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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

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Just finished reading The Premonition by Michael Lewis.  Wow.  Our public health system is just massively screwed.   Not a lot of major surprises about the big things that were missed in early Covid days.  What was really surprising……is how spot on the insights from this thread were.  The collective knowledge and conclusions from this thread were right in line with the true heroes showcased in The Premonition.  How could our govt be so stupid?!?!??
That's on my summer reading list

 
Not sure on the horse pills but Paxlovid is an anti-viral and Dexmethazone is the popular covid steroid regimen if I recall 
lol - i meant "horse pills" as in size not wacky conspiracy pills

Probably should have clarified...... i assumed that was common slang for large pills

 
lol - i meant "horse pills" as in size not wacky conspiracy pills

Probably should have clarified...... i assumed that was common slang for large pills
Yah I figured, just was saying I don't know how large the two meds are so can't tell which they were taking 👍🏼

 
Not sure on the horse pills but Paxlovid is an anti-viral and Dexmethazone is the popular covid steroid regimen if I recall 
More importantly, who gets Paxlovid in the divorce? The right got HCQ, ivermectin and monoclonals, the left got vaccines and masks. So I feel like the left should get it to balance things out.

(Apologies for getting slightly political in my joke. I like to think of it more as meta-commentary)

 
Why Masks Work, but Mandates Haven’t

Covid cases and hospitalizations are rising again in the U.S., and deaths are starting to rise, too. In response, many people are understandably asking what the country can do to minimize the virus’s toll in the weeks ahead.

So far, a lot of discussion has focused on mask mandates. Schools in Philadelphia; Providence, R.I.; Berkeley, Calif.; and Brookline, Mass., have reimposed theirs, as have several colleges. Elsewhere, some people are frustrated that officials, like New York City’s mayor, Eric Adams, have not done so.

Critics have accused these leaders of a lack of political courage, saying that they are yielding to Covid fatigue rather than imposing necessary public health measures. But I think that the criticism misreads both the history of public health and the recent scientific evidence about mask mandates.

The evidence suggests that broad mask mandates have not done much to reduce Covid caseloads over the past two years. Today, mask rules may do even less than in the past, given the contagiousness of current versions of the virus. And successful public health campaigns rarely involve a divisive fight over a measure unlikely to make a big difference.

From the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a paradox involving masks. As Dr. Shira Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, puts it, “It is simultaneously true that masks work and mask mandates do not work.”

To start with the first half of the paradox: Masks reduce the spread of the Covid virus by preventing virus particles from traveling from one person’s nose or mouth into the air and infecting another person. Laboratory studies have repeatedly demonstrated the effect.

Given this, you would think that communities where mask-wearing has been more common would have had many fewer Covid infections. But that hasn’t been the case.

In U.S. cities where mask use has been more common, Covid has spread at a similar rate as in mask-resistant cities. Mask mandates in schools also seem to have done little to reduce the spread. Hong Kong, despite almost universal mask-wearing, recently endured one of the world’s worst Covid outbreaks.

Advocates of mandates sometimes argue that they do have a big effect even if it is not evident in populationwide data, because of how many other factors are at play. But this argument seems unpersuasive.

After all, the effect of vaccines on severe illness is blazingly obvious in the geographic data: Places with higher vaccination rates have suffered many fewer Covid deaths. The patterns are clear even though the world is a messy place, with many factors other than vaccines influencing Covid death rates.

Yet when you look at the data on mask-wearing — both before vaccines were available and after, as well as both in the U.S. and abroad — you struggle to see any patterns.

[...]

“Even though masks work, getting millions of people to wear them, and wear them consistently and properly, is a far greater challenge,” Steven Salzberg, a biostatistician at Johns Hopkins University, has written. Part of the problem, Salzberg explains, is that the most effective masks also tend to be less comfortable. They cover a larger part of a person’s face, fit more snugly and restrict the flow of more air particles.

