TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Then multiple that 4 x 25. Then round up. And you will still probably hit the under.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Three suspected cases in VA.
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Insoxicated
You're being smart.
Certain folks dismiss any level of preparedness like you're some Crazy militia extremist sticking your bunker for the zombie apocalypse.
However, the reality is that the odds are pretty good that we all have pretty decent odds of looking at some sort of pandemic or natural-disaster induced disruption of services in our lifetime.
IMO anyone who doesn't stock at LEAST 2 weeks of food (~20-30K cal per person), and water (7-10gal per person) is asking for trouble.
Add in a means/fuel to cook/heat water without services like gas or power... (gas grill, camp stove, sterno cans, fire pit or stove)...And radio/flashlights plus sufficient batteries for a month.
Some means to filter water would be smart (especially if you have time to fill your tubs before water is lost/contaminated).
First aid should include immodium, Advil, Tylenol, etc plus a good bit of antibacterial wash, wipes. Bleach is huge for sterilizing water, disinfecting non food items, etc.
All the supplies would fit in a small tote under your bed. Food, in a corner of your closet. Water on a shelf in the garage. Voila.
Generators and such are an awesome luxury but just that. Small solar panel for charging cell phones would be nice. Hand crank + solar emergency radios that have 2000mah batteries to charge phones are $25.
You've spent $250-300 and one afternoon, and thus helped insure your family against some bad juju.
oh, and don't forget the colloidal silver
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facook
Footballguy
This is by far THE dumbest question I've ever asked....how long would plastic gallons of water stay healthy?
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Insoxicated
Plastic Gallons are probably okay for a while (Years) but aren't the best options. They tend to break down over time.
"Water should be stored in a UV-resistant, food-grade plastic container or in metallized bags. Traditionally, water storage barrels are blue. This color limits light exposure and biological growth (bacteria and algae) and also signifies that what is stored in the container is safe for human consumption (for example, gasoline is stored in red containers).
The safest containers to hold water in are polyethylene-based plastics, or plastics #1, #2, and #4. This type of plastic is good for long-term storage and is BPA-free."
If you're planning on long term refillable storage it would be smart to replace the water in storage every year or so to be on the safe side, but they're likely fine for much longer if stored properly.
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Otis
Footballguy
Hugh Jass said:Oh great. @Mr. Ham in a virus thread at the beginning of information gathering. #Iremember cytokinitestorm
I still have a dozen pallets of colloidal silver in my basement from his hysteria during the swine flu.
I admit I was thinking the same. Like a moth to a flame...
But really starting to wonder myself if this thing is going to end up spreading further. Hope they can get it under control quickly.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Currently sitting at the gate in the International terminal at Hartsfield. Expected to see more masks than I’m seeing. It was a run - see you on the other side boys.
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Insoxicated
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Insoxicated
culdeus
Footballguy
This is someone on my ignore list you quoted. Notebook says psf agitator. I would doubt this has sourcing.
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Insoxicated
The General
Footballguy
I'm traveling today to Mexico.
Never considered wearing a mask, wiping down the tray, use antibacterial etc. Have subscribed to the bring it on theory of germs and and pretty much has worked for a decade of intensive travel. Rarely get sick, much less than my office bound co-workers (when I do it's a doozy).
Picked up the wipes and some goo for the hands for this trip. Have cheap masks in the garage and am debating if I bust that out.
tkrull
Footballguy
Wouldn't it be closer to dead / confirmed+suspected? That puts it around 1%.Math(D/CC=Mr)
Now ~1 in 35 it appears.
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Insoxicated
No, because many of the suspected folks don't actually have the 2019-nC0V. Infection rates are calculated using confirmed cases.
matttyl
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
If it's in total darkness the vast majority of time, no. Algae doesn't need a ton of light to grow, though. I'm no scientist, but IMO the only clear containers I would use would be factory sealed ones. Otherwise I would likely increase the cycling rate to every 6mo. That's just me though.
Not an expert... JMHO. Just check it every couple months and if you see algae forming, dump, clean, refill.
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tkrull
Footballguy
That may be, but the denominator is almost certainly larger than just the confirmed cases.
need2know
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
And the amount of people dead/infected is almost certainly larger than what's reported too. That's why we stick to the standard formula, even when things are unfolding. If you'd like to calculate your own personal fatality rate, knock yourself out
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Insoxicated
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
It's actually dead/infected.
So people who are asymptomatic, not going to a doctor or who've recovered at home should be included in the denominator.
