*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[IvanKaramazov]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

actually ran across this one this weekend, somewhat relevant to the discussion above...

Study Shows Lack of Link Between High BMI and COVID Deaths

This is the Weight and Healthcare newsletter! If you like what you are reading, please consider subscribing and/or sharing! In the early days of the pandemic studies were rushed out and highlighted in the media claiming that higher-weight people were at higher risk of COVID death. I wrote about...

weightandhealthcare.substack.com

They sought to answer two questions with their UR (umbrella review):​

​

1. What is the quality and certainty of evidence on the association between obesity and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2?​

​

2. What is the magnitude of the association between obesity and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 demonstrated by SR-MAs (systematic review using meta-analyses) ​

​

They reviewed 24 SR-MAs from multiple countries. Ultimately they found that, while most SR-MAs did show an association between being higher weight and COVID mortality, there were serious questions as to the quality of the research that led to those conclusions.​

​

They found that “most SR-MAs had critically low quality, and…the certainty of the evidence was very low.” In fact, in terms of certainty of evidence, 21 of the 24 SR-MAs were classified as “very low.” In terms of quality, 66.7% of the SR-MAs were “critically low quality,” and 29.2% were “low” quality. Only one of the included SR-MAs reached the “moderate” quality level and it DID NOT find a significant link between being higher-weight and COVID mortality.​

ETA: Study here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9381948/

 

[The Commish]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

Man, that list of "highlights" is pretty awful
The link to breakouts by state at the top of the page is pretty interesting as well. I knew to scroll down close to the bottom to find my state. We did it! smh

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

Speaking of the healthcare industry in this country, a friend of mine's father is in the hospital with covid-pneumonia. The issue is that he went to the hospital over a week ago with certain problems. He was admitted and stayed for 2-3 nights. They ran all of these tests for stroke and other things, then sent him home. They never tested him for covid while he was there. Now it is too late for paxlovid and he has weakened immune system due to cancer.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

Speaking of the healthcare industry in this country, a friend of mine's father is in the hospital with covid-pneumonia. The issue is that he went to the hospital over a week ago with certain problems. He was admitted and stayed for 2-3 nights. They ran all of these tests for stroke and other things, then sent him home. They never tested him for covid while he was there. Now it is too late for paxlovid and he has weakened immune system due to cancer.

Really sorry to hear. Sending good thoughts his way.

When I was admitted to the hospital last summer for non-Covid reasons, they tested me as soon as I got there, then I think one more time the following day. We wanted them to keep testing (I had a pulmonary embolism, so I was particularly concerned with anything that might cause further clotting) but my wife had to fight to get them to do it. Maybe the protocols have changed in the past eight months, or maybe your friend's hospital handles things differently, but I'm genuinely surprised a hospital wouldn't be testing high-risk patients

 

[Terminalxylem]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Meh, obesity increases risk of death from covid ~30%, or less. Meanwhile, advanced age is the biggest risk factor for dying from covid. You know what Japan has a lot more than us, besides masks and vaccines per capita? Really old people.

Strictly speaking, you’re correct: we’re a lot less healthy than people in Southeast Asia. But our covid death rate is 5-6X those countries. Even in the US, you’re about three times more likely to die of covid in the worst vs. best states. While those numbers are certainly multifactorial, too, I suspect behavior accounts for a lot more of the differences than we’d like to admit.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

The Commonwealth Fund is really useful to gauge how terrible our healthcare system is - their Mirror, Mirror series in particular.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Meh, obesity increases risk of death from covid ~30%, or less. Meanwhile, advanced age is the biggest risk factor for dying from covid. You know what Japan has a lot more than us, besides masks and vaccines per capita? Really old people.

Strictly speaking, you’re correct: we’re a lot less healthy than people in Southeast Asia. But our covid death rate is 5-6X those countries. Even in the US, you’re about three times more likely to die of covid in the worst vs. best states. While those numbers are certainly multifactorial, too, I suspect behavior accounts for a lot more of the differences than we’d like to admit.

