the past two years judging those types of people. But as of now I'm still asymptomatic. Will get another test tomorrow (Day 3 since exposure).

I have no idea if I did the right thing, either in terms of going, not masking, etc. I might make a different decision next time I'm faced with a decision like this. I guess we're all just trying to figure this stuff out as we go.

 
Was at my daughter's dance recital last Sat. Bunch of people in the room, almost no masks. Found out a couple of days ago a mother was sick but refused to get Covid tested because she didn't want to miss the recital if she was positive. Of course she passed it on to her family, myself and my wife (so far, probably more to come). Best part to me is she was sick, knew she may have Covid, and didn't even wear a mask at the recital. Selfish #####. 
How do you know with absolute certainty that you got it from her?

 
Was at my daughter's dance recital last Sat. Bunch of people in the room, almost no masks. Found out a couple of days ago a mother was sick but refused to get Covid tested because she didn't want to miss the recital if she was positive. Of course she passed it on to her family, myself and my wife (so far, probably more to come). Best part to me is she was sick, knew she may have Covid, and didn't even wear a mask at the recital. Selfish #####. 
How do you know with absolute certainty that you got it from her?
Not sure it ultimately matters. She is a selfish jerkface regardless

 
Was at my daughter's dance recital last Sat. Bunch of people in the room, almost no masks. Found out a couple of days ago a mother was sick but refused to get Covid tested because she didn't want to miss the recital if she was positive.
This is fairly common behavior around here. My symptomatic in-laws had suspected COVID the week before Mother's Day (my FIL likely caught it from his confirmed-positive-test boss). They still wanted everyone to come over for the holiday, but everyone told them "Catch y'all in two weeks".

 
Had someone decline a brunch invite, gathering of old friends. Specifically bc they’re worried about Covid. AFAIK they’re not high risk but it’s all good, should respect people who want to err on the side of caution.

Nobody (or very few) have been masking at church. I’m really only masking on mass transit. Triple vaxxed, mild case April 2020, borderline high risk (age 60.) I’m monitoring what’s happening here in NYC. Creeping up but nowhere near the spike we had the first 12 days of the year.

Yet.

 
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Was at my daughter's dance recital last Sat. Bunch of people in the room, almost no masks. Found out a couple of days ago a mother was sick but refused to get Covid tested because she didn't want to miss the recital if she was positive. Of course she passed it on to her family, myself and my wife (so far, probably more to come). Best part to me is she was sick, knew she may have Covid, and didn't even wear a mask at the recital. Selfish #####. 
If someone HAS to have complications and go into an ICU, it should be people like that woman. 
 

 
Had someone decline a brunch invite, gathering of old friends. Specifically bc they’re worried about Covid. AFAIK they’re not high risk but it’s all good, should respect people who want to err on the side of caution.

Nobody (or very few) have been masking at church. I’m really only masking on mass transit. Triple vaxxed, mild case April 2020, borderline high risk (age 60.) I’m monitoring what’s happening here in NYC. Creeping up but nowhere near the spike we had the first 12 days of the year.

Yet.
Depending on someone's booster / previous infection was, I'd not make too many assumptions on immunity vs Omicron. 
 

 
Depending on someone's booster / previous infection was, I'd not make too many assumptions on immunity vs Omicron. 
 
Why would you say that when I stated I’m monitoring? Acutely aware of the BA.2.12.1 sub-variant and where our local numbers are at, it’s highly transmissible. 

Lots of friends have had it and NBD. Concerned but not the panicked over here.

 
How do you know with absolute certainty that you got it from her?
Good point, we don't know 100%, but her husband was texting me last night apologizing for his wife's behavior, his daughter called mine apologizing for her mom. We only really talked to her and one other couple -- other couple hasn't tested yet but last night one of them started showing symptoms, they are testing today. So possible it wasn't her, but at this point it seems pretty darn likely. 

Normally I wouldn't care, most people will get it and I chose to go to the recital knowing there was a risk, but to have someone who knew they were sick, refuse to get tested or mask, then talk to us like 2 feet away like there was nothing wrong seems incredibly selfish. We had to cancel Lumineers tonight and my daughter's graduation party where we had people coming from several states. Bummer, but hopefully no one gets really sick from this, my wife has flu-like symptoms and is in bed.  

 
Yep and I was 100% right. I never said covid cases would completely disappear. We are now living with covid. Even careful people like you got it. Everyone will get it. Hospitalizations, deaths, all at low levels all with no masks or mitigation. It's amazing! What a crazy 2 years.

 
Good point, we don't know 100%, but her husband was texting me last night apologizing for his wife's behavior, his daughter called mine apologizing for her mom. We only really talked to her and one other couple -- other couple hasn't tested yet but last night one of them started showing symptoms, they are testing today. So possible it wasn't her, but at this point it seems pretty darn likely. 

Normally I wouldn't care, most people will get it and I chose to go to the recital knowing there was a risk, but to have someone who knew they were sick, refuse to get tested or mask, then talk to us like 2 feet away like there was nothing wrong seems incredibly selfish. We had to cancel Lumineers tonight and my daughter's graduation party where we had people coming from several states. Bummer, but hopefully no one gets really sick from this, my wife has flu-like symptoms and is in bed.  
I'd be pissed too. Covid or not, sick people need to stay home and if not she should've at least worn a mask, isolated in a corner, and not talk to anyone.

 
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