If we counted dead/people admitted to the hospital for the flu the baseline # looks a lot different.
krista4
Footballguy
Hey, I’m at SeaTac right now! (My trip to Denver doesn’t sound as good as yours to Mexico.). Haven’t seen a single person in a mask.
The General
Footballguy
I'm on a redeye tonight or I'd meet you for a coffee, Krista.
Thanks for the update. I'm prolly going to stick one in my bag on the small chance things get a little nutty while I'm gone.
Safe travels!
krista4
Footballguy
Taking one along sounds like a good idea. Wish our paths had crossed! Have a great trip.
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Insoxicated
First confirmed death in Beijing.
Jan 8th - Travelled to Wuhan
Week Later (Jan 15th?) : Had fever back in Beijing
Jan 21st - Sought Medical Attention
Jan 22nd - Confirmed 2019-nCoV
Jan 27th - Died of respiratory failure
So from ~Jan 9th until Jan 21st he was roaming around Beijing transmitting the virus unknowingly.
The contagious incubation period of this virus is going to be the kicker... there are likely many of tens of thousands of folks walking around with the disease transmitting it unknowingly right now.
Good times ahead!
Jan 8th - Travelled to Wuhan
Week Later (Jan 15th?) : Had fever back in Beijing
Jan 21st - Sought Medical Attention
Jan 22nd - Confirmed 2019-nCoV
Jan 27th - Died of respiratory failure
So from ~Jan 9th until Jan 21st he was roaming around Beijing transmitting the virus unknowingly.
The contagious incubation period of this virus is going to be the kicker... there are likely many of tens of thousands of folks walking around with the disease transmitting it unknowingly right now.
Good times ahead!
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Insoxicated
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Insoxicated
John's Hopkins Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.
"Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die."
"Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die."
msommer
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
What's really scary is Chinese New Year is this week. Last week was basically the equivalent to the week before Christmas here - huge travel times. Busy airports, train stations, etc. This is the time when Chinese really travel - a lot. If this thing is really that contagious, the rest of the country needs to be on high alert.First confirmed death in Beijing.
Jan 8th - Travelled to Wuhan
Week Later (Jan 15th?) : Had fever back in Beijing
Jan 21st - Sought Medical Attention
Jan 22nd - Confirmed 2019-nCoV
Jan 27th - Died of respiratory failure
So from ~Jan 9th until Jan 21st he was roaming around Beijing transmitting the virus unknowingly.
The contagious incubation period of this virus is going to be the kicker... there are likely many of tens of thousands of folks walking around with the disease transmitting it unknowingly right now.
Good times ahead!
Worst possible time for an outbreak in some of he most densely populated, high traffic areas in the world.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
We've lived through lots of "pandemics" that amounted to not a whole lot -- SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. -- and I'm not one to get too excited over this kind of story. But I do have to admit that China's decision to quarantine a region of 35 million people is like something out of a horror movie and has me paying more attention.
msommer
Footballguy
You forgot to mention that the pathogen they hypothesized was a lot more deadly than what we currently see from Ncov-2019 (also, that study was quoted on the first page of this thread)John's Hopkins Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.
"Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die."
culdeus
Footballguy
Perspective is hard to gain in these situations, I mean is that really alot for China, don't they have a Billion+ alone? That's like us shutting down Omaha or something.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Sure, but it would be a BFD if the CDC literally shut down traffic into and out of Omaha.
Capella
Footballguy
Icon has been nothing but disinformation and hysteria in here. Just skipping right over his posts now to real info.
msommer
Footballguy
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
If we survived Ebola, I’m not too worried about this one.
msommer
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Why do these pandemics always start over in the China area of the world?
That one guy
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
shader
Footballguy
A guy who I know very well lived in China for over 5 years. He lives here now, and we were talking about this yesterday.
He lived far from Wuhan and said the people he knows are all fine.
But he said one thing that, while we all know it, really makes you think. He said that you literally cannot believe a single word that comes from the government.
The funny thing is that all the people who are trying to calculate death rates and figure out how contagious this thing is, are doing so on the back of Chinese stats, all of which are likely false.
He lived far from Wuhan and said the people he knows are all fine.
But he said one thing that, while we all know it, really makes you think. He said that you literally cannot believe a single word that comes from the government.
The funny thing is that all the people who are trying to calculate death rates and figure out how contagious this thing is, are doing so on the back of Chinese stats, all of which are likely false.
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