Good point. I recall this article from Sept. 2021 arguing that our response was vastly underemphasizing the role that age plays in Covid outcomes. And that goes for both ends of the spectrum. We've spent a lot of time (justifiably) criticizing the decision to close schools, given the risk children faced relative to the harm of remote learning, but we also vastly underperformed when it came to vaccinating -- or more specifically, boosting -- our elderly

 

[The Commish]

Don’t disagree with you on the US, but I also imagine there’s a strong Reverse Lake Wobegon Effect, where people are more likely to rate their own country’s performance as below average. Covid was an awful experience for just about every person in the world, so they’re likely to focus on the things their government did that contributed in any way to that awfulness

I’m using our deaths/million and vaccine coverage as metrics (correlated, I’m sure) - we look terrible in comparison to both Japan and SoKo.

Not disagreeing, but we need for somebody to do this analysis controlling for baseline health. People in Japan and Korea are generally healthier than most Americans, and they're nowhere near as obese. We know that mattered, probably a lot when it comes to excess deaths. That's not to say that policy decisions didn't matter too, just that we would have expected Japan to do better than the US because almost no matter what because the Japanese aren't all carrying around an extra 50 pounds that they don't need.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with my "performance above expectation" idea. I also think social cohesion plays a huge role. In certain regions (Asia, Scandinavia) there's far more acceptance of the idea that you're all in this together, or that if the government suggests you do something, you go along with it rather than posting YouTube videos of yourself flaunting the recommendations. It seems intuitive that would lead to better outcomes, although I have no idea if there's data to back that up. And of course there was Asia's previous experience with SARS, which was still fresh in lots of people's minds

Then again, the Japanese government came out early during the pandemic and recommended the "Three Cs" -- avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- that IMO is way more effective messaging than the "stand six feet apart, wash your hands for 20 seconds and, um, check back with us for the current recommendations regarding masks" line we had here.

Like I said, probably impossible to tease out the inherent societal characteristics from the actions of the government

Interesting Link

The first thing we need to stop pretending we are something we aren't. We ARE unhealthy. We ARE one of the worst when it comes to ROI on healthcare etc. It's amazing to read this link realizing we have more resources than just about any other country in the world and we are still in bad bad shape.

The Commonwealth Fund is really useful to gauge how terrible our healthcare system is - their Mirror, Mirror series in particular.

Yeah....not sure how I stumbled across them, but I've been looking through their site. It's pretty good even if it's delivering news we don't want to hear.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Interesting comparison of how countries managed COVID-19, data based on excess deaths

"Three years after the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 to be a pandemic, we finally have reason to celebrate: Global deaths from the virus have dipped below 1,000 people per day for the first time since March 2020. But with almost 7 million dead, we must figure out a way to do better next time. And there will be a next time.
Bloomberg Opinion assessed countries by excess deaths, a measure of actual deaths compared to expected deaths during a given period. It’s considered the most objective metric, because it doesn’t rely on access to tests (which might be unequal) or judgment calls (did Covid really kill this person, or was it a heart attack?).
Then we distilled the list down to seven with strong lessons for the next pandemic."

This type of analysis seems useful as it relies on excess deaths as a metric, and provides some reasonable take-aways for what worked and did not work during the pandemic.

 

[The Commish]

Interesting comparison of how countries managed COVID-19, data based on excess deaths

"Three years after the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 to be a pandemic, we finally have reason to celebrate: Global deaths from the virus have dipped below 1,000 people per day for the first time since March 2020. But with almost 7 million dead, we must figure out a way to do better next time. And there will be a next time.
Bloomberg Opinion assessed countries by excess deaths, a measure of actual deaths compared to expected deaths during a given period. It’s considered the most objective metric, because it doesn’t rely on access to tests (which might be unequal) or judgment calls (did Covid really kill this person, or was it a heart attack?).
Then we distilled the list down to seven with strong lessons for the next pandemic."

This type of analysis seems useful as it relies on excess deaths as a metric, and provides some reasonable take-aways for what worked and did not work during the pandemic.

Interesting read thanks!

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Interesting comparison of how countries managed COVID-19, data based on excess deaths

"Three years after the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 to be a pandemic, we finally have reason to celebrate: Global deaths from the virus have dipped below 1,000 people per day for the first time since March 2020. But with almost 7 million dead, we must figure out a way to do better next time. And there will be a next time.
Bloomberg Opinion assessed countries by excess deaths, a measure of actual deaths compared to expected deaths during a given period. It’s considered the most objective metric, because it doesn’t rely on access to tests (which might be unequal) or judgment calls (did Covid really kill this person, or was it a heart attack?).
Then we distilled the list down to seven with strong lessons for the next pandemic."