During an acute crisis — such as the early months of Covid, when masks were one of the few available forms of protection — strict guidelines can nonetheless make sense. Public health officials can urge people to wear tightfitting, high-quality masks and almost never take them off in public. If the mandate has even a modest benefit, it can be worth it.

[...]

In the current stage of the pandemic, there are less divisive measures that are more effective than mask mandates. Booster shots are widely available. A drug that can further protect the immunocompromised, known as Evusheld, is increasingly available. So are post-infection treatments, like Paxlovid, that make Covid less severe.

[...]

Fortunately, the scientific evidence points to a reasonable compromise. Because masks work and mandates often don’t, people can make their own decisions. Anybody who wants to wear a snug, high-quality mask can do so and will be less likely to contract Covid.

If anything, that approach — one-way masking — is consistent with what hospitals have long done, as Doron, the Tufts epidemiologist, points out. Patients, including those sick with infectious diseases, typically have not worn masks, but doctors and nurses have. “One-way masking is how we have always used them,” she wrote.

 
(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs tend to get adjusted with some frequency after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited a few days to let the most recent Monday numbers settle in, though - as always - they will rise some more by next week's update.)

...

Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES
Thu 01/13/2022 - 824,126  <--2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,955
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,751
Mon 02/21/2022 - 94,394
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,148
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,095
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,923
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,923
Mon 03/28/2022 - 29,075
Sat   04/02/2022 - 28,042 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/04/2022 - 29,067
Mon 04/11/2022 - 34,184
Mon 04/18/2022 - 41,035
Mon 04/25/2022 - 52,659
Mon 05/02/2022 - 63,181
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,348
Mon 05/16/2022 - 99,979
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,079 (104,754 last week)
Mon 05/30/2022 - 100,159  <--provisional count

DEATHS
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,740  <--2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,184
Tue  02/22/2022 - 1,938
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,745
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,120
Tue  03/22/2022 - 805
Mon 03/28/2022 - 662
Mon 04/04/2022 - 593
Mon 04/11/2022 - 506
Mon 04/18/2022 - 385
Mon 04/25/2022 - 375
Mon 05/02/2022 - 355
Mon 05/09/2022 - 320
Mon 05/16/2022 - 300 (294 last week) <--provisional 2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 308 (269 last week)
Mon 05/30/2022 - 254  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 824,126 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 100,159 on 5/30/2022. After adjustments, the 7-day average of cases continued to rise through May 22-23. Since May 23, the curve shows a downturn -- but with (a) some states reporting only weekly plus (b) the effect of the holiday weekend, the curve will likely begin rising again. There were similar temporary valleys in the 7-day-case-count curve both last Labor Day and last Thanksgiving.

DEATHS: With recent adjustments, the 7-day average dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,740 on 1/29/2022 to 358 on Tue 4/19/2022. That number jogged up to 362 the following day, breaking the streak. The recent slow decline stopped the weekend of May 20-22, with deaths rising slightly up until Wednesday, May 25 (314). As with 7-day-cases, it will take another week of data to best reflect where 7-day-deaths are now.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 
Nationwide COVID ICU admissions, past seven weeks:

1900  (2022 low, serves as baseline)    
1999    +99    (5.2%)
2128    +129   (6.5%)
2323    +195   (9.2%)
2692    +369   (15.9%)
2871    +179   (6.6%)
2958    +87    (3.0%)

These numbers get adjusted later, too, though not as much as the case counts do. The decrease in rate of rise that became apparent last week continues to hold.

 
(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs tend to get adjusted with some frequency after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited a few days to let the most recent Monday numbers settle in, though - as always - they will rise some more by next week's update.)

...

Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES
Thu 01/13/2022 - 824,126  <--2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,955
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,751
Mon 02/21/2022 - 94,394
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,148
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,095
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,923
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,923
Mon 03/28/2022 - 29,075
Sat   04/02/2022 - 28,042 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/04/2022 - 29,067
Mon 04/11/2022 - 34,184
Mon 04/18/2022 - 41,035
Mon 04/25/2022 - 52,659
Mon 05/02/2022 - 63,181
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,348
Mon 05/16/2022 - 99,979
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,079 (104,754 last week)
Mon 05/30/2022 - 100,159  <--provisional count

DEATHS
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,740  <--2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,184
Tue  02/22/2022 - 1,938
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,745
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,120
Tue  03/22/2022 - 805
Mon 03/28/2022 - 662
Mon 04/04/2022 - 593
Mon 04/11/2022 - 506
Mon 04/18/2022 - 385
Mon 04/25/2022 - 375
Mon 05/02/2022 - 355
Mon 05/09/2022 - 320
Mon 05/16/2022 - 300 (294 last week) <--provisional 2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 308 (269 last week)
Mon 05/30/2022 - 254  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 824,126 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 100,159 on 5/30/2022. After adjustments, the 7-day average of cases continued to rise through May 22-23. Since May 23, the curve shows a downturn -- but with (a) some states reporting only weekly plus (b) the effect of the holiday weekend, the curve will likely begin rising again. There were similar temporary valleys in the 7-day-case-count curve both last Labor Day and last Thanksgiving.

DEATHS: With recent adjustments, the 7-day average dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,740 on 1/29/2022 to 358 on Tue 4/19/2022. That number jogged up to 362 the following day, breaking the streak. The recent slow decline stopped the weekend of May 20-22, with deaths rising slightly up until Wednesday, May 25 (314). As with 7-day-cases, it will take another week of data to best reflect where 7-day-deaths are now.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021


So when are we out of this surge?  July?

 
I have to say, if I somehow avoid COVID after being in this infected house, someone should do a study on Allegra as an anti-viral.  I have taken two 12-hour Allegra every day since April with the pollen so bad here this year.

 
We are officially on the downward trend again.... 7 day average for NJ has dropped the last 3 days.... Considerably the last day.

Yes I know "data mmv" -------   

 
I have to say, if I somehow avoid COVID after being in this infected house, someone should do a study on Allegra as an anti-viral.  I have taken two 12-hour Allegra every day since April with the pollen so bad here this year.
Are they 24 hour or 12 hour pills?  I take 2 24 hour pills daily for my allergies and have not contracted Covid yet.

 
I have to say, if I somehow avoid COVID after being in this infected house, someone should do a study on Allegra as an anti-viral.  I have taken two 12-hour Allegra every day since April with the pollen so bad here this year.
The article below came up on another board. It's specifically about food allergies, but hey -- who knows what may come to light in the future?

Food allergy is associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (National Institutes of Health, 6/1/2022)

When the HEROS study began, preliminary evidence from other research suggested that having an allergic disease might reduce a person’s susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The HEROS investigators found that having self-reported, physician-diagnosed food allergy cut the risk of infection in half, but asthma and the other allergic conditions monitored—eczema and allergic rhinitis—were not associated with reduced infection risk. However, the participants who reported having food allergy were allergic to three times as many allergens as the participants who did not report having food allergy.

...

Dr. Hartert and colleagues speculate that type 2 inflammation, a characteristic of allergic conditions, may reduce levels of a protein called the ACE2 receptor on the surface of airway cells. SARS-CoV-2 uses this receptor to enter cells, so its scarcity could limit the virus’s ability to infect them. Differences in risk behaviors among people with food allergy, such as eating out at restaurants less often, also could explain the lower infection risk for this group. However, through biweekly assessments, the study team found that households with food-allergic participants had only slightly lower levels of community exposure than other households.
You guys taking Allegra ... do you happen to have any food allergies, too? Even mild ones?

 
The article below came up on another board. It's specifically about food allergies, but hey -- who knows what may come to light in the future?