This type of analysis seems useful as it relies on excess deaths as a metric, and provides some reasonable take-aways for what worked and did not work during the pandemic.

Super interesting, and supports my theory that everyone can point to something in their own country that the government screwed up.

Also highlights my pet peeve of declaring that any entity "won" the pandemic. Seven million people have died from this thing, plus all the collateral damage to economies, mental health, etc. If in your jurisdiction they died at a slightly lower rate that's hardly a win

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Data on COVID-19 and Mpox Wastewater Monitoring | Biobot Analytics

Our wastewater intelligence platform monitors the SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV virus concentrations present in wastewater from across the U.S. Click here to take a look.

biobot.io

Wastewater bending back upwards on the national level. More notably, the "low water" mark for this point in time was higher than this timeframe for the previous 2 years combined. You can of course drill down to the regional level and compare different regions. Some are down. Some are way up.

The CDC transmission map is cooling but still over half the US in substantial or high levels of transmission.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Data on COVID-19 and Mpox Wastewater Monitoring | Biobot Analytics

Our wastewater intelligence platform monitors the SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV virus concentrations present in wastewater from across the U.S. Click here to take a look.

biobot.io

Wastewater bending back upwards on the national level. More notably, the "low water" mark for this point in time was higher than this timeframe for the previous 2 years combined. You can of course drill down to the regional level and compare different regions. Some are down. Some are way up.

The CDC transmission map is cooling but still over half the US in substantial or high levels of transmission.

The wastewater data is the type of metric that is most useful going forward, IMO. This is a fairly passive type of measurement, and as long as the data feed continues to populate to the dashboard it should be reliable. The fact that it doesn't rely on people testing themselves and can be measured the same way over time contributes to its reliability as a data point.

Hospitalizations are another "hard metric" that should continue to be useful (again IMO). While these data do rely on manual entry more so than wastewater might, the hospitals in NY state (as an example) have been used to entering this data for over 3 years now, and since it is probably a job responsibility and the dashboard has been stable on a continuous basis, I find it to be a reliable data source.

Hospitalizations in NY state continue to trend at low levels relative to anytime since the onset of monitoring for COVID-19. In my region of the state, there are over 2 million residents, and there are 22 COVID-19 patients in the ICU across 20 hospitals.

NYS Hospitalizations Over Time

 

[LawFitz]

Even the Vax mob now doesn't trust these mRNA experiments...

The fiercest vaccine advocates are starting to admit the truth about the mRNAs

I am as shocked as you are

alexberenson.substack.com

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

COVID vax beats infection for revving up killer cells

A vaccine directed at COVID-19 is much better than natural infection at revving up key immune cells called killer T cells, researchers say.

www.futurity.org

study linked within:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2023.03.005

 

[The Commish]

COVID vax beats infection for revving up killer cells

A vaccine directed at COVID-19 is much better than natural infection at revving up key immune cells called killer T cells, researchers say.

www.futurity.org

study linked within:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2023.03.005

The question around boosters (assuming you've already figured out that vaccines are a net positive) is now and always will be "Does it make sense to put my immune system on alert now based on the conditions being created by the virus now?" It's the question we ask every flu season (at least I do) and now we add COVID to the mix. I mean, that's been the question all along that people should have been asking themselves. As we get fewer and fewer cases and less potent variants, the line becomes more blurred. I haven't had a booster since the first one personally.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

preprint, but it's being shared by some notable sources:
SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Accumulation in the Skull-Meninges-Brain Axis: Potential Implications for Long-Term Neurological Complications in post-COVID-19

Abstract​

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been associated mainly with a range of neurological symptoms, including brain fog and brain tissue loss, raising concerns about the virus's acute and potential chronic impact on the central nervous system. In this study, we utilized mouse models and human post-mortem tissues to investigate the presence and distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the skull-meninges-brain axis. Our results revealed the accumulation of the spike protein in the skull marrow, brain meninges, and brain parenchyma. The injection of the spike protein alone caused cell death in the brain, highlighting a direct effect on brain tissue. Furthermore, we observed the presence of spike protein in the skull of deceased long after their COVID-19 infection, suggesting that the spike's persistence may contribute to long-term neurological symptoms. The spike protein was associated with neutrophil-related pathways and dysregulation of the proteins involved in the PI3K-AKT as well as complement and coagulation pathway. Overall, our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein trafficking from CNS borders into the brain parenchyma and identified differentially regulated pathways may present insights into mechanisms underlying immediate and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 and present diagnostic and therapeutic opportunities.​

full study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.04.535604v1.full.pdf

some breakdown (w/ video) by one of the authors: https://twitter.com/erturklab/status/1643902019088908289