Food allergy is associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (National Institutes of Health, 6/1/2022)

You guys taking Allegra ... do you happen to have any food allergies, too? Even mild ones?
Perhaps but not sure.  Around 10 years ago I started having random swelling in my face ( nose, lips, cheek) that would happen once every other week and then increased to once or twice a week.  I went to an allergist and they did blood tests and could not pinpoint the culprit.  I was told to take 1 24 hour Allegra daily.  This helped reduce the swellings but they returned and I went back to different allergist and did more testing.  Same thing, nothing came back for food or pollen etc.  They told me to increase to 2 24 hour Alegra pills daily.  Still get swellings from time to time which is super annoying.

 
If that "Type 2 inflammation" speculation bears fruit ... it sure looks like regular ol' nasal/sinus allergy sufferers get an anti-COVID bump:

Type 2 inflammation has been implicated in several chronic diseases:

  • Asthma
  • Atopic dermatitis
  • Chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps
  • Eosinophilic esophagitis
 
Can't dig into it now, but anyone that wants to do a deep dive into the speculative "allergies correlate with COVID resistance" link, Google the terms "Type 2 inflammation, ACE2 receptor". The first page Google throws up is full of research into the connections.

Having a low number of ACE2 receptors in airway tissue is one of the main things that give pre-teen children a leg up over adults when it comes to COVID risk.

 
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The article below came up on another board. It's specifically about food allergies, but hey -- who knows what may come to light in the future?

Food allergy is associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (National Institutes of Health, 6/1/2022)

You guys taking Allegra ... do you happen to have any food allergies, too? Even mild ones?


I have mild allergic reactions to some nuts (pine nuts, walnuts, pecans) as well as some stone fruits at times (cherries, peaches).  The reaction is typically just an itchy tongue, and it is not every time I consume one of the above.

I have seasonal allergies that make my eyes itchy/feel like sandpaper and get red, sneeze, stuffy, etc.  Nothing that requires medication other than 12-hour Allegra.  Sometimes I get away with only taking one, but this season have had to do the typical twice per day.

 
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Having said that, I could still pop in the next few days.  My wife, however, even with the auto-immune stuff just tested negative on Day 5.  She has mild symptoms still (fatigue, slight cough, and her sense of smell is not always 100%), but is out and about the house doing typical chores etc.

 
We may be on the downside of the BA.2 surge, but BA.4 and 5 are increasing in the US. This will likely keep the spread rates high for a while since I think they can spread independently from BA.2. The latest YLE update goes over this. 

 
OH COME ON


I know.  Every time an expert or someone says this is the last surge and then it'll just be endemic, there's always an asterisk that says unless there's another variant that mutates, and every single time so far this has been the case.  I cant wait for BA.6 and BA.7 to mutate right as BA.4 and 5 wane.  

 
I know.  Every time an expert or someone says this is the last surge and then it'll just be endemic, there's always an asterisk that says unless there's another variant that mutates, and every single time so far this has been the case.  I cant wait for BA.6 and BA.7 to mutate right as BA.4 and 5 wane.  
I dont think its the mutations causing the waves. I think its the fact that Omicron (and all its sub-variants) have such short term immunity. So people that got sick in Dec/Jan are getting sick again 4 months later. That plus the summer doesnt tend to slow this thing down like the seasonal flu. So instead of a Covid season it seems like we are going to continually have surges every 4-6 months. This sounds bad but really isnt due to vaccines and natural immunity which both prevent serious illness. Most doctors saying they rarely see serious cases anymore.

 
"Endemic" doesn't mean "no more surges". In fact, surges up and drops down are pretty normal with endemic viruses.

 
Scoresman said:
I know.  Every time an expert or someone says this is the last surge and then it'll just be endemic, there's always an asterisk that says unless there's another variant that mutates, and every single time so far this has been the case.  I cant wait for BA.6 and BA.7 to mutate right as BA.4 and 5 wane.  
It already is endemic. 

 
I don't understand how we do not have a uniform reporting methodology across the county.  How is the CDC or even normal people, supposed to make any kind of informed decision?  The graphs look to be flattening or starting to trend downwards, but you have dates that have 0 cases reported in some states because there is no uniformity.  So you never have a true picture of what is going on.