 

[LawFitz]

preprint, but it's being shared by some notable sources:
SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Accumulation in the Skull-Meninges-Brain Axis: Potential Implications for Long-Term Neurological Complications in post-COVID-19

Abstract​

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been associated mainly with a range of neurological symptoms, including brain fog and brain tissue loss, raising concerns about the virus's acute and potential chronic impact on the central nervous system. In this study, we utilized mouse models and human post-mortem tissues to investigate the presence and distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the skull-meninges-brain axis. Our results revealed the accumulation of the spike protein in the skull marrow, brain meninges, and brain parenchyma. The injection of the spike protein alone caused cell death in the brain, highlighting a direct effect on brain tissue. Furthermore, we observed the presence of spike protein in the skull of deceased long after their COVID-19 infection, suggesting that the spike's persistence may contribute to long-term neurological symptoms. The spike protein was associated with neutrophil-related pathways and dysregulation of the proteins involved in the PI3K-AKT as well as complement and coagulation pathway. Overall, our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein trafficking from CNS borders into the brain parenchyma and identified differentially regulated pathways may present insights into mechanisms underlying immediate and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 and present diagnostic and therapeutic opportunities.​

full study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.04.535604v1.full.pdf

some breakdown (w/ video) by one of the authors: https://twitter.com/erturklab/status/1643902019088908289

Spike proteins are the real killers, you say?

And somehow we convinced ourselves it would be a good idea to inject ourselves with genetic modification experiments which quite literally and very factually reprogram our own cells to mass produce spike proteins within our bodies. Who needs wet-lab SARS when you can create it all within! Long Covid and Vaccine Injury Syndrome have the same culprit.

 

[The Commish]

preprint, but it's being shared by some notable sources:
SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Accumulation in the Skull-Meninges-Brain Axis: Potential Implications for Long-Term Neurological Complications in post-COVID-19

Abstract​

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been associated mainly with a range of neurological symptoms, including brain fog and brain tissue loss, raising concerns about the virus's acute and potential chronic impact on the central nervous system. In this study, we utilized mouse models and human post-mortem tissues to investigate the presence and distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the skull-meninges-brain axis. Our results revealed the accumulation of the spike protein in the skull marrow, brain meninges, and brain parenchyma. The injection of the spike protein alone caused cell death in the brain, highlighting a direct effect on brain tissue. Furthermore, we observed the presence of spike protein in the skull of deceased long after their COVID-19 infection, suggesting that the spike's persistence may contribute to long-term neurological symptoms. The spike protein was associated with neutrophil-related pathways and dysregulation of the proteins involved in the PI3K-AKT as well as complement and coagulation pathway. Overall, our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein trafficking from CNS borders into the brain parenchyma and identified differentially regulated pathways may present insights into mechanisms underlying immediate and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 and present diagnostic and therapeutic opportunities.​

full study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.04.535604v1.full.pdf

some breakdown (w/ video) by one of the authors: https://twitter.com/erturklab/status/1643902019088908289

This is exactly why it was important for the vaccines to target the various proteins of the spike itself. Fortunately, the most pronounced proteins haven't changed/disappeared through variant. If that were to happen, it'd be a big problem with effectiveness.

 

[The Commish]

A new area of research seems pretty interesting:

Linking SARS-CoV-2 to the circadian clock - Nature Cell Biology

A study using a multi-organoid platform and state-of-the-art transcriptional profiling identifies potential therapeutic targets against SARS-CoV-2. The authors find that CIART, a gene involved in circadian regulation, promotes SARS-CoV-2 infection by regulating the retinoid X receptor pathway...

www.nature.com

Analysis on existing LONG Covid data collected:

Data-driven analysis to understand long COVID using electronic health records from the RECOVER initiative - Nature Communications

In this study, the authors characterise post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) in two large cohorts based on electronic health records from the USA. They identify a broad range of PASC-related conditions which were only partially replicated across the two cohorts, indicating possible...

www.nature.com

 

[parasaurolophus]

So here's a thought experiment...
Why aren't there studies yet definitely proving that the 20% of the US population who did not receive a single Covid jab are just as likely (or more) to develop Long Covid or to Die Suddenly? We all know very well that the deep pockets of Big Pharma and Big Govt would want nothing more than to show that to be the case. So why haven't they?

Seriously, my guess is that it's because neither of those are real. It would be like doing an academic study on how vaccination affects the likelihood that you'll be attacked by the boogieman.

I'm at about 65/35 that most of what we think of as "long covid" is really just psychosomatic. If you define "long covid" very broadly to include people who have a symptom or two that lingers for a while, that obviously exists in the real world. But it is pretty unlikely to be the case that a significant number of people suffer serious harm. We would be seeing them all over the place by now, and we just don't. I'm also heavily influenced here by the fact that a large number of people are just irrationally afraid of covid -- that type of person is going to be prone to making a mountain out of their infection molehill.

I don't follow the "die suddenly" thing very closely, so I could be getting my facts wrong. But my understanding is that (a) nobody disputes that some young men develop myocarditis as a result of mRNA vaccination and (b) even more people would develop myocarditis as a side-effect from covid. Nearly all medicines have side effects, and the mRNA vaccines are no exception. But they're +EV and it's not close.

I know two people that claim to have long covid. Predicted both would have long covid as soon as I heard they had covid.

That's not a lot, but I am sure we all know people like that.

 

[LawFitz]

I know two people that claim to have long covid. Predicted both would have long covid as soon as I heard they had covid.

We're they jabbed?

 

[Scoresman]

I know someone who got infected last September, still has symptoms and is still testing positive. I don't know if this gets lumped into long COVID. It's nuts to me, but this person has just about every co-morbidity you can think of that makes COVID a risk factor.

 

[The Commish]

I know someone who got infected last September, still has symptoms and is still testing positive. I don't know if this gets lumped into long COVID. It's nuts to me, but this person has just about every co-morbidity you can think of that makes COVID a risk factor.

Yikes...... THAT is a weak immune system. Have a friend whi had his immune system completely wiped out attempting to address his MS and he didn't struggle with it THAT much.

 

[FatMax]

I somehow made it three years without ever getting it. But a week ago Friday, started to get an itchy throat in the evening. Saturday morning, woke up congested and a little bit of a hack. Right about the same time, a coworker texted me that he had just tested positive, so I had a pretty good idea what it was.

My case hasn't been all that bad. If it were four years ago, I would have chalked it up to bad allergies. Just super congested, hacking nasal drainage and an occasional low-key headache. Never had a fever or sore throat, Also, never got into my chest or lungs. I know it presents differently for everyone, but I'm happy my own version wasn't like some others I know. Tested negative for the first time this morning, also, so that's nice.

 

[nirad3]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

 

[Schmeabs]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

 

[gianmarco]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

 

[The Commish]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

 

[PIK95]

I still have brain fog daily, and my lungs never really seemed to have recovered since I had or last year. I am sick way more than I used to he with coughing and all that.

 

[Jobber]

The smell of onions is still very “off” for me. Kind of like a dirty ashtray, but not really. It’s very hard to describe. It started after I caught Delta in October 2021. I lost all taste and smell at the time, and it all came back except for the funky onion issue.

 

[Schmeabs]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

I just assume those folks must have lost a bet

 

[The Commish]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

I just assume those folks must have lost a bet

weird....i spend as much thought on them as I do the people wearing a mask

 

[Schmeabs]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

I just assume those folks must have lost a bet

weird....i spend as much thought on them as I do the people wearing a mask

That is weird

 

[The Commish]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

I just assume those folks must have lost a bet

weird....i spend as much thought on them as I do the people wearing a mask

That is weird

I guess....mom/pops taught me to mind my own business and focus on the things I have control over rather than being a busy body...guess I am lucky?

 

[Schmeabs]

Went to the sleep doc on Friday. As of the Monday before, masks were optional in his office.

I still see people walking around outside with masks on.

I guess to each their own.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just assume they either forgot they still have it on, are trying to cover up a blemish on their face, or just aren't very intelligent.

When I see people walking outside with masks on I just keep doing what I was doing.

What about people with purple shirts on though?