Wife is Day 6 since testing positive.  She tested negative yesterday.  Still has some lingering symptoms.  I am still negative on Day 13 from the first case in the house.

 
Probably because they cannot get vaccinated yet and can be vectors for spread.
That's probably the on-paper reason. Political inertia is in play, as well.

The masks that toddlers can tolerate for extended periods ... I would seriously doubt they are well-fitted (K)N95s. Toddler masks are likely not doing a whole lot to prevent toddlers being vectors for spread.

...

Something of a side issue: At this point, communities can't just reflexively bring back spring 2020 protocols because "cases are rising". The decision-support parameters should be changed now -- what's going on in the local hospitals? ICUs? If cases are rising, how rapidly -- what is the pace? What deleterious follow-on effects -- if any -- of case rise are we seeing?

 
I don't understand how we do not have a uniform reporting methodology across the county.  How is the CDC or even normal people, supposed to make any kind of informed decision?
They look at the data as a whole, realise it's just another respiratory virus at this stage (arguable it was never anything other than this at any point) and get on with their lives?

 
Our family as well. And after reading that, our household's COVID experience makes a lot more sense:

- All four family members had symptoms in the days immediately after New Years Day 2022.
- Symptoms varied in severity by age and comorbidity status. Two teens skated through while my wife and I had sub-clinical PITA symptoms. Only my wife had taste/smell issues.
- Only one person tested positive on a PCR -- my son, who was about six months removed from his second shot. He was never boosted, while his older sister, my wife, and I were all just a few weeks past our third shots.
- My wife and I also took PCRs and tested negative. My daughter's symptoms were mild enough for her to not bother with a PCR -- she just isolated for 10 days.

 
Traveled for work a couple weeks ago, saw about 5-10% mask usage on planes (Orange County ==> Denver ==> Pierre, SD).

Traveled for work late last week, and saw a noticeable rise in usage (maybe 50-60%?), going from OC ==> Denver ==> Fargo, ND.

Just thought I'd share my observations.


Another anecdotal post, but traveled (again) for work this week, and mask usage has dipped back down since my last trip.  I'd say it was 10-15% usage based on my observations going from OC==>Dallas==>Charlotte and Charlotte==>Chicago==>Orange County.

I get seasonal allergies and my left nostril was drippy-drippy and my throat was scratchy on my flight from Chicago home last night.  Had to cough to get rid of the itchy throat a couple times and felt a weird sense that folks around me were like "oh great this guy has COVID!".   I guess that's just the world we live in now.  Both symptoms have stopped as of today, FWIW.

Anyways, came home and found an email from our Head of HR telling me the guy who's cube is next to mine at the office tested positive.  So now I have to test on Sunday night before coming into the office on Monday, and have to wear a stinkin' mask whenever  I'm around anyone at the office all next week.  :shrug:

 
Son woke up this morning coughing. Gave him a rapid and it was negative, but he had a fever of 100 so we kept him home. Took him for a PCR that also came back negative. Meanwhile, his fever kept rising throughout the day to 101, then 102. Doctor said it's probably the flu.

Which got me thinking: We have lots of discussion about how it's "just the flu" or "worse than the flu", but what does that actually mean in practice? We certainly don't feel any need to get him tested for influenza. We're giving him over-the-counter meds like Tylenol and anti-histamines, but doc said Tamiflu probably doesn't make sense as long as his symptoms are mild. I would imagine if he wakes up tomorrow and his temp is back to normal (and his symptoms are still mild), we'll probably just move on like everything is back to normal. Meanwhile, we've given zero thought to having the rest of the family test/quarantine.

I'm not trying to draw any broader conclusions from this, just observing the differences compared to if this were Covid. Maybe those differences make sense. Maybe they don't, and we need to start actually treating Covid like the flu. I honestly don't know.

 
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