I just assume those folks must have lost a bet

weird....i spend as much thought on them as I do the people wearing a mask

That is weird

I guess....mom/pops taught me to mind my own business and focus on the things I have control over rather than being a busy body...guess I am lucky?

You are the one who originally brought up people wearing purple shirts, not me.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/04/10/operation-warp-speed-successor-project-nextgen/

(also available here: https://archive.md/f4L5N)

writeup about it: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/project-next-gen-the-united-states

 

[Doug B]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/04/10/operation-warp-speed-successor-project-nextgen/

(also available here: https://archive.md/f4L5N)

writeup about it: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/project-next-gen-the-united-states

The first step on a long journey. The general specter of coronavirus pandemics (not merely COVID) is going to require continual research and product development -- and public funding into same.

EDIT: @Terminalxylem , you might be interested in the repeated emphasis on mucosal-immunity vaccines throughout that article. I can only conclude that some researchers can countenance the possibility that mucosal vaccines will work out in the end, even if the path from trials to market is unclear at present.

 

[The Commish]

Consensus is growing around what several of us had discussed as a possibility for why long covid is such a thing. That is, the virus is able to hang out and "colonize" in different areas of the body. We had talked about this many months back, and I was surprised to hear this segment on NPR this morning:

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1169422115/long-covid-may-be-due-the-virus-sticking-around-after-infection-some-researchers

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

For those still scoring at home, there are rumblings of a new recombinant variant (mostly in India at this point from what I can tell, and coming from wastewater data) XBB.1.16, not a child but a sibling of XBB.1.5 (both came from the XBB variant).
The good: none of India's XBB subvariants thus far have really been able to gain a foothold and have fizzled out
The potentially bad: 1.16 seems have an impressive growth %, even compared to 1.5. Also the region showing the majority of the growth of 1.16 is the same region that gifted Delta to the world.

Cobbled this together from several tweet threads. Will try to post some links when I get something that's more readable.

TL;DR Update: CDC has now given 1.16 (affectionately known as Arcturus) it's own category. Prior to this, it was just lumped in with "XBB" general. It's already on it's way to dominance in the U.S.
It does still appear to be causing a surge in India, not sure how their immunity compares to ours as it relates to vaccination combined with Omicron infections. Reports of lots of pink eye associate with this wave in India. I had seen some reports of earlier variants causing that here in the states, so not sure if this is "an increase" in that symptom or not, but something to keep an eye on (no pun intended). ETA: I closed the stupid tab, but at least one of the wastewater regions in India is literally off the top of the chart. Well beyond their BA1 wave.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

‘Arcturus,’ a COVID variant sweeping India, is now in the U.S., the CDC says—and it’s coming in hot. What it means for the future of the pandemic

XBB.1.16, dubbed “Arcturus” by variant trackers, is estimated to be behind 7% of COVID cases in the country this week, according to the CDC's Nowcast, a viral forecast released each Friday by the national public health agency.

fortune.com

 

[The Commish]

Where did all our Ladapo worshippers go? What an "opps" that guy made eh? I'm sure he just missed part of the data.

 

[Doug B]

Where did all our Ladapo worshippers go? What an "opps" that guy made eh? I'm sure he just missed part of the data.

I was wondering ... here's some background reading (the first is an editorial, but it lays out the background):

Florida surgeon general gets caught cherry picking COVID-19 vaccine data | Editorial

A report conveniently left out data that contradicted Joseph Ladapo’s controversial conclusions.

www.tampabay.com

Report: Florida officials cut key data from vaccine study

An analysis that was the basis of a highly criticized recommendation from Florida’s surgeon general cautioning young men against getting the COVID-19 vaccine omitted information that showed catching the virus could increase the risk of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the shot...

apnews.com

US agencies debunk Florida surgeon general's vaccine claims

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — U.S. health agencies have sent a letter to Florida's surgeon general, warning him that his claims about COVID-19 vaccine risks are harmful to the public.

apnews.com

 

[belljr]

Where did all our Ladapo worshippers go? What an "opps" that guy made eh? I'm sure he just missed part of the data.

They lost their drumsticks...

 

[The Commish]

I honestly don't know why UF keeps him on staff. That would be embarrassing to ANY university. UF is well thought of nationally. Doesn't really matter if he was doing it outside the capacity of the school or not. Does it? Like he would do things differently if he had his "professor" hat on? If that's his argument, then the only reason he did this was for political reasons, which is worse.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

For those still scoring at home, there are rumblings of a new recombinant variant (mostly in India at this point from what I can tell, and coming from wastewater data) XBB.1.16, not a child but a sibling of XBB.1.5 (both came from the XBB variant).
The good: none of India's XBB subvariants thus far have really been able to gain a foothold and have fizzled out
The potentially bad: 1.16 seems have an impressive growth %, even compared to 1.5. Also the region showing the majority of the growth of 1.16 is the same region that gifted Delta to the world.

Cobbled this together from several tweet threads. Will try to post some links when I get something that's more readable.

TL;DR Update: CDC has now given 1.16 (affectionately known as Arcturus) it's own category. Prior to this, it was just lumped in with "XBB" general. It's already on it's way to dominance in the U.S.
It does still appear to be causing a surge in India, not sure how their immunity compares to ours as it relates to vaccination combined with Omicron infections. Reports of lots of pink eye associate with this wave in India. I had seen some reports of earlier variants causing that here in the states, so not sure if this is "an increase" in that symptom or not, but something to keep an eye on (no pun intended). ETA: I closed the stupid tab, but at least one of the wastewater regions in India is literally off the top of the chart. Well beyond their BA1 wave.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

‘Arcturus,’ a COVID variant sweeping India, is now in the U.S., the CDC says—and it’s coming in hot. What it means for the future of the pandemic

XBB.1.16, dubbed “Arcturus” by variant trackers, is estimated to be behind 7% of COVID cases in the country this week, according to the CDC's Nowcast, a viral forecast released each Friday by the national public health agency.

fortune.com

So, another Spring Surge coming? I have a conference in Orlando next week. Hopefully I don’t get it and ruin my vacation starting May 12.

 

[Osaurus]

For those still scoring at home, there are rumblings of a new recombinant variant (mostly in India at this point from what I can tell, and coming from wastewater data) XBB.1.16, not a child but a sibling of XBB.1.5 (both came from the XBB variant).
The good: none of India's XBB subvariants thus far have really been able to gain a foothold and have fizzled out
The potentially bad: 1.16 seems have an impressive growth %, even compared to 1.5. Also the region showing the majority of the growth of 1.16 is the same region that gifted Delta to the world.

Cobbled this together from several tweet threads. Will try to post some links when I get something that's more readable.

TL;DR Update: CDC has now given 1.16 (affectionately known as Arcturus) it's own category. Prior to this, it was just lumped in with "XBB" general. It's already on it's way to dominance in the U.S.
It does still appear to be causing a surge in India, not sure how their immunity compares to ours as it relates to vaccination combined with Omicron infections. Reports of lots of pink eye associate with this wave in India. I had seen some reports of earlier variants causing that here in the states, so not sure if this is "an increase" in that symptom or not, but something to keep an eye on (no pun intended). ETA: I closed the stupid tab, but at least one of the wastewater regions in India is literally off the top of the chart. Well beyond their BA1 wave.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

‘Arcturus,’ a COVID variant sweeping India, is now in the U.S., the CDC says—and it’s coming in hot. What it means for the future of the pandemic

XBB.1.16, dubbed “Arcturus” by variant trackers, is estimated to be behind 7% of COVID cases in the country this week, according to the CDC's Nowcast, a viral forecast released each Friday by the national public health agency.

fortune.com

So, another Spring Surge coming? I have a conference in Orlando next week. Hopefully I don’t get it and ruin my vacation starting May 12.

It’s been gone in Florida for years now

 

[Terminalxylem]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/04/10/operation-warp-speed-successor-project-nextgen/

(also available here: https://archive.md/f4L5N)

writeup about it: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/project-next-gen-the-united-states

The first step on a long journey. The general specter of coronavirus pandemics (not merely COVID) is going to require continual research and product development -- and public funding into same.

EDIT: @Terminalxylem , you might be interested in the repeated emphasis on mucosal-immunity vaccines throughout that article. I can only conclude that some researchers can countenance the possibility that mucosal vaccines will work out in the end, even if the path from trials to market is unclear at present.

We have examples of successful mucosal vaccines, but they aren’t great for fast-replicating respiratory RNA viruses. Here’s a summary of a recent workshop on the subject.